Macca

GWS play a bruise-free style. Lots of nice skills but no substance. No fight Our blokes won't have too many sore spots ... 8 days off and we'll be fresh as for the Tigers (and that won't be bruise-free)

Been a good game to watch The Geelong big blokes up forward might end up being the difference (already 6 goals combined)

Well that's good to know ... I'll mention that to my mate (who prefers to stand at the games) By the way Gonzo, do a quick check on those footy fans that you know who went away for Easter. My friends/acquaintances stands at about 40% who are out of Melbourne And apparently the traffic is gridlocked (Peninsula?) heading back today $10 for a mid strength ... there's another category staying away - The Drinkers! (and there's a few of them!)

I was talking in general terms looking ahead and involving all the teams & games. Not just our team, GtB In principle, the players will end up clamming up so we shouldn't see many 50's given. I reckon it would be harder to stand still on the mark than to not remonstrate and nearly every player knows to stand still on the mark (now) The Lever incident and subsequent 50 stemmed from a ruling in favour of the GWS player (a ticky-touchwood high contact free kick that I've never agreed with) High contact should be paid for deliberate targeted actions only, otherwise players will exploit the grey area of high contact frees (and they have done, for decades) So if that Lever incident is play on, there's no remonstration The around the neck ruling (or high contact) is a blight on the game so much so that many now know how to milk high contact. Players cheat and they are allowed to get away with it (by the rulemakers, not the umpires) More than 10 years ago I said the exact same thing (here) But that's just my view. Most disagree on incidental high contact ... they want to leave the rule as it is. Therefore, the punters have to live with the consequences of ticky-touchwood high contact free kicks (and the subsequent frustrations that come with it) I might add that deliberate high contact is obvious which can and should remain reportable (much as it is with regards to League & Union ... incidental high contact is plan on with those sports)

Definitely going for the Hawks today ... not sure they are an ultimate threat (Hawks) but it would be great to see the Cats incur a setback

Like your post GtB but we don't know for sure what the 50 metre penalties are paid for ... we can't necessarily hear what a disgruntled player (or a player in the vicinity) is actually saying The waving of the arms may not be the reason as to why the penalty is applied but if that is the only reason (waving of arms), then I'm in agreement with others that the penalty doesn't fit the misdemeanour But we don't know for sure what is said and that's not likely to change as the players aren't mic'd up And as Axis pointed out in a post prior to yours, the players will fall into line much like they have with regards to standing still on the mark (allowing for the odd indiscretion)

Like all the other teams, we have a supporter base who have been locked up for 2 years so who can blame them for getting away on a long weekend? Because that's what a lot of people have done (gone away for Easter) That's apart from the myriad of other reasons as to why the crowds in general have dropped off. And there is not one particular reason ... more so the cumulative effect In no particular order ... No walk up access ( or cash customers) The tedious and long-winded ticketing system which again, especially effects the oldies ... and for all the trouble we go to we still could be sitting next to someone (for 3 hours) who has contracted covid (who can then pass covid on to the unsuspecting) The unnecessary noise (loud music) thrust upon spectators on a constant basis at the games Those who don't want to expose themselves to covid within the madding crowd (especially the over 50's) With covid, many are picking and choosing as to when they want to allow themselves to be exposed to the disease The state of the actual game ... the congested era has taken its toll. We might be addicted to the winning and the tribalism but a lot of games are unwatchable. Why would a neutral attend given that possible likelihood? The public transport system (which is often unreliable and often packed) Large 4k TV's to watch footy live as opposed to going to the game (that takes care of a lot of neutrals) The cost of food & beverages ... $9 for a beer is obscene Many would-be attendees often make a decision to go to the footy at the last moment ... or, that's what they used to do. That effects the walk-ups The lack of parking near the venues Bragging rights? At the ground one would much rather beat Essendon as opposed to GWS. The punters love the big occasion People being out of town on long weekends (such as Easter) The confusing timeslots and the lack of Saturday afternoon games (which many prefer - old schoolers) Nights games making it difficult for country members and kids to attend Many prefer to 'Stand' at the footy ... that can't be done anymore. You must sit in your allocated seat And people don't just buy a membership to attend games ... many buy a membership to support their club and have no real intention of attending many games. This is borne out by the percentage of actual attendees vs actual membership numbers (across all the teams) In summary, the biggest factors are covid related and thus, the neutrals and the covid-shy are the no-shows So the money is in broadcast rights, sponsorship, membership and the corporates. The AFL is losing out on cash customers and the walk-ups but do they care? Overly large crowd numbers is way less important these days As an example, the broadcast rights in 2017 amounted to about $2.5Billion ... in turn, because of that cash-cow amount of money, the dividends handed out to the clubs amounts to hundreds of millions of dollars (every year) Like most sports, AFL has become a TV game so the reality is that the AFL is following the money trail ... and the TV product improves every year. For instance, the use of the wide-angle this year is a real improvement For many, the TV 'experience' is really good ... and a much cheaper alternative. The Pubs are losing out too ... just put on the BBQ and invite people around The keen ones will still attend the games

