Adam The God

Thanks for this Wheelo. Just a quick one. The AFL ap had us scoring 4 points from defensive half chains and Geelong scoring 33 points. Is there a discrepancy?

That was a typo. Resilience was the key word.

Most of that top 15 on that list spend time on the wing, so on the outside, and off half back as you say with Hewett, @Engorged Onion. This is three years in a row that we've struggled to score big and move the ball quickly enough during the middle part of the season, and still, people write off our chances at the pointy end and want to drop everyone etc. Selwyn Griffith has made it plainly clear that players lose fitness as the season progresses and need to be topped up by additional kms in the legs and/or increased weights etc during the middle part of the season. Add to this, the additional weather factors of the June period, usually bring wet and ordinary conditions, and then you've got a recipe for increased disposal inefficiency, fumbling and an inability to get overlap and burst from stoppages, half back and any contested situation. Not to say it's impossible, but these factors are all in play and plainly influence results. Not just in our games, but league wide. In Burgess' last year, Griffith was to shadow him and emulate his program the following years. Last year we had too many injuries and we allowed too many players to play through injury (taking from Burgess' philosophy of building resilience to injury). This year we're managing players better. I've seen people suggesting we drop Chandler for a freshen up. Well, that's all well and good, but that's not really modern footy anymore. He won't be sitting around putting the legs up or he'll lose conditioning. He'll still need to do the same kms as if he were playing in the AFL, but it'll occur on the training track instead. So fatigue will be an issue in any games he or anyone else play until tapering occurs. Some Demonlanders and MFC supporters on Facebook etc would like to think footy is as simple as when they played in the 90s or when played/play some ammo footy. Well, it's not, and without factoring in cumulative fatigue to decision making and ability to execute things like goal kicking, and somehow expecting 'leaders' to be better at this, I think is extremely flawed. Look at our goal kicking accuracy between Rounds 1-9. We kicked the following scores: R1 - 17.13 R2 - 13.4 R3 - 21.8 R4 - 19.12 R5 - 11.11 (this is the Essendon game off the back of a 6 break with travel from Perth, back to Melbourne, on to Adelaide) R6 - 15.6 (we had an 8 day break into this, with this being the Richmond game on the 9th night) R7 - 22.7 R8 - 13.12 (in a sluggish affair on the Gold Coast) R9 - 15.13 Incredible accuracy. And then like 2021 and 2022, we started to struggle in game to get overlap, our contest work started to suffer, as did our ball movement and our accuracy started to decline. Obviously, when ball movement starts to struggle, you're likely to get lower percentage options too. So remember how central and quickly we were moving the ball in the earlier rounds, and now how our ball movement has slowed and this has intersected with our poorer accuracy? Since Round 9, we've gone the following: R10 - 11.10 (lost clearances by 10 and were smashed on the outside) R11 - 10.12 (goal kicking cost us, as did ability to execute clean disposals in the forward half and create turnovers in the forward half) R12 - 8.13 R13 - 8.18 R15 - 8.15 Marry all this up with cumulative fatigue, what Griffith said on the podcast and increasing the fitness base from the middle point to the back end of the season, and it's pretty undeniable we're going through the same stretch of heavy training again, which is having a huge impact on performance. And then there's the clear drop offs during Rounds 11-19 in 2022 and Rounds 13-19 in 2021. These training blocks impact on accuracy, ball use and decision-making. That doesn't mean every result is determined by this, but when we do have results like the Geelong game or the Port or Freo games, it's too easy to simply say let's drop a bunch of guys, let's change our system etc. Sure, we have to find the right mix at either end of the ground, and ensure we manage players properly, but we still have time. In the back end of our season, there's less travel, weaker opponents, but there might also be some shock results up to that Round 19 area. But the MFC does not exist in a vacuum. League wide, the standard of games has dropped overtly in the past month, something @binman has repeatedly pointed out. I think top 2 *may* be out of reach now, but we're still very well placed for 3rd, particularly given Brisbane's own flakiness and their draw versus ours.

Yep, I think it's a legitimate concern with the way we've tweaked our game style to chain out of contest. Particularly, during the middle of the year when fatigue has become a factor, we fumble too much. We'd be much better trying to be more inventive in finding ways to gain territory without it slingshotting from simple dump kicks. It's a bit of a wait and see though, because the wet weather should bring our contest and pressure game to the fore, but so far we've looked vulnerable in these conditions. Either we hope for a dry September or we simply execute better in the wet, like Geelong managed last night. Oliver should definitely help in this regard.

We got it deep plenty of times last night. The majority of entries were deep. But yes, we couldn't get it to 1v1s often enough. Geelong played a very high line with no goalkeeper from defensive stoppages, but had extra numbers at the contest to chain out or clear the area.

So we're league leaders for points from defensive half chains, averaging 38.6 points from this source. Tonight, we scored 4 points from these defensive half chains, to Geelong's 5 goals 3. So although our chaining from contest in the middle of the ground worked at times to gain territory, we didn't score enough once the ball was in our forward half. I'm concerned that this tweak of chaining out of contests and the back half is actually something that can break down badly in the wet weather. Geelong were just cleaner when they chained out of contest and our defensive structures completely broke down. I wouldn't want us playing a final in the wet weather. Let me put it that way.

