FearTheBeard

6 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

I’m still angry. It was a goal. Marchbank didn’t even protest (unlike Silly-Silvagni I’m the 93 GF).

How did the goal umpire categorically decide it was touched. Usually the call (99-1 ratio)  is “it’s a goal but it may have been touched “ but MFC got the one umpire that decides he categorically thinks it’s touched.  
 

Sure it wasn’t the sole reason we lost … but it was one of the reasons we didn’t win !!! 

Yes, this is the point nobody is talking about enough. The ARC's decision was correct based on the technology they have available (let's not go down that rabbit warren though).

Why did the goal umpire decide to call it touched?? don't reckon I have seen one called as touched like that all year. 

51 minutes ago, binman said:

Give me a spell.

We were not 'garbage' for the first quarter and half.

The blues were brilliant. Their intensity was off the charts. And we stood up amazingly well.

You've managed to insult both the Dees AND the blues (if we were garbage for a quarter and a half any decent team, let alone a tem of the Blues caliber, would have gone into half time with a 6 goal lead)

Such rot.

On the radio after the game, one of the analysts said the 'demons lost no admirers, they were awesome' (he also went on to say that ARC decision was clearly an error and questioned how they could have made the decision so quickly).

Without a word of a lie, i immediately thought to myself, yes they will - but not from any objective person, but rather it will be dees fans who can't see the woods for the trees. 

This was the pressure rating for the match (note 200 is consider elite, finals like pressure - we finished with an average across the game of 200. That is unbelievable).

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	196	224
2	185	201
3	207	197
4	214	202
Match	200	206

The fact that the blues had an average of 206 is credit to them. Amazing pressure - i would be very surprised if they have had a higher rating in any other game this season. 

No other team has come close to that sort of sustained pressure in a game against us this season. By way of comparison in our previous encounter both team averaged 170 for the game.

And IIRC the Pies Port game, which many have said is the best, most intense game of the season, was aprox the same as the blues dees game.

Most finals don't get to those levels. Our GF win didn't. And nor did the Pies Cats game on Friday night for that matter. 

And before you dismiss the stat, clubs put huge stock in it. It was designed by Champion Data for clubs, not TV.

If you don't believe me listen to McRae's post match presser - he promised they would lift their pressure rating ahead of the game and in the presser references their pressure being back to it's very best - 'at 2'  (note: the data the clubs get, which Brendan Sanderson has said is shown to players on the bench thru the match, is expressed as say 1.8 for 180 - fox and the herald sun just adds a zero to make it sexier and easier for fans to grasp).

I have no idea what your post has to do with mine. My point is that Melbourne did not lose the game because of umpiring decisions. The ARC followed the process correctly and made the only decision it could make. The problem is the Goal Umpire who for whatever reason called touched when they haven't been calling touched on those sort of plays all year.

After 5 minutes into the second quarter Melbourne controlled the game but for 5 minutes at the end of the second and 3 minutes at the start of the fourth. Yes, the pressure was outstanding from both sides except for tackles inside 50 where we found wanting (lost the count 21-8) from both sides but again what does that have to do with my point? I responded to a poster who said the umpires are the sole reason that we lost. Maybe read that post first.

2 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Ummm, I think you’ll find that they actually were very much the reason we lost. 
 

 

Yep because the umpires are the reason we were garbage for the first quarter and a half, the umpires cause Christian Salem to stream through 50 and have the worst shot for goal imaginable? The umpires are the reason our foot skills were as poor as a VFL side, they are the reason our ball movement wasnt up to it and most importantly, the umpires are the reason that Carlton were the better side on the night and deserved to win the game. Give me a spell.

Plenty of threads on the internet to bash umpires. They are humans, there will be different interpretations, and everyone is always going to be cross with them. 

Umpires are never the reason a team loses and they certainly were not the reason we lost on Saturday. 

1 hour ago, Kozzie4PM said:

Great Intel ftb. I was shocked that we hadn't had a crowd over 60k in the home and away since 1982 and went back and checked it and actually couldn't find that game. Is 1982 the right year? Even in the finals against Carlton our crowds haven't been massive in that time with 68k in the 88 prelim at Waverley, 56k in the 94 qualifying final and 75k at the famous final in 2000 (we won all three of those btw). I'm surprised as Carlton have huge support and combined we've played in half a dozen GFs since 1982. Anyway - there ya go. 