Paris-Roubaix on tonight on SBS And there is already a large breakaway group

Did the rider of Big Parade lodge a protest? If not, I'm not sure that the stewards ever lodge by default In the UK & USA the stewards often do lodge autonomous protests but I can't remember the last time that has happened here Big Parade might have run it's race thus no protest ... just watched the replay - Big Parade looked spent

Got the early double with our picks along with the 5-1 win odds I got for Mamounia on Wednesday Had your pick to win in the big paying multi but was happy to use the place odds for 'WS' in a couple of other multi's And get this; I backed Kementari and it won - that's a first!! So Deep Speed (DZ's pick) will deliver a decent payout if it salutes!

I'm well and truly alive in my multi's with WS running on for 3rd. Got out to 3.10 the place as well Good get, Gorg

All 3 winning paying about 100-1 Using Witchchar Star for the place with the other 2 winning, the dividend is about 25-1

Grandslam has been scratched!

3 best bets in (so far) Mamounia has shortened but the value is there for any number of multi combo's The 3 winning in a multi is showing 250-1 (290-1 with a boost) whilst the 3 running the place is at the odds of about 12-1 (with a boost)

Got a big future but more so the way the way it won against that field (3 lengths to 2nd with a big gap to the rest) Ideal horse for the big sprints at the Valley & Caulfield A definite Blackbooker BH flew home again as it does but no match for the winner

Yeah I've gone with a wide exacta in the race ... bit like an each-way bet but that strategy has worked before when the value has got into the top 2

I got the exacta in the first so I'm up and running, Gorg Was only going to have a bet in the $500k event but the fields aren't too shabby and I'm having a day on the couch so why not! Savatoxl has been included by Steve so there's some value in the exotics if successful (including the exacta)

Or we could pluck the eyes out of all the choices I'm probably going to box 5 in an exacta and hope that my value/roughie choices can run in the first 2!!

Yeah they run from the shoot at Sale so only one turn over the 1100m/1200m (like Caulfield & Pakenham) And Lombardo has drawn well where as a few others have to work across to get onto the speed (notably In the Boat & Savatoxl) Lombardo is included! I'm going to include 'In the Boat' but 'Vainstream' is good value - ran a slick time winning 2 starts back ... at Sale!

Yeah I'd say so ... vaguely remember betting at Ascot (WA) previously on GF Including Sale today of course with $500k 'Country Discovery' A more than decent field too ... an exotic bet or a same race multi beckons! Thoughts? @Gorgoroth@Mr Steve@Dee Zephyr

The jockey (Alana Kelly) can claim 2kgs on Point Nepean

Same to you, DZ. Happy Easter! And I had Grandslam picked out as well ... J Kah just needs to get the horse into a nice position in the running (with cover) ... possibly 5th or 6th one-out from the fence (?) Seems a real progressive type Gorg ... drawn nicely for a good run on the speed. Can stalk 'Point Nepean' with a 3.5kg advantage in the weights (and over 2400m, that's significant)

2 best bets in so far and the place multi is already starting to show a bit of value (the win multi as well of course) There is some real value around at Sydney & Melbourne ... just a matter of getting a few collects so as to at least break even

Best Bet Saturday Caulfield R4 #12 Mamounia 6.00/1.90

Last big day at Randwick is where we've traditionally finished up on the best bets for the Autumn ... couple of big races too with the 'All Aged' & the 'Champagne St' Hopefully we can finish off with 4 winners!! You never know!