William

Except the Port player is mobile, knows where to be to get the ball, and can take a mark or two.

I am not a big fan of H. Petty but the decision to drop JVR is way too late. He has become a liability and shows no forward skill at all. Hopefully he will not be recalled. I would also have dropped Viney - he is out of his depth now and has become a liability. Lever is overrated these days and it is good to see him out. We will now get to see what MJ can do and it is not before time.

The senior coach ultimately has to take responsibility for sustained poor performance. Yes, the coach doesn’t manipulate the ball on the field but that person designs the strategy, oversees the coaching of that strategy, and picks the team that is intended to implement the strategy. Hats off to our coach for identifying major problems like forward connection etc. But then it was not as if these were not visible to all, accredited senior coaches and the rest of us. The problem though has been repetitive. Remember Einstein’s Parable of Quantum Insanity (Google if you cannot remember it). So the repetition then marks him badly. Either: The strategy is flawed - possibly. The coaching of the strategy is flawed - possibly. The players selected to implement the strategy are flawed - definitely. All of which come back to the senior coach and some of it (point 3) comes back to a shared responsibility between coach and recruiters. Either way, the senior coach is responsible. He keep persisting with players that do the same things. Viney has consumed his own kool aid - thinking he is a brute force tank and does silly things repetitively. Why is he selected every week when he keeps kicking to the opposition? Spargo is slow and cannot kick it far enough. He does tackle but that isn’t enough. Petty is not a forward and should be in defence although his speed is a concern. JVR is neither a forward or a ruck - he is a major liability in the forward line. I know all the arguments - youth, confidence, etc - but they do not explain his running patterns each week and his failure to mark. Look at Sam Darcy - similar age, games etc - he is a forward. Some say don’t play him in the ruck so he can concentrate on being a forward. For most of the last 20 or 25 games that has been the case and his performance has been dismal. Why keep selecting him? Windsor - being wrecked by pushing him out of position. I could go on. We really haven’t been in contention since 2023 and even then. So why has the senior coach insisted on trying some of the contenders that we have acquired from the draft? For all those reasons, and some more, 9 years is enough and a dignified exit should be encouraged by the MFC management. The costs of inaction will be continued mediocrity, lost memberships, lost sponsors, and a dismal period for those who stay loyal to the red and blue.

Sure. Two dropped marks as a KPF cost us goals in the second quarter. Normal service resumed.

We 'persevered' with him for 5 rounds at the start of the season and his performance was, frankly, embarrassing. It matched some of the poor showings last year. His game last Monday was similarly poor - looking lost, never being where the ball was to have an impact on the scoreboard as a forward, and unable to cause any turmoil in the packs (much less take a contested mark). So what do you expect to happen in the next 3-4 weeks? I predict just more folly and the liability will continue.

What an extended run around the places on the ground where he has no impact, no scoring chance and just looks lost all the time? That is a strange concept of ‘worth’. At some point, MFC supporters will concur that JVR is not a viable AFL prospect in his present incarnation as a forward. Perhaps he could make it as a defender but I doubt it given his immobility and his lack of marking ability. As a forward though he doesn’t contribute and we have had plenty of sample observations over the last 18 months of that fact. Give some of the other prospects a chance to show what they have to offer is a more ‘worthwhile’ strategy IMHO at this stage of the ‘lost’ season and add JVR to the trade list.

