Monkey Business

[Macca 16,967]

10 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah im agreeing with that. An anchor leg (if there is such a thing) and a few slightly more exotic legs and the value is there.

I had another strange one on the weekend.  Had a 5 leg multi with our selections. The first leg Harlem was scratched and the multi was worth 49/1 (boosted). The subsequent 3 legs got up, going into a football match the next day. Ladbrocks had the pay out listed as 10/1? A quick mathematical calculation said, i still had 17/1. I figured they would slice out the boosted element, which they did, and Harlem of course. But that still left 4 good legs. I made an inquiry and young chap on the phone quickly did the same calculation and said he agreed. He rang his boss and came back with the other races had scratchings in them so the original (fixed) prices were no longer valid. One example was your pick at 4/1 was adjusted to about 2.40.

In the end the footy leg (my anchor) was Hawthorn win. In the end i couldnt figure out which was worse, the scratchings or the 8 goals the doggies kicked in the last quarter to come back from 30 pts down at 3/4 time!

So the lesson to be learnt is that the price on your multi ticket (where horses are involved) may not be the price you take home at the end of the day.

My answer is to go overnight in a multi or take an early double as part of a treble.

For instance,  at Meydan (Dubai) I had Cross Counter & Almond Eye in a double (both horses won so I won with combined odds of 5-1) but I also did a treble with both horses along with Rey De Oro in a later race ... Rey De Oro didn't win so I missed on the treble but I did get the earlier double - and I wasn't tempted to cash-out either because I'd already won on the double. 

Silly me ignored 'Old Persian' in the Rey De Oro race looking for better odds - another lesson learned!

That's how I like to do multi's Wadda ... it's all about getting collects along the way in my book.  I reckon there's some money to be made just doing doubles too.  Again,  we've gone 2 from 3 a number of times already on the MB thread.  And we've often been sitting on 2 from 2 (early) a stack of times on the racing multi. 

Get the early double and then you're playing with house money is what I'm gleaning with the combined multi. 

 

[Macca 16,967]

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[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

22 minutes ago, Macca said:

My answer is to go overnight in a multi or take an early double as part of a treble.

For instance,  at Meydan (Dubai) I had Cross Counter & Almond Eye in a double (both horses won so I won with combined odds of 5-1) but I also did a treble with both horses along with Rey De Oro in a later race ... Rey De Oro didn't win so I missed on the treble but I did get the earlier double - and I wasn't tempted to cash-out either because I'd already won on the double. 

Silly me ignored 'Old Persian' in the Rey De Oro race looking for better odds - another lesson learned!

That's how I like to do multi's Wadda ... it's all about getting collects along the way in my book.  I reckon there's some money to be made just doing doubles too.  Again,  we've gone 2 from 3 a number of times already on the MB thread.  And we've often been sitting on 2 from 2 (early) a stack of times on the racing multi. 

Get the early double and then you're playing with house money is what I'm gleaning with the combined multi. 

 

So are you saying take a double as well as a treble? 2 separate bets sort of thing.

[Macca 16,967]

Just now, Wadda We Sing said:

So are you saying take a double as well as a treble? 2 separate bets sort of thing.

Not always Wadda but the earlier double does take away the temptation to cash out on the treble ... plus, if the earlier double stands out,  why not?  You can divide up your overall outlay accordingly.

It's either that or you put all your eggs in the one basket and then hope for the best ... previously,  I've cashed out and then reloaded - that's an option too unless the cash-out offer is unreasonable. 

I've also noticed that the cash-out offers of late are designed to end up letting the bet ride ... and the cynic in me sees that as a strategy from the bookies.  The counter move is to do the early double and let the treble ride anyway.  Appeals to my percentage punting way of thinking too. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 minutes ago, Macca said:

Not always Wadda but the earlier double does take away the temptation to cash out on the treble ... plus, if the earlier double stands out,  why not?  You can divide up your overall outlay accordingly.

It's either that or you put all your eggs in the one basket and then hope for the best ... previously,  I've cashed out and then reloaded - that's an option too unless the cash-out offer is unreasonable. 

I've also noticed that the cash-out offers of late are designed to end up letting the bet ride ... and the cynic in me sees that as a strategy from the bookies.  The counter move is to do the early double and let the treble ride anyway.  Appeals to my percentage punting way of thinking too. 

