Macca

Michael 'Dee' ... there was the omen!

Durston only got into the Caulfield Cup field today but will now probably be 3rd or 4th favourite for the Melb Cup! Was 51.5kgs but might carry 54kgs after a penalty? Impressive win all the same and strong at the finish of a mile and a half Deauville Legend & Loft are the 2 though with their overseas form

We're going to see a lot of Giga Kick as it's a 3yo gelding The Coolmore? Rotal Ascot? The TJ Smith? Sky is the limit and it's unbeaten Commanding performance and it had been running some very slick times in 1100m races ... so the form was there Ended up getting the quinella x 150% so here's your virtual 🍺 @Mr Steve

Asfoora looks a horse ... won the Caulfield Sprint like it was a track gallop! Really unlucky in it's previous race at the Valley. A definite Blackbooker

Oh, thanks Got it ... and with the 25 I've put an exotic bet on the Everest Whilst I reckon Nature Strip will probably win (from barrier 12) the exotics can pay well if it doesn't win If I win big I'll buy you a virtual beer!!

No, not for me They do offer matched deposits sometimes (50%) but only when I don't have a winning weekend!!

Drawing wide (Benaud) might be the go too especially if the inside running is cut up It's a lottery today regardless so we're sure to see a number of roughies salute in Melb & Syd Good luck punters!

Leaning towards Alegron in the Caulfield Cup ... with the James Cummings/Godolphin polish Managed to get 14-1 which I regard as overs. An exotic bet as well as the dividends could be very healthy

Yeah Steve, I joined up and they then gave me a deposit match straight off (100%) ... always up for a freebie! Who isn't? They are also offering 20-1 for Anamoe in the Cox Plate (max $10 bet) Certainly very aggressive and they've got Matty Campbell & James Jordon on board I'm quite happy with Laddies but happy to cash in on promotions elsewhere

So the mail is that LJ is on a million a year on a 7 year contract If the Pies are paying $300k per year of Grundie's then we're up for $700k per year Would we have paid $1Million per year to LJ for 7 years? Probably not but that's what we might have had to come up with to keep him But even so, we get a way more advanced player for only $700k per year in comparison So pay the extra and keep LJ or pay a lot less and get a much better player (right now)

I've picked out a few roughies at Caulfield & Randwick. Not sure anything is a good thing on the heavy tracks Reckon Jacquinot can run well in the Everest ... drops down to 53kgs and is coming off a fast 1400m last start win (Golden Rose) 11.00/3.10 is good value. Nature Strip the one to beat. Giga Kick? As for the Caulfield Cup, it's a wide open race so I'll take out a wide exotic bet! Benaud & Allegron big shows though. Smokin' Romans in great form and should get into the finish. Duais? Polly Grey in the last race at Randwick is a big chance. Loves the wet

GWS could be a trading partner as they've got picks 15, 18 & 19 West Coast have picks 20 & 26

If we do use pick 37 then I'd say we've got 2 or 3 targeted draftees. The danger is if other clubs have their eyes on the same types and get in before us However, there's a chance that we trade up in the draft as picks (and future picks) can still be traded from now and right up until draft day. Just not any players, but picks? Yes. The new ruling came in last year or the year before So in theory, we could package up pick 37 with one of our F2's to get a pick in the low 20's in this year's draft. Unless of course we want to keep our strong hand for next year (2 x F1 & 2 x F2) At a guess I reckon it's 30/70 we trade up from pick 37 this season The club (and all the clubs) will know which players should be available in the 20's range so if we're tempted, we can act (soon enough) to get a pick in that area

Forgot to mention pressure acts across the ground and defensive pressure in our forward line ... in 2021 we seemed to have at least 3 lines of defence and often in line like the back 4 we see in soccer Not so in 2022 and I believe I'm right in saying that we went from 1st to 17th in that area. That's a stat that jumps out at you But we've acquired Hunter as an attacking midfielder (with good disposal skills) so he's more so been brought in to address our F50 entry issues (in my view)

I reckon we would have shifted our game plan anyway. Our ball movement into the forward line is/was not up to par ... especially for a team with as many good players that we have on our list It did work in 2021 but not in 2022. So you change things up and make adjustments As noted, we need to start running out games again so our fitness and run in the legs needs to be addressed

