William

On membership: I have been a long-time member and pay for the Trident’s category - so not cheap. I have been to all the games in Melbourne for years and many games in other states. I would also think that I would be one of the most travelled supporters who has laid out more than most in terms time and money to attend games given I live in NSW and fly to the games in Melbourne each week. So I don’t expect anyone would be able to doubt my commitment to the club. However, I decided today that I can’t be bothered going next Sunday to Marvel (a ground that I dislike and where my reserved seat lapses under my home and away membership). I kept going through the decades of bad years - faithfully. Someone once asked me why I kept turning up when the team loses so by so much so often. I replied: “There is an aesthetic in the struggle” - and that was my approach. I would, of course, regularly interrogate myself to wonder why supporting a team is so irrational (especially in the context of the MFC). My father supported MFC so I did - a child’s commitment. What is the adult logic in that? I have never successfully answered that question to my own liking. It is what it is, as they say. At any rate, I am done for the time being. I am sick of the nonsense that the coach pumps out in his weekly media appearances. It is frankly insulting. It is not about getting ‘value for money’. It is about not being part of a scam and the way the coach smoothly shifts between ‘learnings’, ‘it is not about winning’, ‘we are building something’, ‘the game plan is about to be understood’ and all the rest of the corporatised nonsense he gets from some management training seminars or wherever just insults the intellect of the membership. The lack of response from the senior management who seem to cosy up and enjoy the wine and food on game days but refuse to publicly take responsibility. It is ludicrous that we have an interim leadership who cannot do anything because we are waiting for the real leadership to arrive - when we are in the throes of a football season where key decisions are required and we are performing so intolerably. So I have decided to not go this weekend and save the travel time and dollars and my happiness. There is no aesthetic in being scammed by the club any longer. When October comes up, I will review my long-term membership status - currently I am doubtful I will continue if the senior coach is still there at the head of the scam.

The question for me is: are we on an improving trajectory or not? All the talk of the lag before the so-called ‘new game plan’ starts working etc can only go so far. Eventually, the team has to be evaluated for trajectory. The answer is clear: our trajectory is downwards and has been for some years. Whatever the reason, in any institution or organisation the top leadership has to take responsibility - that is why they are paid so much over the odds. There are lots of overpaid senior players as well who appear to be on a downward trajectory and others like JVR who are simply not up to the task. I saw an article this week that analysed the shift away from contested strategies at the centre to a new ‘outside’ dynamic. MFC is still trying to reinvent itself with the former and the players who excelled in the past with that strategy are not suited to the new way. I would terminate the senior coach (nicely) this morning.

Yes, the senior coach must miss seeing JVR wandering around aimless, out of position and when he accidentally gets near the ball he drops the mark. Good selection I reckon. As bad as bringing Lever in and persisting with Viney. If only Spargo came in too - then it would be near perfection (-:

I wonder what the proportions are on Demonland for Goodwin to go or stay. There is also a lot of posts about the membership falling away again, which appears to have an empirical basis. Certainly home game attendances this year so far are down from 2023 (average 40,335 compared to 48,974) or around 17.6 per cent, although, interestingly, if you had have asked me for a rough off-the-top of the head estimate based on sitting each game in the Olympic stand this year I would have predicted the fall off was greater. Demonland is a sort of echo chamber though and the threats to abandon memberships etc are hollow unless the Administration and the Board, who make the decisions actually fear there is a trend that has to be dealt with. Perhaps those who have had enough and actually want to see the coach gone and a major shakeup should ensure that message is transmitted to the decision-makers. Petition via Change.org or something like that would be the way, which would also get press coverage - in other words a grass roots uprising. But, of course, like all activist campaigns, one has to be sure before one starts that the numbers are there. Otherwise, the end result tends to be the opposite of what was intended. It goes back to proportions and what people are willing to do to exercise change. I have been reading a lot about the nouveau group in Japan in the 1960s (as an academic exercise) who wanted to overthrow the establishment and fracture the US domination of the constitutional machinery after the War. They splintered badly because despite opposing the establishment they adopted the habits of the same in their personal lives and propensities.