Ok got it. Yes the cash outs of late seem smaller than before. I have missed on the last leg something like 5 out of the last 7 multis. So probably need to look at my strategy.

[Macca 16,967]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok got it. Yes the cash outs of late seem smaller than before. I have missed on the last leg something like 5 out of the last 7 multis. So probably need to look at my strategy.

I don't do a lot of multi's anyway Wadda so the earlier double is not really much of a cost factor anyway ... and such is the case with last night's win,  was happy to do the treble only and hope for the best.

But my strategy with the horses is different as it's a real time event ... Harlem being scratched meant that we were only playing for the double anyway.  As previously stated,  there's some science to multi's that needs to be figured out.  I used to get tempted by the big payouts but I now reckon there's other ways to win.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bet:

Italia Serie A Sunday 12am

Parma v Torino (Win) +2.5 match score $3.20

[Macca 16,967]

17 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Best Bet:

Italia Serie A Sunday 12am

Parma v Torino (Win) +2.5 match score $3.20

Game is on in just over 2 hours Wadda ...I haven't even looked at a possible sports bet yet.

Did you think the Torino games was on tomorrow midnight?

I blame daylight saving! (or Jack Watts)

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

Game is on in just over 2 hours Wadda ...I haven't even looked at a possible sports bet yet.

Did you think the Torino games was on tomorrow midnight?

I blame daylight saving! (or Jack Watts)

Oh yeah.....just saw Sunday and 12....carry on..

[Macca 16,967]

Just now, Wadda We Sing said:

Oh yeah.....just saw Sunday and 12....carry on..

Have another go for Sunday evening/Monday morning Wadda but PL tells me I'm going to have to include Torino in some sort of multi bet!

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

11 minutes ago, Macca said:

Have another go for Sunday evening/Monday morning Wadda but PL tells me I'm going to have to include Torino in some sort of multi bet!

 

Haha, my bad sorry. Put em into the Storm then +13pts, thats what i did!

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bet:

Monday 4.30am

Napoli v Genoa Napoli win and +2.5 Match score

 

[Macca 16,967]

11 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Haha, my bad sorry. Put em into the Storm then +13pts, thats what i did!

I usually do a 3pick on English soccer on a Saturday night so I threw in 2 with Torino and got about 30-1

I will get a good laugh if it gets up!  As they say ... nothing ventured,  nothing gained.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

I usually do a 3pick on English soccer on a Saturday night so I threw in 2 with Torino and got about 30-1

I will get a good laugh if it gets up!  As they say ... nothing ventured,  nothing gained.

Nice one Macca, good luck!

I just missed on a 5 leg multi, Had Geelong 1-39/Microhone plc/ Osborne Bulls plc/Brisbane 1-39/Pies v WC either side under 15.5........72/1.

Was 22pts in the end, so just 1 goal out really. But getting closer!

Edited April 6, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,967]

Monday Special

Bundesliga Monday 2.00am

$2.90 Borussia Mönchengladbach Win & +2.5 Goals Match Score vs Werder Bremen

 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Monday Best

Netherlands Eredivisie Monday at 00:45

Vitesse Arnhem v PSV Eindhoven 

PSV Win & Over 2.5 match goals  $2.15

Edited April 7, 2019 by Dee Zephyr

[Macca 16,967]

Here's the 3pick folks ...

 

Serie A Monday 4.30am

Napoli v Genoa - Napoli win and +2.5 Match score $1.95

 

Bundesliga Monday 2.00am

$2.90 Borussia Mönchengladbach Win & +2.5 Goals Match Score vs Werder Bremen

 

Netherlands Eredivisie Monday at 00:45

Vitesse Arnhem v PSV Eindhoven - PSV Win & Over 2.5 match goals  $2.15

 

That should get you a return of around about 14-1 (odds boosted) ... we've got 2 bankers and a value pick in the tri-bet so we're every chance. 

Good luck to all that are playing!

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I got around 13.5/1for our picks so happy with that. Good luck peoples...

[Macca 16,967]

@Wadda We Sing  @Dee Zephyr

3 score draws hey fellas ... 'tis a pity we aren't playing Soccerpools!

Is Soccerpools still a thing? 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

@Wadda We Sing  @Dee Zephyr

3 score draws hey fellas ... 'tis a pity we aren't playing Soccerpools!

Is Soccerpools still a thing? 

I was just thinking about Soccerpools the other day. Entered it many times and somehow was responsible for me becoming a Liverpool supporter.

