Demon Dynasty

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Road to Finals / GF - Triple Crown Update (to Rnd 7, 2020) V the Hawks Meters Gained Differential (looking for + 200 or more) ? +897 ✔️ Marks inside 50 Differential (any positive is a win but the higher the better) ? +10 ✔️ Contested Possession Differential (looking for a +10 or greater) ? +25 ✔️ Season Averages (the one that counts) Meters Gained Average Differential (looking for an average of + 200 or more) ? +99.2 ❌ A massive improvement on last week of 160 meters (on average). +897 against the Hawks is a huge difference. We have jumped three places to No.7 in the league. Not too shabby indeed. The top five with current ladder positions in parenthesis below. It is worth noting that only the top two clubs have a +200 (or greater) average here... 1. Power (1st) 2. Tigers (4th) 3. Cats (5) 4. Pies (3rd) 5. Lions (2nd) Marks inside 50 Average Differential (ideally we need to see a top 6 ranking) ? 4th! ✔️ Up five places from 9th last week to 4th is a great result with a +2.2 average differential. +10 a very nice differential win against the Hawks. The top 5... 1. Lions 2. Pies 3. Power 4. Demons 5. Tigers Contested Possession Average Differential (looking for +10 or more) ? +13 ✔️ Improving one place from 3rd to 2nd. The Pies just ahead with +14 average differential. Tracking very well here. The top 5... 1. Pies 2. Demons 3. Kangas 4. Cats 5. Power Not wanting to get too carried away just yet....but.... only one tick away from the magic triple crown

TOG% Correct DS against the Suns. However only 8 effectives in that match. Effectives probably a half decent indicator of reasonable ball use, by no means the ultimate indicator though. It's just a stat. I hear what you are saying though. Double that time and he should rack up about 14 to 16 which seems acceptable. However against the Hawks he was on substantially more game time @ 81% but racked up only 7 effectives. So 34% more TOG but one less effective disposal. Certainly not looking to judge him on one game though. My comment more applies to the trend and/or averages over the last 3 to 5 matches (approx) in terms of how he is tracking in the accumulation stakes. Ultimately as you say, quality is always better than quantity here. P.S. the lower stats with more game time now makes sense given the cheek unjury in the first quarter. That argument (Hawks component) is now null and void.

Note Erratum: The averages table above is to the end of Rnd 7, 2020 not round 6 as posted. I only keep turnovers but Jnr your footy nose is sniffing things out pretty well. The stats backing up your clanger (turnover) comment. As you say 2019 is a low benchmark for most. The exceptions, referred to by Kent, are Harmes & Salem who finished the season ranked 2nd & 3rd respectively in 2019 in these tables. So they're coming off a high base (2019 not so much a high base in a normalish season!). If we add 20% back for the time reduction factor we can take a look at their true position in 2020 vs 2019 Harmes - 2020 average score (so far to Rnd 7) ? 2.275 vs 2019 ? 3.850 Now we just add back 20% for time difference vs 2019 ? 2.275 x 1.20 = 2.730. Adjusted % difference from 2020 compared to 2019 is 29%. Still significant but not -40.91% as shown in the averages table. I will take Jnr's word that he is being set a task/s suggesting he may not be as freed up as he might have been in general in 2019. Salem - i'm not going to go through the above exercise again but you get the drift and can work this adjusted % out for yourself if you like. He is probably somewhere around 20%ish or so off not the -34% shown. Still a drop but off a highish base last season and as Jnr has said, seems to be picking things up the last few games. Oscar - The fewest turnovers this season on the entire list. Jnr is on to this one. He is also intercepting substantially more, significant increase in average meters gained and getting a few more average effective disposals vs 2019. Fitter, stronger longer!? ? Brayshaw - adjust as per Harmes if you want a more realistic % change vs 2019. Probably only about 18% off or so. He has improved his average turnovers vs 2019 however. Ranked equal 2nd here alongside Clarry in 2019, second only to Melksham at No.1 In 2020 he has improved here a little ranked 9th. No time to rummage through significant average stat differences in the two seasons for Gus tonight. Might take a look sometime later though.

