Macca
Life Member
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Joined
Everything posted by Macca
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We should nearly always swap our 1st & 2nd round picks for proven talent anyway. And by proven talent I mean B+ or A grade (never Dawes, Clark or Lumumba) More like Buddy, Dangerfield, Judd, Lynch, Treloar, Mitchell etc etc Drafting is high risk where as trading draft picks for proven talent has very little risk attached. And draft picks are overvalued anyway so it's hard to lose out from an overall perspective (trading draft picks for proven talent) Trading for Lever & May were the right moves. So was trading a top end pick for Jeff White back in 1997. Injuries can happen to draftees as well (Hogan, Petracca, Brayshaw, Trengove etc etc) And I have been saying the same thing for decades. Just think how better off we'd be if we'd traded for talent from 2007 onwards. The long list of busts wouldn't have happened and we'd have been relevant and a finals contender throughout. Morton, Watts, Scully, Trengove, Gysberts, Strauss, Maric, Blease, Cook, Tapscott, Weideman, Tyson (a former pick 3) and a few others would never have happened We'd have lost the chance to draft Oliver, Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem (and a departing Hogan) but those 5 players are all we can point at over a 12 year period. A massive, catastrophic fail. The system stinks and we need to stop blaming the A-end of the problem. What we could always have done is to trade for picks with those who have a bit of currency and then bundled up the picks for proven talent. Given how high risk drafting is I'm astonished that a club hasn't tried it (consistently) You'll never win backing long shots. But belief systems are belief systems. Faith, hope & trust wins out. We want to believe what we're being told by the draft believers but the truth says otherwise. Talented draftees should be therefore targeted after they have been in the AFL system for 2-4 years. So you don't actually ever miss out (if you're smart) You still have to do the mandatory 3 picks but that can be picks 62, 63 & 64. All expendable. -
Got the approval of BM, JV7 as well so it looks like we were all on it Gorg! Looked the winner a long way from home carrying that light weight and with a big advantage at the weights as well. In true Aussie tradition the handicapper was beaten as well. It is too good a horse to be only carrying 52kgs. But that is how it works and the smart punters were all over the horse.
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And Avilius duly wins ... great finishing burst and a class above. Had it going in a couple of bets so a nice collect. And without Winx involved, Avilius looks a real chance for the Cox Plate. The Cox Plate will be a much more open event though especially with Mystic Journey likely to run as well as a few other top fancies.
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Gambling often gets a bad rap but most I know are quite responsible with punting. I relate betting on the horses to the grog. Do it all responsibly I say. Next weekend we've got arguably the biggest 3 days of racing about ... GF weekend sees a total of 16 Group races at Moonee Valley (Friday night - Moir St), Rosehill (Sat arvo - Golden Rose St) & Caulfield (Sunday arvo - Underwood St) Usually we see the Epsom Hcp & the Metropolitan Hcp on GF weekend but both those races are on the week after (along with the big Turnbull Stakes Day meeting). Lots of great racing where we see the best of best up against each other. The sport of Kings!
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I studied up hard on the heavy/soft form for the meeting at Randwick and am quietly confident of getting some value collects Exacta's mainly with a few win bets courtesy of some bonus bets from Laddies. I marked Avilius at about 2.60 but 3.50 is available. Nice choice at decent odds BM.
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Gotta be worth the price of a coffee at those odds. I've included all our picks in various small bets. I've got Avilius going in a few things as I reckon it's a good thing (good choice BM) The 3 others all have good claims. Avilius winning with the other 3 (for the place) is showing 20-1. Saver bet.
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Tigers the better team with fresher legs. Might be over at half time if Richmond get the break.
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Well the thread has had 77,450 views which is quite a substantial number Wadda. And there are a number of punters on 'land ... every now and again a poster will make a reference to the races. I've been a bit busy lately so have neglected to update the strike rate, post up video replays, feature stories and the Wednesday evening preview. I'll get back into the swing of things soon enough. The race replays especially are fun to look back on in terms of historical purposes. Before you know it, we'll be 5 years down the track on this thread. 10 years is merely a blink of an eyelid away! haha
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Up against some very good horses but is in great form, is lightly weighted and Gator has picked it as well!
