A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,959]

13 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Personally, I didn’t mind Wadda’s suggestion of maybe taking it up a couple of picks.

You backing away from these comments DZ?  Doesn't bother me but again,  unless we're all on the same page,  we're just wasting our own time and everyone else's time.

Anyway,  I'm $370 in front with one go at it.  A tiny bit of creative thinking only by the way.

Edited September 21, 2020 by Macca

[Demonland 72,144]

Just a reminder to keep it friendly guys.

[Macca 16,959]

Might have a tip for Wednesday ... stay tuned!

Edited September 21, 2020 by Macca

[JV7 2,351]

Not that I want to add fuel to the fire but I tend to see that if for instance we throw in 2 choices each there's potentially 10 horses which ones do I choose to go with if I don't want them all ? I feel like the fun in it is we all get the same 6 horses and get a basis to do what we like with it. 

I never put first 4s on and did enjoy the camaraderie of us each picking one and going in it together & for the cost of $10 it's a bit of fun.. Whether someone wants to add their own 5 on top of the 6 or take a tri/exacta/quinella/whatever out of those picks then good luck.

I'll stick with whatever but feel like first crack went well so if it ain't broken why fix it...

Edited September 21, 2020 by JV7

[Macca 16,959]

16 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Not that I want to add fuel to the fire but I tend to see that if for instance we throw in 2 choices each there's potentially 10 horses which ones do I choose to go with if I don't want them all ? I feel like the fun in it is we all get the same 6 horses and get a basis to do what we like with it. 

I never put first 4s on and did enjoy the camaraderie of us each picking one and going in it together & for the cost of $10 it's a bit of fun.. Whether someone wants to add their own 5 on top of the 6 or take a tri/exacta/quinella/whatever out of those picks then good luck.

I'll stick with whatever but feel like first crack went well so if it ain't broken why fix it...

I reckon we have a couple of weeks off so everyone can cool down.

Right now,  there's probably 1 or 2 who won't want to contribute.

Revisit latet.  Maybe

But for what it's worth,  I'm in your camp.

[Macca 16,959]

Wednesday Smokey

Flemington Race 3 No.3 Embolism E\W 6.50 1.90

[Macca 16,959]

The Best Bet concept needs a do-over as well

For 3 years all these short-priced picks have served no purpose other than to contribute to a large multi (which is almost certainly never going to salute)

The shorties don't suit all members of the team. 

Value runners - different story. 

If people here have a need to put on a large multi they could use the value choices with the place dividend as the conduit

In 3 years I have landed plenty of short priced winners but not once has anyone ever commented that my pick won them any money

It has never happened.

So my choice is redundant in advance.  So why should I waste my time?

Same outcome applies to all others with their short-priced best bet. 

In 3 years we have landed a 3 pick multi (when there were only 3 of us) twice.  That's a poor strike rate.

e.g.  did anyone (other than JV) win any money from JV's tip (Probabeel) last weekend? 

So I strongly favour changing things up so we put up some value runners. 

Paying at least $5 is my proposal.

Last week DZ & Gorg put up +$5 chances and it was a step in the right direction.

Most here are small time punters so asking people to put down a bet of $20 or $30 is asking a bit too much in my view.

Lets fix it.

Thoughts?

 

Edited September 22, 2020 by Macca

[Macca 16,959]

Further to the above

There is nothing to stop people putting 2 of the value choices together for a decent paying double.  Even 3 if you're confident

But the 5 or 6 best bets where the choices are more often than not quite short doesn't work.

Again,  a value runner will often be paying $2.00 - $3.00 for the place where you've got 3 chances of saluting rather than just 1 chance (in a multi)

But the bottom line is that a value runner can be bet on outright.  For a decent return.

That's not to say that the shorties can't win.  Of course they can.

But what is their value in this place? 

I'll say it again,  I've probably got 20 or 25 short priced favourites home with my best bets but not once has anyone ever acknowledged that they've won money from any of those tips.

And I am certainly not advocating that we can the idea.  Just change it up I say

Thoughts?

 

Edited September 22, 2020 by Macca

[JV7 2,351]

I have always shared my "best bet" in a sense that when put in a multi with the other 5 or so selections it adds up to a decent pay out if you were to put just $5 on even if these horses ranged from $2 - $5...

For instance my Probabeel selection on the weekend was $3.60 (jumped at $2.50) but people can take that in a multi with the other selections or if your a bigger punter can do is straight out.. I feel there is enough value in the selections from a multi bet point of view ? 

Anyway, I have come and gone on this thread so you guys who have been through it for years & not just around the popular season & put more effort in on how it goes deserve to decide how you want to take it... I've probably put more than my 2 cents worth in anyway. Carry on ?