Ideally you want both Fork but a big yes if there's no options.

I think this is a key factor that all very good to very good teams need at least one of to take the next step. Maybe not so much once they become successful but certainly in the journey getting there. My only issue is the involvement / form aspect. You can't just bring an enforcer (threat / perceived threat) and somebody who just hurts the opponent imho. At some stage he has to improve in getting the ball, either as a receiver or accumulator (or both). Super low at the mo and this probably can't go on indefinitley without his place in the team coming under the radar. As the great Ronald Dale was once heard to say "Give me possessions and i'll shut up". Will take a while to regain peak fitness though given the amount of time out so a bit of patience needed. No Casey also not helping here. Having said that let's hope any cheek problem isn't a major issue. Certainly no questioning vander's attack and gusto on game day. White line fever pretty much every time and was a big factor in our latter 2018 form / finals appearances. When he starts showing a level of run and fitness that sees him pushing forward into space at times and taking a few inside 50 marks & goaling here and there then i'll be more convinced that the old AVB is back, somewhere near his best!

Weighted Average Scores at the end of Rnd 6, 2020 2020 season is roughly 3.7% up on 2019's average (so far). The game against the Hawks saw us 14.7% ahead of 2019 as mentioned above. Given how bad 2019 was, anyone sitting on about -30% or more are still 10% (or more) off their 2019 average (adjusted for 20% less game time this season) and in a fair spot of bother (at present) in a form sense. At least statistically anyway. You be the judge! Tracc effectively about 59% up on his 2019 season statistically. Can't say he is going that well as far as the naked eye's concerned, especially given the extreme lows we hit in 2019, but he sure is looking the goods. Player 2020 Weighted Score 2020 Rank 2019 Weighted Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019 Christian Petracca 3.646 1 2.616 39.37 10 9 Max Gawn # 3.517 2 3.256 8.02 4 2 Clayton Oliver 3.333 3 4.643 -28.21 1 -2 Jack Viney 3.013 4 3.068 -1.79 5 1 Oscar McDonald 2.583 5 1.877 37.61 26 21 Steven May 2.467 6 2.446 0.86 14 8 Ed Langdon 2.400 7 - - - - Alex N-Bullen 2.338 8 1.984 17.82 21 13 James Harmes 2.275 9 3.850 -40.91 2 -7 Christian Salem 2.270 10 3.448 -34.16 3 -7 Michael Hibberd 2.160 11 2.124 1.69 20 9 Mitchell Hannan 2.094 12 1.325 58.04 36 24 Harley Bennell 2.033 13 - - - - Angus Brayshaw 2.025 14 2.894 -30.03 6 -8 Jay Lockhart 1.910 15 1.660 15.06 31 16 Jake Lever 1.908 16 2.313 -17.51 17 1 Aaron Vandenburg 1.819 17 - - - - Sam Weideman 1.813 18 1.818 -0.28 23 5 Tom McDonald # 1.638 19 2.150 -23.81 19 0 Adam Tomlinson # 1.613 20 - - - - Neville Jetta 1.569 21 2.264 -30.70 18 -3 Nathan Jones * 1.475 22 2.711 -45.59 8 -14 Bayley Fritsch 1.396 23 2.641 -47.14 9 -14 Kysaiah Pickett 1.185 24 - - - - Joel Smith 1.158 25 - - - - Toby Bedford * 1.150 26 - - - - Jake Melksham 1.067 27 1.931 -44.74 23 -4 Trent Rivers 1.033 28 - - - - Luke Jackson 0.950 29 - - - - Jayden Hunt 0.858 30 1.958 -56.18 22 -8 Mitchell Brown * 0.625 31 - - - - Charlie Spargo * -0.250 32 1.375 -118.18 23 -9 Average Team Score -Top 22 49.899 59.623 -16.31 # Hit outs to advantage not included. * Only 1 match played - score does not qualify as an average Stats courtesy of footywire.com

As you say 640.... time to look forward. Looking through the MFC rear vision has too many car crashes to dwell on too long. May end up having one myself!

