THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2016 by The Oracle

[MudDogs Gawn Win.. someday 499]

So after the Michael Hibberd Trade ...

What picks do we hold in the draft now?

 

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

5 hours ago, Mud Dogs Gonna Win said:

So after the Michael Hibberd Trade ...

What picks do we hold in the draft now?

 

I'll try to work it out tonight after COB.

[Red and Blue realist 2,051]

6 hours ago, Mud Dogs Gonna Win said:

So after the Michael Hibberd Trade ...

What picks do we hold in the draft now?

 

Picks 57, 59, 84 and 102. I'd say we're looking at only taking 1 or 2 kids then upgrading rookies with the others.

[MudDogs Gawn Win.. someday 499]

5 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Picks 57, 59, 84 and 102. I'd say we're looking at only taking 1 or 2 kids then upgrading rookies with the others.

Yeah nice!

[hardtack 10,537]

My favourite comment re this trade period (from Facebook):

"Richmond lost Vickery.
They're the biggest winners so far this trade period."

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

4 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

I'll try to work it out tonight after COB.

INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER (at 9.00pm on 19 October 2016)

By Club 

Adelaide: 13, 53, 71, 89, 107, 125
Brisbane Lions: 3, 16, 21, 22, 78, 96, 114
Carlton: 5, 25, 45, 58, 81, 99, 117
Collingwood: 28, 47, 65, 83, 101
Essendon: 1, 20, 29, 41, 68, 77, 95, 113
Fremantle: 7, 40, 63, 73, 79, 97, 115
Geelong: 38, 42, 56, 74, 91, 92, 110, 128
Gold Coast: 4, 6, 8, 26, 44, 62, 67, 80, 98, 116
Greater Western Sydney: 2, 15, 31, 37, 51, 55, 60, 69, 109, 127
Hawthorn: 10, 48, 66, 70, 88, 90, 108, 126
Melbourne: 57, 59, 84, 102, 120
North Melbourne: 11, 32, 33, 87, 105, 123
Port Adelaide: 9, 19, 30, 49, 85, 103, 121
Richmond: 24, 27, 64, 82, 100, 118
St Kilda: 23, 36, 50, 86, 104, 122
Sydney Swans: 14, 17, 39, 46, 52, 93, 111, 129
West Coast: 12, 34, 54, 72, 106, 124
Western Bulldogs: 18, 35, 43, 61, 75, 76, 94, 112, 130

By Round

Round 1

1. Essendon
2. Greater Western Sydney
3. Brisbane Lions
4. Gold Coast
5. Carlton
6. Gold Coast
7. Fremantle
8. Gold Coast
9. Port Adelaide
10. Hawthorn
11. North Melbourne
12. West Coast
13. Adelaide
14. Sydney Swans
15. Greater Western Sydney
16. Brisbane Lions
17. Sydney Swans
18. Western Bulldogs
19. Port Adelaide

Round 2

20. Essendon
21. Brisbane Lions
22. Brisbane Lions
23. St Kilda
24. Richmond
25. Carlton
26. Gold Coast
27. Richmond
28. Collingwood
29. Essendon
30. Port Adelaide
31. Greater Western Sydney
32. North Melbourne
33. North Melbourne
34. West Coast
35. Western Bulldogs
36. St Kilda
37. Greater Western Sydney
38. Geelong
39. Sydney Swans
40. Fremantle

Round 3

41. Essendon
42. Geelong
43. Western Bulldogs
44. Gold Coast
45. Carlton
46. Sydney Swans
47. Collingwood
48. Hawthorn
49. Port Adelaide
50. St Kilda
51. Greater Western Sydney
52. Sydney Swans
53. Adelaide
54. West Coast
55. Greater Western Sydney
56. Geelong
57. Melbourne
58. Carlton

Round 4

59. Melbourne
60. Greater Western Sydney
61. Western Bulldogs
62. Gold Coast
63. Fremantle
64. Richmond
65. Collingwood
66. Hawthorn
67. Gold Coast
68. Essendon
69. Greater Western Sydney
70. Hawthorn
71. Adelaide
72. West Coast
73. Fremantle
74. Geelong
75. Western Bulldogs
76. Western Bulldogs

Round 5

77. Essendon
78. Brisbane Lions
79. Fremantle
80. Gold Coast
81. Carlton
82. Richmond
83. Collingwood
84. Melbourne
85. Port Adelaide
86. St Kilda
87. North Melbourne
88. Hawthorn
89. Adelaide
90. Hawthorn
91. Geelong
92. Geelong
93. Sydney Swans
94. Western Bulldogs

