CHF

Forward setup looks better. I wonder if we will be smart or skillful enough to use it properly?

I am very pleased to be 12-3 on the ladder and lying second. A position I acknowledge in the very first lines of my preview. In previewing this round I have to look at our recent performances and, I my view, they have been less than acceptable performances from both the players and the coaching staff. So, from my point of view, not so very strange.

12-3 15 rounds played…..12 wins….. 48 points in the premiership bank and dropped to second on the ladder after a not-so-forgettable loss to the Great Waste of space. Defence under pressure…. Midfield looking flat and devoid of ideas and imagination …… forward structure non-existent….. or at least still dysfunctional after 15 games this season. Goody thinks that is a good thing. It is not as if we were playing world beaters in GWS. They are a good competent side that has a number of quality players but it is not a team that we should have lost too. Rubbish first half and a better second half with no one able to take the chances on offer. Midfield could not deliver with confidence to a forward structure that would not allow them to identify proper targets. Very disappointing and worrying performance. And so, to Round 17 and we play the Port Power this Thursday night at Adelaide Oval. 2nd vs 3rd and there is every chance that if we lose this one, we could find ourselves in 5th place come Monday morning…… And who would be surprised when the much lauded coaching panel still have no idea of the best forward setup? So much for adding Yze and Choco. They looked good when we were winning but are scratching their heads at the moment. The facts: We are coming off a grinding loss – Advantage them The game is at Adelaide Oval – Advantage them We have been rubbish the last few weeks – Advantage them They are coming off a win last week against the Hawks – Advantage them Not looking good, is it? Problem areas of the game for us. Still the bloody forwards…. And now you can add the midfield that looks flat and disinterested. Defenders did their job with very little support from other sectors of the ground. Goodwin swung Hunt forward in the last to remind us why he was moved back. Running out of defence the way he does is good when there are players forward of him, so he does not have to make too many decisions. Stick him in the front half and he runs out of players to pass forward to and he has forgotten that there are four sticks at the end of the ground you can have a ping at. Go back to the structure that works for the defenders and sort out the rest of the players. A bit of midfield pressure goes a long way toward winning a game of footy as can be seen by the difference between our play in the first half as opposed to the second where we remembered to apply pressure. Made a world of difference. We are rubbish at sorting out onfield problems during the game. Our clearances in the first half were less than acceptable and yet I did not see anyone changing things onfield to sort it out. If something is not working…. Fix it then and there. Try something different. Jackson to ruck with Max roving at the center bounce as a mid…Anything….. Anything at all. It has to be better than doing SFA. Max and Luke will win the taps at the ruck contest but so what? Oh dear……. Now for the forwards……. I hate to keep picking on them every week but a score of 7-13 from 56 inside 50s with 10 marks in the 50 arc leave them open, once again, to bear the brunt of criticism. The good; Fritsch kicked a few and Tmac is in good form but not getting the ball near to goal The bad; Wow. Where to start? No forward targets…. (left over from last week) The ugly; Selection stubbornness in not giving BBB a run. Another week, another win without a recognisable structure to the forward line. We took 10marks inside our forward 50…. 10. We scored 7 goals 13. Please, please….fix this…. Brown to come in? if so, will that make it any better? Could not be any worse. (Paraphrased last week) Shaking my head here…. No idea what could fix it but then again, I am not paid the big bucks by the MFC to come up with answers to problems, and the people that are, are not providing answers. Any thoughts on the subject Yze? Choco? Goody???? You guys have been around a lot ya gotta have some idea….. (repeat from last week) Selection….. make some changes don’t just nibble the chesses and have a friendly chat about the weather and leave the team to wallow without a forward structure that they can play too. I heard a few loud clunks last week and The Bathwater Express ground to a halt as the wheels had fallen off. To be honest they did not so much ‘fall off’ more like that jumped off and ran away into the bush as they did not want to be associated with TBE. Understandable. It will take a lot to get them back on the hubs. Last week I predicted a 6 goal win….. got it wrong…. Very wrong….. I would Love to predict a win here but, after a long bull run, the bears are in ascendancy and I have to predict a loss….. not even an honourable one…. 30pts and 5th after the round. Go Dees!!! ( I still love the team but they make it so damn hard)

Is me panicking over something I have no say in going to make a difference to any of the outcomes? nah. I think I will let the people and players that are paid the big bucks decide if it is time to panic. l’m looking at you Goodwin. 15 games into the season and you still have no idea on how to structure the forwards.

