titan_uranus

I'll take Sydney seriously if they keep this up. Don't currently rate their wins vs Brisbane (didn't show up in Round 1) or Adelaide (still a bottom 10 side). Having said that, there don't really appear to be too many bad sides this year. North obviously is appalling, as bad as anything we've seen since us in 2013. Essendon looks bad too. But who else is a bottom 4 contender? GWS? Hawthorn? Carlton? They have repeat games against Port Adelaide, West Coast, Gold Coast, us and North. They've still got six interstate trips and a trip to Geelong. Not sure it's the "easiest" at all.

I think there's a hybrid possibility, whereby games are locked in for the entire season but with certain Saturday games eligible to be swapped into the Friday night slot, or the Saturday night slot, something like 2 or so weeks in advance. Largely allows flexibility but then avoids dud games getting prime time slots. As to the Round 7-12 block, our problems are: In Round 8 we play Sydney but we'll have to compete with Richmond v Geelong and the Showdown In Round 9 we play Carlton but Port plays the Dogs, St Kilda plays Geelong and Sydney plays Collingwood In Round 11 we play the Dogs but Collingwood plays Geelong In Round 12 we play Brisbane in Alice Springs, but it's Dreamtime at the G that week too. If we and Brisbane remain OK, would they put that game on a Friday night? Would be great, I think. But as you say, if we win and hopefully look OK doing so this Sunday, we'll give ourselves our best chance of getting good timeslots on FTA. Carlton and Essendon continuing to struggle will help us too, as it should mean they aren't in serious contention for those slots.

A truly excellent post. Under Goodwin we used to bring the spare up to the stoppage when our opponent would drop it into their backline. We'd inevitably win the clearance but regularly turn it over kicking to their spare defender. We can't expect that each week our opponent will leave a spare player behind the ball like St Kilda did, but it's a set up that works for us and it shows me that we're learning how to adapt to our list: as you say, we can afford to be one down at stoppages because of who we send to them. I'd say the Dogs aren't too bad aerially in the forward line with Naughton, Bruce and English dropping down there too Their issue is their backline. They rely on Wood to be a key defender and their other key defenders, Keath and Gardiner, are really average. Their midfield isn't as crowded as it sounds though. Smith plays off half-back and Dunkley outer on the wing to free up space. Bontempelli goes forward too, and is another aerial threat. So they have some flexibility in half their mids that allows them to rotate them through other parts of the ground.

That's the problem, though. Can we trust Melksham to chase, defend, gut run and put his body on the line? His skills are something that will make us better, I agree with that. His ability to nail 45-degree angle passes from the wing through the corridor, and to hit targets on a lead, is essential. But if he can't/won't defend and work hard, he cannot play.

Righto. So you're OK with trading Pickett, May, Lever, Gawn, Viney, Langdon, Salem, Rivers?

Probably advantage them. We're 2-5 at Manuka, and haven't played there since 2017. Against GWS we're 1-2 at the ground, winning in GWS' first season and then losing in 2015 and 2017. GWS is 13-11 at Manuka, but most of the losses were early on. They are 12-3 at the ground since 2015.

It was highlighted by Matthew Lloyd on the AFL website. Showed behind the goals footage showing Gawn pushing back to get in the hole and take intercept marks without a Saints player following him. It's that workrate and endurance that makes Gawn as good as he is.

The Spargo/ANB pressure acts stat is great. But the other stat I took notice of in that article was the 100% TOG stat: Langdon, May and Tomlinson all played 100% of the game. Langdon, a winger, playing 100% of the game. That's insane. I'd love to know if any other mids/wingers are clocking 100% game time in 2021. Having players like them (and Lever I think did it in Round 1) who can stay out on the field all day without compromising their own performance, freeing up the limited rotations to use on those who need it, must surely be some sort of advantage for us (however small).

Nope, it was 51,723.

A lot gets said about his hit outs not converting into clearance dominance. Whilst I'm sure there could be improvement in the Gawn-mid connection at stoppages, Gawn's value is not just hit outs. He has always been a near-elite runner for someone of his size, and the work he does to either get back into the hole in defence or push forward to stretch our opponent's defence is critical. There aren't many rucks who can do all of that alongside him. It's that sort of ground coverage which, added to actual ruckwork, make Gawn so good (and similarly are why Naitanui, Grundy and Goldstein have been good in recent years).

They played two 3.35pm games last year (one was against us). But yes, yesterday was Richmond's first game using a red Sherrin since the 2019 Grand Final (the red Sherrin only gets use for games starting prior to 3pm, so these days only the Saturday 1.45pm and 2.10pm games and Sunday 1.10pm games get it). The red Sherrin barely got used in 2020, with so many night games during the compressed fixture. We only used it twice (which is not common for us given the number of day games we usually get in an ordinary season).

I think our forward line efficiency this year is showing us a few things. The first is that the names on paper are actually reaching more than the sum of their parts: TMac is closer to 2018 than 2020 TMac, Spargo/Pickett/ANB are working together really well and each one has started 2021 better than 2020, and Fritsch is improving in most respects other than set shots. The other thing it's showing me is that we are improving our overall system and ball movement. We're still not nailing all our passes inside 50 but we're trying to get the ball in the right players' hands (e.g. more kicks from Spargo, fewer from, say, Gawn) and we're generating better scoring chains because we're set up better right across the ground. The more we intercept our opponents across half back through May, Lever and Tomlinson, the more we can generate meaningful scoring chains the way we want to and planned to. Agree re: Salem and Hunt. ANB certainly has the aerobic capacity to play the wing, but he's currently doing really well in his forward role. He, Spargo and Pickett are working together in the forward line really well. To be fair, I think Brayshaw is probably doing better on that wing from a defensive perspective than we give him credit for. We don't see a lot of drive through the non-Langdon wing but that may well be exactly what we want. Anyway, maybe the example I gave of the wing isn't the best example, but just as I won't throw the baby out with the bathwater when we eventually lose a game and look bad in the process, I don't think it's fair after two wins to call our previously iffy coaching "phenomenal".