Well one good thing today is that the sun has come out shining in Victoria and we didn’t have to waste time going to and from the game. I predicted we would be a bottom 4 team this year and that is proving to be accurate. So the level of disappointment is not as much as it might be. Coach should resign. Planning to move various players on in one way or another should be articulated.

Sure, did you see JVR this morning? Barely up to VFL (reserves) standard much less AFL seniors. The only thing I would say is that he wouldn’t be offering his usual liability if he was playing in the seniors today because the ball has barely gone into our forward 50.

Sorry, Carlton are better, which tells us all.

Except the Port player is mobile, knows where to be to get the ball, and can take a mark or two.

I am not a big fan of H. Petty but the decision to drop JVR is way too late. He has become a liability and shows no forward skill at all. Hopefully he will not be recalled. I would also have dropped Viney - he is out of his depth now and has become a liability. Lever is overrated these days and it is good to see him out. We will now get to see what MJ can do and it is not before time.

The senior coach ultimately has to take responsibility for sustained poor performance. Yes, the coach doesn’t manipulate the ball on the field but that person designs the strategy, oversees the coaching of that strategy, and picks the team that is intended to implement the strategy. Hats off to our coach for identifying major problems like forward connection etc. But then it was not as if these were not visible to all, accredited senior coaches and the rest of us. The problem though has been repetitive. Remember Einstein’s Parable of Quantum Insanity (Google if you cannot remember it). So the repetition then marks him badly. Either: The strategy is flawed - possibly. The coaching of the strategy is flawed - possibly. The players selected to implement the strategy are flawed - definitely. All of which come back to the senior coach and some of it (point 3) comes back to a shared responsibility between coach and recruiters. Either way, the senior coach is responsible. He keep persisting with players that do the same things. Viney has consumed his own kool aid - thinking he is a brute force tank and does silly things repetitively. Why is he selected every week when he keeps kicking to the opposition? Spargo is slow and cannot kick it far enough. He does tackle but that isn’t enough. Petty is not a forward and should be in defence although his speed is a concern. JVR is neither a forward or a ruck - he is a major liability in the forward line. I know all the arguments - youth, confidence, etc - but they do not explain his running patterns each week and his failure to mark. Look at Sam Darcy - similar age, games etc - he is a forward. Some say don’t play him in the ruck so he can concentrate on being a forward. For most of the last 20 or 25 games that has been the case and his performance has been dismal. Why keep selecting him? Windsor - being wrecked by pushing him out of position. I could go on. We really haven’t been in contention since 2023 and even then. So why has the senior coach insisted on trying some of the contenders that we have acquired from the draft? For all those reasons, and some more, 9 years is enough and a dignified exit should be encouraged by the MFC management. The costs of inaction will be continued mediocrity, lost memberships, lost sponsors, and a dismal period for those who stay loyal to the red and blue.

Sure. Two dropped marks as a KPF cost us goals in the second quarter. Normal service resumed.

We 'persevered' with him for 5 rounds at the start of the season and his performance was, frankly, embarrassing. It matched some of the poor showings last year. His game last Monday was similarly poor - looking lost, never being where the ball was to have an impact on the scoreboard as a forward, and unable to cause any turmoil in the packs (much less take a contested mark). So what do you expect to happen in the next 3-4 weeks? I predict just more folly and the liability will continue.

What an extended run around the places on the ground where he has no impact, no scoring chance and just looks lost all the time? That is a strange concept of ‘worth’. At some point, MFC supporters will concur that JVR is not a viable AFL prospect in his present incarnation as a forward. Perhaps he could make it as a defender but I doubt it given his immobility and his lack of marking ability. As a forward though he doesn’t contribute and we have had plenty of sample observations over the last 18 months of that fact. Give some of the other prospects a chance to show what they have to offer is a more ‘worthwhile’ strategy IMHO at this stage of the ‘lost’ season and add JVR to the trade list.

