titan_uranus

Showing symptoms on the 25th but not getting tested until the 31st is as wrong as things can get. Too many people in this current outbreak have had symptoms for days before getting tested. It's no wonder exposure sits are over 350.

He's played one fewer game so average goals are 2.4 to 2.5 (Fritsch's favour), but Greene averages 8.6 more disposals per game, 6 more contested possessions, 3.2 more inside 50s and 0.5 more tackles. Agree with most of this - I'd argue Gawn and Petracca are locks. To everyone other than Demonland members they are dominating but possibly we set unreasonably high expectations on them both. They are both having very strong seasons, and that's possibly an understatement. May's not having the consistently good season that Lever is having and there are probably others who have had a bit more consistency (e.g. maybe Weitering or Moore). As for TMac, I'm loving his season but I'd definitely have Hawkins, Naughton and Darling ahead of him, and I'd add Ben King to that mix.

Firstly, the AFL likely doesn't want games played in front of empty stadia if there are alternatives available that will result in less of a financial loss. Secondly, although both we and Collingwood have a bye afterwards, there are domino effects all over the place. For example, our following game vs Essendon is only 12 days after Queen's Birthday, which means if that game has to be played interstate, we won't have 14 clear days to quarantine (if that is a government requirement). Collingwood has the same issue, their Round 15 game is scheduled on the Saturday vs Fremantle in Melbourne, but Fremantle is scheduled to be in Perth the previous and following rounds, so if Fremantle can't come to Melbourne then Collingwood will have to go somewhere else, and hence the problem. Now, it's possible (and indeed IMO probable) that by the time these games roll around the situation in Victoria will be better than it is now, but the AFL has to be prepared for it to be worse or at least the same.

Not really, the cases themselves are largely in the northern suburbs, in/around Epping (see here). The exposure sites are spread across the city but many of them are "tier 2" or "tier 3", where the risk of infection is low. Most of the cases we're seeing are close contacts, so people who spend close/significant time with an infected person (living together, working together, in close confines, etc.).

The Adelaide game really was an outlier as to our defence. Adelaide scored 96. Not only are they the only side to put 90+ points up against us, they're also the only side to put up 80+ points against us...and also the only side to put up 75+ points against us. The next highest score we've conceded this year is 73, to both St Kilda and North Melbourne. And then the next two worst scores were 68 to both GWS and Carlton. Which is funny actually as it shows a trend of sorts: those five highest scores against us were all scored by bottom 10 sides. Meanwhile the remaining scores, our lowest, are 48 to Richmond, 54 to Hawthorn, 58 to Sydney and Fremantle, 59 to the Dogs and 60 to Geelong. Maybe highlights a lack of focus against the bottom 10 sides, although given the scores we're conceding are still low (68 and 73, by and large), maybe it's better described as an increased focus against top 8 sides?

I read that on Fox but it was actually 6-3. It was also 8-5 after we had to leave Melbourne, but the first two games were wins in NSW vs Gold Coast and Hawthorn. Once we arrived in Queensland prior to the Brisbane game, we went 6-5, so it wasn't that great (albeit we were mucked around and sent to Adelaide, Alice Springs and Cairns).

Annoyed with Cox not getting nominated off the back of a 9-possession game? Jeepers. Well done Rivers, absolutely deserved after his best game to date.

Yes, and as a result too many set unfairly high expectations on him.

Again, I understand the pessimism, but I think talk of the lockdown taking 6-8 weeks and/or all of winter is unnecessarily pessimistic. We went into lockdown on Thursday when we reported 12 new cases and had 26 active cases. We went into Stage 3 restrictions last year on 7 July 2020, on a day when we reported 191 new cases and had 772 active cases. The situation right now is significantly different to the situation when we entered lockdown last year. That means the prospect of it lasting 6-8 weeks like it did last time is significantly less than it was last year.

He's not a better mark than Gawn, he's arguably no better than TMac. It's also irrelevant because even if he were, those players aren't so bad at marking the ball that the plan is bad. Moreover, the plan doesn't require them to mark it, it requires them to make a contest, and they're doing that absolutely fine.

