titan_uranus

There is a significant amount of talk in here about bias and conspiracies and favourability etc. I'd be really interested in as deep an analysis of free kick counts as possible. Why do the Dogs and Eagles, for example, get so many more than their opponents, and why does Richmond concede so many? The two main times a free kick is awarded are tackles and marking contests. As to tackles, most free kicks go to the player with the ball (holding the man, push in the back, high contact, tripping, dangerous tackle) as the tackler only has one option (holding the ball). Similarly in a marking contest we know that the player in front is going to get free kicks for holds, pushes in the back or high contact a lot more than the player behind. Is it really that fanciful to wonder whether the Dogs get more free kicks because, for example, they're first to the ball more often than their opponent, and therefore get more free kicks from bad tackles? Or that their key position players hold front position more often and therefore get free kicks more than other clubs? Similarly with Richmond they've regularly played with aggression in their era of dominance and have pushed the envelope, giving away professional free kicks where needed as well. Is it that surprising then that they concede more frees than they get? I have no data on any of this but it's a topic that is missing from this thread, which focuses solely on incompetence, bias and corruption.

Such bad luck for Hunt. He was one of 12 (I think) players to have played every game to this point, wasn't he? We can cover him I think (Hibberd), but hopefully our season progresses long enough for him to be able to push to get back into the 22.

Well step 1 is to avoid playing them in Adelaide in the first final. That means we either need to win both games, or Port needs to lose one. If we go 2-0, we'll finish 1st. We'll then host Port Adelaide, if they lose to the Dogs in Round 23, or Geelong, if Port beats the Bulldogs (assuming Port, the Dogs and Geelong all win next week). If we go 1-1 and they beat the Dogs and go 2-0, there is a strong chance they finish 2nd and we finish 3rd, which is the worst result we can get at this point I think.

I posted yesterday that we beat West Coast despite May, Lever and Gawn combining for three intercept marks. So hopefully even if Adelaide do go the small forward line and chaos ball option, we've learnt how to adapt. As to the wooden spoon, unfortunately North is 1.5 games behind Adelaide, so North would have to beat Sydney this week for their final round game to be a spoon play off.

Those numbers are definitely more positive than negative. The negative, though, is 5 of the 20 cases are still under investigation as to whether/how they're linked.

I've been thinking about whether we'll see a player or two rested this week. The concern is that with the bye coming up, and the potential for a week off if we win the first final, anyone who gets rested will be having a very stop-start run (will literally be play, week off, play, week off, play, then week off if we win the first final, before the prelim).

I was tired after staying up late watching the game... Neither of them are as bad as Gawn. Spins the ball around, ambles in, hoops out right and then hooks it massively left. Every. Time. At least Fritsch has kicked 39.18 this year and Petracca 22.14. Gawn is 10.14.

I don't think a blanket statement like this is accurate. I think we can be a better team with Melksham in it, when he's on song. But when he doesn't commit defensively, and particularly when Fritsch is also off, we're a worse side, and for large portions of 2019-21 Melksham's defensive work hasn't been good enough.

I agree, although I think we deserve to be cut some flak for last night with the lightning break. But as @DeeSpencer has argued, when we get the ball with a small lead late in the fourth, we seem to think the only option is to wait for a massive pack to form on the boundary and then kick it to that pack. No real short lateral options available, and worryingly we seem to kick to that pack and it spills out into the corridor a lot, not over the boundary line.

Misleading headline in the extreme. Confirmed to have caught it in Melbourne and has been in quarantine whilst infectious.

What sort of approach to his game is this? Is the Jordon passage of play the one where he dropped it on the dive? if so, wasn't that in the final quarter after the break, when the entire 22 was gassed? Ditto the late kick down the line (he wasn't the only player to fluff a late kick, Salem missed one too). Yes he missed a couple of shots, but he kicked three, including two early when the heat was on and we needed to build a buffer. He repeatedly presented an option at both half-back and half-forward and I can only off the top of my head recall one marking contest where he didn't mark it or bring it to ground, and that came from a kick that didn't go to his advantage side. He kicked 3 (more than anyone else), took 7 marks (second-most on the ground and the most for us) of which two were contested (in the wet, don't forget), had 6 score involvements (third-most on the ground, only bettered by ANB and Petracca) and 249 metres gained (our 10th most, more than both Oliver and Jackson). Cherry picking a moment or two where he stuffed up does not substantiate an argument that he's "fighting to say up to the pace of the game", nor that "there's nothing to suggest" that he's playing well.

Current top 8 record against the current top 8: Melbourne: 7-2 Bulldogs: 6-3 Sydney: 5-3 Geelong: 4-4 GWS: 4-5 Brisbane: 3-4 Port Adelaide: 2-5 West Coast: 1-6

Couldn't help yourself, could you. Brown played well last night.

I'm not against rewarding VFL form but this reads as if you're suggesting we give Lockhart the Adelaide game just because they're Adelaide, and then drop him for Hibberd in Round 23? We won't be doing that. We're not messing with form and experimenting with our 22 on the eve of our most important finals series in decades. If Lockhart is the best option outside the 22 to replace Hunt, he gets the spot. If not, Hibberd gets it.

Some have argued that limiting May and Lever's intercept marking is the key to beating us. Well, last night May had 2 and Lever had 1 (and Gawn had 0). The wet will have impacted that, but it's impressive to see that we can play well without those two dominating the air.

Anyone who can access the paywall?

We made the mistake with Melksham, IIRC? In 2019?

Port would have to beat the Dogs at Marvel for this to happen. Port is 2-5 against the top 8, with one of those wins vs GWS (the worst side in the top 8). It's not probable.

Here we go again with the vandenBerg myths. "Professional free kicks"? He [censored] gave West Coast a goal with a ridiculous push in the back when the ball was going over the boundary line. Nothing "professional" about it, it was moronic. Unfortunately he doesn't appear to have improved that aspect of his game. Meanwhile he was only on the ground for 50% of the game but had 6 clangers, our second-most. He doesn't add anywhere near enough to our side to offset his mistakes and what are blatantly unprofessional free kicks. It's insane that he gets praise for that sort of game. If Viney did the same thing he'd be pilloried.

No one placed our 7-2 record against the top 8 "as the pinnacle of our season so far" except you. All I did was note it. You're the one who saw it and blew up. Which speaks volumes of your attitude, one which IMO is horrendous. You're all about the "gold medal", not setting for silver/bronze. We won't win the gold if we don't win H&A games and finish top 4. Last night was a win that secures top 4. It is literally a key step towards the target you say is so important. And again. No one other than you took that post to mean everyone's satisfied with the H&A wins to date.

Would agree with all of that except I'd say: Langdon - good first half Bowey - really, really impressive

My immediate gut reaction is TMac/Weid for vandenBerg (I want the second tall forward back into the side so if TMac's not ready Weid gets the game, and vandenBerg was our 22nd ranked player tonight and I'm happy for a last in-first out principle here). Hibberd for Hunt if Hunt can't play. Other changes to be considered if we need to rest bodies on a tight six day break.

Right. Your first post after the game, other than to bag the umpires, is to say this win means nothing if we don't win the premiership. That's a ripper attitude. And by ripper I mean ridiculous.

I think that was Spargo's fault. He marked the ball and then immediately plays on. I think some are arguing the umpire called play on, which would have been wrong (the kick was more than 15), but I reckon he thought it was touched or something. He handpassed to Sparrow who missed the snap.

Why? We're locked into the top 4 no matter what.