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Best Bet Saturday Caulfield Race 7 (Win) No.14 Begood Toya Mother $4.00
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As for Eli ... Terry Bradshaw reckons he'd have much better results in a better team so if he was to move, he might be able to help out a contender The Steelers have lost Ben for the entire season but Eli as a Steeler has an odd look about it. Maybe the Jags but Foles would step back in mid season you'd imagine. Same deal for the Saints & Brees. But it's a win now league so there will be an offer or 2. He'll probably just stay at the Giants and they still need to pay him the big bucks. But it wouldn't surprise me if he did end up elsewhere. It can't be assumed that Eli would be happy being a mentor all of a sudden.
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If anyone is looking for the lines and the Bill Simmons podcast, they are on the previous page.
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So out of the 17 weeks a decent tipping year might see one get 3 road winners about 5, 6 or 7 times. 1 in 3? But at about 6-1 or 7-1 odds for the tri-bet that's a handy return. Not that I'm encouraging gambling of course! Just thinking out loud JV. *Always gamble responsibly And you're a renowned quick starter from the gates (Schillaci) so I've been watching your tips closely ? Just need to remember who finishes well ... maybe DS? Gorg? Clinto?
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Leaderboard in the Tipping Comp 3 - JV7, Dappa Dan, Go the Biff, Dee Zephyr, Macca 2 - DeeSpencer 1 - Clintosaurus, Gorgoroth 0 - The Usual Suspects
2-2 was a fair result if we're being honest Wadda. England aren't much chop either but both teams won enough of the big moments to win 2 tests each. Compelling viewing all the same. Where we go from here is anyone's guess (in terms of building an A grade batting line-up) Right now, we're a ways off. Apart from an assortment of white-ball fixtures against various Nations we play Pakistan in 2 tests (mid to late Nov) and then 3 tests against the Kiwis from early December (Boxing day test & New year test included) England go to South Africa for 4 tests (Dec/Jan) and that will be an interesting series. Archer might create a bit of havoc on the sporting wickets in Sth Africa.
I thought it was a great piece of bowling by Leach. Labuschagne became unbalanced by a perfectly executed delivery. Not your normal stumping where the batsman charges the bowler.
There are other batsmen who I'd prefer to see who (IMO) are more suitable. Renshaw, Pucovski & Patterson all look good to me and there's almost certainly 1 or 2 others. And in Australian conditions there are any number of batsmen who can shine (including the aforementioned Warner, Harris, Bancroft, Head & Wade) We just continue to struggle away from home (notably in India & England)
A self fulfilling prophesy DJ?
Harris & Head can be added to that list DJ. Time for some new blood. We actually need 4 batsmen which is unprecedented. If Alex Carey was in the side we could bat him as high as no.5 whilst Mitch Marsh could maybe bat at no.7. Regardless, there's a lot of holes to fill. Yet here we are retaining the Ashes. Strange days indeed.
Yes true ... and as the race becomes an even greater prize for the Internationals they might end up closing the loop-hole for those 3yo European horses. Once there isn't the need for the lure of all things European, they may well turn the focus onto more local representation. Of course we don't exactly breed stayers here but European horses left here under the care of local trainers soon become our own. Adopted that way. It can't be turned into a race solely for 3yo European horses and the VRC would be fully aware of that. For now, it's fine, but I reckon the loophole will be closed once it looks like it might be getting out of hand. 3yo's properly weighted as 4yo's would add a few kilo's thus evening the score. In the meantime local trainers will continue to look for European 2yo staying types to purchase. But they don't come cheap as those selling know there's quite a reasonable demand. We just have to get used to the fact that the race is a truly international one and local punters need to learn how to read overseas form. With a heavy accent on Group form - Wins & Places. Forget times. Just horses that perform well at mainly G1 & G2 level. And then those dropping down to lightweights are the absolute standouts (such as Rekindling & Cross Counter)
