DeeSpencer

Josh Bruce had 2 disposals against us, manned by Tomlinson for a portion of the game. Matt Taberner - who’s actually handy at his best - had 6 disposals last night. Felt like 2. There’s no way to describe a 1 possession game as good but I don’t think it was Sam’s worst

It’s a bit harsh to compare Harmes to Brayshaw straight up because Harmes really hasn’t played much on ball this year. He’s spent a lot of games predominantly at half forward, plus the 3rd winger minutes and then been the 5th guy on ball in short bursts (even less than Sparrow). He’s often getting the ball in the tricky half forward spots and then doing what every player bar Spargo does in those spots! Far easier to hit targets or safe long kicks in the sweeper mid role Gus played last night. The other big change last night was to open room for Gus it meant Petracca played much more forward. And for the first time maybe all year that worked. Apart from the shoddy set shot goal kicking Tracc competed well, pressured well and hit more targets. If we are to keep Gus on ball then we’re kind of back we were pre 2020 with a full midfield and Petracca not being the gun permanent mid. Gus will still cover the 3rd wing spot and the other mids can play some forward minutes not just Tracc, but we’ll still be given up a fair few centre bounces and on ball minutes. I think Goody sticks with it for another week but I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t. Or if he gave it a week then went back to Harmes at half forward to boost the speed and pressure there and get Tracc more in the guts again.

Marking anything out at Casey today is near on impossible with the breeze. JVR’s clunked plenty of clean marks this year, and his contesting against an experienced afl defender in Cordy last week was good. But for now Brown or even Weid are more likely to halve contests against good afl defenders due to their size and strength. And Melk is in the other key forward role because he has a seasoned afl tank and 200 games of experience. His positioning and ability to find some uncontested disposals is just superior to a young fella. But in both of those important aspects JVR is building. He’s not far away

Are Dunstan, Munro, Baldi and Mitch White effectively Sauntner-ing our young mids? Bedford, Chandler, Laurie even Woewodin are all good enough to get significant midfield minutes. They’d get 25 disposals rather than 15ish. That’s 60% more chances to work on their disposal and decision making. Fair enough to use the big bodies when we’re playing a top side, but against Preston’s collection of Northern footy league level players I don’t think we’re getting the right development here.

There’s a bit of Collingwood 6 footer about that measurement. Most rucks look clearly taller than him. Darcy Cameron listed at 204 and looks more like an inch than a cm taller. Either that or Grundy is appears shorter because he’s usually bear hugging opponents

The issue with Grundy is some of the things he does well that result in big stats aren’t often valuable, especially if he’s off his best. He gets a lot of hit outs but he’s not tall and doesn’t jump, so they’re very predictable and don’t result in quality clearances. He gets a lot of disposals but they are messy contested possessions. Often times he’s just nicking disposals that should be in the hands of someone like Pendlebury or Sidebottom. Apart from the huge difference in salary the Pies prefer Darcy Cameron because he can play forward, he’s a better mark and better tap ruck who keeps it simple in his role.

Late second or 3rd round pick and 500k would be the most I’d go for Grundy. I’d keep my eye on GWS. If Grundy goes there we should really look at Matt Flynn who we bidded on years ago. The right age to really go to the next level as a ruck and he has untapped forward potential

2 howlers in the 3rd quarter but a low disposal total v Port and a fade out on tired legs last week were silly criticisms. His work rate and strength and power at the contest are just immense, and short of completely butchering the ball he won’t be going anywhere.

Backline was so much better balanced with Hunt providing some defensive cover and speed across half back. Gus helped the midfield get more uncontested possessions and cover on the defensive side. But the wet weather made his indiscriminate hacking of the ball forward look good. And Brodie and Mundy had about 3000 disposals each, but didn’t have the space or skills to do much with them. Fritsch was excellent. Weid and Melk not exactly a pack crashing force, but they did enough to panic Pearce, Cox and Young out of intercepts. Apart from that stretch in the 3rd where Mundy put himself in our bomb out spot and the talls couldn’t come across and impact. I still don’t think we go anywhere without an uncontested kicking game to keep teams honest and some miracle recoveries or performances from tall forwards. But when we can win in the air the ground game still has a lot going for it

Brown for Weid unless Jacko is injured? Melksham continues another week in his small tall role. No idea what to do with Harmes and Brayshaw and whether JJ, Rivers or Hunt go out. Wait and see on Hibbo too.

I think they’ll draft or chase a forward and end up with Balta and Gibcus down back long term when the veterans clear out.

The problem with that idea is best 22 AFL rucks and key forwards that fit within our system are incredibly rare. Jacko is one. I’ve said repeatedly that I think McStay would be one. Jack Gunston would be too. Lobb would, but we don’t seem interested. Everyone else after that is a prospect. Meek’s a nice one, but he might not fit with Gawn, similar to big Preussy (if less eccentric). He might be Max’s back up not Max’s partner. Treacy’s a nice depth option. Once Luke announces he wants to go I think Freo will negotiate hard but eventually put something like the Lever or Hogan deal on the table. 2 firsts. Or a good first and a second. We’ll then have to accept it and do the best we can. It might take 12-24 months to actually target and land the Jackson replacement, yet alone the Brown/Macca key forward we need.

