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Who are you tipping this week and what are the best (realistic) results for the Demons?

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It's Game Day and the Dees are deep in the heart of enemy territory as they take on the Lions in Brisbane under the Friday Night Lights at the Gabba. Will the Demon finally be awakened and the season get back on track or will they meekly be sacrificed like lambs to the slaughter?

They’re billing the Brisbane Lions as a sleeping giant — the best team outside the top eight —and based on their form this month they’re a definite contender for September AFL action. Which is not exactly the best of news if you happen to be Melbourne, the visiting team this week up at the Gabba. Even though they are placed ahead of their opponent on the AFL table, and they managed to stave off defeat in their last round victory over North Melbourne, this week’s visitors to the Sunshine State are attracting odds of close to $5.00 to win on sportsbet (I’m not encouraging you to gamble here). This is because the Demons remain at their lowest ebb since the early days of the Covid 19 pandemic and, to make matters worse, they are still haunted by the memory of the most recent encounter between the teams which saw their confidence shattered, their midfield mauled mercilessly. Although the Lions enter the fray as strong fancies to win, it should not be forgotten that they have been flaky in 2024 and the fortress at the Gabba has not been as impregnable as it was in the past. In addition, recent experience also warns against backing the favourite in contests between these two clubs. Brisbane won the 2022 Semi Final at the MCG after they were smashed by the Dees in the final round at the Gabba. When they met in Round 2 of 2023, they were underdogs again, but Max Gawn went down early and the lights of the Gabba went out for the Demons. The Lions were heavily favoured to win the replay later that season but were crushed in the final term. When the teams met at the G this year in Round 5, the Lions were still reeling from an 0 - 3 start to the season while the in-form Demons were almost unbackable having just taken care of business in Adelaide and look what happened! Still, it’s quite a stretch to expect Melbourne to turn things around in its current situation. If the midfield debacle against Brisbane earlier in the season was problematic, then it looks grave now in the absence of Christian Petracca, the missing form of Clayton Oliver and the overall loss of a capacity to control the contest at stoppages and beyond. There has been a little made about the sudden youthful appearance of the Demons’ lineup and that trend continues tomorrow night with the inclusion of a fifth debutant for the season in the form of Andy Moniz-Wakefield. He seems to have the ball on a string at VFL level but will find things harder in this company. While the youthfulness of the team augurs well for the future and is reminiscent of how Collingwood made its way back from the wilderness after playing in a grand final in 2018, in the short term, it means there’s some pain coming. This doesn’t altogether rule out the prospect of a victory for the Demons this week. The team has badly missed the presence of Jake Lever in defence after he hurt his knee early in the game against the Eagles in Perth and his return will have a major effect on the way the team performs. We kept getting assured that Christian Salem was good to go despite being subbed off with knee soreness on Saturday night but he was left out because of the injury. Pity, had he played, the team would have had its best defensive lineup on the field in two months. It still looks solid enough to control the Lions’ big men in attack. While that’s only one of three lines on the ground, it’s a good start but there’s a lot of work to do and what coach Goodwin really needs is for his out of form stars to come out of their shells and perform for four quarters and not three as they did last week. If I recall, this is exactly what happened to such dramatic effect with a few of Brisbane’s stars in their round five meeting earlier this year. However, I must be realistic. A win seems to be a bridge too far the way things have been going lately. The odds of Melbourne overcoming the home team’s momentum of recent weeks are not great and while I think that the Demons can make a fist of things on the road, with a tinge of regret, I’m tipping