Yeah DeeS. I can see that argument but the forward structure was so non-existent last week I think wwe need to make some change to see if we can get at least a couple more goals out of that area.

Proper questions those...... now if only MFC had the coaches that could answer them confidently....

That is why I said 'unlucky'. I like the way the kid plays and is developing.

Defenders- no change. Midfield - No change to the core players from last week. Oliver, Pteracca, Viney, Langdon, Brayshaw, Harmes and Jordon. Sparrow might be unlucky. Main discussion will concern the forwards. Ben Brown will come in. He must. we just need a second tall down there as a target and to ensure a bit more freedom for Fristch. So Tmac, Brown and Fristch are there [censored] far as I am concerned. Spargo a must as he exerts good pressure, tackles well and delivers the ball well. ANB applies a lot of pressure and provokes trurnovers in the opposition. Not going to be popular for this but I would seriously look at Kossie have a run with Casey next week. So... in Brown, out Kossie or Sparrow

12-2 14 rounds and a bye weekend played…..12 wins….. 48 points in the premiership bank and a game clear of the Bulldogs. Always good to beat the Drug Cheats and always good to know they are moaning and making excuses… we coulda…. shoulda... woulda...... Biased Umps……. yeah, yeah, yeah……. Every one is against you. Suck it up. We have the bye behind us and the way the game panned out was very much like the games before the bye. We wandered through the game with the coaches making adjustments where required and the players do what needed to be done without any player other than May looking as if they were out of first gear. I found it frustrating but was happy to get the 4 points. Any game is a good game if you walk away a winner. I think we were surprised by the Bomber’s pressure in the first quarter and a lot of players were caught with the ball. It was not until the second quarter that the adjustment was made. And so, to Round 16 and we play the Great Waste of Space in the early game at the ‘G’ on Saturday. They have a stronger team (on paper) than last time we met, but that counts for little if they don’t turn up. I expect a reaction from them after dropping their last game to the Hawks. I also get the impression that there is no love lost between them and us. They will be on their toes in the first quarter at least. The facts: We are coming off a grinding win – Advantage us The game is at the ‘G – Advantage us We have an extra day rest – Advantage us They are coming off a loss last week against the Hawks – Advantage us No excuses! (honestly, I did look for something for them to hang their hat on and could not find anything…..) Problem areas of the game for us. Wash, rinse, repeat……Still the bloody forwards…. What can I say about our defence that I have not already said? They are solid as a rock at the back. Settled, well drilled and working together as a team very well. May and Lever giving invaluable guidance to Petty with Salem, Hunt, Rivers and Hibberd all connecting well. If this structure stay fit and in form we can beat any team, anywhere. Besides the Toby Jug kicking a couple last week, most of the rest of their goals came from their midfield players. Briggs named as a HF looks to have done some forward rucking and kicked one. We can defend GWS well. Our midfield need to work harder and in a more straight forward way. Cut out trying to carry the ball through danger and get the ball forward. First option. GWS have some talent in the middle that we will have to play a bit of respect too. Hooper is their main avenue to clearances. He had 10 last week. Next best for them was 4. Oliver wins clearances (7 last week) but needs to put them to more harmful effect. I think Petracca will have a big one this week. Viney will be better for the run and it is good to see him smiling after the game. Looked to enjoy it. Max and Luke will dominate the ruck contests against whoever they put in there. Flynn and Briggs look to have shared the rucking and not to great effect. Taps to advantage are all well and good but it is the ones that are not to our advantage that we are not getting our hands to. Oh dear……. Now for the forwards……. The good; Not a lot to report here… we did kick a winning score… a low winning score… a winning score with a lot of behinds The bad; Wow. Where to start? No forward targets…. The ugly; Maybe this week it could be BBB’s hair. Another week, another win without a recognisable structure to the forward line. We took 14 marks inside our forward 50…. Really that is what the stats say….. 14. We scored 9 goals 14. Please, please….fix this…. Brown to come in? if so, will that make it any better? Shaking my head here…. No idea what could fix it but then again, I am not paid the big bucks by the MFC to come up with answers to problems, and the people that are, are not providing answers. Selection….. Back 7 select themselves as do the core of the midfield. Forwards will be much THE discussion. Without a second tall last week Tmac tried to be all over the place and many times it seemed we were without a target because he was up field looking to link into the forwards. Ben Brown to come in and someone to go out….. Not many will agree but I would drop Kossie for a game or two. He did not give us much last week and I think he could do with a run at Casey and some close coaching. I have a new wing courtesy of the Drug Cheats on the Bathwater Express. A bit of a mis-fire last week but a bit of adjustment and we will have it running smoothly once again. Plenty of spare seats available. Last week I predicted a 6 goal win….. got it wrong…. Got the win but not the margin….. Ok 6 goals better than GWS this week. I am sure there is a 6 goal win there somewhere. Go Dees!!!