If you were capable of learning lessons, the bolded bit is the key here, and would impact your final line.

I don't know if I'd say the coaching is "phenomenal" (we're still putting Jones and Brayshaw on a wing), but I do agree with you that the way we've generated these two wins has been significant. They weren't both CP/clearance/forward half dominance games, like most of our wins in 2018 were. Indeed, against St Kilda whilst we were +14 in CPs, we broke even in clearances and only had +1 inside 50.

Like with us, judgment should be reserved for at least the first four games for most sides (exceptions: Richmond, North Melbourne). Case in point: Hawthorn started last year 3-1 with wins over Brisbane and Richmond. Finished in the bottom four at 5-12. Sydney's looked good in the first two weeks but Brisbane didn't show up in Round 1 and Adelaide are still a bottom four side, made to look good by Geelong who also didn't turn up in Round 1. That's not to say Sydney isn't a good side this year, it's just too early to say it. You what?! Mate. It's Round 2.

I love happy post-win Demonland, a LOT more than post-loss Demonland, but this is classic. We lose, and it's "shuffling deck chairs", terrible depth, wasting draft picks, no future, etc. We win, and our depth is amazing and our bottom 6 incredible. Tomlinson could win a Brownlow and you wouldn't be entirely convinced by him. His first two games this year have exceeded anything for which you have given him credit.

Hunt was the only played who I thought struggled for a period last night but he improved as it went on and his fourth quarter I thought was excellent. Jones and Jetta IMO played their best games since 2018. Sparrow improved on Round 1 and Jordon continued to stay involved whilst laying 9 tackles. Spargo's the best kick inside 50 we have, and he's adding proper defensive pressure to his game. All that is to say this: I'm not sure there will be any change, even if Hibberd and/or Melksham are fit and ready to go.

6 - Oliver 5 - Salem 4 - Petracca 3 - Pickett 2 - Tomlinson 1 - Gawn

A really great performance, I thought. We should have won by 6+ goals given the way in which we dominated the game for all bar 15 minutes in the second quarter. Oliver, Petracca and Salem were all great, but as others have said, there were a number of vital contributions across the ground. Tomlinson was excellent, and with May, Lever and Salem we are forming a really strong back half. I thought Jetta and Jones played their best games since probably 2018. TMac again provided a reliable forward target too. If that wasn't Pickett's "break out game", it will happen soon. He is starting to put it all together and I think the confidence he is gaining is going to help him improve. Coupled with Spargo and ANB, both of whom are showing strong defensive efforts (Spargo in particular has really lifted that part of his game over the off-season it seems), our forward line is now something that actually resembles a unit that works together. Fritsch could be such a damaging forward if he could kick set shots. He's a tough match up with his blend of pace and marking ability, and he's leading to better parts of the ground than he did last year. Viney's return made us immediately better in the middle, but looked like he fatigued hard through the second half. I thought Hunt struggled in the first half but in the fourth quarter in particular I loved the way he put his body on the line repeatedly when needed. I also liked hearing Goodwin talk about how when St Kilda got their run of goals in the second, our senior players were actively discussing what we needed to do to stop it and turn the momentum back, and then actually went out and did it. Sounds ridiculous to say that as a compliment, given it should be obvious, but for us that's a big improvement. Their ball movement was awful: yes, some of their turnovers were unforced, but (without having been at the ground) I assume much of the issue was our defensive set up and forward half pressure limiting the way they could transition. And yes, they were missing a few (their rucks, Crouch, Hannebery and Geary) but it's not like we're at full strength either. We're now 2-0 having knocked off two sides I see as competitors of ours for a finals spot. We've won both games despite inaccuracy in front of goal and clearly having work to do with basic skill errors (last week it was kicking, this week it was ridiculous dropped marks). I'm pretty happy with that.

Which is ridiculous. The sub shouldn’t be credited with a game if they don’t come on. I guess it’s done for CBA match payment reasons but it’s genuinely stupid to say Chandler “played” last week. And it’s worse for those two kids at Hawthorn and North who were debuted as a sub.

That’s right, if no prior then just has to be an attempt. But Blicavs had prior, taking the player on in the tackle. Arguably didn’t matter as that was possibly a throw too.

That is a disgusting end to that match. Absolutely disgusting. That missed free on Blicavs was a gutless mistake from the umpire. But Geelong’s last goal came from a Selwood duck drawing a free, then an iffy 50m penalty, then another iffy free against Ah Chee. If you ever want to see a game destroyed and decided by umpiring, this was it.

FYI, St Kilda get King and Jones back, dropping Bytel and McKenzie.

In: Viney Out: Harmes Emerg: Baker, HIbberd, Melksham, Petty

Anyone else hate the AFL's change to releasing teams at 6.25pm the night prior to the match? I miss the days of Thursday night teams for all.