binman
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Viewing Topic: Season Preview - The Mongrel Punt
Everything posted by binman
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Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
I think the coaches believe it is optimal and i very much doubt we will change the tactic much. As flash notes above kicking to the pockets as opposed to more centrally supports our model of trapping the ball and the opposition in particular areas, in this instance tour forward line, and making it super hard for them to transition. As Flash also notes, it is a trade off - sure it is harder to be accurate but that is offset by the fact that teams simply do not hurt us on transition (I'm pretty sure we conceded the least number of points from our back half). This really hurts teams, like the dogs, that rely on scoring on transition. So many of our strategies are underpinned by a philosophy of playing the risk/reward percentages. For example playing along the boundary, kicking long to Gawn after a point, getting territory and our (much anaylsed) clearance system are all examples of playing the percentages ie approaches that statistically over the journey will concede less goals and create more for us. Kicking to the pockets is in the same boat. The other element, one that i hadn't thought of last year, relates to my comment on the previous page in this thread about how we use the clock as a weapon. That's to say we suck time out of the clock and in doing so give the opposition less time to score and less opportunity to seize and/or take advantage of any momentum. I'm guessing at least half the time the ball is kicked to the pocket we get a stoppage of some sort. And then we crowd our inside 50 zone and often there is a secondary stoppage. If the opposition win and dump kick it out it often comes straight back in. All of this sucks heaps of time from the clock. And no doubt is super frustrating for the opposition, again particularly at team like the dogs, who are used to winning the ground ball in their back half and sweeping it up the other end of the ground. And if a point is kicked, we allow the short kick to the pocket but then make it super hard to clear the zone, usually forcing frustrated opposition players to kick long down the line to one of our talls. How many times last year did we see frustrated defenders holding onto the ball for ages looking for options. Again all this sucks valuable time from the clock and doesn't allow the opposition to get into any rhythm or to play fast. There was a fantastic example of our approach in one of the late season games i watched recently (i can't recall exactly which one, but i think it was the hawks game). One of our players had the ball at center half forward (Fritter?) and there was no one in our 50 metre arc expect Kozzie who was running toward goals, with a defender on his hammer. The ball could of easily have been kicked out in front of Kozzie in the corridor and there was every chance he would have run on to it and scored an easy goal. Instead it was kicked towards the boundary, had too much on it and went over for a throw in. BT was flummoxed. But going to the boundary was the percentage play because whilst Kozzie might have been a 70-30 chance of scoring if the ball had been kicked into the corridor, if his opponent won the ball it would have been easily rebounded as it would haver been in the corridor, and all our forwards had pressed up to help our defence so there was no help. Instead, whilst we had lower chance of an easy goal, there was still a good probability of doing so (maybe 50-50?) and when we didn't, we got a stoppage, reset, gave our forwards and mids time to crowd the forward line and gave our defenders time to press up and create the wall to stop transition. Goody's comments are interesting about looking create more scoreboard pressure, and perhaps being more offensive. My feeling is that rather than than that being an indication we will use the corridor as the go to spot, it will mean we look to surge and go all out attack more often, and in doing so turn the risk/reward dial to risk for longer. Which will mean more kicks to the corridor, but also perhaps more rebounds and scores on transition from the opposition.
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Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
Agree that accuracy is an area we can improve - particularly by non regular forwards like Oliver and Tracc (Brown, Fritter and Tmac are all statistically very accurate i would have thought). But i think it is actually pretty hard to compare teams because the pure accuracy number does not take into account where the shots are taken from. Much to some fans frustration we often kick to the pockets, meaning many shots are from difficult angles. I suspect that Brisbane and Sydney (who top the accuracy table) go more centrally and therefore have more shots from better angles than we do. The other issue is how close to goal kicks are - obviously if you get lots of goals running into open goal squares your accuracy is going to be better. When we open up sides, as we did in the Grand final, we swarm teams and get more of those goals where we tic tac and get it to a free player running into an open goal. I reckon Jackson got half of his goals that way last season and fritter also got a bunch of them. When on top we also use the corridor more often, as we did in the GF. There was discussion about us kicking to the picket in this thread back in April last year. This post from that discussion covers why i think we go via the pockets so often.