So, I am awake, up and about, showered and in the kitchen cooking pancakes for breakfast. What have I missed so far?

Well I’m off to bed. Game starts at 11.25 my time. So a watch of the game, a glass or two of wine and then a late lunch to celebrate.

Fitness?

I would go further to say that that VFL team would be better than a majority of the AFL teams we have sent out over the period between 2005 to 2015.

Ben had an interrupted pre-season and it may have been that after 3 games of 'kicking the tyres' the powers that be decided that he was not fit enough and needed a good block of training to bring him up to speed.

With regard to B. Brown, how long is it since he has had a game? I did read somewhere that he was having a mini 6 week pre-season as far as fitness goes. In My opinion, this is a good thing. Give him a run or two at Casey and we have a chance to look at his form. Would love to see a fit in form BBB in our forward 50.

I like this change and I like the forward structure that is named. Viney in is a big plus in my opinion a is the retention of Sparrow. Gawn and Jackson to spend time in the forward 50 as will Petracca.

Favorite win: Has to be the win against the bulldogs for me. With that win I started to have confidence in the team and the players. There were (and still are) a lot of questions being asked of us and with each winning game we answer more of the questions. Game Highlight; TMac's goal against Brisbane after the best in close buildup work I have seen from the Demons. Love the movement and handballs that worked to get the ball free and moving forward from the wing. The goal was icing on the cake. Other random highlight: the quality and consistence of Salem's games. He has always had the talent and ability but this season he has really put it all together. Top 5 in the Bluey: Petracca, Oliver, Gawn have to be in that group but after that there are more than a few that could fill the last two spots. Lever, May and Salem in defence. Langdon from the wing has to be in the discussion. In the forward 50 you might get TMac or Fristch sneaking in. Most improved: again, a few that could be in the discussion. Rivers is on a steep improvement arc for me as is Spargo. Charlie does not get a lot of the ball at the moment but puts in a lot of work putting pressure on the opposition defenders. When he does have the ball in hand he uses it very, very well. His game compliments Pickett's nicely.

A lot of the time this season I have looked to our defence to be the bedrock on which we build a win. While I still understand the importance of the defensive structure we have in place and the success of it, in this game winning the midfield is of primary importance. They are very good at finishing inside their forward 50 so we need to disrupt their supply of quality ball into that zone. We have the talent and the systems in the middle to contain their key play makers in Parish and Merrett. I would be asking Harmes to close down Parish with a hard tag the way he did with Libba in the Bulldogs game. He does that and it takes away a lot of the ball and drive they get from stoppages.

