titan_uranus

They’re playing out of their skins. They’re sticking marks, getting hands free in tackles, bounces going their way. Lucky to only be two goals down. Need to lift. But the positive is that we have a lot of improvement in us.

30% chance of showers, it's not going to bucket down.

So much this week comes down to stoppages and clearances. We saw last week how important it was that we won centre clearances and limited the Dogs' ability to get clean possession from stoppages. The Lions score heavily from stoppages so we have to do the same. If Neale, Zorko, Lyons and McCluggage get on top, we'll be in trouble, but the converse is equally true for them.

It's way worse though if they hold off until Thursday, it gets worse or at least not better enough, and they're stuck. They have to make a call sooner rather than later and the Vic government can't make a call that soon.

Should have won and had we, we'd have made finals. I've been casting my mind back to the game. Pickett missed a soda handball to Langdon in the square, Bennell missed from 10m out, then in our final foray forward Hannan had Viney open inside 50 but went long, high and to the pocket, missed, went out on the full, then Fritsch gave away 50 by not giving the ball back. Infuriating. Would love to win tomorrow just to feel better about last year.

That may actually happen but we won't know if it's happening until mid/late next week, which is too late to organise and sell tickets. As the HUN article says, they have to make the call soon so that planning and selling can begin. The timing is horrendous but right now the goal is to move it somewhere where we can make some money and claw back some of the $1M+ loss we're going to cop.

Can anyone share a summary of that article? I'm guessing it says something about Viney?

Also missing Cam Rayner and Jarrod Berry, both are best 22. But yes, they are pretty much on par with us in terms of strength of the 22 playing. Most other clubs have more missing than this.

Neale and Lester are significant upgrades on Mathieson and Madden, albeit Neale might be underdone. Brisbane are imposing, but whilst it's true they've won their last 7, all but one of them have been in Queensland, and of those all but one have been at the Gabba. They've had a great fixture run after their shocking opening month. So yes, they've beaten Port and Richmond, but they did so at the Gabba, where they've barely left for two months. They're surely no less beatable than the Dogs were last week.

I'm happy with that call. Really happy to see Sparrow get a game. Interesting emergencies: Baker, Bedford, Bowey and Mitch Brown. M Brown getting into the emergencies but B Brown not.

Showing symptoms on the 25th but not getting tested until the 31st is as wrong as things can get. Too many people in this current outbreak have had symptoms for days before getting tested. It's no wonder exposure sits are over 350.

He's played one fewer game so average goals are 2.4 to 2.5 (Fritsch's favour), but Greene averages 8.6 more disposals per game, 6 more contested possessions, 3.2 more inside 50s and 0.5 more tackles. Agree with most of this - I'd argue Gawn and Petracca are locks. To everyone other than Demonland members they are dominating but possibly we set unreasonably high expectations on them both. They are both having very strong seasons, and that's possibly an understatement. May's not having the consistently good season that Lever is having and there are probably others who have had a bit more consistency (e.g. maybe Weitering or Moore). As for TMac, I'm loving his season but I'd definitely have Hawkins, Naughton and Darling ahead of him, and I'd add Ben King to that mix.

Firstly, the AFL likely doesn't want games played in front of empty stadia if there are alternatives available that will result in less of a financial loss. Secondly, although both we and Collingwood have a bye afterwards, there are domino effects all over the place. For example, our following game vs Essendon is only 12 days after Queen's Birthday, which means if that game has to be played interstate, we won't have 14 clear days to quarantine (if that is a government requirement). Collingwood has the same issue, their Round 15 game is scheduled on the Saturday vs Fremantle in Melbourne, but Fremantle is scheduled to be in Perth the previous and following rounds, so if Fremantle can't come to Melbourne then Collingwood will have to go somewhere else, and hence the problem. Now, it's possible (and indeed IMO probable) that by the time these games roll around the situation in Victoria will be better than it is now, but the AFL has to be prepared for it to be worse or at least the same.

Not really, the cases themselves are largely in the northern suburbs, in/around Epping (see here). The exposure sites are spread across the city but many of them are "tier 2" or "tier 3", where the risk of infection is low. Most of the cases we're seeing are close contacts, so people who spend close/significant time with an infected person (living together, working together, in close confines, etc.).