I am good friends with an ex StKilda player and we usually see each other early Monday mornings in the Virgin lounge as we catch the early flights to our different work destinations for the week. We obviously talk football a bit. The topic of MFC's terrible kicking came up and his conjecture is that all the players are in states of exhaustion at the time of kicking for goal because the game has sped up so much to when he played. Then why is MFC worse and he thought that other sides were just fitter. Several testable hypotheses immediately emerge and being that way inclined I sought out some data. Here is a graph that is quite interesting because it puts to bed several possible hypotheses. It is the Goal/Behind Ratio from 1980 to the start of this week's round. It is calculated by dividing the total goals of sides each season by the total number of points. The Total net of MFC, just takes Melbourne's goals and behinds out of the overall aggregate. The MFC ratio is that pertaining only to Melbourne since 1980. The use of a ratio means that the length of the season, number of teams and other variations (like Covid-19) don't really influence the trend. So: 1. Goal kicking accuracy overall improved then flatten out and since 2018 has been slightly improving - which negates on face value my friend's tiredness conjecture. The game has become faster over the course of this time series. 2. The variability of MFC's ratio would be replicated if I did the same analysis for other teams individually. The smoothness of the aggregate is just because some teams are better than others. 3. Since 2018 and up until this year, MFC was broadly tracking the aggregate, which puts to paid the idea that we have become worse over this period. It doesn't however negate the conjecture that for key games poor kicking has cost us winning - like some of the finals in 2022 and 2023. But over the season, our kicking accuracy has been broadly in line with the rest of the competition and improving. 4. This season something dramatic has happened at MFC that is not being replicated in the overall competition. MFC has dropped to its lowest ratio for this 45-year time span - down to 1.02, which means we are kicking as many points as goals. The ratio in 2025 to date for the rest is 1.42. MFCs average between 1980 and 2025 (to date) has been 1.36. So while I don't think the explanation provided by my friend is satisfactory, something is amiss with MFC.

He has been abysmal all season and should not be played again. He is not the answer long-term and we might be able to get something from trading. Tom McDonald should be playing and now the season is done we should see whether M. Jefferson can do the trick. I stood next to him today in the Betty Cuthbert room and he is one tall fellow which doesn’t mean he will work but he has the height. I especially like D. Turner today who can take some great marks. But they should leave him in defence. Petty is also not the answer down forward - he is quite languid and doesn’t seem to be able to hold his marks.

Agree. It was a poor decision picking him. He is often in no-space nowhere near where the ball is going and today that was so obvious he didn't even crash too many packs - one I counted. His 3 marks were uncontested. No score. No impact. Shouldn't be in the side. Kozzie needs to be more disciplined - that 50 and Fritsch's brain fade largely cost us the game at the end. Not to mention the poor kicking. The umpiring was inconsistent but that is not why we lost.

Our forward line with go back to Rounds 1 to 5 if JVR is selected. His so-called ‘good form’ in the seconds has been against the weakest sides. I saw nothing of those performances that would tell me he can cope with the Collingwood backline. So it will be another fail - wandering around lost, dropping marks or, rather, not even getting near the position required to drop them. Jefferson has been superior at Casey in recent weeks and deserves another go. He couldn’t be worse than JVR would be. So all upside in giving him a chance.

We will be disadvantaging ourselves if we pick JVR. The forward line is functioning much better since he has been absent. I counted five direct score involvements from AJ on Sunday - clever taps to advantage. He is also more mobile than JVR. JVR should be required to string several games together at high level for Casey before any suggestion of coming back into the senior side. That might take us into the trade period (hopefully).

Ridiculous to drop McDonald and keep Spargo. The former is faster over ground than the latter (goes well in the early season time trials), can take a strong mark (whereas the latter doesn’t), tackles at least as well, and can kick it straight and longer than 30 metres. He could play in the forward line and be more effective than Spargo. I also don’t rate Lever anymore anyway. So there is that.

I am in the ‘maybe he wasn’t that good all along’ camp. Sam Weideman showed glimpses too on the odd occasion. JVR has not been able to hold a mark since 2023. I didn’t play football at any significant level but like riding a bicycle, does a good player actually ‘forget’ how to mark the ball? It is clear his positioning is all wrong and the defenders know how to work him under the ball in pack situations. But JVR even drops chest marks when he is not under pressure. He is also slow and cannot change directions fast enough to impact when the ball hits the ground. Often he is lost in no-person’s-land. And from today’s VFL performance, not a lot changed. He often looked ‘lost’. So the question is whether a lack of confidence leads to a total abandonment of key forward skills? I doubt it given this pattern has been around for all this season and most of last. I just don’t think he is the solution.

