A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Great you guys got the winners today, well done! See... my spell is doing you guys wonders!!

Happy New Year too all!!

Edited January 1, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,918]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Great you guys got the winners today, well done! See... my spell is doing you guys wonders!!

Happy New Year too all!!

Happy New Year Wadda and the same to all the punters out there including the regulars here in DZ & BM. 

And we kick off the year with a decent card at Flemington today - no rest for the wicked!  Looking forward to seeing how the boom filly 'Enood' runs today - races in 5 minutes actually.  The Standish Hcp & Bagot Hcp are good races too. 

 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Best Bet

Randwick Race 8 Number 4

Heart Conquered $3.00

[Macca 16,918]

Best Bet

Caulfield Race 7 No.10 Creedence $5.00

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Thoughts on the Perth Cup @Macca?

I see El’s stablemate ‘Khartoum’ is hunting Cup glory over in the West. Keeping it safe around $13, although it was tough win last week I just can’t see it winning today but I’m often wrong.

[Macca 16,918]

1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Thoughts on the Perth Cup @Macca?

I see El’s stablemate ‘Khartoum’ is hunting Cup glory over in the West. Keeping it safe around $13, although it was tough win last week I just can’t see it winning today but I’m often wrong.

I've had an exacta in the race DZ and have included the top 3 in the market as well as Cappo D'oro (overs at 25-1?) on top for a bit of value ... also included Khartoum,  Elegant Blast & Perfect Jewel in for 2nd to hopefully boost up the dividend. 

I'm quite confident of getting it but am obviously looking for the right combination.  'Gatting' (which has drawn wide) and 'Action' will probably both be coming from the back so they both might need luck in the running.  By contrast,  'Mississippi Delta' seems to have drawn well in 6.  Should be a good race.  Here's the field

Edited January 5, 2019 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

13 minutes ago, Macca said:

I've had a exacta in the race DZ and have included the top 3 as well as Cappo D'oro (overs at 25-1?) on top for a bit of value ... also included Khartoum,  Elegant Blast & Perfect Jewel in for 2nd to hopefully boost up the dividend. 

I'm quite confident of getting it but am obviously looking for the right combination.  'Gatting' (which has drawn wide) and 'Action' will probably both be coming from the back so they both might need luck in the running.  By contrast,  'Mississippi Delta' seems to have drawn well in 6.  Should be a good race.  Here's the field

Good luck Macca. I’ll be trying my luck later with the exotics in the race. Will definitely have ‘Perfect Jewel’ in there, represents great value. 

Hopefully we will go back to back with our picks. Chose the multiplier with Tab last night and it boosted my odds by x1.05?, adding 63.5 cents to the odds. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

21 hours ago, Macca said:

Best Bet

Caulfield Race 7 No.10 Creedence $5.00

Unlucky there Macca, thought we had it. The Lambo started on the back of the grid and pipped us the last 10 meters. 

[Macca 16,918]

11 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Unlucky there Macca, thought we had it. The Lambo started on the back of the grid and pipped us the last 10 meters. 

I was concerned with Lamborghini DZ and the horse has now beaten Creedence at its last 2 starts. 

Anyway,  'Heart Conquered' salutes ... another winner for you DZ.  You're in good form!  With all the scratchings I'm surprised HC drifted in the market though.

2: 1 - 1 - 0 for the day so our strike rate is slowly but surely improving.

Best Bet Strike Rate

75: 27 - 11 - 10

Australian Group & Listed Races

[Macca 16,918]

7 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Good luck Macca. I’ll be trying my luck later with the exotics in the race. Will definitely have ‘Perfect Jewel’ in there, represents great value. 

Hopefully we will go back to back with our picks. Chose the multiplier with Tab last night and it boosted my odds by x1.05?, adding 63.5 cents to the odds. 

Note to self ... always include all Bob Peters runners in any exotic out of Perth!  Also,  'Star Exhibit' was the 2nd highest rated horse in the race but was only carrying 55kg. 

But fair play to the horse and jockey though (Peter Hall)  Ran down Action and on one of the camera angles there was a look of mild astonishment from Willie Pike as Star Exhibit loomed large!  Can't win 'em all hey DZ!

The Perth Cup kind of closes off the year for me although it starts all over again with the Magic Millions next week.  Always a tricky card but there are some class horses in a number of the fields.  Exacta's only at this time of the year is my preference.  Trying to find straight out winners is very difficult and trifectas are tough to get too ... although,  in terms of winners we've gone 3 from 4 and a 2nd in the last 2 weekends on the ADATR thread.

