Tolstoys Nudge

Greta podcast as ALWAYS fellas! Just a few points for me below… — George stated Nibbler played more on-ball support than usual, but Nibs has played the identical role for 2-3hrs now, is always played as an additional mid and as first crack showed it’s to release Trac, always has been. To Binmans point, port mids are nowhere near ours, even WITH JHF. Boak? More a winger, so then you’ve gotta count Lingers and Hunter then.. Powell-Pepper is a pressure fwd has been for 2.5yrs now so just some feedback and support for Binman, I’d have Clarry, Trac, Vines, Sparrow, Salem, Langdon, Nibbler over JHF, Rozee, Butters, Boak, Drew ANY DAY in the proverbial rain hail shine! So happy for Nibbler and most of all for the ANB haters, where are they now?!?! Been doing this for years without notice to most, so glad now more can see what he offers us, despite being laughed at for defending him all this time, so kudos to him and Binman for being his biggest supporter & helping inform others — Binman point re body language of Lingers it’s right of numerous players, inc Ed, who LY looked continually down flat and sad, as did others inc Salem, whereas this year, it’s flipped completely and they all look genuinely delighted to be at the MFC — Viney kicking another good point, 💯 down to being truly MATCH fit for first time following pre season & the extra work he’s done on track and via film on decision-making, brilliant — Also still unsure if anyone’s picked up the change in our zone. I know it feels/looks identical but I can assure you It is absolutely not, it’s far more adaptable, has rotated players through new spots & is more central-focused to neutralise corridor. Might try and raise it as a question next week — Loved caller mentioning Langers, and Andy/George calling it with Binman sharing as always he covered most ground which is EVERY game I think 39/40 or something ridiculous like that. He has been absolutely excellent last 2wks and goes totally unheralded. I think Hunter still comes in and Windsor gets used as the third winger and rotating high HFF with Billings so if all are fit, one is sub it’s that simple, but I think they’ll trial it at least but that’s weeks away yet. Finally named real wingers in AA LY and Ed should be a chance but won’t be cus he plays for us — Windsor goal, the sheer QUALITY of finish seen there has to get more credit, it absolutely OOZED class, was a 55m kick under pressure, post FULL acceleration - I mean that was a goal maybe 8-10 players in comp can kick due to the speed needed and without deceleration at all, wow! Glad someone called it out, but boy, that was so much more class than most realise it’s not funny, the footwork is instinctive — can’t teach most of what he’s good at and THAT is why he’s so exciting — Fritta goal great, but AS was BBB’s, I mean what a goal with composure to not react and kick it perfectly then not react to fans at all, he’s just a class human and SO glad he is back in, he adds so much for us via the vacuum, so glad George also caught and mentioned his tap to Fritta, HIGH IQ player who’s so underrated when at what he makes us significantly better — Those wanting to drop Billings this week, seriously, it wasn’t his night, he got shutdown, and enabled others to thrive. but his disposal is crucial.. who’s coming for him? Until Hunter fit, NO ONE. should’ve kicked that crucial goal but just didn’t get penetration due to the hard running he’d done — Stoppage scoring is a genuine weapon, port were 2.7 cus their transition wasn’t as clean and had tougher shots, our new style enables that stoppage dominance due to the fed running patterns I’ve been referencing all pre-season, which is another way the new zone or adj zone has helped inc TMac being a much better communicator & thinker than Tommo — Media morons re expected score inc Dermie who made ludicrous joke at end of game in coverage re Goody, SG has EVERY right to mention it, we lost a final after one of most dominant games in history he is a coach he can’t kick for them so it’s his way of talking to how we’re playing re form, THAT is why he talks to it, and why it’s vital cus missing easy shots doesn’t reflect how we’re playing or our competitiveness, and no binman they don’t understand it cus it means simply shows them how the game went if all appropriate goals were kicked it’s that simple my goodness

There’s no hits — In fact just opposite with Mayesy running round and Lever tipped to play alongside Clarry for that matter so I’d say it’s been an extremely positive day