[Macca 16,959]

1 hour ago, JV7 said:

I have always shared my "best bet" in a sense that when put in a multi with the other 5 or so selections it adds up to a decent pay out if you were to put just $5 on even if these horses ranged from $2 - $5...

For instance my Probabeel selection on the weekend was $3.60 (jumped at $2.50) but people can take that in a multi with the other selections or if your a bigger punter can do is straight out.. I feel there is enough value in the selections from a multi bet point of view ? 

Anyway, I have come and gone on this thread so you guys who have been through it for years & not just around the popular season & put more effort in on how it goes deserve to decide how you want to take it... I've probably put more than my 2 cents worth in anyway. Carry on ?

I started doing 2 leg multi's when there were just the 3 here (with mixed results)

Got a few collects but you need 2 horses to win and you still may only get 6-1 or thereabouts

Where as with a value runner it's just the 1 straight out bet. 

It's just an observation of the history here.

People can obviously do whatever they like but I'd like to think that all of us could entertain the thought of backing another person's best bet.

Does that happen?  I don't reckon it does very often but what happens if someone puts up a 7-1 chance and it wins.  You'd hate to miss out with those odds.

I'm going down the Value best bet path for the Spring but I'm still going to be looking for the class runner (at each-way odds)

And the place dividend with a value runner could be best used in a 2 or 3 pick multi.  Rather than backing the horse for the win ,& the place.

But as previously stated,  a lot of the betting agencies offer money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd.  In that instance,  there's no need to put a place bet on

Edited September 22, 2020 by Macca

[JV7 2,351]

Could we potentially do a "Best Bet" & "Value Bet" of the week...Just a thought.

Only going off my tips since recently returning one of my "Best Bets" the other week was a horse for $5 a place that could have been a value bet for the week... Or like on the weekend I liked Dollar for Dollar which was my F4 pick that may have been my value pick not necessarily "My Best Bet".  

Edited September 22, 2020 by JV7

[Macca 16,959]

19 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Could we potentially do a "Best Bet" & "Value Bet" of the week...Just a thought.

Only going off my tips since recently returning one of my "Best Bets" the other week was a horse for $5 a place that could have been a value bet for the week... Or like on the weekend I liked Dollar for Dollar which was my F4 pick that may have been my value pick not necessarily "My Best Bet".  

The only issue is that we'd then have a possible 10 choices.  And that involves 10 separate races.  12 if Rolling fog is here.  And then there's Biff's 'Roughie'

We may not have many races left to bet on personally!  And we don't want to be betting against each other ... not publicly at least

I'd leave it at 1 pick each but as the day progresses there's nothing wrong with throwing out a few spec choices.  As we've been doing on recent Saturday's. 

By then most have put their bets on and we're in chew-fhe-fat mode.

Best Bet or Best Value?  Either/Or.

Again,  we don't want to over do it and if 6 or 7 different people are involved,  one choice is enough in my view. 

Good suggestion though and it's only my opinion.  I'll go with the majority view

I reckon we could each have another tip on a Wednesday though.  Many of the midweeks step up from here on in as is the case tomorrow with the Derby Trial & Oaks Trial at Flemington.  Country Cup days etc.

You got anything for us tomorrow JV?

 

[JV7 2,351]

18 minutes ago, Macca said:

The only issue is that we'd then have a possible 10 choices.  And that involves 10 separate races.  12 if Rolling fog is here.  And then there's Biff's 'Roughie'

We may not have many races left to bet on personally!  And we don't want to be betting against each other ... not publicly at least

I'd leave it at 1 pick each but as the day progresses there's nothing wrong with throwing out a few spec choices.  As we've been doing on recent Saturday's. 

By then most have put their bets on and we're in chew-fhe-fat mode.

Best Bet or Best Value?  Either/Or.

Again,  we don't want to over do it and if 6 or 7 different people are involved,  one choice is enough in my view. 

Good suggestion though and it's only my opinion.  I'll go with the majority view

I reckon we could each have another tip on a Wednesday though.  Many of the midweeks step up from here on in as is the case tomorrow with the Derby Trial & Oaks Trial at Flemington.  Country Cup days etc.

You got anything for us tomorrow JV?

 

Noting that you have given us a tip in Race 3 but I do like the #4 The Brumby which I've back the last two starts.. Dear I say throw both tips together for an exotic ?

[Macca 16,959]

47 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Noting that you have given us a tip in Race 3 but I do like the #4 The Brumby which I've back the last two starts.. Dear I say throw both tips together for an exotic ?

It's a good race JV ... a few chances too.  'Toyetic' will probably get into the finish as well as your choice (The Brumby)

I prefer it when Oliver is on a swooper but the map has 'Embolism' on the pace.  I reckon it might be midfield though (with cover) I'm banking on Oliver and at 6.50,  it's slightly overs.  Very impressive win at it's only start at Geelong ... in good time too.