I said that at the time, including on here and was howled down by Saty (not that that's an unusual occurrence!) and a few others. Disastrous decision by the club.

Yes now that you mention it i did notice Nev running up the ground a few times and making a few plays Jnr. That makes sense and hopefully freshen him up a little from playing that on the shoulder type role as you say. He has a lovely kick on him so why not free him up a bit more and use it in more dangerous positions.

6. Tracc 6. Maxy 4. Clarry 3. Viney 2. Langdon 1. May

Thanks CD. Just don't look too closely or you might find too many holes in my assertions! Amateur warrior here. The other side to it is, Goody may have used some of the zone set ups (slightly more pressure or slightly less / higher / shallower etc) on other occasions and depending on skill level of the opponent it might have worked a treat. But the same set up then might get picked apart by a highly skilled unit the very next week. I'm not saying one style/tweak of method is necessarily better and Goody should use this method vs that etc. But the old saying "horses for courses" might be at play here. And it would appear SG and the team itself (eg; its ability to adapt in game and learn from past mistakes being a key ingredient to success on the field) ... is now starting to learn from experience that some horses are wet trackers but put them on a good one and...well you get the drift.

Good point Bin. Constant play on was really hurting us. They finally woke up a little after the match against the Tiges in this area as you say. The other part about running in waves yes. Also i've noticed a few more handballs to players positioned wider of immediate contest, opening up the channels and giving the receiver more time to execute and less bodies in front to spot up targets. I can't recall against GC, but we seemed more intent on switching y'day as well. All good signs if they can keep up these improved habits and not revert back to 2019 and the first 4 to 5 matches this season.

Not from wear i'm sitting CDP. Goody has been experimenting with a variation of the rolling zone (loose to tight variants) and the high press (half press and somewhat higher press, no spare out the back, a spare out the back etc) since 666 came in last season. Since the match against the Cats we moved away from pretty much giving up the front half of the ground in a pretty loose rolling zone (with no spare) from the get go till nearing the end of the 3rd (when the game was pretty much lost), and effectively conceding the match early. We then moved away from a loose zone in the front half, tightened up, pressured down hard on the man but still lost pretty badly trying to come from too far behind. Compare this to after the match against the Cats. Mostly playing man on man / or a tight pressure down zone (early on...and staying in the game early) to maintaining a slightly tighter zone once the game opens up (usually much later in the match but we are still in it or in touch). The exception was the Tigers, where the change to a pressure down style took place early. We stayed in the match and with them early before their cleaner disposal and better conversion in front (vs the reverse of those for us for much of the match) took its toll after quarter time. This change up in game style, particularly team defence early, means we have our teeth into the match (or have been) since the get go post the match against the Cats and, in my view, this began to pay dividends from the first quarter against the Tiges and has improved each week since then culminating in today's result. The replacement of T-Mac with Weid has also seen a big improvement inside 50. Giving the team a genuine leading target (structure / options coming inside 50, options out the back on occasions with room being created when Weid is dragging his opponent out on the lead) and bringing the ball to ground at the feet of our smalls and small mediums like Hannan & Kozzy a little closer to goal instead of the many shallow entries we were seeing up until the match against the Tigers (but no genuine in form KF to take advantage), along with the return of Harley and some manic tackling inside 50 / return to form from the likes of Hannan. Langdon and Salem (pushing up through the middle) have also been outstanding (Langdon all season....Salem in the last two matches) and added some outside run / class that wasn't there last season. As has Harley of course as he ramps up his game time slowly (75% last two matches vs 50% in his first match). Hibb's run off HB and the return of a much improved O-Mac (vs last season) has also been a huge help across HB. Lever has also begun to hit a bit of form. May in his best form (for us) so far. Added together, this has taken our back 6 to another level, making us even more difficult to score against. I would argue our back 6 is now better than what we had in 2018 which augers well going forward.