Can the current team and coaching strategy prepare us for another premiership? Answer: No chance. Whether the senior coach was instrumental in the final success of 2021 is moot. A plausible narrative is that he inherited a legacy from Paul Roos and a lot of maturing first-round picks and we won that flag despite the coach. But the reality is whatever the causality was then, the trajectory has been downhill since notwithstanding the two residual final appearances that followed. Last year we finished 5th last, less wins than losses and a percentage below 100. This year we have deteriorated further and are a long way from the performance I see in the top teams at present. I hear that it ‘takes time for the new plan to bed in’ story line. How long? They have had months to ‘bed it in’. Are the players that unskilled and lacking in nous that they cannot change their playing strategy after months? What I see each week from the stands is a team that lacks essential skills - kicking is often poor, marking terrible in some key situations (like JVR - our alleged key forward), missed tackles, lacking pace, etc. I see habitual mistakes in selection - last week was classic - the forward line was an embarrassment. Why did they think selecting JVR and MJ and BF and CS would kick a winning score is beyond me. None of those players are, in my view, currently up to AFL standard, yet the senior coach keeps giving them opportunities. I am also worried that the new younger players that definitely have talent will be undermined by the coaching staff in the same way that those who have gone before them have - for example, some here think that JVR is a star with massive potential. I don’t. But whatever is the fact, he is unselectable now and cannot exhibit basic skills required to play the game (like holding a mark once in a while). So even if the conjecture that is did have massive potential is valid, he is now a total liability and that must be down to the way he has been coached either in technical and/or psychological terms. So all that says to me, that it is time to rethink the football strategy - clear out the coaching ranks, delist some of the players that will not be part of the next premiership and be patient while the newcomers mature and take us up the ladder.

JVR should never be selected again and delisted/traded although I doubt we would get much from the trade. Some have said that he should be tried as a defender. The problem is that he is too lumbering and cannot change direction at the pace required. And as I have indicated before, the narrative that he is just 'out of form' or 'lacking confidence' is avoiding the issue. His running patterns are terrible, he cannot take marks and often is jogging on his own with back to play and trying to work out what is what. That is more than 'out of form'. Fritsch was again lazy and when he did actually have a chance did nothing constructive. Langford was exceptional.

Apropos of this comment, which I agree with, I noted @binman disputed my assessment in the preview for last week's game that JVR was a liability based on the official data. I haven't had much time but I quickly compiled a comparison between 3 key forwards at about the same stage in their career. Here are some relevant aggregates. They are averages after 46 games for Player A, 44 for Player B (a few years ago), and 30 games for Player C (contemporary of Player A). They are all of the same age (when the averages were calculated) and all were recruited low in the draft as key position forwards. Two of the three play(ed) for MFC. They tell the story I think. Only one with be a superstar of the game. I am sure you will be able to put names to the three players.

In his first year at Casey, JVR was considered the next big thing for MFC. Like many players who do well at that level, he has failed in the next two seasons (and 45 senior games) to replicate that reserves form. So it is no surprise that he kicked a few last week - Richmond's reserves defense are so far below AFL standard that one should not extrapolate that performance into likely AFL outcomes. You will be disappointed if you do. I am glad JVR is (currently) not playing tomorrow. He clogs the forward line with his poor running patterns, dropped marks, and slow ground level movements. I know that is not a popular view but the data over many games bears it out.

Why JVR? You want more of a player wandering around looking lost with little guile in his running patterns and regularly being pushed under the ball. I often watch him pointing to other players to doir job while he is in no-person’s land looking like he doesn’t know what day it is. And do you like selecting players who even when the ball is delivered properly to them cannot even take a chest mark? JVR should remain in the seconds until he learns to be a forward which I doubt is possible. I know it is not a popular view but I have come to the view that he is in the Sam W. mould. I think the MFC should ensure Turner is developed further as at least he can take a mark and seems to no where to run to get into viable positions. JVR cannot do that.