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Redraft the AFLW
The change i would make is to the timing of the season. I know the timing of this season is a function of COVID, and I know the AFL don't want to run the AFLW head to head with the AFL, but starting the season in the heat of summer is stupid. They should start the AFLW season in say early Feb and play the grand Final in the first week of the AFL bye rounds, which this year starts 3 June. Yes that would mean the AFLW would go head to head with the AFL for three months or so, but they would get two months of clear air until the AFL season proper starts and then the opportunity for stand alone Grand Final at a time when the AFL season gets a bit stale. That set up would affect the state women's comps i suppose but if the finals started early May half the players (ie the ones not in final's teams) would be available by mid may for their local teams. And in any case the current set up impacts the local teams in so far as the women have to train for their local teams and then kick of training for the AFLW almost immediately those seasons finish. Which can't be helpful for either comp. The other change i'd make is that all games should be played in AFL venues or on grounds with proper grandstands and AFL standard surfaces. To support this they should advance plans to make Princess park (or Arden street perhaps) into the Victorian AFLW hub (but with Geelong could continue to use Kardinia Park) and replicate that model in the other states as far as possible. Play all games at these hubs. They need to create a playing environment where the effects of the wind are minimised, because if there is a strong wind the game becomes really scrappy and crap to watch because they use smaller balls and obviously they are not as powerful as men so the ball doesn't penetrate. it often becomes a territory game and poor skills get exacerbated. So of course that would mean no games at Casey. Or Punt road oval The other problem for the AFLW is that each team has adopted AFL defensive systems and the mantra of pressure being fundamental. Which is all well and good, and it is incredible the ferocity the women crack in, but the defensive systems and pressure impact the skills too much and as a result many games are devolving into scrappy combat with huge numbers of players around the ball and crazy numbers of tackles. We can't change that part of the game, its here to stay, but uniform AFL standard grounds that offer some protection from the weather will go a long way to help as more kicks will hit targets, skills will be better and kicks for goal will be more accurate.
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Harry Petty Out for 4-6 Weeks
Tommo was terrific. Reliable, strong one on one, a terrific kick and a key part of the structure and system in the first third of the season. But i reckon it is important to note that he and Petty played pretty different roles. Tommo was really much more a lock down defender that played tight man on man. More often that not he was also the deepest player in the goal keeper role that Omac played. With Petty in the team, the structure is much more fluid, with May often being the deepest, but Petty also rolling back into that slot, and less frequently Lever too. As result Petty gets up the ground more than Tommo did. And Lever, Petty and May swap opponents more often than was the case with Tommo in the team. But the big difference is Petty was much more offensive than Tommo, much more likely to zone off his man and of most significance much more likely to take intercept marks. I suspect they will want to replicate that same system (ie the one with Petty in the team). Tommo might be able to play in a similar fashion to Petty, so he might slot straight in, but i wonder if they might go with Smith. Where that would leave Tommo i'm not sure, but i have little doubt Petty will come straight back in once he is ready to go, so perhaps they are better to find another role for Thommo anyway.
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2022 Champion Data Rankings
Nic nat? In all the time I've watched footy, he is the most over rated player i have ever seen. Super talented, crazy athleticism for such a big fella and does some freakish things, but that package distracts from his low numbers and the fact he has never been elite level fit. Watched the wc game the other night and gawn destroyed him - in large part because nic nst was totally gassed after 10 minutes each quarter.
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2022 Champion Data Rankings
No hate. No care either. But any metric that does not rate the game's best ruck (by the length of the Flemington straight) as elite is flawed.
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Scott: 2021 Cats/Dees Prelim Should've Been Postponed
Forget covid, the biggest medical mystery confounding the world's best medical minds is the rohan syndrome. What to make of an otherwise fit young man, an elite athlete no less, coming down with a debilitating sickness every September. Cause? They don't know. They only know the symptoms - an inability to perform his job to anywhere near a satisfactory level and a violent allergic reaction to leather forcing him to avoid the football at all costs. Confounding.
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GAMEDAY: AFLW Rd 06 vs GWS Giants
I wonder if it was related to tjhe game time being shifted. Someone forgot to update the automatic starter?