Keen to get your thoughts Andy/Binman on my new (equal) fave (current) Demon, Blake Howes — I’ve been waiting for this cool-headed-kid to bear fruit ever since JT again managed to steal him in the draft at #39 in 2021, amidst doing some research on his attributes. I began to lose a tiny bit of my staunch belief of how much he’d be able to add to this side, but boy how that belief has now been not only repaid, but well & truly transcended. So much so, that I think he may have even surpassed Judd’s inclusion — & that’s close to my heart for I caught him in Jan of 23’ & called his potential R1 debut & thus take small pleasure out of spotting that one alongside my four young ens 😂 Blake personifies the word balance, in respect to what our defensive side needed with his clear attributes of; balance, steeliness, acumen, critical-thinking, precision, adaptability & most adroitly of all, a truly exceptional level of composure! I’ve also been taken with his size, reach & closing speed — all things that have been a very nice surprise. What have you guys been most excited by, surprised with, in Blake Howes? And do you think you may have put together the 3 most underrated debutant games in the last decade? Howes acumen has been integral to helping tighten our Zone Defence, which will be more vital than ever in wks ahead — Let’s hope the rest of the footy world begins to catch-on to how impressive his performances have been.

Very surprised Freo, Bris & Sydney haven’t got more votes — but I guess the Pies just steal the limelight too easily on this one!

Haha nice! Once that tenderness sets in and adrenaline dissipates = it’s a MIN 2-3Wkr likely 4-6.

TMAC to the rescue re Petty being bake to be fwd though, that’s for sure. Lever I don’t think will necessarily even miss, will entirely depend on scan!

Hmmm nah. Or for me, if Thomo comes in, Petty stays fwd IMHO. Matchup wise it works & fwd line looked much more dangerous with Petty there (as did backline too of course). Interesting to see if we play Schache back in VFL today, just as a means to test out the depth for worst-case scenarios down-the-line, Adams still 12-18mths away from being AFL ready (demon afl ready that is, he’s AFL ready for many other sides) so curious to see if he JS does play back or if Jeffo experiment (not experimenting to make a def, just to round his game) means JS will stay fwd — I’m hoping they go with MJ fwd JS back.

No.. he’s just got a choice to make by circumstance and he’ll choose us, he’s a demon mad kid who’s supported us his entire life and will make use of the GC academy benefits all he can while he can!