I am informed by the stark contrast in the way the forward line players worked on Saturday compared to the last several games. I was at the game watching their running patterns closely, which is something you can do from the stands that is not possible watching on TV. Tom Fullerton displayed solid running patterns - getting to where the ball was or was coming and using height to advantage the smaller players. He can also actually take a mark, a capacity that JVR seems to be unable to demonstrate. JVR’s running patterns are also poor and he cannot be considered now for whatever reason (form and confidence, or, alternatively, that he is simply not good enough per se - I am in the latter camp). If it is poor coaching causing his lack of development then how does that actually work given he has been exhibiting these poor patterns for the whole of this 45 game career to date? Further, Fritsch is a selfish player who does not defend much. Dropping both immediately introduced players who elevated the pressure that was brought to bear and gave us higher probabilities of scoring after an inside 50 attack. We all could see that on Saturday and the causality was undeniable. Hanging on to the ‘JVR superstar in the making’ narrative or the ‘Fritsch is a gun’ narrative has cost of us games. Last Saturday demonstrated in rather clear terms the flawed nature of both narratives. They should stay in the reserves team. Every game counts now if we are to improve our ladder position by the end of the season. We don’t have the luxury of carrying those two players.

Sounds like PR for the Board and Coaching Staff. The ‘club‘s deepest weaknesses’ are: 5 out of the last 20 games with increasing losing margins. Resistance to dropping players who are clearly not up to it - either terminally or temporarily. Rigid tactics during games when it is obvious the opposing coach has worked the ‘plan’ out and has adapted. Repeated destructive kicking to nowhere. A key forwards who is touted as superstar in the making displaying virtually zero skills that define a star forward - the comments by the great forwards in recent weeks about this players footwork, positioning, inability to mark even when the ball is delivered to him properly, and total failure to lead are very damaging. Ridiculous repetitive press statements from the president and coach. A board full of the in-crowd Melbourne money cohort that behaves as if we are still a premiership contender. All of those things speak to major changes being necessary at both the board level and in the football department area. In most sports, a 5/20 output would demand a change of coach. It isn’t just a temporary problem - the trend started at least in 2023.

I know many on this discussion board dislike the media and conjecture that it is systematically 'out to get us' (US = MFC). The reality is that the media is commercially focused and the MFC (admin, plauyers, coach etc) keeps giving the journalists material upon which to make sales. Having said that, the Guardian's newsletter 'From the Pocket' , which comes out each Wednesday made some good observations today about the MFC situation. The summary of today's newsletter - https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/apr/16/from-the-pocket-afl-newsletter-melbourne-demons-simon-goodwin-max-gawn carried the title 'Love and optimism turns to despair as Melbourne reach end of an era' and is in my view quite balanced and insightful. Two excerpts capture my sentiment on the current state: The lunatics who abuse them after games (and film themselves doing so) always accuse them of lacking effort. But if anything, they’re a team that’s trying too hard. If anything, they’re too committed to Goodwin’s rigid way of playing. Everything – from the way they win the ball, to the way they move it, to the way they explain themselves afterwards – is laboured. Their senior players are down on form, but most are trying their guts out. And: Compared to most sports around the world, the modern AFL coach gets a lot of time and a lot of leeway. Goodwin has been at the club for more than a decade and is contracted until the end of next year. But the era of “contest and dee-fence” is over. The game has moved on and Goodwin’s side hasn’t moved with it. If they lose to the Dockers this Saturday, they should shake hands with the coach, handle it with dignity and look for a replacement. That's what should happen - shake hands, maintain dignity for all and move on.

Go to https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=12&playerStatus2=A&tid2=8&type=A&pid1=6962&pid2=6946&fid1=C&fid2=C Comparing JVR with Sam Darcy - almost the same age and the latter has played less games. The difference in performance is significant and there has been no improvement (the opposite) in the MFC forward since his debut. Sure WB have Naughton to help Darcy. But then we have Fritsch and Petty was there last season. When you have studied that comparison, do another with JVR and Sam Weideman - very similar at the same stage of their careers.