The Adelaide game really was an outlier as to our defence. Adelaide scored 96. Not only are they the only side to put 90+ points up against us, they're also the only side to put up 80+ points against us...and also the only side to put up 75+ points against us. The next highest score we've conceded this year is 73, to both St Kilda and North Melbourne. And then the next two worst scores were 68 to both GWS and Carlton. Which is funny actually as it shows a trend of sorts: those five highest scores against us were all scored by bottom 10 sides. Meanwhile the remaining scores, our lowest, are 48 to Richmond, 54 to Hawthorn, 58 to Sydney and Fremantle, 59 to the Dogs and 60 to Geelong. Maybe highlights a lack of focus against the bottom 10 sides, although given the scores we're conceding are still low (68 and 73, by and large), maybe it's better described as an increased focus against top 8 sides?

I read that on Fox but it was actually 6-3. It was also 8-5 after we had to leave Melbourne, but the first two games were wins in NSW vs Gold Coast and Hawthorn. Once we arrived in Queensland prior to the Brisbane game, we went 6-5, so it wasn't that great (albeit we were mucked around and sent to Adelaide, Alice Springs and Cairns).

Annoyed with Cox not getting nominated off the back of a 9-possession game? Jeepers. Well done Rivers, absolutely deserved after his best game to date.

Yes, and as a result too many set unfairly high expectations on him.

Again, I understand the pessimism, but I think talk of the lockdown taking 6-8 weeks and/or all of winter is unnecessarily pessimistic. We went into lockdown on Thursday when we reported 12 new cases and had 26 active cases. We went into Stage 3 restrictions last year on 7 July 2020, on a day when we reported 191 new cases and had 772 active cases. The situation right now is significantly different to the situation when we entered lockdown last year. That means the prospect of it lasting 6-8 weeks like it did last time is significantly less than it was last year.

He's not a better mark than Gawn, he's arguably no better than TMac. It's also irrelevant because even if he were, those players aren't so bad at marking the ball that the plan is bad. Moreover, the plan doesn't require them to mark it, it requires them to make a contest, and they're doing that absolutely fine.

Two other factors I'd add: Bad luck. Many don't like it or want to admit it, but the outbreak started with a breach of hotel quarantine in SA. That person could have gone anywhere in the country, but happened to be going to Melbourne. Complacency. It's odd that of all the places in Australia to be complacent, it's the city that spent the longest time in 2020 in lockdown or under restrictions. But I actually wonder whether our comparative struggles last year have made us more complacent during 2021. Maybe subconsciously people took the lack of restrictions in 2021 too far. Certainly it is clear that people were not checking in when they should have been, were not enforcing check ins when they should have been (how many times were you required to show proof of a check in when you went out, or did they tell you a check in from one person in a group was sufficient), were not wearing masks when they should have been, and were not getting tested when they should have been (case in point, one of the positives last week was someone who was symptomatic for a week before their test - my gut tells me that person would have had a test sooner had we been in lockdown, but complacency had set in on account of our comparative freedom).

There were a few reports that Carlton, as the home team, was given a choice for its game this week vs West Coast, and chose the SCG. If that's correct you'd expect we will be given a choice.

Why? You may disagree but there is merit to the argument that is against yours here, that the "any team, anywhere" line sounds good in theory but can bite you in the bum.

They showed some behind the goals footage last night on Fox of Lever's positioning and reading of the play. Sometimes it can all be a bit much, particularly when Matthew Richardson is babbling on about anything as he was with Lever, but in this case I think it's all very much accurate. I think Lever's role in our back half and his leadership back there is critical to our success. A shout out also to May, Petty and Tomlinson though, as their ability to lock down on forwards this year has helped us keep Lever free.

Whilst I'm not against the game being at Manuka, I'm not sure about our "very good recent form". Yes, we beat GWS there, but we hadn't previously won there since 2012 (albeit that was only two consecutive losses). We barely play there so I'm not sure about our familiarity, really.