That's it, Gonzo And may the better team win on Sunday ... although the Jets have got a real chance of winning. Packers not playing well

Another excellent acquisition is Hunter and at virtually no cost. Fills a void on the wing and Lachie at 28 has got another 3-5 years left if augers well New start at a new club and he'll know that he will have to work hard to get into the team and then stay in the team. His best footy is very good (B+) Lachie could be part of a different approach to our game plan as alluded to in the post above by 'RRR' More precise movement of the ball (?) as seen with the teams that played in the PF's ... especially with our entries into the forward line (less chaos ball?)

rgoroth@layzie@Dee Zephyr@Go the Biff@Clintosaurus @JV7@DeeSpencer@Dappa Dan@titan_uranus@DemonDave @Dr. Gonzo @BDA@Gorgoroth Leaderboard Tipping Comp 2 - DeeSpencer, Gorgoroth, titan_uranus, JV7, Clintosaurus, layzie, Go the Biff, Macca* 0 - The Backmarkers *Denotes 1 bonus point awarded Just the 1 point on offer this week but an added bonus point is up for grabs if you can fly solo n.b. newcomers can join the comp at any time

We're going to be difficult to match-up against because of the acquisition of Grundy For the working model we only have to look at how we went about it with Gawn & Jackson (more than 2 years worth of a sample size) We'll go about it with a few differences but Grundy is a big upgrade on the actual output of Jackson. So the results should be more fruitful in an area where we already hold sway From what I've seen of Grundy he serves as a link player through the middle as well. Regularly exceeding 20 possessions which included a couple of seasons where he exceeded 500 possessions. That's apart from his stellar ruckwork In simple terms both ruckman can patrol a certain area of the ground swapping roles occasionally. The reason why we don't often see 2 ruckman in the starting 18 is that most teams usually only have 1 decent ruckman/follower We've got 2 and that is an advantage. And both just happen to be 2 of the very best

The club has brought Schache in as a back-up (forward, back or sometimes in the ruck) Low cost and versatile but not first choice. And there's probably at least 10 list spots that are regarded as not being starters. Role players and back-up role players, insurance for certain positions (for example, the ruck or KF, KB), development types, draftees and project players However I did notice that Josh picked up 15+ possessions against us in a 3 match stretch not so long ago. So we've noticed him and now acquired him Chances are Gawn and/or Grundy will miss a game or 2 so we'll need some sort of back-up in the ruck. Or we might want to manage/rest either player periodically It was either that or draft a beanpole 18yo late in the draft (and we haven't been going down that path in recent times ... for any sort of late picks) I wish him well

It's not quite over yet Teams can still trade draft picks (not players, obviously) from now right up until the National Draft And that would include future picks So pick 37 might not be done and dusted if we decide to bundle that pick with a F2 to acquire say, a pick in the early 20's in this year's draft That may or may not happen but it can happen

I'm happy with the deal that we ended up getting There was what he was actually worth vs a truckload of potential and/or what we originally paid for Jackson (pick 3) In raw terms an underperforming player with no more than C+ output wouldn't normally attract 2 x first rounders and a 2nd rounder Not even close At one stage I fell into the hype of generational talent but is that really going to happen? I've changed my mind on his future worth and reckon his best might be B or B+ (or less) This year he learned very quickly that opposition ruckman play for keeps. He lacked physicality and lacked presence For a supposed prototype midfielder of the future, he fell way short

Any pick we get for Weideman (3rd rounder?) could be bundled up with a F2 for a better placed pick in this year's draft And you're right, we've virtually abandoned using any 3rd rounder on a draftee. Makes sense too as the likelyhood of drafting a good player past pick 35 is not good You're probably better off with a delisted free agent as a DFA doesn't have to be trained up from scratch So a $500k* investment (over 2 years) on a pick 40 and beyond seems high risk *Salary, FD spend around that player etc etc

This is just a guess but I reckon we might use 1 or 2 of the F2's for a pick (or picks?) this year (moving up in the draft as well?) We've dealt with the GCS & GWS before so there's the conduit Thus keeping 2 x F1's for next year's draft ... and we can move up in next year's draft using those 2 F1's (along with any other picks we obtain)

We could do that as well as draft 2 players ... by my reckoning it would be 1st or 2nd round for draftees as that's where we've trended