Two other factors I'd add: Bad luck. Many don't like it or want to admit it, but the outbreak started with a breach of hotel quarantine in SA. That person could have gone anywhere in the country, but happened to be going to Melbourne. Complacency. It's odd that of all the places in Australia to be complacent, it's the city that spent the longest time in 2020 in lockdown or under restrictions. But I actually wonder whether our comparative struggles last year have made us more complacent during 2021. Maybe subconsciously people took the lack of restrictions in 2021 too far. Certainly it is clear that people were not checking in when they should have been, were not enforcing check ins when they should have been (how many times were you required to show proof of a check in when you went out, or did they tell you a check in from one person in a group was sufficient), were not wearing masks when they should have been, and were not getting tested when they should have been (case in point, one of the positives last week was someone who was symptomatic for a week before their test - my gut tells me that person would have had a test sooner had we been in lockdown, but complacency had set in on account of our comparative freedom).

There were a few reports that Carlton, as the home team, was given a choice for its game this week vs West Coast, and chose the SCG. If that's correct you'd expect we will be given a choice.

Why? You may disagree but there is merit to the argument that is against yours here, that the "any team, anywhere" line sounds good in theory but can bite you in the bum.

They showed some behind the goals footage last night on Fox of Lever's positioning and reading of the play. Sometimes it can all be a bit much, particularly when Matthew Richardson is babbling on about anything as he was with Lever, but in this case I think it's all very much accurate. I think Lever's role in our back half and his leadership back there is critical to our success. A shout out also to May, Petty and Tomlinson though, as their ability to lock down on forwards this year has helped us keep Lever free.

Whilst I'm not against the game being at Manuka, I'm not sure about our "very good recent form". Yes, we beat GWS there, but we hadn't previously won there since 2012 (albeit that was only two consecutive losses). We barely play there so I'm not sure about our familiarity, really.

Sure. And at the end of the year when all's said and done, we can then look to improve our list.

We're past this now as a club. We don't lack physicality any more, and we're getting it from those who can bring other skills to the side.

It only works in limited situations where there is a triangle of teams who only play each other once for the rest of the season. You've picked one example but I'm not sure how many more there will be, particularly as teams start to play their 5 return games.

You can dislike her if you want, but don't make [censored] up, she reported heavily and insistently on the drugs saga. Daisy isn't a journalist, she's a commentator. Caro isn't a commentator, she's a journalist. They're both excellent at what they do. Caro doesn't "hate" MFC, she's open about being a Richmond fan but she attacks them when she should (e.g. the Shai Bolton nightclub incident, Hardwick's anti-Marvel comments, Hardwick's violence-related comments last year, Stack's nightclub incident last year). It's really remarkable how many MFC fans think that commentators "hate" us, or are out to get us, or actively want us to fail, or whatever.

Seriously why are we discussing the trade/draft period right now, when we're 10-1 at the halfway mark of the 2021 season? if there has ever been a season where we don't have to start thinking about the trade/draft period mid-year, it's this [censored] one!

We're not exactly devoid of marking options up the ground though: Gawn, TMac, Weideman, Jackson, Fritsch. May's our last line of defence. If we turn it over on the kick in, he's back in position to defend. If he's up the ground trying to receive the kick and we lose possession, he's out of position. It makes perfect sense.

Mate, he's given you two points in his previous post: the NT government pays for the game for marketing (i.e. it doesn't matter who shows up in the crowd, what matters is the broadcast showing off Alice Springs) and for entertainment for their own population, who wouldn't get to see AFL games in their own Territory unless the government paid for a game. And if @Rod Grinter Riot Squad is coming across as.a "know it all", that might just be because he's from Alice Springs, and actually knows what is happening in the NT.

Why "probably"? Possibly, sure. But if it was going to spiral, it was going to be the last few days, when people were still registering infections from pre-lockdown, before we'd noticed there was community spread going on. Testing rates across those days have been high, so we're getting as accurate a read on it as we can. Sure, it's possible it gets worse from here, but I don't know how you can argue it's probable. IMO, it's probable it flatlines and/or decreases from here, as the preceding infectious period for new cases now starts to run into the days we were already under restrictions, and then in lockdown.

Agree, I assume the delay is because the hope is we can get into the NT. Another day or two (max) might be the difference, if we get a decent run on numbers in Victoria. If not, then NSW.