Another 2011..

[beelzebub 23,313]

I'd say 10 minimum. There is going to be some easy wins out there with GWS added to the bottom dwellers esp if we get some of them twice.

Having said that there are plenty of other metrics (than wins) which will indicate our improvement (or lack of) next season

I already noted that its imperitive that we are able to compete with the top teams if not beat them ( some)

We will have 3-4 wins as charity depending on the number of games v GWS and GC. So for 10 , 7 more isnt really that much of a stretch ( 0r shouldnt be )

Winning even 11 games is effecively saying youre only 50/50. We need to be far better than that.

Its good to have varying indicators starting to work your way but in reality there is only one metric.

[daisycutter 29,604]

Its good to have varying indicators starting to work your way but in reality there is only one metric.

Well I don't think we will win a flag next year, LOL (assuming that was the metric you had in mind)

[beelzebub 23,313]

Well I don't think we will win a flag next year, LOL (assuming that was the metric you had in mind)

No..not quite..thatwould be ultimate metric.

I simply meant winning. Dice and slice this game any which way and some and it all comes back to being a game of two sides seeking to win. One does, the other doesnt. Many indicators merrely observe the likelyhood of winning. They have merit unto themselves but we go out to win. I hope we do.

[rpfc 28,263]

Well I don't think we will win a flag next year, LOL (assuming that was the metric you had in mind)

I think he means the ladder, or wins.

They are legislatively important metrics but misleading as 'Melbourne 2010 - 8.5 wins' and 'Melbourne 2011 - 8.5 wins' points out...

[Flying Cloud 152]

I would be rapped if we could beat everyone except say Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and Carlton when playing at the Gee, as well as Gold Coast, GWS, and Port when playing interstate, and win one game at Ethihad. If we did that we should be around 7 to 9, depending on the draw.

Also be within cooee of Geelong at Simonds Stadium (Kardinia Park), and no defeats by more than 40 points.

[daisycutter 29,604]

Lose to Geelong by 185 or less points

[jacey 333]

What I find interesting is that people classify 2011 as a backwards step, I actually feel that although we didn't progress as well as I'd like we still got games into a lot of our young guns and with the addition of Clark I feel we have good reason to be excited about 2012.

Agree. I'm saying 12 wins.

The AFL is lopsided. There are 5-6 really good teams and a scrap fest for the rest with one or 2 really rubbish.

We stagnated last year and while everyone was excited preseason 2011, i was more hopeful.

2012, I genuinely think we will surprise this year.

[beelzebub 23,313]

What I find interesting is that people classify 2011 as a backwards step, I actually feel that although we didn't progress as well as I'd like we still got games into a lot of our young guns and with the addition of Clark I feel we have good reason to be excited about 2012.

Im not really sure how you can suggest its anything but.

2010 despite the same 8.5 wins as 2011 had more games with wins against better teams. We stood -1 point nett against the eventual Premiers after two games. We set a record agaisnt Sydney.

2011 two wins were charity againist newbies. We had a record set AGAINST us and finished with near 10 % less.

In 2012 i'd like to think we'd at the very least get back to 2010 form if not a step or two beyond.

[Cheesecake 92]

What are the chances we could surprise everyone next year and really push up into the eight? One team always seems to do it every year. Is it a "no chance" proposition?

It definitely isn't a 'no chance' proposition. Have a look at these skyrocketting teams since the turn of the century.

2000 Us from 14th to 3rd

2001 Port Adelaide from 14th to 3rd

2001 Richmond from 9th to 4th

2002 Collingwood from 9th to 4th

2003 Sydney from 11th to 4th

2004 St Kilda from 11th to 3rd

2004 Geelong from 12th to 4th

2005 Adelaide from 12th to 1st

2006 Fremantle from 10th to 3rd

2007 Geelong from 10th to 1st

2007 Port Adelaide from 12th to 2nd

2007 North Melbourne from 14th to 4th

2008 St Kilda from 9th to 4th

2008 Western Bulldogs from 13th to 3rd

2009 Nil

2010 Nil

2011 West Coast from 16th to 4th

A team from outside the eight gets into the four pretty much every year! Including:

- 15 times in the last 12 years.

- Three of the top four teams in 2007

- Several from as far back as 14th.

- Two that jumped straight to minor premiers, with one of those going on to win the flag.

- Three more that made grand finals (not forgetting us in 2000, of course)

That said, I think 2013 will be our skyrocketting year. But why not dare to dream in 2012?

[rpfc 28,263]

It definitely isn't a 'no chance' proposition. Have a look at these skyrocketting teams since the turn of the century.

2000 Us from 14th to 3rd

2001 Port Adelaide from 14th to 3rd

2001 Richmond from 9th to 4th

2002 Collingwood from 9th to 4th

2003 Sydney from 11th to 4th

2004 St Kilda from 11th to 3rd

2004 Geelong from 12th to 4th

2005 Adelaide from 12th to 1st

2006 Fremantle from 10th to 3rd

2007 Geelong from 10th to 1st

2007 Port Adelaide from 12th to 2nd

2007 North Melbourne from 14th to 4th

2008 St Kilda from 9th to 4th

2008 Western Bulldogs from 13th to 3rd

2009 Nil

2010 Nil

2011 West Coast from 16th to 4th

A team from outside the eight gets into the four pretty much every year! Including:

- 15 times in the last 12 years.

- Three of the top four teams in 2007

- Several from as far back as 14th.

- Two that jumped straight to minor premiers, with one of those going on to win the flag.

- Three more that made grand finals (not forgetting us in 2000, of course)

That said, I think 2013 will be our skyrocketting year. But why not dare to dream in 2012?

At this point should we discuss the ridiculous idea of Relegation/Promotion?

Because these lifts in ladder positions would be impossible if we did move to that...

[Dee Fan 3,247]

We're gunna be awsome.

[Cheesecake 92]

A team from outside the eight gets into the four pretty much every year! Including:

- 15 times in the last 12 years.

- Three of the top four teams in 2007

- Several from as far back as 14th.

- Two that jumped straight to minor premiers, with one of those going on to win the flag.

- Three more that made grand finals (not forgetting us in 2000, of course)

That said, I think 2013 will be our skyrocketting year. But why not dare to dream in 2012?

And how did I forget? One team from last place to top four!!

[Flying Cloud 152]

Of course none of those teams were tanking. Only Melbourne tanks according to many in the press. West Coast last year were just list managing.