Rnd 7, 2020 Giants Stadium - The Hawks vs the Demons Too early to say but after a solid thumping of our old nemesis and two wins in a row, could we finally be seeing a turning of the tsunami tide that was 2019 and the first 5 rounds (the win against the Blues the exception)? Numbers can be dodgy as we know, but sometimes when used comparatively and with enough games of data, we just might be able to deduce a bit of a trend or a shift happening that paints a bit of a canvas & compliments what we have watched on the field. I would say we have possibly just seen that shift take place today in a very good follow up from last weeks gritty win. What is leading me to that likely conclusion? In short, mostly the team weighted score from today. Same method, same weightings, same data going in to the rating. Below shows how we performed today for the whole 22 vs the average 'best' 22 score from season 2019 AND 2018 adjusted to account for the 20% less game time in 2020... Today's team weighted score ? 56.475 vs 2019 ? 59.623 Today's score looks to be under. However, adjust for 2020 time difference and it's a substantial improvement of 14.7%! Lets take a look at the team's (best 22) average score under Goody in 2018 ? 69.528 Again we appear to be substantially under, but wait....adjust for the 20% factor and.... it's a marginal win today by 1.2% over the 2018 season's average!! No mean feat indeed! Also today was our best top 6 and bottom 6 score for this season and i would take a bet (without trolling through my records) better than anything we produced last season. Without going the crow too early, this augers very well if we can keep the core of this present 22 together for the remainder of the season. On an individual level. The games of Tracc and Maxy, particularly Tracc, were something else today. They weren't alone but boy they sure stood out. How do you split them? Probably Tracc gets the nod. Some of Tracc's stats ? 16 contested, 23 effective disposals @ 79% (+ 6% on the AFL average DE%). A massive 14 score involvements, 431 meters gained (2nd only to Clarry with a huge 505), 3 marks inside 50, 5 intercepts and a goal. Big M ? 16 contested, 17 effective disposals @ 77%. 6 Contested marks, 7 score involvements and the most intercepts @ 8. And this doesn't include the many hit outs to advantage. Great game all round. Viney ? lead the clearance count with 9, 15 effective disposals @ a clean 79%! 6 tackles and 7 score involvements! Clarry ? also had a pretty special day with 20 effectives @ 69%, 4 clearances, 9 inside 50s, 6 tackles and 4 score involvements. His performance just marred a little with 7 turnovers (the most on the day for the Demons). Player Score Rank Christian Petracca 5.675 1 Max Gawn # 4.300 2 Jack Viney 4.250 3 Clayton Oliver 3.475 4 Steven May 3.025 5 Ed Langdon 2.950 6 Oscar McDonald 2.850 7 Sam Weideman 2.725 8 Christian Salem 2.650 9 Michael Hibberd 2.650 9 Mitchell Hannan 2.500 11 Bayley Fritsch 2.400 12 Jake Melksham 1.975 13 Harley Bennell 1.950 14 Jake Lever 1.925 15 Angus Brayshaw 1.875 16 Jay Lockhart 1.775 17 Luke Jackson # 1.650 18 Neville Jetta 1.550 19 Kysaiah Pickett 1.500 20 James Harmes 1.450 21 Aaron Vandenberg 1.375 22 Team Score 56.475 Top 6 23.675 Bottom 6 9.300 # Hit outs to advantage not accounted for Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Smart tap on by Kozzy! What a game by Traccstar! Him & Maxy BOG

That's the silly handball Clarry needs to eliminate from his game as much as possible

over the old enemy bin ... why not ?

And it has to be said.... the forward line's functioning much better. No T-Mac

That touch of class when needed. A joy to watch

+ Kozzy!!! ....better than Buddy/Roughy & Cyril!!?

the Hawks have been given every tiggy touch high free imaginable.

Woo hooo JACKY SON!

Weids come on son. Thats the one that puts the game almost beyond them.