Brisbane to win by 28 points. THE GAME Brisbane Lions v Melbourne at The Gabba, Friday 28 June 2024 at 7.40pm HEAD TO HEAD * Overall: Brisbane Lions 25 wins Melbourne 30 wins At The Gabba Brisbane Lions 15 wins Melbourne 9 wins Last Five Meetings: Brisbane Lions 3 wins Melbourne 2 wins The Coaches Fagan 5 wins Goodwin 8 wins * does not include Brisbane Bears or Fitzroy games LAST TIME THEY MET Brisbane Lions 12.10.82 defeated Melbourne 8.12.60 at The MCG, Round 5 2024 It was a disaster from very early in the game when the Demons lost Christian Salem through injury. The Demons missed Kozzie Pickett who was out suspended, and they lacked the spark to mount a comeback until the final quarter and, by then, it was too late. THE TEAMS BRISBANE LIONS B D. Zorko, D. Joyce, R. Lester HB C. McKenna, H. Andrews, B. Starcevich C Z. Bailey, C. Rayner, J. Berry HF C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F C. Ah Chee, J. Daniher, L. Morris FOLL O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale I/C W. Ashcroft, K. Lohmann B. Reville, D. Wilmot SUB J. Fletcher EMG S. Brain, D. Fort, D. Robertson IN W. Ashcroft, D. Joyce OUT S. Brain (omitted), J. Payne (foot) MELBOURNE B J. Lever, S. May, J. McVee HB A. Moniz-Wakefield, A. Tomlinson, T. Rivers C A. Neal-Bullen, C. Windsor, K. Tholstrup HF K. Chandler, H. Petty, E. Langdon F K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, J. Van Rooyen FOLL M. Gawn, J. Viney, C. Oliver I/C T. McDonald, T. Sparrow, D. Turner, T. Woewodin SUB K. Brown EMG M. Jefferson, B. Laurie IN J. Lever, A. Moniz-Wakefield, S. Woewodin OUT K. Brown (omitted), B. Howes (omitted), C. Salem (knee) Injury List: Round 16 Jake Lever — knee / available Lachie Hunter — calf / available Marty Hore — calf / 1 week Jake Melksham — knee / 1 - 2 weeks Will Verrall — concussion / 1 - 2 weeks Ben Brown — knee / TBC Charlie Spargo — Achilles / TBC Christian Petracca — spleen / indefinite

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Casey’s season continued to drift into helplessness on Sunday when they lost another home game by a narrow margin, this time six points, in their Round 13 clash with North Melbourne’s VFL combination. The game was in stunning contrast to their last meeting at the same venue when Casey won the VFL Wildcard Match by 101 points. Back then, their standout players were Brodie Grundy and James Jordon who are starring in the AFL with ladder leaders, the Sydney Swans (it turned out to be their last game in the red and blue). Tom McDonald was in fine fettle as was Jimmy Munro who was closing in on retirement. When the tables were turned on Sunday, there were very few constants for the Casey Demons. One was Mitch White, still the skipper, the workhorse with 27 disposals and a well-earned goal: the man who pushed himself to his fullest capacity but who sadly missed his partner-in-crime Munro. The other was former NGA draftee Andy Moniz-Wakefield who kicked four goals in that game but has since been moved down back with the odd run through the middle where he has been dominating but mysteriously, he rarely gets a mention for AFL honours. He did it again this time with his 35 disposals, four marks and three tackles, giving the team every opportunity to score a win. His time must come soon. One improver from that final is forward Matt Jefferson, a youngster whose body was tiring at the end of a long season and who managed a few behinds in the Wildcard Match. This time around, he slotted through four goals, showed up more around the ground and took eight marks. I wouldn’t rush him into the fray at AFL just yet but he’s pushing forward with every week. Will Verrall is much in the same category but also very much a work in progress as an aspiring ruckman. He finished this game concussed. Watch out for both in 2025 with extra weight and another preseason under their belts. North Melbourne had only six AFL listers on that fateful day last year but this time around, the Kangaroos were far better prepared. Apart from the fact that they had greater AFL representation, they were far more rounded on Sunday. And they had two of the first four 2023 AFL draft selections in their ranks and a couple more first rounders to boot. Along with a handy Deakyn Smith who was at Casey last year. The game was close in the first half with the lead changing hands but the Kangaroos gained the momentum in the third term. Casey made a few serious lunges in the final quarter but North was able to hold on strongly