Round 6

95. Essendon
96. Brisbane Lions
97. Fremantle
98. Gold Coast
99. Carlton
100. Richmond
101. Collingwood
102. Melbourne
103. Port Adelaide
104. St Kilda
105. North Melbourne
106. West Coast
107. Adelaide
108. Hawthorn
109. Greater Western Sydney
110. Geelong
111. Sydney Swans
112. Western Bulldogs

Round 7

113. Essendon
114. Brisbane Lions
115. Fremantle
116. Gold Coast
117. Carlton
118. Richmond
119. Collingwood
120. Melbourne
121. Port Adelaide
122. St Kilda
123. North Melbourne
124. West Coast
125. Adelaide
126. Hawthorn
127. Greater Western Sydney
128. Geelong
129. Sydney Swans
130. Western Bulldogs

Future Picks (2017 AFL National Draft)

St Kilda have Hawks' 1st round
Carlton have Geelong's 1st round
Brisbane have Port's 1st round
GWS have St Kilda's 2nd round
Gold Coast have Richmond's 2nd
Geelong have Carlton's 2nd round

[Demonland 72,178]

PART THREE - THE KICK OFF by the Oracle

The end of the AFL's annual Free Agency and Trade period always seems to come as a welcome relief. As usual the fans have  seen the activity begin at a snail's pace at the kick off, build to a crescendo after a little over one and a half weeks and end in an eruption of activity in the last few hours. When the dust settled this year, 38 players had moved clubs and 113 draft picks had been exchanged.

The first reaction of many is to ask the question, "did we win?" as many ask every year - 

ANALYSIS: Who won the 2016 trade period?

Trade verdict: How did your club fare during the trade period?

I see that Melbourne's efforts have been given an A- rating by the AFL site and I won't argue with that but my view is that there are deeper reasons for that conclusion. 

First and foremost is that the Demons have retained all of their required players - in the lead up to the trade period they re-signed Jesse Hogan, Dom Tyson and Cam Pedersen and during the trades, the young component of their playing group was maintained intact. 

Secondly, they brought in experience in the form of Jordan Lewis and Michael Hibberd (with Jake Melksham also a virtual recruit for 2017). Pat McKenna is a bit of an unknown quantity but he is said to have an attribute common with the others coming in - the ability to dispose well of the football. Lewis chose the club because he was impressed with the it appears to be heading, a positive and ringing endorsement of the organisation and the playing group.

Another recent addition to the playing list was former basketballer Corey Maynard who joins the highly promising Joel Smith as a Category B rookie.

Thirdly, the cost of the above has been negligible. Melbourne entered the free agency and trade period without its 2016 first round draft pick which was given away to enable the selection of two top ten picks in what was perceived as a stronger draft pool last year. It had as its top four picks, 29, 48, 66 and 84 and comes out with out with 47, 69, 84 and 102 (which it might not need to use). The Demons traded out veteran Lynden Dunn who was a regular at Casey for most of the season. 

In effect therefore, the incoming newcomers cost the club a second round pick in this year's draft. The Demons have retained their full quota of 2017 draft selections. 

The downside of course is that Melbourne will have a late entry into next month's draft but nowhere near as late as Hawthorn which will have to wait for pick 88 which it got in exchange for its best and fairest winner Sam Mitchell.  That state of affairs probably sums up how this year's draft is viewed. 

The Demons will probably delist one more senior list player before the draft and a couple of rookies might also be cut. The opportunity is still there to pick up a delisted free agent but I have my doubts about the quality of the players in the available pool. 

The NAB AFL Draft will be held this year in Sydney on Friday 25 November 25. This will be one event when Melbourne fans can afford to miss the kick off and turn up at half time.

