There’s only one way that St Kilda will beat Melbourne on Saturday night and that is if the roof of Marvel Stadium develops a leak from the rain outside (the Bureau of Meteorology predicts a 70% chance of rain).
Under a closed roof, the windless conditions at the venue give the Demons’ forward line their best chance in ages of snapping out of the most massive dose of off the rails scoring yips since Ian Baker-Finch put away his favourite set of clubs and retired from golf.
It’s a well-documented fact that from Rounds 1-9 this season when Melbourne was ranked No. 1 for scoring accuracy, they have plummeted to a No. 18 ranking through rounds 10-16. And all this before the Demons confirmed their best forward Bayley Fritsch will miss an estimated 7-8 weeks with a broken foot which effectively means his season is over even assuming his recovery rate sees him at full fitness at a slightly better rate than Clayton Oliver or Tom McDonald. These players are all vital cogs in the club’s revival.
The thing is that Melbourne is still playing its customary tough, hard brand of pressure football in the air and on the ground in defence and in the middle but when the ball starts zeroing in on that front third of the ground, it automatically finds a player wearing an opposition guernsey or goes through the wrong side of the big sticks.
The saving grace has been that while Demons kicked 5.15 against the Giants, following scores of 8.15, 8.18, and 8.13, most of their recent losses were played in heavy wet conditions and that won’t be the case this week.
The team has been followed around by dark black storm clouds laden with precipitation. It has followed them at home, in Geelong, over to Adelaide a couple of times and even to the country’s normally dry heart. The malaise has virtually eliminated their final two chances altogether and threatens their tenuous hold on a top four spot. They might even drop out of the finals altogether if they continue to miss their targets in front of goal.
Fortunately, the circuit-breaker is now at hand for the game at St Kilda, winners at their last start but by a paltry eight points against the AFL’s most easy to beat side since the days when Dean Bailey and Mark Neeld ruled the roost at Melbourne.
Over the first three quarters, the Saints allowed the Eagles to score 12.2 from 28 inside 50 entries. Now a defence as lousy as that is quite capable of leaking goals even to the wayward Demons on dry ground and I’m eliminating the possibility of a reprise to the days when the sprinkler system was inadvertently left on overnight before a game at the Saints’ old home ground. There are too many comic book heroes at Marvel Stadium to allow that to happen.
I’m tipping Melbourne to hit its targets in the dry conditions at the Docklands and to win by 50 points.
THE GAME
St Kilda v Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on Saturday 8 July 2023 at 7.25pm
HEAD TO HEAD
Overall St Kilda 94 wins Melbourne 124 1 drawn
At Marvel Stadium St Kilda 9 wins Melbourne 6 wins
Past five meetings St Kilda 2 wins Melbourne 3 wins
The Coaches Lyon 0 wins Goodwin 0 wins
THE LAST TIME THEY MET
Melbourne 14.9.93 defeated St Kilda 8.7.55 at The MCG, Round 8, 2022
Ah, what a glorious time it was when the Demons found their men on the forward line and those men kicked truly. Ed Langdon, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca all gathered possessions in the high thirties and Ben Brown and Kozzie Pickett snagged three goals each. Oh, wasn’t that a time?
THE TEAMS
ST KILDA
B Z. Cordy D. Howard C. Wilkie
HB J. Webster M. Windhager N. Wanganeen-Milera
C M. Wood J. Steele S. Ross
HF D. Butler M. Phillipou M. Owens
F A. Caminiti M. King J. Gresham
FOLL R. Marshall B. Crouch J. Sinclair
I/C J. Billings Z. Jones C. Sharman L. Stocker SUB R. Byrnes EMG T. Campbell H. Clark J. Peris
IN J. Billings Z. Cordy Z. Jones
OUT J. Battle (concussion) J. Higgins (knee) B. Hill (knee)
MELBOURNE
B J. Bowey S. May H. Petty
HB C. Salem J. Lever A. Brayshaw
C J. Jordon J. Viney E. Langdon
HF K. Pickett J. Melksham T. Sparrow
F A. Neal-Bullen B. Brown C. Spargo
FOLL M. Gawn C. Petracca T. Rivers
I/C B. Grundy L. Hunter J. McVee T. Woewodin SUB J. Smith EMG K. Chandler J. Harmes J. van Rooyen
IN J. Jordon C. Spargo T. Woewodin
OUT K. Chandler (omitted) B. Fritsch (foot) J. Harmes (omitted)
Injury List: Round 17
Clayton Oliver - Hamstring | Test
Michael Hibberd - Kidney | 2 Weeks
Tom McDonald - Ankle | 4 - 6 Weeks
Bayley Fritsch - Foot | 7 - 8 Weeks
Kye Turner - Groin | TBC