Despite feeling slightly nervous just out of the sheer facts of going 0-2 and the pressure-cooker environment potentially becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts.. BUT.. then I went through the Dogs team, line by line, and boy — did I suddenly feel a whole lot better. The lineups are incredibly skewed in our favour, and all of a sudden with swans belting the pies (talk about a flattering scoreline, was more like a 10 goal drubbing) in Melbourne, after it seemed like they got us through the extremist humidity negating Max, Lever, JVR & happening to get us minus the one player it may of suited in Kos — I now find myself feeling extremely confident. I do highly recommend the exercise of reviewing dogs side.. you’ll start to see it: Backs: Bramble Khamis Coffield Wings: Harmes, Gallagher Fwds: West, Lobb Interchange: Vandermeer, McNeil, Williams, JJ (inconsistent lot at best) When you put that bottom 10 or so, against ours, it really does speak to how much the media fails to really ever actually analyse a game before speaking on their expected outcomes — sure we could lose, anyone can to any side, but how 80% of media rips the dogs is absolutely laughable and unfounded on every metric or facet: Gameplan, cohesion, experience, Ground record, Form & history! But it’s also just the way I (and I believe also the proverbial WE) like it, always have worn the underdog, written-off shoe better than the world-beater one and I’m glad the media have jumped-off, publicly at least. Last week, I don’t care what ANYONE says — conditions played a role & our new gameplan be it ball movement, or our updated (and MUCH improved for mine) Zone setup were all impacted by the ground size & most of all conditions. We’ve also got a more balanced side today, carrying less unfit players (Spargo over Billings was pure insanity, even Spargo over a KOLT or K Brown given his fitness was bonkers) with Clarry less likely to fade out late like he did LW, again where the humidity played an essential role. As proven on Friday night, Grundy could not POSSIBLY have had a better set of circumstances go his way last week, Max was mitigated to a pure tap only role given high marking was impossible, and Grundy being able to thrive by it basically playing like a torrential downpour after 15m, making everything slow-down & bringing his lower centre of gravity & ground-ball pick up, quick kick out of contest style to the forefront! That’s not happening again. Expected score was a 16pt loss LW, and we died in the last quarter & failed to take advantage yet again, early when we had ascendency & could of broken game open by getting out to a 15-25pt lead, which changes the entire dynamic of the contest. But we got beaten by a side who mastered the conditions, and that we’re able to run away, and sure right now swans look ominous, but it’s a 30wk season form opening rnd game to GF, so let’s not peak R0, as it is not ideal — but yes getting win sure would have taken the pressure off a little. We know it’s always danger vs dogs, they don’t like us and it’s more than mutually felt, but given a simulation of 1000 games, we win this one 670-715 times in my opinion. I’m definitely looking fwd to seeing the new style in appropriate conditions, with less fumbles than in a high-school gridiron Friday night lights — Rivers, Max, Lever, JVR, Trac should all make amends today in perfect for footy conditions & I just cannot wait to see the boys firing on the mighty ‘G!!! What I wanna see: — With appropriate conditions in both weather & ground this week… Our newly tweaked Zone alongside our adapted ball movement strategy = Putting aces in their places ergo putting the footy in the hands we want it in when propelling i50!!! Perhaps one of the most low-key innovative features of the off-season, helped perhaps by having some Mini McQualter insights, but the new slightly deeper Zone, that puts more of a premium on inviting the perfect kick with the go-on-then-have-crack-at-it roaming HFF interceptor sitting slightly back ready to pounce on the corridor pass that isn’t absolutely perfect, combined with the slightly more offensive cross-cross running pattern it launches once it is a read from those front zone runners, where they sense so much as a 55-45 chance at intercept, they’re GAWWWN w/full propulsion fwd thru mid & mid-side lanes using a cross-cross, or zig-zag pattern (depending on where the contest in question is) that has our best kicks (Salo, Billings, Kos, McVee, Windsor, Nibbler overlapping past the first possessor to ensure they’re the i50 kicker & decision maker & our fwds are running in both a 90* Angle & a stagger-type lead pattern along with a mid/fwd cutting to the most dangerous space just i50 for the easy over the top or short angle entry, like what we saw vs blues but more intense & id say at 10% improvement every 4-6wks thru the year — This is a method that IF we can get it right will result in MUCH better shots at goal, and also allow a f50 stoppage as the goal when the hit/up might be covered or the deeper option can’t get a break on the lead — as they’ll then work with those aforementioned to create a contest on a lower-height i50 deeper entry to get that stoppage or ideally win the contest before it gets to stoppage obviously! I know it sounds a bit complex or hard-to-visualise but you’ll hopefully see plenty of it today. Key though is getting that gamble kick intercept right & not allowing a deeper oppo entry due to a breakdown in the system somewhere. This gamble-kick enticing role is where I think Lever becomes essential if manned up, why need a Hore/Howes/Disco combo rather than a Tommo due to speed off mark & absolute decisiveness needing to be on-point! — Max Gawn & Lever/May/Hore/Howes at intercepting best in proper footy conditions without insane humidity & at a ground more condusive to it (So glad to see Marty back, despite the vitriol anyone seems to get when they mention him being a good pick-up, which is fine but confusing that’s all, you’ll see very soon why his kicking & smarts are so valued)✅✅✅ — Kos being champing-at-the-bit & in best one-touch form of his career, blitzing out of contests or dancing around traffic i50 😮‍💨😮‍💨😮‍💨 — Watching a majestic young Winger Speedster tear down the Members wing & hit up some targets as well as taking a few bounces & igniting a mighty roar with a clam, composed, clinical finish!!! 🔥🔥🔥 — Clarry putting in one of those games where his hands have to be seen to be believed, setting up his teammates time after time & getting a snag from the boundary with a brute of a push-off & a SNAPPP 🙌🙌🙌 Prediction: Dees by 32pts Gls: JVR, Kossie 3, Fritta, Petracca, Brown 2 Best: Gawn, Clarry, Trac, Kos ————————————————————— If we do somehow lose, let’s see the manner & not throw baby out with bathwater, as hurtful as it’ll be, can’t see it happening but it’s a long season & we WILL get it right more than not, don’t forget that — We’ve proven this & I blv in this team & coaching staff, we’ve got FAR more improved in us than we do decline!!! Go Dees 🔴🔵

Been thinking this a long time after it was highly public Geelong usurped us.. pace is big plus and would suit our mids given he’s more outside overall but can win it inside as well..