Free Agency and Trade Deals - October 2016

• Tyrone Vickery moves from Richmond to Hawthorn as a restricted free agent
• Daniel Wells moves from North Melbourne to Collingwood as an unrestricted free agent
• Cam McCarthy, pick 7, 34 and 72 move from GWS to Fremantle in exchange for pick 3.
• Brad Hill traded from Hawthorn to Fremantle in exchange for pick 23
• Pick 3 and 16 traded from GWS to Brisbane in exchange for picks 2, 31, 51 and 60.
• Jack Steele moves from GWS to St Kilda in exchange for their 2017 future round two pick
• Sam Mitchell, pick 54 and 72 traded from Hawthorn to West Coast in exchange for pick 52, 70 and 88.
• Tom Mitchell and pick 57 traded from Sydney to Hawthorn in exchange for pick 14 and 52.
• Pick 10 and 68 traded from St Kilda to Hawthorn in exchange for Hawthorn's 2017 future first pick, and this year's pick 23 and 36.
• Paul Ahern traded from GWS to North Melbourne in exchange for pick 69
• Three Way Trade: Gold Coast receive Pearce Hanley and Port Adelaide's pick 67. Port Adelaide receive Brisbane's pick 19 and Gold Coast's pick 30. Brisbane receive Gold Coast's pick 22 and Port Adelaide's future first round pick.
• Jordan Lewis, pick 57 and pick 58 traded from Hawthorn to Melbourne in exchange for pick 48 and 66.
• Joel Hamling, pick 40 and 63 traded from the Western Bulldogs to Fremantle in exchange for pick 35, 43 and 61.
• Michael Hibberd and pick 59 traded to Melbourne in exchange for picks 29 and 68.
• Dion Prestia and pick 24 traded to Richmond in exchange for picks 6 and the club's 2017 future second round pick.
• Toby Nankervis traded from Sydney to Richmond in exchange for pick 46.
Western Bulldogs trade pick 35 and 43 to the Gold Coast in exchange for picks 26 and 80
• Jarrod Witts traded from Collingwood to Gold Coast in exchange for picks 44 and 62
• Nathan Hrovat traded from Western Bulldogs to North Melbourne, with both clubs swapping their 2017 future third and fourth round draft picks.
• Shane Kersten traded from Geelong to Fremantle in exchange for pick 63.
• Zach Tuohy and Carlton's 2017 future second round pick traded from Carlton to Geelong in exchange for Billie Smedts, pick 63 and Geelong's 2017 future first round pick.
• Josh Caddy and pick 56 traded from Geelong to Richmond in exchange for picks 24 and 64
• Sydney trade picks 39 and 52 to GWS in exchange for pick 31
• Jarryd Lyons and pick 71 traded from Adelaide to Gold Coast in exchange for picks 43 and 67.
• Pat McKenna, pick 51 and pick 69 traded from GWS to Melbourne in exchange for picks 57 and 59
• Nathan Vardy traded from Geelong to West Coast in exchange for pick 72
• Travis Cloke traded from Collingwood to Western Bulldogs in exchange for pick 76
• James Stewart traded from GWS to Essendon in exchange for pick 77
• Aaron Black traded from North Melbourne to Geelong for pick 92
• Will Hoskin-Elliott traded from GWS to Collingwood in exchange for GWS' future second-round pick
• Jack Frost, pick 76 and Collingwood's 2017 future third-round selection traded from Collingwood to Brisbane in exchange for Brisbane's 2017 third and fourth round picks.
• Marley Williams traded from Collingwood to North Melbourne in exchange for pick 105
• Lynden Dunn and pick 51 traded from Melbourne to Collingwood in exchange for pick 47
• Koby Stevens, pick 61 and the Western Bulldogs' 2017 fourth pick traded from the Bulldogs to St Kilda in exchange for pick 50 and their 2017 round 5 pick.
• Brett Deledio traded from Richmond to GWS in exchange for GWS' 2017 first and third round picks
• Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett and GWS' future 2017 second round pick traded from GWS to Carlton in exchange for picks 45, 58 and Carlton's future 2017 first round pick
• Rhys Palmer traded from GWS to Carlton in exchange for pick 135
• Jaeger O'Meara traded from Gold Coast to Hawthorn in exchange for pick 10 and a future second-round pick
• Pick 14, 17 and 31 traded from Sydney to Port Adelaide in exchange for picks 9 and 19 and 49
• Pick 48, 66 and 70 traded from Hawthorn to Carlton in exchange for Carlton's 2017 second round pick.

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

So on my count, after today's delistings we are now in equilibrium.

We have three vacancies on our primary list which is exactly where we need to be for the draft.

If someone comes along who is a delisted free agent and we want that player, we would have to delist somebody. I believe (but stand corrected) that everyone on our playing list is now contracted and therefore we would have to negotiate a termination of a contract or delist a player on the understanding that he would be rookied in late November.

We also have two rookie spots available assuming Mitch White and Mitch Wagner are retained as such.