[Macca 16,918]

So on to the Magic Millions it is then ... the main interest is generally with the 2yo Classic although the Guineas,  Cup,  Trophy,  Sprint and the F & M race also has a number of quality horses running around.  Some horses like 'Tally' have qualified for the big day even though they don't fall under the banner of the MM.  A good move by the organisation.

But pertaining to the 2yo Classic,  here are a couple of stories emanating out of today's racing.

Blue Army filly (Exhilerates) shakes up Gold Coast Magic Millions

Snowden 2YO 'Hightailing' to the Gold Coast

 

Edited January 5, 2019 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

14 hours ago, Macca said:

So on to the Magic Millions it is then ... the main interest is generally with the 2yo Classic although the Guineas,  Cup,  Trophy,  Sprint and the F & M race also has a number of quality horses running around.  Some horses like 'Tally' have qualified for the big day even though they don't fall under the banner of the MM.  A good move by the organisation.

But pertaining to the 2yo Classic,  here are a couple of stories emanating out of today's racing.

Blue Army filly (Exhilerates) shakes up Gold Coast Magic Millions

Snowden 2YO 'Hightailing' to the Gold Coast

 

Yes Yes Yes.....what a clever name for a horse 

Salute to Mark Webber winning his first F1 race of course..

[Macca 16,918]

39 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes Yes Yes.....what a clever name for a horse 

Salute to Mark Webber winning his first F1 race of course..

Looks a goodin' too does 'Yes Yes Yes' Wadda. 

'Exhilerates' has taken the same pathway as 'Sunlight' did last year.  In fact,  3 of the past 4 winners of the Magic Millions 2yo classic have won the same sprint race at the Gold Coast one week beforehand.  Godolphin & James Cummings in good form too.  Race Replay of Exhilerates winning yesterday

And I see Inglis have got in on the action with a big day of their own to be held annually on the 2nd Saturday in February at Warwick Farm.  Another $2Million race for the 2YO's.  As well as that,  the Inglis 3YO's race for $1Million in a sprint race on the same day - read more here

Edited January 6, 2019 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Thats interesting 3/4 huh? Ok noted

 

Perhaps Macca, someone will call a racehorse Kohli !    :)

 

 

 

 

[Macca 16,918]

10 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thats interesting 3/4 huh? Ok noted

Perhaps Macca, someone will call a racehorse Kohli !   

I see that 'Exhilarates' has come into equal favouritism with 'Dubious' after the barrier draw Wadda ... all falling into place for Godolphin again.  My strategy will be to take a box trifecta or box F4 though rather than a straight out bet.

With the 2YO's a lot depends on the run of the race,  barrier draw and closing speed.  Good dividends can be had with the right combo.  The horses with good closing speed that have drawn well are Exhilarates (9) & Dubious (7)

'Yes Yes Yes' & 'Hightail' both finish well but they've both drawn the carpark (21 & 19) whilst noted front runner 'Unite & Conquer' has drawn barrier 18.  Tough to win from out there at the Gold Coast track.

For a bit of value the Hayes horse 'Champagne Boom' is good odds and has drawn barrier 3.  And if 1st emergency 'Rome' out of gate 8 gets a run it could give a good sight after nearly running down boom colt and late scratching for the MM Classic 'Sun City' at its last start.  'The Odyssey' (barrier 2) defeated Sun City two starts back so it has claims as well.

But the wide barriers can be a real issue at the Gold Coast track as illustrated below - especially for the 2YO's unless they possess real class.

 

Edited January 8, 2019 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

15 hours ago, Macca said:

I see that 'Exhilarates' has come into equal favouritism with 'Dubious' after the barrier draw Wadda ... all falling into place for Godolphin again.  My strategy will be to take a box trifecta or box F4 though rather than a straight out bet.

With the 2YO's a lot depends on the run of the race,  barrier draw and closing speed.  Good dividends can be had with the right combo.  The horses with good closing speed that have drawn well are Exhilarates (9) & Dubious (7)

'Yes Yes Yes' & 'Hightail' both finish well but they've both drawn the carpark (21 & 19) whilst noted front runner 'Unite & Conquer' has drawn barrier 18.  Tough to win from out there at the Gold Coast track.

For a bit of value the Hayes horse 'Champagne Boom' is good odds and has drawn barrier 3.  And if 1st emergency 'Rome' out of gate 8 gets a run it could give a good sight after nearly running down boom colt and late scratching for the MM Classic 'Sun City' at its last start.  'The Odyssey' (barrier 2) defeated Sun City two starts back so it has claims as well.

But the wide barriers can be a real issue at the Gold Coast track as illustrated below - especially for the 2YO's unless they possess real class.

