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Premiership Predictor

Lifelong Demon
Lifelong Demon
in Melbourne Demons

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I was interested in the Fox Footy premiership predictor that I saw at some point last week, so through together a version on my footy tipping spreadsheet to see if evidence over time can assist in predicting winners! (I'm not a betting man, so this is purely for seeing if you can predict winners from just the ladder and who is at home - last week it gave me 8 winners as I didnt take into account umpires issuing frees to Hawthorn and picked Crows to win by 9)

For those that havent seen this on Fox Footy - the last 15 premiership winning teams have scored an average higher than 100 and kept their opposition to an average of lower than 86. The teams with yellow borders are currently in the top 8. The black circle is the league average for and against.

Based on this formula, it is very interesting to see where the Demons are placed at the moment. Before Round 5, we were placed almost exactly where Hawks are now. But after the one win we are now scoring enough to be a premiership winning side, but not keeping our opposition low enough (we are allowing 1 too many goals each week), but we are closer to being in the premiership winning quadrant than any other team.

Another good win this weekend, while staying strong on defence (Saints are only averaging 83, which keeps them under the magic number) might push us up into that quadrant!

Now, this doesnt mean our premiership window is open, or we will even make the top 8 - its still early in the season -  but keeping your stats in the top left quadrant is where history says the premiership team comes from and being up there cant hurt your chances.

Round 5.PNG

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    Here's the official Champion Data graph of this, it's a really fascinating snapshot, that I only just discovered last week:

    Cg74iGzUgAENbkx.jpg:large

    It's great seeing our offence really click the last few weeks, now just got to get a bit stingier down the other end....

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    Using the above for tipping then which doesn't consider any home ground advantage for this week would result in:

    Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide, GWS, Port, Geelong, Sydney, Carlton, West Coast

    That look's pretty good with the following considerations, your backing the defense of the Dogs to withstand Norths scoring ability, Port and Richmond are about on par does the MCG provide an advantage in picking Richmond over Port, I'm really struggling to decide whether to tip GWS for an upset... they did it last year, maybe the above is the answer!

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    8 minutes ago, boydie said:

    Using the above for tipping then which doesn't consider any home ground advantage for this week would result in:

    Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide, GWS, Port, Geelong, Sydney, Carlton, West Coast

    That look's pretty good with the following considerations, your backing the defense of the Dogs to withstand Norths scoring ability, Port and Richmond are about on par does the MCG provide an advantage in picking Richmond over Port, I'm really struggling to decide whether to tip GWS for an upset... they did it last year, maybe the above is the answer!

    Also using the graph Melbourne should beat Hawthorn... :roos: 

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    The North game would be the sole reason we are on the wrong side of the defence line, but I guess it also has us above the attack line.

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    Sydney, GWS and Gold Coast the only ones in the 'premiership quartile'?

    I feel like 5 rounds may not be a big enough sample size. Maybe 10 rounds?

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    1 hour ago, Choke said:

    Sydney, GWS and Gold Coast the only ones in the 'premiership quartile'?

    I feel like 5 rounds may not be a big enough sample size. Maybe 10 rounds?

    23 rounds plus finals ought to do it.

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    3 hours ago, Daily Dose of Demons said:

    Also using the graph Melbourne should beat Hawthorn... :roos: 

    Hawthorns points against average is slightly lower than ours. From memory the vast majority of winners last week were those with the better (lower) points against. 

    And like Choke said, a few more rounds are needed to get some more accurate data. 

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