I think the players we have need to execute better. Simple as thst. They're creating enough chances. Just a little thing on Melbourne at Geelong, when May kicks out to the flank, we get to the foot of the contest and Geelong stand 15m from the foot of it. Geelong get it to ground and either smother our guys at the foot or the ball pings out to those 15m put Geelong players. Happened last year and happened a lot tonight. It ends up with an uncontested Geelong player having the ball at 60-55m and having to hit up a simple short chip inside 50. We did adjust to this, but it took us a while and it cost us early.

One thing I will say is that Geelong held on and scragged our players all night and got away with it. Gawn was manhandled in every ruck contest. They get a bloody good go that mob.

There wasn't a decent match up for Tomlinson. Would have been murdered down here. And ironically, after Cameron went down, there wasn't a match up for Petty either.

Nah, we're getting hot chocolates on the way back. We'll be fine. Disappointing result, but for 3 quarters we dominated them. I said to my old man with 2 or 3 mins to go in the third, 'I reckon if we get the next goal and get it out to 7 points, we'll win'. We did and looked good. Bad call, AF. But they were playing for a finals spot after a disappointing campaign as the premier, and the last quarter was a bit of IMV, 'we're home' from our side, and Geelong lifting their intensity through the roof. In the first 5 minutes of the last quarter, we didn't help ourselves as we kept tapping to the back of the centre bounce in the last quarter, which continually heaped pressure on our mids and defence. It encouraged it. Truly bizarre work. The scoreline was incredibly similar to the game down there last year. But this year, we really dominated territory (and the game) for the best part of three quarters and they didn't really look like scoring. Have to think fatigue played a big role in the huge drop off in the last quarter.

I'm hoping this generation of players will provide a few decent father sons in the years to come.

What's your view on the betting odds @binman? Is it quite unusual for the market to flip flop like it has on this game?

Good on you mate. But surely West Coast or Adelaide or Port are more inhospitable and hostile than that mob?

Has Kane said something about this? And would anyone take on Tom given his injury history and age? We'd likely have to pay a portion of his contract at the very least. And why would Port need another tall forward? They have them coming out of their ears. Play him as a defender, you think?

TMac and BB are both contracted for next year, so not really.

The betting market has come in slightly in Geelong's favour if that means much. Geelong $1.96 - Melbourne $1.84 Gamble responsibly. :P

Oh my God. The 'man up!' one I [censored] hate. I've stopped my family saying it (mostly), because I tell them 'we're playing a zone FFS!' I've no problem telling other Melbourne nuffies around me either.

"Bring it to ground!" "Win ground ball!" "Don't give them a +1 there!" "We've got them here. Great transition." 🤣

If Petty comes in for Tomlinson, it'll be because Tomlinson doesn't have a great match up this week IMV. I'd start Tomlinson on Hawkins, but if Hawkins got a hold of him, I've no idea where you'd be able to play Tomlinson. If you take the squad mentality view, maybe next week Petty swings forward and Tomlinson comes back in?

Really? Our accuracy can let us down, but that's forwards and mids. And having a gun key forward is great, but equally makes you more predictable and easier to stop. I'd much prefer a system-based forwardline, with some x factor like Kozzy, Fritta and a resting Trac. It's no wonder opposition fans buy into this idea of our forwardline struggling, when all they've heard from the media is we can't connect.

My family wouldn't say so. 🤣

I'm in A11. Hopefully you can't hear my commentating from A10.

I noted a Channel 7 reporter covering the build up to our game down at Geelong had the surname Massey. Does anyone know if she's any relation? And RIP Bernie.

Without derailing my favourite thread, pretty much all the new Star Wars films (aside from Rise of the Skywalker) are excellent IMO. And completely agree on Andor. It's superb. I'm a bit like @binman in that I'm not as confident this week given where we likely are in our fitness regime, that said in the corresponding game last year, we spanked Brisbane. I'd say it's likely our program is aligned differently this year as we have the three 10 day breaks, which absolutely make sense to go hard during the week on, so I'd expect us to be sluggish. However, Geelong's midfield is not what it was and without Dangerfield, I expect us to win the contest battle. I just hope our goal kicking accuracy doesn't cost us. I think the second half of this season should be fascinating to see what tricks the FD have in terms of set ups and personnel. I think the ball movement will naturally evolve and fix itself, providing we have continuity in our squad/team. I expect that those players who occasionally slow us down on slingshot will become more confident and instinctive in moving the ball on successfully and if we get our fitness regime right, our players will be able to provide more options in these situations. The treating Geelong like an interstate game is great. I find it unusual that we've never tried that as a team before. It seems relatively logical as a way to team bond and ensure ultimate focus on the task at hand. I hope it pays off. This along with training to the GMHBA dimensions is giving us the best chance to succeed and I hope we continue to approach the second half of this season with a mentality of being flexible and inventive.

That's fair.