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GAMEDAY: AFLW Rd 06 vs GWS Giants
No. Very frustrating. And no free to air coverage
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Scott: 2021 Cats/Dees Prelim Should've Been Postponed
Scott seems pretty unpopular, even with his own fans, but I've always quite liked him. But I lost a lot of respect gor him after the prelim when he made his vague references about excuses. And then later revealed the supposed illness players were suffering from. No doubt in my mind, in spite of his 'take nothing from Melbourne' crap, that part of his motivation was to diminish our victory. Can't stand that sort of disrespectful rubbish. Such poor form And now I've lost more respect for him. Raising the issue now, some four months later, is pathetic. Why do it? The dees will look forward to playing that bunch of whiners I'm sure. There is a chasm between us the cats - both in terms of talent, but perhaps more importantly, a game plan that can win finals. In addition to dalhsus and narkle being available, I'm pretty sure Higgins (a player they could surely only have traded in because they thought they were in the premiership window) was also available. Higgins is almost a like for like for close. So as you say they had options. And elected not to use them. That's on Scott.
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Next mens open training session
If you are in Melbourne 'till the end of Feb the dees are playing a practice match against the roos at Casey fields on 24 Feb at 11am. It will be open to the public.
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2022 AFL Premiers Gold Logo Guernsey
I've been cancelled!
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PRACTICE MATCH: vs North Melbourne Streamed LIVE on Kayo
No, i think only kangaroos
- Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
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Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
I hadn't heard that (about goody coaching from the bench to get a feel for momentum). Makes a lot of sense and gels with one of the key things i've picked up watching the replays from last season - how dam good we are at absorbing sustained opposition pressure and negating any momentum they have. So many times teams have stretches of relative dominance, but don't hurt us on the scoreboard. I watched the Port game the other night and the third quarter was almost a mirror of the dogs' third quarter in the GF. If anything Port were even more on top than the dogs, but like the dogs threw everything they had us at us. But for all their effort, Port, like the dogs, could only manage two goals in the third. They got within 5 points with their second. We then kicked an answering goal, against the run of play, and seized the momentum. We had a shot at goal for a point almost immediately and then 3 minutes after our first goal of the third, kicked our second to take the lead back out to 3 goals. And it was game over. Port had fired their best - and last - shot and we held them at bay in the last. What was incredible about that game is watching it again, Port had good stretches where they were on top, yet we looked in control all game. How good we were at absorbing sustained opposition pressure and negating their momentum was evident watching the games during the season. But what i have really noticed more watching the replays in the last few weeks is how we go about doing so. Which is where your comment about goody coaching from the bench to get a feel for momentum intersects. Most teams try to wrest back momentum by scoring a goal themselves. Footy 101. But we seem to be happy to simply absorb pressure and make it hard for teams to score. And a big part of that, an element i think is unique to the dees, is we are really happy (well happy is probably the wrong word - prepared?) for the ball to be in our defensive half for long stretches. Unlike most teams we don't panic or take big risks. And we are happy to dump kick it out of our 50, even if it is likely to come straight back because the other team have a wall set up. We just deal with it again when it comes back inside 50. So, we negate. But what i have really noticed is what we do once we score and stop the opposition's momentum - we attack, and switch from a defensive mindset to an aggressive one. Like holding your serve in tennis after getting a break, we lock in the change in momentum with one or two quick follow up goals. It reminds me of boxing. Absorb pressure, let your opponent tire, land a punch that stops their momentum - and then attack and get all the momentum. But unlike your opponent, take full advantage of that momentum Another key element in that battle for control of momentum athat i really picked up on is how we use the clock as a weapon, something I hadn't fully appreciated. It reminds me a bit of how soccer teams look to manipulate time left. Its like the clock is another team mate. Control is the key word. We control the tempo and the clock so much and so well. A big difference between the home and way games and the finals is in season often once we have got the momentum back, and got the lead out to 3 plus goals we go back to control mode. Which explains why so many of our wins were in the 3-5 goal range. But in the finals, particularly the prelim and GF, once we got momentum we never went back into control mode. We just kept attacking - which explains how high our scores were. I expect we will see exactly the same pattern in 2022. Which can be frustrating to watch in season as you want them to put teams away and get a percentage boost. But watching the replays you really get sense of how much energy they conserve by not going all out attack wire to wire. Again, the Port game is good example. We won the game only kicking 4 goals in the second half (though frustratingly we kicked 10 points in the second half!). As i noted we absorbed their pressure in the third. Despite it only being a 3 goal difference at 3 quarter time, Port never looked a chance in the last and we were happy to control the tempo and and suck time from the clock. Port were stuffed and if we had gone all out attack we could have beaten them by 10 goals. But at what cost? Save your legs.
- Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
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Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
You make an excellent point about Jackson, his post hit out work and his scope for his improvement. I hadn't really considered that in likelihood he is going to get better! I watched the Port game the other night and one of goals came from a center clearance, where Jackson was in the ruck. The ruck contest was halved but Jackson managed to tap the ball forward with an open palm to Trac, who was on the move, took a few steps and launched in deep inside 50. So clever from Jackson. I love the way Jackson and Gawn coordinate ruck duties - it look really organic and fluid. And it means Gawn can be really flexible in terms of dropping back into defence or pushing forward. As you suggest Jackson will only improve his ruck craft and will get fitter and stronger. A scary thought. And to your question about changes to clearances, this improvement may well bring some changes. For one, Jackson will be better and with his leap might win more center clearances. Two, as he gets stronger he will become even more a weapon at around the ground stoppages. So he is likely to be more effective and win more clearances around the ground. And he might take more of them. And lastly he may end up doing more minutes in the ruck which might mean for instance gawn takes more throw in up forward. As for Gus, no i can't see them moving him from the wing. Watching the games again has really reinforced how important he was to our system and structure last year. Goody loves consistency and i think he will refrain frorm too many changes. The other thing is we a have a surfeit of contested ball winners, so he is not really needed on that front. Makes it pretty hard for Rosman and Baker to get into the team. You're right about Thommo. I can't see him taking Petty's role. So where does he play? I wondered the same thing about Hunt. Watching the games again i was reminded that he was really unlucky to get injured as Bowey made it impossible to drop him and its hard to see how they both play. I really liked what he brought tot he side last year and i'd love to see him back in the team. And Jordon is in the same boat. He was fantastic for us last year. But he he has to force his way back into the side all over again.
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Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
Thanks for the stats IT - they make for interesting reading. I had planned to watch last season in order - one a week culminating in the GF just before the 2022 season starts. My thought was to post some short comments about each game - i even started a thread for it! But it took a while for me to get keen to watch them again and once i did have just watched them at random times (ie not weekly). And i didn't feel like over analyzing them and have just been enjoying them for enjoyment sake. So haven't bothered with a running commentary on them. That said, some interesting themes on the tactical front have emerged for me, things I missed or didn't fully appreciate during the season. I'll post some of those thoughts in this thread once i finish watching the season. But a reflection on clearances. Coincidentally, i watched the Dogs round 19 game last night (after a slow start i'm ahead of schedule). It really reinforced my thoughts at the time that Goody was playing ducks and drakes in that game - keeping his tactical powder dry so to speak. One example was our clearances. Goody replicated the round 11 set up in terms of Harmes running with Libba (i'd describe it as a soft tag), not locking down Macrae at all (barely put any defensive work into him) and allowing Daniel to be free behind the stoppage (defensive side) and play his customary sweeper/distributor role. Macrae had a whopping 38 possessions, and with 9, their equal most clearances. Critically, he also had 8 inside 50s and 9 score involvements (and 532 metres gained). Daniel had 34 possessions, 5 clearances, 2 inside 50s and six score involvements (and 415 metres gained). But come Grand Final Goody changed this set up. He didn't run even a soft tag on Libba - just allowed Viney (and sparrow when giving jack a chop out) to go head too head with the him. Libba's numbers were almost the same in round 19 and the GF. I predicted before the GF that Goody would not allow Daniel so much space. But whilst he tightened up on Daniel in the second half, he largely replicated the round 19 approach. And i think he did so because Daniels' influence is over rated. I focused a bit on Daniel when watching the round 19 replay last night and as was the case in the GF, so many of his possessions are just fluff - lateral short kicks that don't facilitate a switch or create scoring opportunities. And they give us time to set up our defensive structure ahead of the ball. In the GF, Daniel had, on paper, arguably a better game than round 19. He had 37 possessions (22 of which were uncontested), 631 meters gained and 5 inside 50s. But critically, he could only manage 2 clearances and a paltry (for a player getting so many possessions) 2 score involvements. Salem's numbers in the GF make for an interesting comparison