I am good friends with an ex StKilda player and we usually see each other early Monday mornings in the Virgin lounge as we catch the early flights to our different work destinations for the week. We obviously talk football a bit. The topic of MFC's terrible kicking came up and his conjecture is that all the players are in states of exhaustion at the time of kicking for goal because the game has sped up so much to when he played. Then why is MFC worse and he thought that other sides were just fitter. Several testable hypotheses immediately emerge and being that way inclined I sought out some data. Here is a graph that is quite interesting because it puts to bed several possible hypotheses. It is the Goal/Behind Ratio from 1980 to the start of this week's round. It is calculated by dividing the total goals of sides each season by the total number of points. The Total net of MFC, just takes Melbourne's goals and behinds out of the overall aggregate. The MFC ratio is that pertaining only to Melbourne since 1980. The use of a ratio means that the length of the season, number of teams and other variations (like Covid-19) don't really influence the trend. So: 1. Goal kicking accuracy overall improved then flatten out and since 2018 has been slightly improving - which negates on face value my friend's tiredness conjecture. The game has become faster over the course of this time series. 2. The variability of MFC's ratio would be replicated if I did the same analysis for other teams individually. The smoothness of the aggregate is just because some teams are better than others. 3. Since 2018 and up until this year, MFC was broadly tracking the aggregate, which puts to paid the idea that we have become worse over this period. It doesn't however negate the conjecture that for key games poor kicking has cost us winning - like some of the finals in 2022 and 2023. But over the season, our kicking accuracy has been broadly in line with the rest of the competition and improving. 4. This season something dramatic has happened at MFC that is not being replicated in the overall competition. MFC has dropped to its lowest ratio for this 45-year time span - down to 1.02, which means we are kicking as many points as goals. The ratio in 2025 to date for the rest is 1.42. MFCs average between 1980 and 2025 (to date) has been 1.36. So while I don't think the explanation provided by my friend is satisfactory, something is amiss with MFC.

He has been abysmal all season and should not be played again. He is not the answer long-term and we might be able to get something from trading. Tom McDonald should be playing and now the season is done we should see whether M. Jefferson can do the trick. I stood next to him today in the Betty Cuthbert room and he is one tall fellow which doesn’t mean he will work but he has the height. I especially like D. Turner today who can take some great marks. But they should leave him in defence. Petty is also not the answer down forward - he is quite languid and doesn’t seem to be able to hold his marks.

Agree. It was a poor decision picking him. He is often in no-space nowhere near where the ball is going and today that was so obvious he didn't even crash too many packs - one I counted. His 3 marks were uncontested. No score. No impact. Shouldn't be in the side. Kozzie needs to be more disciplined - that 50 and Fritsch's brain fade largely cost us the game at the end. Not to mention the poor kicking. The umpiring was inconsistent but that is not why we lost.

Our forward line with go back to Rounds 1 to 5 if JVR is selected. His so-called ‘good form’ in the seconds has been against the weakest sides. I saw nothing of those performances that would tell me he can cope with the Collingwood backline. So it will be another fail - wandering around lost, dropping marks or, rather, not even getting near the position required to drop them. Jefferson has been superior at Casey in recent weeks and deserves another go. He couldn’t be worse than JVR would be. So all upside in giving him a chance.

We will be disadvantaging ourselves if we pick JVR. The forward line is functioning much better since he has been absent. I counted five direct score involvements from AJ on Sunday - clever taps to advantage. He is also more mobile than JVR. JVR should be required to string several games together at high level for Casey before any suggestion of coming back into the senior side. That might take us into the trade period (hopefully).

Ridiculous to drop McDonald and keep Spargo. The former is faster over ground than the latter (goes well in the early season time trials), can take a strong mark (whereas the latter doesn’t), tackles at least as well, and can kick it straight and longer than 30 metres. He could play in the forward line and be more effective than Spargo. I also don’t rate Lever anymore anyway. So there is that.

I am in the ‘maybe he wasn’t that good all along’ camp. Sam Weideman showed glimpses too on the odd occasion. JVR has not been able to hold a mark since 2023. I didn’t play football at any significant level but like riding a bicycle, does a good player actually ‘forget’ how to mark the ball? It is clear his positioning is all wrong and the defenders know how to work him under the ball in pack situations. But JVR even drops chest marks when he is not under pressure. He is also slow and cannot change directions fast enough to impact when the ball hits the ground. Often he is lost in no-person’s-land. And from today’s VFL performance, not a lot changed. He often looked ‘lost’. So the question is whether a lack of confidence leads to a total abandonment of key forward skills? I doubt it given this pattern has been around for all this season and most of last. I just don’t think he is the solution.