Rather than a taking out a place bet or an exotic with any of the 3 aforementioned,  I might take out a 2 or 3 pick 'Place' double/treble with Embolism & 1 or 2 others later in the day.

Promises to be a good day's racing at HQ.

 

Footnote:  Got Oliver & J-Mac on a few value runners as well in 3 other races but I'll keep them under my hat!

Edited September 22, 2020 by Macca

[Macca 16,959]

Adding a bit more interest towards having more than 1 best bet this weekend is that we have 3 big race meetings on 2 different days this weekend ... n.b. The Underwood Stakes Day is on the Saturday this year (not the Sunday)

• Moir Stakes Night (Moonee Valley Friday)
• Golden Rose Day (Rosehill Saturday)
• Underwood Stakes Day (Caulfield Saturday)

So we could all pick out something on the Friday and something else on the Saturday as JV7 has alluded to.  There are 5 black-type races at Moonee Valley with some very good horses running around.  I've already got 2 'Value' runners picked out on each day with one that I'm very confident about

In other news Behemoth is in the Everest.  The slot was secured today ... it's easy to see both Behemoth & Classique Legend flying home but will they be able to catch up with Nature Strip,  Gytrash or the boom sprinter Rothfire

7 runners confirmed ... Nature Strip,  Gytrash,  Classique Legend,  Rothfire,  Tofane,  Farnan & Behemoth

The Moir Stakes is only run over 1000m but we might see 1 or 2 of the runners gain a slot in the Everest as there are still 5 vacancies available

Edited September 22, 2020 by Macca

[Macca 16,959]

Best Bet (Friday)

Moonee Valley Race 7 (Moir Stakes)

No.11 Hanseatic Win/Multi (Place) $17.00/$4.00

[JV7 2,351]

Best Bet Saturday

Caulfield Race 7 #5 - Night Raid WIN $4 

(Very tough to split Night Raid & Instant Celebrity, just think Instant Celeb might give too much of a start to real them in) 

[Macca 16,959]

30 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Best Bet Saturday

Caulfield Race 7 #5 - Night Raid WIN $4 

(Very tough to split Night Raid & Instant Celebrity, just think Instant Celeb might give too much of a start to real them in) 

Yeah I'm looking at an exotic in your race with the 2 horses you mentioned on top.   Maybe a F4 but probably a trifecta.

[Gorgoroth 12,944]

My best bet is Caulfield race 6, 9 - Savannah Cloud -$10 E/W

[Macca 16,959]

'Barocha' sold to HK interests.  Undisclosed amount but apparently an offer too good to refuse

The story is on Racenet.com

I suppose we can still follow the fortunes of the horse much like we have with Beauty Generation,  Mr Stunning and a host of other Oz & NZ bred horses that ended up in HK

Not quite the same but money talks

[JV7 2,351]

Got a tip today at Benella... Race 7 #8

[Gorgoroth 12,944]

On 9/21/2020 at 9:11 PM, Macca said:

Wednesday Smokey

Flemington Race 3 No.3 Embolism E\W 6.50 1.90

Forgot to say, I thought this horse ran well enough, but would possibly be more suited to a slightly longer race, thought it was just winding up.

[Macca 16,959]

18 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Forgot to say, I thought this horse ran well enough, but would possibly be more suited to a slightly longer race, thought it was just winding up.

All the backmarkers couldn't make enough ground.  2 lengths covered 9 horses at the finish.  Hard to get a read but the winner (Poland) might be worth following

Mind you,  the 5th horse was only 0.7 lengths from the winner.

The Valley tonight still rated as a Good4  but it's hosing down out in the deep South East.  Worried about Jungle Edge now because that horse is a swimmer!

 

 

[Gorgoroth 12,944]

15 minutes ago, Macca said:

All the backmarkers couldn't make enough ground.  2 lengths covered 9 horses at the finish.  Hard to get a read but the winner (Poland) might be worth following

Mind you,  the 5th horse was only 0.7 lengths from the winner.

The Valley tonight still rated as a Good4  but it's hosing down out in the deep South East.  Worried about Jungle Edge now because that horse is a swimmer!

 

 

Yep, jungle edge comes into play.

Had snow out at my place, and not a small dusting either.

[Macca 16,959]

Pippie just way too good in the Moir ... a 1000/1100m specialist but she has won twice over 1200m

Might be worth a go in the Everest and would almost certainly get to the lead in that race early.  But they don't get a breather in the Everest and the last 100m - 150m would test her.

Very quick horse though and they couldn't keep up with her tonight.