titan_uranus

And if you're wondering, had we beaten Hawthorn then the key difference would be that one win would make us much closer to guaranteeing top 4 - Sydney would have to win all three games and make up 13.5% to pass us on percentage. That large percentage buffer over Sydney is useless because of the Hawthorn draw.

I'm not arguing Harmes needs to be as good as Petracca or Oliver, I'm arguing he needs to be better than he is right now. He makes too many mistakes, he turns it over too much as a proportion of his time on ground and ball he wins, and he repeats his mistakes (three set shots all missing to the near side, taking on tacklers and getting caught, not taking the first option, missing targets by foot). We absolutely need defensive mids to complement Petracca and Oliver, and Harmes at his best can be that player, but right now he's a long, long way from his best, and IMO he's not playing well enough. He's talking about the return match, where Greene had 7 disposals, 2 marks and no tackles.

So the status is this: Three more wins guarantees top 2 Two more wins guarantees top 4 One more win is not enough for top 4 unless and until Sydney loses a game (or Port loses twice)

12.2 in the second half to Sydney. They just can't miss, and Essendon can't stop them. Sydney are a huge threat for our top 4 spot. The way they're playing it's hard to see them losing to St Kilda, North or the Gold Coast.

Seeing Franklin play well today really irritates me - he 100% should be suspended and sitting in the stands.

After today Sydney finish with St Kilda, North and Gold Coast. If they win today they'll have won 5 straight against 5 sides better than those three (West Coast, Dogs, GWS, Fremantle, Essendon if they win). They are the threat right now. If they win today we still need another two to be sure of holding them off.

Jordon's shown all year he's capable of working within our side, particularly when we had Harmes in and Viney out. Would be a return to that sort of midfield if we swapped Jordon for Harmes. Otherwise vandenBerg may be a very similar sort of player but at some point we have to put our foot down with Harmes' poor performances. Turnovers need to be in context. Oliver had 35 and Petracca 32, with more disposals comes more turnovers. Oliver had 12 clearances and Petracca 6 (Harmes 3). And Petracca and Oliver were on the park for 89% and 88% of the game respectively, but Harmes only 76%. So he's racking up errors despite getting less of the ball and being on the field for less of the time. And of course, Oliver and Petracca hit the scoreboard but Harmes kick 0.3 from three gettable set shots. Defensively his game was fine, but that applied to the entire side today. But when he picks up the ball Harmes makes too many errors.

Not yet. We still need at least one win to ensure Brisbane can't pass us, and at least two if Sydney beat Essendon (regardless of the result of GWS v Port, too).

Nah not today, @Nasher. A big win does not always mean a flawless 22. I'll happily debate anyone who argues Harmes played well today.

Hawthorn leading Brisbane by 30 halfway through the second. Remember, if Brisbane lose even once for the rest of the year, we only need one more win to ensure they cannot pass us. So if they drop this game and Essendon can get up over Sydney (I can't see either happening but still), then one more win will lock us into top 4.

6 - Oliver 5 - Petracca 4 - Brown 3 - Lever 2 - Jackson 1 - May

If Salem's even remotely sore he should absolutely not play next week - the Eagles game is critical to our season but Salem's fitness for the games beyond it is far more important. Hibberd a more than adequate replacement.

Weid for TMac if injured. Otherwise I'd drop Harmes for Jordon, or vandenBerg even, and I'm no vandenBerg fan. Harmes 4 turnovers and 4 clangers from 76% game time. Just hurts us more, IMO, than he helps us. No other change. Bowey holds his spot over Hibberd for at least one more week.

Disappointing final quarter but we looked absolutely spent, which may well be the result of yesterday. We were 11.5 midway through the second quarter so to finish 18.21 is annoying. Percentage almost certainly irrelevant from here though. Harmes awful, Viney better but not by too much. That aside, heaps to like. Pressure like that beats 17 clubs, not just GC. Oliver dominant, Lever, Petty and May all strong, Bowey looked at home, Brown’s best game, ANB improved, Jackson’s best game, I liked Brayshaw’s defensive work too. A lot to like, despite there being plenty we can improve on.

TMac subbed out with a back injury. Damn.

5.6 is frustrating but they completely flooded our front half so it was always going to get messier. Viney now up to 4 HTB against, by my count. Kicking improved that quarter though. Harmes just does not learn from his mistakes. Loving Brown’s workrate as much as anything. Also loving Petty’s game.

Most likely. Back to back six day breaks into a crucial Geelong game is going to hurt.

Can’t fault much, but Harmes and Viney kill me. Neither has learnt to take the first option and Harmes can’t hit a single target. Really want to see them lift their game, as they should be copping a bake from Goodwin. Loving the forward pressure. Brown’s looked really good and that helps TMac, Fritsch and Jackson get free and hit the scoreboard. Oliver incredible and Lever, Petty and May solid.

Ideally they'd push our game back to the Sunday, but Fremantle v Brisbane is already on the Sunday and they can't bring that forward to Saturday because Brisbane needs 7 days to quarantine. So unless they do a double header at Optus next Sunday, we'll be playing the Monday night. Which isn't ideal, as it will likely mean a six-day break into the Adelaide game the following week, and quite possibly a consecutive six-day break into the Round 23 Geelong game (the AFL may well want that game on a Saturday for TV exposure).

Would have been nice for Adelaide or North to get up, but the more important sides for us to get around are Essendon and Hawthorn.

Lol at some of the comments in this thread, like "the AFL are idiots for scheduling this game in Queensland". Like Victoria hasn't had lockdowns. Or like they haven't been playing with crowds in Queensland for the best part of the season. Or like it wasn't GC's home game. Anyway, add this to the list of COVID disruptions we've had this season.

Before tonight they'd kicked more behinds than goals, including 5.14 three weeks ago vs Geelong.

I just spent 2 minutes Googling 2015 AFL phantom drafts and found the following four, all of which rated Weideman above Mackay: https://www.afl.com.au/news/108630/callum-twomeys-2015-phantom-draft https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/2015/11/23/matt-balmers-2015-phantom-draft/ https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-draft-2015-fox-footys-full-phantom-draft-with-every-pick-predicted/news-story/39143527abf3f9d12cf9f927b5758835 https://www.theroar.com.au/2015/11/15/afl-2015-phantom-draft-top-25/

Only other palatable game is ours, and we'd be on a six-day break from Queensland, which is both tiring and impossible as we need 7 days for quarantine.

Is that season wide or over the last few weeks? I can't think of a match other than last week where it was a serious problem. Last week was an enormously bad outlier (at least it needs to be, otherwise our season is shot). The whole "we've been worked out" thing is IMO rubbish. Teams are changing their game plan to try to bring the ball to ground. The Dogs happen to have the deepest and strongest midfield in the comp, so stoppages are precisely what they should want. Can all other 16 clubs do it as well as them? I might be wrong (hence my asking about the stat you've quoted) but I don't see this as being a fatal flaw.