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An Encouraging Statistic

Accepting Mediocrity
in Melbourne Demons

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I was going to post this in the 'Best in 50 years' thread, but I thought it deserved it's own discussion.

Here's an interesting stat:

AFL Ladder                              Inside 50 Differential Ranking

1) Port Adelaide                       1) Port Adelaide

2) Brisbane                               2) Brisbane

3) Collingwood                        3) Collingwood

4) Richmond                            4) Melbourne

5) Geelong                               5) Richmond

6) St Kilda                                6) Geelong

 

Our forwardline/ midfield connection has been woeful bar the last 2 weeks and has been discussed to death. However, I think those issues have masked just how good we've been in other key areas. Many have rightly pointed out that winning the 'territory battle' in the middle is pointless if your midfielders can't deliver to your forwards. Not exactly groundbreaking news, and Blind Freddy could see that this was the key reason we were getting belted in the early rounds of the year. But it's also a relatively minor problem - clearly, generating more forwardline entries than your opposition is strongly correlated with winning games of footy. We've been doing a hell of a lot right, and in this key area we're mixing it with the best teams in the league - we're 90% of the way to being a bloody good side and premiership contender. The last 2 weeks have been highly encouraging, and it looks as though we might finally be sorting out our issues up forward (albeit against terrible opposition). If we can continue to improve in that area, we'll be charging up the ladder very quickly. Some cause for optimism (always easier after a win).

Go Dees.

 

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    And with a game in hand.

    We just really need to capitalise on every game we dominate out of the middle. With the shortened season, we can't have repeats of the two H&A losses to Geelong in 2018 this year. 

    Given we've got Brisbane this week, a win there will really tell us a lot about where we're at. 

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    I think the key in this statistic is "differential".

    We all know we get a stack of inside 50s. When we're bad, we know we don't score from them.

    But this stat shows that, in addition to getting it inside our 50, we also restrict our opponents from getting it inside their 50. 

    We've seen our defensive zone holding up really well over the last month. When we limit our turnovers, we are defending the ground much better and, as a result, the ball is spending more time closer to our goal than our opponents. The fact that the other 5 teams in the top 6 for this stat are top sides on the ladder shows that is a common trend amongst strong sides, so there is a foundation there.

    Of course, it doesn't matter if we can't score (e.g. vs Geelong) or if we turn it over and let our opponent find an easy way home when they go inside 50 (e.g. vs Richmond).

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    3 hours ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

     

     

    Our forwardline/ midfield connection has been woeful bar the last 2 weeks and has been discussed to death. However, I think those issues have masked just how good we've been in other key areas. Many have rightly pointed out that winning the 'territory battle' in the middle is pointless if your midfielders can't deliver to your forwards. Not exactly groundbreaking news, and Blind Freddy could see that this was the key reason we were getting belted in the early rounds of the year. But it's also a relatively minor problem - clearly, generating more forwardline entries than your opposition is strongly correlated with winning games of footy. We've been doing a hell of a lot right, and in this key area we're mixing it with the best teams in the league - we're 90% of the way to being a bloody good side and premiership contender. The last 2 weeks have been highly encouraging, and it looks as though we might finally be sorting out our issues up forward (albeit against terrible opposition). If we can continue to improve in that area, we'll be charging up the ladder very quickly. Some cause for optimism (always easier after a win).

    Go Dees.

     

    With respect, No .... No its not.

    It is a huge problem for us, and has been for a long time. Even Goodwin could have fixed it by now if it was only a relatively minor problem.

    The last 2 games have given the impression that we might have overcome the issue, but G.C. was hardly a walkover. We struggled to stay in front all day, and only drew away VERY late in the game. On the other hand, the Hawks game was some of the best footy i have seen us play in many years.

    Yes, if you look at the stats (And thanks for posting them) we have one part of the problem seemingly in hand. You wont score much if you dont go I-50 often, and that is something MFC do extremely well. We just have to figure out what to do when the ball crosses over that curved line.

    I hope you are right ofc, we all want to see the Dees start converting our chances as well as the best because when we do MFC are the real deal.

    I remain far from convinced though and will only change my mind when we can regularly beat good teams and not just fellow stragglers.

     

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    59 minutes ago, ding said:

    With respect, No .... No its not.

    It is a huge problem for us, and has been for a long time.

    Perhaps a poor choice of words on my part - I agree that it's a massive problem (last 2 weeks notwithstanding), and not necessarily an easy thing to fix. My point is that this major, very identifiable problem makes it hard to see the things we've been doing well all year. Across the rest of the ground, we aren't just competitive - we're right up there with the best in the comp. If/ when we can sort out the forwardline (and recent signs are encouraging), I think there's some strong evidence that we could be knocking on the door of the top 4 very quickly.

    The forwardline might not be an easy thing to fix, but it's a damn sight easier than fixing glaring weaknesses across the ground, which has been the underlying theme of our team for most of the last 2 decades.

    Time will tell. Brisbane will be a good test.

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    2 hours ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

    Perhaps a poor choice of words on my part - I agree that it's a massive problem (last 2 weeks notwithstanding), and not necessarily an easy thing to fix. My point is that this major, very identifiable problem makes it hard to see the things we've been doing well all year. Across the rest of the ground, we aren't just competitive - we're right up there with the best in the comp. If/ when we can sort out the forwardline (and recent signs are encouraging), I think there's some strong evidence that we could be knocking on the door of the top 4 very quickly.

    The forwardline might not be an easy thing to fix, but it's a damn sight easier than fixing glaring weaknesses across the ground, which has been the underlying theme of our team for most of the last 2 decades.

    Time will tell. Brisbane will be a good test.

    Couldnt agree more.

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    • 8 months later...
    • Author

    Bump.

    Only 4 rounds into 2021, but so far:

    AFL Ladder                              Inside 50 Differential Ranking

    1) Bulldogs                              1) Bulldogs

    2) Melbourne                          2) Melbourne

    3) Sydney                                3) Port Adelaide

    4) Port Adelaide                    4) Swans

     

    Above all else, the territory battle is what decides games. The fact that we are beginning to capitalize on our midfield dominance, despite missing our best 2 key position forwards is immensely encouraging.

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    leading the comp for tackling and tackles inside 50 helps too. we are last for disposal efficiency, amazingly...

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    16 minutes ago, Allen Jakovich said:

    leading the comp for tackling and tackles inside 50 helps too. we are last for disposal efficiency, amazingly...

    Yep harks back in some ways to 2018 plenty of grunt but just lack8ng polish! If this improves..... look out

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    10 hours ago, Allen Jakovich said:

    leading the comp for tackling and tackles inside 50 helps too. we are last for disposal efficiency, amazingly...

    Yep - no doubt that's our biggest area of improvement. Our forwardline is effectively laying twice as many tackles as last year - even allowing for the longer quarters, that is huge. 

    Tackles per game:

      2020 2021
    TMac 1.7 3.2
    Kosi 2.5 3.8
    ANB 2.3 3.8
    Spargo 1.5 4.5
    Fritsch 1.1 2
    LJ 1.3 1.8

     

    The disposal efficiency stat is pretty misleading though. On the weekend we went at 63.8%; Geelong went at 69.3%. 

    Disposal efficiency is always going to be much lower in the attacking half of the ground. Don't read too much into it.

     

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