Adam The God

We clearly sat Toby down and said you'll be playing more. Not to mention he did play last year. He was also an NGA talent for us, so we developed him from a young age. Look at Chandler, he stuck fat and is now getting regular games. We don't know exactly what went on behind closed doors, but I'd be disappointed if I were the club.

The thing is, let's say one area of the ground goes through the roof in the second half of the year, we win the flag, and the players all credit it with that assistant etc etc. You're saying, nup, I have an arbitrary 3-5 year rule that assistants must move on, sorry, I know you helped us win two flags in three years and there was a second place finish in there too, but it's off you pop. You can't be making those sorts of decisions at this stage. Let's give it a month and if nothing has changed, by all means, let's consider these sorts of decisions then.

And it doesn't really need saying, but I will anyway. It's round 11. It's even a bit early for the let's get new assistants around Goodwin, let alone the old dopey one, Goodwin fluked the flag.

At what point is it on the players to get the job done? We've been here before and the answer was always the same. The players need to step up.

2021, we were simply brilliant. You surely can't expect us to replicate that again...? The threepeat Hawks, Richmond with their flags, they were very similar to us in most of their years. They got it done in the second half of the season and in finals.

I'm sure they're saying the same things down at Geelong. Burn the place, wasted the list, Scott fluked the premiership. We were pathetic today, but there isn't a veil of negativity on here. There's mental fragility. Let's burn the place down of we don't make the top 4. A long way to go yet.

No wonder the club was [censored] off Bedford left. He's exactly the sort of guy to bring in now to give Chandler a chop out. I reckon there's a chance both would have been playing in our forward half this year. Food for thought for the recruiting period at the end of 2023.

@titan_uranus was sharing an interesting titbit. Nowhere did he say anything else... At quarter time we should have been up by 4 or 5 goals minimum. We missed easy shots and put two on the full. His point was our inaccuracy (having been so accurate this season), did not help our cause today. We basically [censored] ourselves in the foot for most of the day, all over the ground.

One test failed, three to go. If we can go 2-2 we're still in the hunt for top 2, let alone top 4. We were pathetic today, but our lack of depth in the VFL (TMac, JVR, McVee and Chandler shouldn't have been playing today) doesn't help the situation. We looked so fumbly and I've never seen so many dropped intercept marks. I'd say we dropped between 15-20 marks May, Lever and Gawn should have taken. They take them and the pressure value is released. Instead, they drop them, even when they were the +1 behind the ball, and then the pressure comes at ground level. Even when we managed to cause a turnover, we fumbled and lacked the ability to slingshot. Freo's pressure was excellent and their system (copied from us) behind the ball was very organised. But, our inability to switch, or give to runners was nowhere. We played down the one wing practically all day and never looked to switch. I can only assume this was an instruction based on either fitness or ensuring our numbers could block up any turnover going the other way. It meant that our ball movement reverted to 2022. Predictable, slow and lacking in ideas. If you're going to kick long to a contest, you have to have players at the foot of the ball for spillages. We missed Oliver, but he wasn't the difference. They played without Darcy for over a half of football. I'm gonna say it and people won't like it, but we looked like we'd been flogged on the training track and I wouldn't be surprised if we're in a heavy loading block, building up to the Collingwood match. But we need to get these results going our way, against middling teams like Freo. The waning accuracy, poor decision making, poor disposal and lack of attack are also signs of fatigue just FYI...

We'll probably flick him to the attacking winger position and Harmes and co will take the defensive position. Be interesting to see.

As a coach myself, I've long said that Carlton's coaching of McKay has been unacceptable. They should have said at the start of last year, 'mate, you have to find a drop punt routine, and it might not work for a while, but when it does, you'll be unstoppable'. Instead, they've left him to his own ridiculous kick around the corner technique from all over the joint, and eventually this technique has failed him too, leaving him completely bereft of confidence. This is a completely fixable problem. I'd be getting the psychologist on the case too. I mean they probably are, but from a coaching perspective, they've taken the easy route and it's backfiring badly.

What, so we're contenders if we beat 10th placed Freo? FMD, Picket.

By the same token, nothing matters except finishing in the top 4. And currently, we're in there. Ruckmen are the most overrated players on the ground IMO. The reason Max has been so elite is down to his work around the ground, particularly, his elite marking.