and deserved the victory. One of their aces was Dylan Stephens who was subbed on late in the third term at the MCG on Saturday night and picked up 14 possessions in his team’s late revival. He returned to play VFL on Sunday, collected 24 touches and played a key role in ensuring that his team would prevail and prevent a Casey victory. With Melbourne in the running for an AFL finals berth, its substitute was not considered for a similar role at Casey Fields even though he had minimal time on the ground on Saturday night. Kynan Brown must be a certainty to play in Brisbane this week. We can also expect Melbourne will bring a couple of carry over players up north with them so who knows whether the VFL side will be a fullest possible when the team takes on the stand alone Northern Bullants at Genis Street Oval, Preston on Saturday afternoon? It probably doesn’t matter because the finals are now out of reach, as are the Wildcard Matches. CASEY DEMONS 2.5.17 5.8.38 8.8.56 11.11.77 NORTH MELBOURNE VFL 3.5.23 8.6.54 10.10.70 12.11.83 GOALS CASEY DEMONS Jefferson 4 Fullarton Kentfield King Laurie McAdam Szybkowski White NORTH MELBOURNE VFL Hansen Jr 4 Maley Sellers 2 Free Hardeman Harvey Payne BEST MELBOURNE White Moniz-Wakefield Edwards Jefferson Billings Laurie NORTH MELBOURNE VFL Lazzaro Stephenson McKercher Hardeman Stephens Hansen Jr Statistics Jed Adams 5 kicks 5 disposals 2 marks 1 tackle 21 dream team points Jack Billings 13 kicks 8 handballs 21 disposals 3 marks 1 tackle 69 dream team points Tyler Edwards 13 kicks 6 handballs 19 disposals 3 marks 5 tackles 82 dream team points Tom Freeman 11 kicks 3 handballs 14 disposals 5 marks 2 tackles 65 dream team points Tom Fullarton 1 goal 1 behind 5 kicks 6 handballs 11 disposals 3 marks 8 hitouts 48 dream team points Max Gregory 7 kicks 3 handballs 10 disposals 5 marks 3 tackles 55 dream team points Matt Jefferson 4 goals 9 kicks 1 handball 10 disposals 8 marks 1 tackle 81 dream team points Luker Kentfield 1 goal 2 kicks 1 handballs 3 disposals 1 mark 1 tackles 21 dream team points Eddie King 1 goal 3 kicks 3 handballs 6 disposals 2 marks 1 tackle 31 dream team points Bailey Laurie 1 goal 11 kicks 8 handballs 19 disposals 2 marks 5 tackles 67 dream team points Shane McAdam 1 goal 1 behind 4 kicks 4 handballs 8 disposals 2 marks 2 tackles 35 dream team points Andy Moniz-Wakefield 1 behind 22 kicks 13 handballs 35 disposals 4 marks 3 tackles 115 dream team points Ned Moodie 3 kicks 6 handballs 9 disposals 2 tackles 31 dream team points Charlie Peters 5 kicks 7 handballs 12 disposals 1 mark 3 tackles 38 dream team points Josh Schache 1 behind 3 kicks 1 handballs 4 disposals 1 mark 1 tackle 20 dream team points Ollie Sestan 1 kick 5 handballs 6 disposals 4 tackles 29 dream team points Roan Steele 9 kicks 3 handballs 12 disposals 5 marks 4 tackles 61 dream team points Mitch Szybkowski 1 goal 4 kicks 10 handballs 14 disposals 2 marks 2 tackles 53 dream team points Ryan Valentine 4 kicks 1 handball 5 disposals 2 marks 17 dream team points Will Verrall 7 kicks 6 handballs 13 disposals 3 marks 16 hitouts 49 dream team points Mitch White 1 goal 2 behinds 19 kicks 8 handballs 27 disposals 4 marks 9 tackles 131 dream team points Kai Windsor 1 behind 3 kicks 4 handballs 7 disposals 3 marks 27 dream team points Taj Woewodin 2 kicks 5 handballs 7 disposals 1 mark 2 tackles 22 dream team points

Forget the fact that the final margin was only 22 points. This was a complete mauling all over the ground (except possibly in the ruck) and especially at the contest where Brisbane dominated virtually from the opening bounce. Melbourne only gave a yelp after the game was done and dusted. MELBOURNE 2.0.12 2.4.16 3.7.25 8.12.60 BRISBANE LIONS 4.2.26 7.4.46 10.8.68 12.10.82 THE TEAMS MELBOURNE B T. Rivers, S. May, T. McDonald HB B. Howes, J. Lever, J. McVee C E. Langdon, C. Petracca, A. Neal-Bullen HF J. Billings, H. Petty, K. Tholstrop F J. van Rooyen, B. Fritsch, T. Sparrow FOLL M. Gawn J. Viney, C. Oliver. I/C B. Brown, K. Chandler, C. Salem, C. Windsor SUB T. Woewodin EMG B. Laurie, J. Schache, A. Tomlinson BRISBANE LIONS B B. Starcevich, J. Payne, R. Lester HB D. Wilmot, H. Andrews, D. Gardiner C J. Fletcher, Z. Bailey, J. Berry HF C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage F C. Rayner, J. Daniher, D. Zorko FOLL O. Mclnerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale I/C C. Ah Chee, N. Answerth, K. Lohmann, L. McCarthy SUB J. Tunstill EMG D. Fort, J. Lyons, L. Morris