Not sure fwd cohesion was the issue tonight — we got beaten at the coal face and on the outside in strange conditions, that rendered Max redundant and gave Grundy the best of chances to shine. We lacked the game turners that can make something or of nothing, with Trac off a little and fumbly, Kos would’ve been a MASSIVE advantage given how clean and quick he is but that’s footy. I took solace in May performance, Fritta overcoming recent mini-yips is huge & I think Howes was superb, composed and showed PLENTY. Clarry better for run, overall we will know much more after next week I feel!

Won’t bother Claz even a BIT mate, count on that!!!

YES

Agreed all around. I think only changes to Carlton squad will be Clarry for Brown & perhaps Fullarton for Kos, with Laurie as more of a fwd/mid option. Unless we somehow work a miracle with McAdam & he can be the sub. They may wait in Clarry but way I see it he played with Casey to protect him exposure wise and cannot see why he’d be held above as that’d only add pressure to his shoulders for R1-2.

Slippery slopes being sled

Loving the overall positivity from the DL’ers today… very very nice to see! Some really positive signs, thanks Andy for helping get us info and pics etc — love your work as always! — Love that Kolt was up and about, pulled at HT so we’ll see him tonight! — I think Fullarton rucking all game is a HUGE footnote personally… terrific signs! Could be a R1 Smoky now for sure given fwd woes and McAdam 80% likely to miss.. — SURELY Clarry plays now, it’d be counterproductive to hold him back now and likely a slight kick in guts. I’d have him 85% likely at present since he says he’s pulled-up well. — Seston dobbing 3 is another lovely song, kid can finish & I think he might be a player if he can cont to build an AFL tank & physique, he is def closing in on both!!! We need all the natural kickers & finishers we can get… — Wrapped for Jeffo, have been a keen observer of his since pre-draft and think with Petty (if he stays), JVR & MJ we’re building a really unique, dynamic set of Key Fwds to them have mids and smalls play off of. Each brings something very different, JVR the leading, aerobic, natural talent, Petty the crafty strong hands with high IQ & Jeffo the mark at highest-point, Bean-pole with some panache & flair!!! — TMAC an important depth defender — Hore a natural fitting smart defender who adds something different & plays tall/small — AMW cont to grow that 1-3% a week towards being an AFL player. Confident he’ll get there and AGAIN is something different in his skill set, style & make-up to what we have in the smalls dept

Not hard 2 do at ALL

Well get used to it! It’s likely gonna shown at least early, reiterated by Richo & makes sense at stages given he keeps getting tagged out of games at HB

Talk about a headline that makes you go ‘’MEH’ — Such a tool.. Goody has been safe, yes! But that’s not known cus of Lloyd, that’s for sure… I am looking fwd to seeing some of that change this year as I think its likely one of our biggest changes re having more gears to go to and less safe at times! But honestly Lloyd, is perhaps less on money than Cornes!

Can’t WAIT to see him today

Crazy! Shock horror neither Cornes or King had him in their combined top 10 finish Brownlow locks.. morons

Agreed!

Yeah that Clarry.. he’s SO flaky I mean just look at his 7yr record 🤷🏻‍♂️

Agreed

Yep, we’re perfect — clearly! 😂 Your point about the pies is EXTREMELY narrow sighted, they needed LUCK more than they needed skill. Did their skill make 6 demon shots miss form spots that have a 70% avg success rate in a qtr? Did their grit ensure that they won nearly every 50/50 decision in the final 3qtrs? LUCK is king and never forget it, luck > skill equation only amplifies in small margin finals. It’s hard to swallow but it’s fact. Sure you get runs like us in 21’ but even that had elements of luck, the dogs failures to get that extra goal to put them 23 up, etc.. run and carry is a super-simplified term, we’re adding strings to an arsenal, gears to a chain.. to combat a 10-15% swing toward a more offensive overall brand..