1. Darcy loves an injury 2. Darcy is a good set shot and a good clunk marker. I think he’s well ahead of Gawn for forward craft at the same age. Key forwards are getting harder to find. If you can have 2 rucks you don’t need 2 gun key forwards. 3. Jacko is seriously special around the ground. We haven’t seen it all that often because our game plan is stodgy at times but Freo like to open it up and then Luke can run rucks off their feet and open up the corridor as an extra mid. He can do the stuff Blicavs does for Geelong. 4. LJ’s excellent start to his career has hidden his rate of development and potential for growth. There’s a risk he gets a bit Grundy like and stalls or regresses. But look at Tim English, after years of getting man handled the lights have gone on this year and he’s killing them. Age wise, Jacko shouldn’t even have debuted!

That’s fair. But we also know that multiple other teams were interested in him. I’m happy to be proven wrong if he’s signed on at significantly below market rate, but it would be pretty crazy to lock himself in on 6 years at such a low rate that he could’ve taken 3 from someone else. I wish all salaries above the league average were disclosed so we could get a better handle on what teams are doing.

Why is reposting the entire press release proof I'm wrong? Before free agency guys of Brayshaw's standing would do well to get a 3 or 4 year deal. Since free agency that has exploded out to deals of 5-6 years being far more common. None of that has anything to do with Gus' leadership, play style, character or anything else.

He’s consistently got better at VFL level but I don’t see improvement in the things that would make a coach pick him at AFL level. And I don’t understand the move to half back because if it didn’t work immediately he’s unlikely to get picked there because he’s shaky at the contest. We’ve got too many half forwards as is but I’d have tried him there at Casey. He really does make things happen with his burst speed and ability to get to space.

Balta is 22. The tigers aren’t going to trade a 22 year old for picks unless it’s a crazy offer. He’s also not an upgrade on LJ in the forward/ruck role. He’s played a big chunk of the year as a forward and hasn’t kicked multiple goals since round 3. Obviously Jacko’s not lighting it up forward either but he makes far more of an impact in the ruck and has his moments as a tall target. He’s a key defender getting a run as a forward because Grimes, Tarrant, Broad and often Gibcus are down back.

No defensive run and no impact with his disposals. The crows already have 2 low impact rack them up types in Keays and Laird. And they run. They’re playing the kids to get defensive impact (Berry) and other young guys who can provide skills. Given they can’t seem to ‘fix’ Crouch’s game style they’ve pretty much put a line through him. Crouch could only get a 2 year deal in free agency last year. He makes sense for a team like Geelong to replace Selwood and Dangerfield. We don’t need a second Dunstan.

Haven’t said anything negative about another poster til now. Have simply stated my beliefs about a player. Happy to debate people in good faith. There’s plenty of people who agree with me, some are probably afraid to go against the demonland group think and the overly excited fans.

Length of contract has absolutely exploded since free agency. That’s undeniable. Go yell in the mirror

If the contract only got to 2nd round pick, maybe. If the contract triggered an end of first I don’t think we’d have matched that. That’s big money for a player who wants to be elsewhere. Clubs have also got away with short term big money deals to bump compo brackets and restrict the ability to match too. But that’s hypothetical anyway, the informal offers that shape the market for a player don’t require any thing more than a realistic threat of getting them for free. Teams would’ve floated a lot of cash, we can’t match that per year, so we go with extra years. Whether it’s Coniglio, Grundy, Brayshaw, Zach Merrett it’s pretty widely done now. And the tighter the cap the more teams will go for years over cash.

Free agency. The clubs offering deals to Gus don’t have to trade anything for him. They would be getting a top 25 pick for free. So instead of offering a player the 450k for 3-4 years that they’re worth they’ll offer him 600k for 4 or even 5. 150k per year is nothing when they don’t have enough good players to fill the cap anyway. We can’t afford 600 x 5. So to make up the difference we offer 500 x 6. Post tax the extra year of work pretty much pays for itself. There’s actually a fairly limited pool of players who are eligible and can back themselves in with short deals and make it 25/26 whilst having good value. Every player who then gets to free agency (or even pre agency 16 or so months out) then gets a big money deal, whether they’re Clayton Oliver or Adam Tomlinson. It’s either years, dollars or both.

I thought Ben Brown would deliver exactly what he has this year. Cooked knee, battling to play. Credit to Burgo, Ben and the team for getting a very good half a season out of him. Clearly now it’s a gamble that was worth taking. Still not entirely sure why he got 4 years but the draft compensation (swap of Preuss) became far less than initial fears. I thought Tom was battling too many leg injuries and would struggle to recapture form. He doesn’t play through injuries well. They got him going close to his best last year, we’ll see if he’s got more in him. I didn’t think ANB would ever find the level of composure and attack on the ball to be useful under pressure. Great defensively but was a liability the other way until he found belief last year. I loved Spargo in ‘18, he did test the patience in 19-20. I’m sure there’s posts after bad games where I was down on many of our players but I’d say the rest of the premiership 22 I had a good opinion of. The drop back wing role was an effective use of Gus. So has been using him as an intercept defender, particularly when Lever was missing. But the clubs been drafting wingers the last two years, and gun halfbacks need speed and/or skills. I don’t agree with 6 years for a guy who’s plugged gaps but isn’t an ideal fit in any one position.

Probably more like 4 until he gets shipped off to the Tassie team

He’s not in the 20 best back flankers according to the afl player ratings. He can’t kick. He can’t man up. He’s in AA contention via the media, many of whom happen to be close family friends. He looked great against rubbish sides who kicked it to him. Not sure he’s had more than one coaches vote over the last two months.