Can the current team and coaching strategy prepare us for another premiership? Answer: No chance. Whether the senior coach was instrumental in the final success of 2021 is moot. A plausible narrative is that he inherited a legacy from Paul Roos and a lot of maturing first-round picks and we won that flag despite the coach. But the reality is whatever the causality was then, the trajectory has been downhill since notwithstanding the two residual final appearances that followed. Last year we finished 5th last, less wins than losses and a percentage below 100. This year we have deteriorated further and are a long way from the performance I see in the top teams at present. I hear that it ‘takes time for the new plan to bed in’ story line. How long? They have had months to ‘bed it in’. Are the players that unskilled and lacking in nous that they cannot change their playing strategy after months? What I see each week from the stands is a team that lacks essential skills - kicking is often poor, marking terrible in some key situations (like JVR - our alleged key forward), missed tackles, lacking pace, etc. I see habitual mistakes in selection - last week was classic - the forward line was an embarrassment. Why did they think selecting JVR and MJ and BF and CS would kick a winning score is beyond me. None of those players are, in my view, currently up to AFL standard, yet the senior coach keeps giving them opportunities. I am also worried that the new younger players that definitely have talent will be undermined by the coaching staff in the same way that those who have gone before them have - for example, some here think that JVR is a star with massive potential. I don’t. But whatever is the fact, he is unselectable now and cannot exhibit basic skills required to play the game (like holding a mark once in a while). So even if the conjecture that is did have massive potential is valid, he is now a total liability and that must be down to the way he has been coached either in technical and/or psychological terms. So all that says to me, that it is time to rethink the football strategy - clear out the coaching ranks, delist some of the players that will not be part of the next premiership and be patient while the newcomers mature and take us up the ladder.

JVR should never be selected again and delisted/traded although I doubt we would get much from the trade. Some have said that he should be tried as a defender. The problem is that he is too lumbering and cannot change direction at the pace required. And as I have indicated before, the narrative that he is just 'out of form' or 'lacking confidence' is avoiding the issue. His running patterns are terrible, he cannot take marks and often is jogging on his own with back to play and trying to work out what is what. That is more than 'out of form'. Fritsch was again lazy and when he did actually have a chance did nothing constructive. Langford was exceptional.

Apropos of this comment, which I agree with, I noted @binman disputed my assessment in the preview for last week's game that JVR was a liability based on the official data. I haven't had much time but I quickly compiled a comparison between 3 key forwards at about the same stage in their career. Here are some relevant aggregates. They are averages after 46 games for Player A, 44 for Player B (a few years ago), and 30 games for Player C (contemporary of Player A). They are all of the same age (when the averages were calculated) and all were recruited low in the draft as key position forwards. Two of the three play(ed) for MFC. They tell the story I think. Only one with be a superstar of the game. I am sure you will be able to put names to the three players.

In his first year at Casey, JVR was considered the next big thing for MFC. Like many players who do well at that level, he has failed in the next two seasons (and 45 senior games) to replicate that reserves form. So it is no surprise that he kicked a few last week - Richmond's reserves defense are so far below AFL standard that one should not extrapolate that performance into likely AFL outcomes. You will be disappointed if you do. I am glad JVR is (currently) not playing tomorrow. He clogs the forward line with his poor running patterns, dropped marks, and slow ground level movements. I know that is not a popular view but the data over many games bears it out.

Why JVR? You want more of a player wandering around looking lost with little guile in his running patterns and regularly being pushed under the ball. I often watch him pointing to other players to doir job while he is in no-person’s land looking like he doesn’t know what day it is. And do you like selecting players who even when the ball is delivered properly to them cannot even take a chest mark? JVR should remain in the seconds until he learns to be a forward which I doubt is possible. I know it is not a popular view but I have come to the view that he is in the Sam W. mould. I think the MFC should ensure Turner is developed further as at least he can take a mark and seems to no where to run to get into viable positions. JVR cannot do that.