Goodwin game plan - bomb into the forward line so that JVR, that superstar in the making, can drop it, fumble it or some other display that demonstrates he has never been up to AFL standard. Or pacey not! Spargo handballs to an opposition player. Or Fritsch fumbles. Either way the ball soon ends up in the opposition defence and they attack and end up scoring a goal at the other end. If that isn’t the plan then why is the coach continuing to play these players? Either way - senior coach should be gone by the end of the weekend.

I keep reading that the senior coach "took us to a premiership". Well, in one sense, that is obviously factually correct. But correlation is not causation. Where is the evidence that it was down to his innate ability and capacity as a coach that made the difference between us beating the WB that day (via a massive third quarter only) or not? An alternative and plausible narrative is that we won in 2021 despite the senior coach. And as the synergy of that year has faded - with injuries, age, poor recruiting etc - the capacities of the senior coach are manifesting to our discontent. I go to most games. I frequently see very poor coaching decisions (or rather lack of decisions) and the opposition making changes that are successful within game and with selections. And tomorrow we have Spargo, JVR, Petty, Fritsch, Viney - all either well past their prime or not up to AFL standard in the first place - being selected ahead of a guy like Turner who at least can take a mark and get hold of the ball and kick goals. All these players who keep getting games without justification are seemingly pets of the senior coach. I also saw comment that comparing JVR to Sam Weideman is a travesty of justice (my words). I urge those who refute that comparison, and, instead, believe JVR is the next big thing to go to the statistics and do a like for like at the same career point. Haunting. Time will tell but in the meantime JVR just keeps getting a game despite delivering outcomes that would not justify selection. And is a liability to our probability of success. best wishes bill

I have been unconvinced about JVR since he debuted with all the hype that he was to become a superstar and solve all our forward issues. His poor performances have been rationalised as ‘he is young’ ‘he has a young body’ etc etc ‘give him time’. Well he is 21 years old. He has played 45 games and really never shown any signs of being the solution. Yes, he kicked some goals in 2023 and 2024 but so what. Someone had to kick some goals. He drops marks continually and rarely leads. Jason Dunstall, who was a great forward, analysed JVR last night and was highly critical - no forward craft was the conclusion. And for the ‘he is only young’ narrative, Sam Darcy has played only 21 games is a bit taller and is the same age and is becoming a great asset for his team. Who would you prefer JVR or Sam Darcy? No contest. And, then there is the ‘at least he busts packs even if he cannot mark’ narrative. Last night, the opposition were smarter than us. JVR drops marks and Geelong scout the ‘busted pack’ and away it went again. So, in addition to not being able to mark our forward thrusts he actually sets the opposition up for their own forward thrusts. I counted several occasions where that happened last night. There was another incident where the ball was in our forward pocket and there was a scrimmage and JVR was standing looking the other way with his hands on his back and then suddenly realised the man that was on him had the ball and away it went up the ground. Conclusion: total liability and should be dropped. I do not believe he is up to AFL standard. And the responsibility for continually playing him and Spargo and Fritsch etc who contribute nothing is on the senior coach. That is why he should resign immediately. This situation has been a long time coming - at least one and a half seasons. Since May 2024 we have won just 5 out of 19 games played. That is the performance of a bottom four team. And the reasonable assessment is that despite all the hype about changing game plans etc, the team has steadily demonstrated an increasing level of incompetence. And our kicking is appalling now. Do players suddenly lose their ability to kick? Probably not. It is probably the fact they are so tied up in a plan that they cannot execute that they just let go. Time for calmness. Best wishes Bill Ps: I had trouble logging in last week and the Admin set up a new account name for me (thanks). My old account name was Billyboy (same E-Mail address) and it would be great if the two accounts could be linked or rationalised.