given they play a similar role. Despite having 10 fewer possessions, Salem had 8 more meters gained (639), 2 more inside 50s and of most significance, SIX more score involvements. Daniel, despite his high numbers, didn't really hurt us in any of the four (inc. the preseason match) games we played against them in 2021. But McRae did. So in the biggest game of all, for the first time, Goody, put a lot of defensive work into Macrea (something i did correctly predict). And it a had huge impact on how effective the dogs were when winning a clearance and indeed their overall fortunes. The numbers tell the tale - 11 less possessions than round 19, 5 less clearances and 144 less metres gained. Reflecting Goody's tactical shift to deny Macrae time and space and limit his impact at stoppages, he had 6 less uncontested possessions - important because of how damaging he is with any time and space. But the key numbers are inside 50 and score involvements. In the GF, compared to round 19, Macrae had 5 less inside 50s and an incredible 5 fewer score involvements. I know there are stats about scores from clearances, but frustratingly i think Champion data lock them up as i can't find any. Really the critical stat is how often a team score directly from a clearance. Macrea is most damaging when the Dogs win a clearance and feed it out to him. We basically took that strength away and as a result really limited his impact. Conversely, compared to round 19 (and indeed all previous 2021 games), we were incredibly effective in terms of scoring from center clearances in the GF. For mine that is in large part a function of Goody keeping his tactical powder dry. He refused to show his hand with clearances and clearly they were working on different set ups and set plays for use in the finals. The employed some of these to devastating effect right through the finals. We were brilliant all season at absorbing pressure and not allowing teams to really hurt us when on top (save a handful of examples) - and responding finally with a goal of our own. What i found interesting when watching the replays in terms of clearances is that often we followed up that goal with another quick one from a center clearance to wrest back momentum completely. There was good example in the third q of the round 17 Port game. I wonder if that is a specific tactic, one that involves going to a particular center square set up that is infrequently used (but practiced throughout the season at training) that is maybe a more high risk, high reward (eg an aggressive set up ahead of the ball) set up/set play. In terms of next season, i agree they will tinker with things in terms of clearances. But there's no value in showing all your cards in the home and away season as opposition coaches will just go to town on them. So i think by in large they will keep the same set up and systems they used in the 2021 and work on their surprise set ups to use as required in home and away matches and dial them up comes finals.
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The Members' Brief
- TRAINING: Friday 28th January 2022
Thanks George. What days and time do they train at Casey?- TRAINING: Friday 28th January 2022
I can't seem to find info about training times etc on the MFC website. Does anyone know when the next session at Goshs park is?- GAMEDAY: AFLW Rd 4 vs AdelaideÂ
I think Daisy's lack of pace would be exposed as a tagging mid. Zanks and Paxy both had shockers i thought. Pressure was ok but so may fumbles when under pressure, particularly Paxy.- GAMEDAY: AFLW Rd 4 vs AdelaideÂ
These two comments are absolute rubbish.- GAMEDAY: AFLW Rd 4 vs AdelaideÂ
That was my key take away too. I'm curious about the tactical evolution of AFLW and women's football in general. There are any number of tactical elements that are the same as the AFL (eg pressure being fundamental, use of zones ect) - but in many ways AFLW is a different game, so i assume some bespoke tactics are developed (Dees in October i'd be interested in your thoughts on this idea). Stinear is obviously trying to implement a game plan based on precision kicking, quick play on after marks (often with a handball to player running past) and lots of handballs. This game plan differs from the men's team quite a bit. It actually reminds me of how the dogs' mens team plays. And like the dogs men's team i think it is model susceptible to really high opposition pressure, like Richmonds' in the first quarter and the saints until 3 quarter time. And of course like that applied by the Crows. Too many links in the chain that can be broken. The crows actually played a lot like our men's team do - repeat entries, high press, supper pressure, win the post clearance contests, surge it forward etc etc. And like our mens team they have the best defence, averaging something like 16 points per game against, which is nuts. But that is not to say Stinear should change his game plan. If he and his team believe that is the best model - and have trained all pre season on that model - then he should stick with it. If the Goodwin era has any lessons, then surely backing in the coach in terms of their choses tactical model is one of them- COVID Disruptions 2022
Chill man - TRAINING: Friday 28th January 2022