 

I dont mind Rome...keeping in contrast with the recent trip tactics. Resting in Rome! (which i did)  

 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

52 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I dont mind Rome...keeping in contrast with the recent trip tactics. Resting in Rome! (which i did)  

 

Nice, I’m liking ‘Dubious’, ‘Rome’ is going in as well for the exotics if it gains a run.

We could get the weekend going on a good note, El is racing Friday night at Cranbourne, drawn out in Casey Fields (13), carrying 60.5kg and stepping up to 1300m, what could possibly go wrong? 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Dee Zephyr

[Macca 16,918]

Just a bit of further info on the barrier records for the MM 2YO Classic - the last 10 years

• 2009:  9 - 6 - 3 - 7
• 2010:  3 - 13 - 5 - 2
• 2011:  7 - 14 - 9 - 3
• 2012:  2 - 3 - 7 - 5
• 2013:  2 - 10 - 3 - 11
• 2014:  3 - 6 - 2 - 1
• 2015:  3 - 12 - 6 - 11
• 2016:  2 - 3 - 1 - 7
• 2017:  16 - 9 - 1 - 11 (Houtzen was the winner)
• 2018:  12 - 16 - 5 - 13 (Sunlight was the winner)

By the way,  gun sprinter 'Houtzen' is the $1.85 favourite for the MM Sprint ($1Million) on Saturday.  And the horse that ran 2nd last year from barrier 16 is called 'Hello Beauty' ... started at 100-1 and now races out of HK.  It has only had the 1 start up there and may have incurred an injury.

The 10 year sample size shows that it is tough to even get into the finish from a wide barrier but it's interesting that we have 2 classy gallopers that have drawn an outside gate this time ... after the final field is settled 'Yes Yes Yes' will run from gate 16 whilst 'Unite And Conquer will run from the 14 alley.  Another good performer in 'Hightail' will run from barrier 15. 

I can envisage an absolute mad scramble for that first 200m straightaway from the barriers until they start that long 600m bend to the 400m straight.  Those caught wide without cover will find it hard to sprint down that 400m straight.  Especially if it's a truly run affair. 

[Macca 16,918]

Best Bet

Gold Coast  Race 6  No.5  Manicure $3.20

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Best Bet

Randwick Race 8 Number 1

Turnberry $4.20

[Macca 16,918]

The money has come again for El Mag @Dee Zephyr

I've taken out a F4 in the race and just got the winner in the previous race with Pissaro thanks to a pre-race tip from Terry Bailey & Ben Asgari.  Won well too but the horse did have some decent group racing history (4th to Ace High in a Derby)

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

17 minutes ago, Macca said:

The money has come again for El Mag @Dee Zephyr

I've taken out a F4 in the race and just got the winner in the previous race with Pissaro thanks to a pre-race tip from Terry Bailey & Ben Asgari.  Won well too but the horse did have some decent group racing history (4th to Ace High in a Derby)

Hope you got a collect there Macca. I should know by now to back El early as he seems to be plunged late every start. The price in the end was a bit low for my liking and the query was the 1300. In saying that he did run a good race, just found one better.

Did I hear the caller say all winners tonight were Cranbourne trained horses?

[Macca 16,918]

8 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Hope you got a collect there Macca. I should know by now to back El early as he seems to be plunged late every start. The price in the end was a bit low for my liking and the query was the 1300. In saying that he did run a good race, just found one better.

Did I hear the caller say all winners tonight were Cranbourne trained horses?

They went quite quick up front and 'Spirit of Nia' was a bit of a nuisance for a time.  I thought El Mag ran very well and it boxed on to the line.  It looks like they ran under 01:18 for the 1300m so the horse could be looking for further than just the 1000m.  Still early doors but encouraging signs.

Missed the F4 but only had a small outlay for a small percentage so no great loss DZ.  Threw in a few roughies looking for the big dividend ... the theory only works if enough of the roughies get into the finish!  One of them was 'Spirit of Nia' and it was looking good for a while there.

And yeah,  all Cranbourne trained horses won tonight according to Terry Bailey.  Over to the soccer again now (leading 2 - 0) 

[Macca 16,918]

Chauffeur wins the 1100m sprint under a new trainer at good odds.  Form was way below average but DK Weir does it again.  He really is the master trainer.  Wasn't on it but I did look at it ?

My earlier tip at the Gold Coast 'Manicure' just got pipped but ran a good race for 2nd placing.

Edit:  Classic finish in the MM Guineas ... Boomsara holds out Bondi who were both running from wide barriers.  Outback Barbie 3rd although there's a protest 3rd against 2nd.  With $190k being the difference in prizemoney from 2nd & 3rd,  I'm not surprised.

Edited January 12, 2019 by Macca