11-2 13 Rounds played…..11 wins….. still only 44 points in the premiership bank and nothing has changed from last week. We still sit on top of the ladder thanks to a Cats win against the Bulldogs Bit different this last weekend not having any football from the Demons. Still I am sure they have enjoyed a weekend off. And so, to Round 15 and we play the Bombers, the team that suffered a number of player suspensions due to systemic drug cheating. We play them on Saturday night on the G….. maybe. I am not sure what to make of this iteration of the Bombers. I find their list a strange mix of bits and pieces. Some good young talent and some older more experienced guys that tend to run hot and cold. Biggest interest for me is to see what sort of shape we turn up in after the break. Will we be switched on or flat? We seem to be making all the right noises but the time over the white line will tell us what the players understand and believe. The facts: We have the week off – Advantage us Their home match – Advantage them We play at the G – Advantage us They are coming off a win last week against the Hawks – Advantage them (maybe) Problem areas of the game for us. Still the bloody forwards…. Our defenders are well settled and have the first half of the season in form. They did not look shiny and bright in the outing against the Pies but I am looking forward to seeing them re-set and work back into form. Stringer and Jones look to be their main avenues to goal and I see that they have their own version of our Wied in Wright. He is not in good form up forward and would not be surprised to see him ‘rested’. Our defenders will need to be sharp as a number of their forwards apply good pressure and tackles. As long as we stick to our structure and trust in each other we will get on top in this area of the ground. We have the talent in our midfield… I am sure that is not news to anyone. This week I think we will add Viney to the mix and it will all be for the better. Not just a break to freshen up but the return of a fired up Viney to spark the others. Parish is the one we need to shut down he is the one that drives a lot of their scoring ….. Harmes anyone? Merrett and McGrath are his main partners in crime but if we contain Parish we will go a long way to winning this. Max and Luke will dominate the ruck contests, but we need the players at their feet to work off them properly. Essendon will have done a lot of work on our ruck’s tap work. It may be that Max spends a lot of his time either back or forward depending on the state of the game and Luke taking the rucks. Now for the forwards……. The good; Well in the bigger picture we are 11-2 without a performing forward structure. And while we have the least points scored against us so far this season, we are only have the 5th highest points for. The bad; Weid’s form but that may not matter this week The ugly; It could be BBB’s hair this weekend. I really hope that there has been some in depth thought and coaching that has gone into our forward 50 structure. While our delivery into the forwards has improved, I am not sure that the delivers have confidence in where the forwards are going to be. We do not seem to be able to consistently find space on the lead and in static marking contests we lack some weight and strength. Selection will make for some interesting reading this week. I expect Weid to be dropped and for B. Brown to come in. Viney in for Sparrow? Most likely. The Bathwater Express is all polished up and ready for the sprint home. I have not started it up since it has just been serviced so I am not sure how it runs at the moment. Expect it to rumble into life with a power surge come Saturday night. Tough to predict this week. I want to see us turn up to this game a we turned up in Round 1….. Fresh, tough and well disciplined…. If we do that, I believe we will run out winners by 6 goals. Go Dees!!!

Nah Jack. All just a matter of opinion and probability.

We sit at 11-2 with the bye weekend coming up and I had a look at the second half of the season with a clear eye on how we have gone so far this season. Of course, with Covid there may well be some changes to the fixtures. Round 15 Essendon at the MCG. Away game for us. We have a weekend off and they play this weekend against the Hawks in Tassie. A 85% probability of a win in my opinion. Round 16 Giants at the MCG. Home game for us. The week before they play the Hawks at home. A 75% probability of a win in my opinion. Round 17 Port at the Adelaide Oval. Away game for us. The week before they play the Hawks in Melbourne. A 50% probability of a win in my opinion. Round 18 Hawthorn at the MCG (finally a team that do not play Hawks just before us). Home game for us. The week before they play Freo in Tassie. A 90% probability of a win in my opinion. Round 19 Suns at Metricon. Away game for us. The week before they play the Bulldogs at Metricon. A 80% probability of a win in my opinion. Round 20 Bulldogs at the MCG. Home game for us. The week before they play the Crows at Mars Stadium. A 70% probability of a win in my opinion. Round 21 West Coast at Optus in Perth. Away game for us. The week before they play the Pies at the MCG. A 50% probability of a win in my opinion. Round 22 Crows at the MCG. Home game for us. The week before they play Port in Adelaide. A 75% probability of a win in my opinion. Round 23 Cats in Geelong. Away game for us. the week before they play the Saints at home in Geelong An easy couple of weeks for them at home. A 50% probability of a win in my opinion. So, in the last 9 rounds of the season I give us a better than even chance of winning 6 of the games and a 50/50 chance in the other 3. Factoring in a disappointing loss against a team we should have beaten and one win from the other 3 that gives us 17 wins for the season and that should be enough to get us into the top 2.