I discussed this with DZ the other day. if you make your match selection under 2.5 goals, it does actually include the 0-0 draw. (as long as you dont select a team to win).

yes 3 draws....what are the chances huh. In fact all 3 games in the Italia Serie A were all draws as well. Lets hope that means we dont get them for a while!

[Macca 16,967]

4 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I was just thinking about Soccerpools the other day. Entered it many times and somehow was responsible for me becoming a Liverpool supporter.

I discussed this with DZ the other day. if you make your match selection under 2.5 goals, it does actually include the 0-0 draw. (as long as you dont select a team to win).

yes 3 draws....what are the chances huh. In fact all 3 games in the Italia Serie A were all draws as well. Lets hope that means we dont get them for a while!

With 3pick multi's Wadda,  I'd rather go 0 from 3 rather than 2 from 3.  Going close is annoying. 

The same thing can happen (in a way) with footy.  The team can play well but then lose narrowly.  Murphy's Law.  I prepare for all outcomes!

But we did have the 3 favourites winning overnight so it is not like they were pure speculation picks.  As always,  you need a bit of luck. 

A strike rate of 1 win in 8 (with a 3pick multi) would probably end up doubling your total outlay overall.  That's based on getting an average possible collect of 15-1 or thereabouts.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

42 minutes ago, Macca said:

With 3pick multi's Wadda,  I'd rather go 0 from 3 rather than 2 from 3.  Going close is annoying. 

The same thing can happen (in a way) with footy.  The team can play well but then lose narrowly.  Murphy's Law.  I prepare for all outcomes!

But we did have the 3 favourites winning overnight so it is not like they were pure speculation picks.  As always,  you need a bit of luck. 

A strike rate of 1 win in 8 (with a 3pick multi) would probably end up doubling your total outlay overall.  That's based on getting an average possible collect of 15-1 or thereabouts.

Yep, thats what i really agree with. Its like our last collect based on a 10 outlay with a return of 220 or whatever it was means that  if you STICK to your 10 outlay every week, then you can go for 20 odd weeks before you fall behind again. Thats nearly half a year, so its well worth the wait..... deposit, deposit, deposit....withdraw. Thats how i see it anyway.

[Macca 16,967]

3 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yep, thats what i really agree with. Its like our last collect based on a 10 outlay with a return of 220 or whatever it was means that  if you STICK to your 10 outlay every week, then you can go for 20 odd weeks before you fall behind again. Thats nearly half a year, so its well worth the wait..... deposit, deposit, deposit....withdraw. Thats how i see it anyway.

Imagine if the strike rate was 1 in 4 Wadda?

The punter in me thinks it's possible for a 3pick and down the track,  we might just find a way.  Remembering that we only have to come up with 1 choice each.  And it's a 2-horse race. 

There's got to be a way!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

8 hours ago, Macca said:

Imagine if the strike rate was 1 in 4 Wadda?

The punter in me thinks it's possible for a 3pick and down the track,  we might just find a way.  Remembering that we only have to come up with 1 choice each.  And it's a 2-horse race. 

There's got to be a way!

Well thats kinda what i was referring to with the post before, about under -2.5 covering the draw. I was thinking about future choices.Its not often you find a way to cover a draw.

I think a strike rate of 1 in 4 is very possible Macca and ive had times in the past where i have done just that. Perhaps we might have a go at the midweek games as well. Say a Wednesday night when they play Thursday morning our time? Last week there was quite a few.

[Macca 16,967]

18 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Well thats kinda what i was referring to with the post before, about under -2.5 covering the draw. I was thinking about future choices.Its not often you find a way to cover a draw.

I think a strike rate of 1 in 4 is very possible Macca and ive had times in the past where i have done just that. Perhaps we might have a go at the midweek games as well. Say a Wednesday night when they play Thursday morning our time? Last week there was quite a few.

Yeah,  happy to do a midweeker occasionally Wadda ... maybe when there's some big-time sport on like Champions League or NBA,  NHL finals et al.  I like the team pick rather than my own judgement too - just the 1 pick suits as I normally see one choice jumping out at me!

Wednesday into Thursday suits too rather than Tues/Wed.  We could just have a go where we see fit.  The Ice Hockey & NBA finals start soon and both sports have 2 months of playoffs.  And there is still a fair bit of big-time soccer to come.