Collingwood: Round 1 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost. Round 2 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. Round 3 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. Round 4 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost. Round 5 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter drawn. Round 6 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost. Round 7 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost. Round 8 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. Round 9 - 4 quarters won. Round 10 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. TOTAL - 26 quarters won, 13 quarters lost, 1 quarter drawn. Melbourne: Round 1 - 4 quarters won. Round 2 - 2 quarters won, 2 quarters lost. Round 3 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. Round 4 - 4 quarters won. Round 5 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost. Round 6 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. Round 7 - 4 quarters won. Round 8 - 2 quarters won, 1 quarter drawn, 1 quarter lost. Round 9 - 3 quarters won, 1 quarter lost. Round 10 - 1 quarter won, 3 quarters lost. TOTAL - 27 quarters won, 12 quarters lost, 1 quarter drawn. So we've had similar draws and won one more quarter, lead them in most statistics, except they've fallen over the line in two games when we failed to against Port.

The first three quarters are irrelevant given we were ahead at three quarter time...

IMV, we're losing more stoppage clearances because we're leaving space open. ie the anti bees to the honey pot. Watch what our wingers do. They stay out, so our half-backs have room to rebound.

Collingwood have had to come back from deficits in pretty much every game. That would suggest, no, they, like everyone else, are struggling to maintain their intensity for 4 quarters....

It's interesting. It did feel like Port's pressure dropped in the third. And here is the point you're making, it's very hard to sustain that sort of pressure for a whole match, let alone a whole season. This is why modern footy is such a game of momentum.

I was using points against, yeah. And fair enough, more complex than that. It was a slightly crude evaluation, but suggests we're doing a lot right defensively. As I just mentioned in the stats thread, we're 4th for ground ball gets and we're 4th for defensive tackles inside 50. I can't seem to find the 'defending inside 50s' stat that you're referring to, but given we're top 4 for ground ball gets and defensive tackles inside 50, I'm not sure how the 'defending inside 50s' stat is calculated. Given our around the ground stoppage work isn't as strong (we're 17th), perhaps this is where/why our 'defending inside 50s' percentage is suffering, but the around the ground stoppage percentage doesn't outline whether we're losing the majority of these clearances, say in the forward half, or the back half. That would be interesting to know. You wouldn't happen to have a break down of which part of the ground stoppage clearances are won and lost would you, @WheeloRatings? But even if we are losing more stoppages in the back half / inside defensive 50, that may be the trade off we make to score more (commit less players to block space, enabling swifter exits when we do win the ball ourselves), or it may simply be a factor of rolling different personnel through the around the ground stoppages. As the season progresses and our elite players spend more time in there, that stat could naturally improve itself. I guess it's a bit of a wait and see, because there are a few variables in those scenarios.

I was just looking through https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html GROUND BALL GETS I'm very surprised to find us 4th for ground ball gets (97.3). That's much better than I gave us credit for. Although our game doesn't flow unless we win ground ball, I didn't realise we'd be well above the AFL average (93.0). This stat will be a really interesting watch over the next 3 matches minus Clarry, as he is our leading GBG player and 3rd in the competition for GBGs. Luckily, Trac is equal 4th and ahead of Cripps and Serong as the only real threats in the next two weeks in this area. Freo are 18th for GBGs and Carlton are 14th. We're 4th for GBGs and Collingwood are 9th. Collingwood however have 5 players in the top 40 GBG players in the league. Most of them are nowhere near the quality of Trac and Clarry in this area, but Clarry's absence in GBGs will definitely be felt against Collingwood. COLLINGWOOD Here are some other interesting stats given everyone seems to think they're the yard stick. * they are 1st for kick in play on percentage - 97.2% * they're 18th for defensive 1v1s (we're 2nd) Otherwise, we're either pretty much even or we lead them in more categories. Essentially, if we come to play against them, our game is in better shape than theirs statistically. Given their draw has included Hawthorn, GWS, Richmond and less travel, they're really not very far ahead of us. They just happen to have won two extra games, having limped over the line twice. At this point, Brisbane looked a completely different side when they play in Brisbane vs away. And Port similar. You could argue similar for us, except the GF is played on our home ground...

Unless Woey is sub. Calm down, AF. Be patient.

Well, I look like a bit of a goose. What happened @Dannyz? 😭

I agree with this wholeheartedly. There seems a disconnect with our rucks (particularly Max) and our stoppage set up at times in D50. Perhaps, this is partly personnel, partly because we're trying to be super aggressive off half back, so we deliberately open up space in D50, rather than do what many teams do and clog it up?

And old mate @Dannyz has spoken, so Taj will debut this week. Never gets them wrong.

Did David King compare Melbourne to last year's premiership Geelong at the same stage? Or did he just go with the easy dopey analysis?