11-2 13 Rounds played…..11 wins….. still only 44 points in the premiership bank after a loss to The Pies. A game clear at the top of the ladder that may or may not survive the next weekend. I hope the Cats can do the dirty on the Bulldogs. Well, I had a stress-free weekend in the delusional belief that we would perform well on Monday. That game has meant that I have been in an ordinary mood since the first bounce. It is all a matter of perspective, so my therapist is fond of saying. It is not the end of the world to have lost last weekend, it just felt like it. Losing to that mob while top of the ladder and 15 places above them. We are at the bye and have lost just 2 matches. Lets be honest, all of us would have taken that at the beginning of the season. But still…… bloody Pies, of all the ratbag teams to loose to this season! And so, to the Bye. Really, this time it is the bye round for us. No footy next weekend for us. A bit of R&R for the players and coaches. A bit of time to reflect on what has happened and to look into the future….. Yeah, yeah…. One game at a time and all that but I am sure that MFC will look at what they want to do in September. Only natural. For me, I am very happy with the first half of the season (thanks to my therapist), there have been a number of players that have developed well this season. The experienced players in Oliver, Petracca and Salem have all advanced their skills and in-game performance. Players like Spargo and ANB have stepped up and look to have a bit more in them and the young/inexperienced players Jackson, Pickett, Rivers, Jordon and Sparrow have developed nicely and look to be long term first 22 in the future. The defenders as a team within a team are very, very good. All good from my point of view. For the second half of the season, I want to see a re-set for the team and I want to see the players build on what they have done so far this season. I want to see real belief from the players. I think that they do have the confidence in their abilities, but I just want to see them carry that through the last 10 weeks of the season to ensure that we are in the best position come September. I would not mind seeing them hand out a couple of beltings to a couple of teams…… I am looking at the Bombers. The facts: We have the weekend off – lovely, no loss this week. Stress free Problem areas of the game for us. Looks like it is playing rubbish teams…. Our defence looked ordinary. Half a pace behind the pies forwards and not very well organised. Calm heads required and some thoughtful work to go into what is required in the future games. That is as bad as I have seen our midfield play so far this year. Lack of pressure bad, reactionary disposals. Now for the forwards……. The good; There was no ‘good’ …… there were no forwards The bad; all of it The ugly; my language watching that rubbish This break should give the coaches a chance to re-work the forward structure to make sure we have some firepower in the forward 50. It is an easy way out to blame the delivery but that is to cover the cracks and ignore the structural deficiencies. Sort it out! The Bathwater Express is in for servicing and to have the wheels put back on. It seems a if we can remove a few of the seats as it looks like a few are ready to jump off. Never mind, TBE will be back better than every come the Bombers. My prediction last week was nowhere near the mark….. this week I predict we will see nothing.

This is about as good a position as we could be in halfway through the season. After the bye we will have virtually a full list to select from, top of the ladder a game clear and full of confidence.

"Video of the Weak"?

I just love the ongoing sense of crisis at the pies and do not think they have the experience or fitness to win on Monday no matter the circumstances. I do think that this unfolding in the week before the QB game will really focus our minds on the job at hand. We will expect them to be 'up' for the game as a send off to Buckley and will prepare for it. We also have the added incentive of this being a game in support of Neale. I just hope they go for the unemployed twin a coach.