My apologies, it was 1980. Don’t know why I remember 1982. But ye 43 years is a long time. Need a good Melbourne away turnout to get it over 60k and I just don’t trust our members to pay for reserved tickets.

14 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Grundy will be in. 

Watch this space. 

@FearTheBeard how are ticket sales tracking?

This could be 70k surely. 

All of level 1 is reserved, Level 4 barely touched in public reserve.

AFL is about 30% ahead of where it was in the round 12 game and MCC is up to row X level 4 so expect it to be reserved up to row AA come game day.

Im thinking somewhere between 58-65K depending on how big the GA turnup is. Traditionally don't get massive crowds against Carlton, havent had 60K since 1982 (Understood both sides have largely been [censored] since then).

37 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Unfortunately I will not be able to watch a second of the match LIVE if the Sydney game is on Saturday night. Hoping for an afternoon or a Sunday timeslot but I reckon you can bet the house on a Saturday night.

Saturday twighlight or Sunday 1:10pm most likely. Brisbane Saints, Port Richmond, Geelong Dogs all have finals implication so reckon two of those get saturday night. Pies Bombers and Carlton Giants for the other Channel 7 slots.

7 minutes ago, Pipefitter said:

I’d back us to win interstate .

Yes over the last two seasons we were 12-0 interstate but not this year, our form hasnt been great out of Victoria and we are 10-1 at the MCG which is our best record at home for decades.

Wait, don't we enjoy Kayo streams being a minute behind, cutting out regularly, quality dropping to about 4 fps...

In the eventuality where we don't finish 2nd, which I think is likely because I think we will lose to Carlton or Sydney there are two choices.

For me I think our best chance is finishing 4th and getting a crack at Collingwood in a QF, beat them there and stay in melbourne, if we lose we would wrap around the draw and have to go to brisbane in a Prelim which is less than ideal.

Otherwise, finish 3rd, try your luck against Brisbane in a QF up there and hope we aren't mentally scarred in a Semi and cop an in form Carlton.

Aim surely is don't lose any of our games, get percentage over North and Hawthorn and finish second.

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

Ok thanks.

It's telling me now the M34 has no tickets left.

Might have to get them through the Demon Army which will make @WalkingCivilWar happy 😄

Plenty available in M34 and M35

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

Thanks. I paid $15 last week against the Tigers for M32. Strange.

Do you know if they'll release more tickets in M36-M29? Or is M34 the only level 1 likely to be available? 

Ye Richmond put level 1 tickets on sale last week to get more people to go which clearly didnt work.

All of M28-M36 will likely be reserved.

On 7/31/2023 at 9:53 AM, Jaded No More said:

I was going to get some tickets for our away game against Carlton.

I am a H&A member so generally it's only $15 to upgrade to a reserve seat.

Why then is it telling me the tickets are $38 each to upgrade?! and why is it only showing me 4 bays total available, all behind the goals?

 

Edit: tagging @FearTheBeard

They only selling in M34 and M3-M6 at the moment. M34 will be next to the Demon Army at least.

Its all behind the goals because M50-M57 and M8-M16 are all Carlton reserved seat areas.

Always been $38 to reserve level 1 Goal for members at home and away games, $15 for level 4.

7 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Here is my round 24 crack.

Friday night 7:50pm
Brisbane V St Kilda - Prime time Friday night with St Kilda possibly facing a "win and in"

Saturday 1:45pm games (Saturday games have become a bit of a grave yard slot so I'll put the inconsequential games here)
Hawthorn V Fremantle
North V Gold Coast

Saturday 4:05/4:35pm
Port V Richmond - Stand alone game with Richmond possibly facing a "win and in"

Saturday night - 7:25pm
Geelong V Bulldogs - home finals or top 8 at stake for these two sides demand Ch 7 prime time.
Sydney V Melbourne - Would have made this ch 7 prime time but it's now uncertain if this is Buddy's SCG farewell.

Sunday 12:40
Essendon V Collingwood - Something a bit different. If Essendon are out of business then I'm putting this game on Foxtel. The crowds will still flock for an early arvo game and I want Carlton V GWS to be stand alone.

Sunday 3:20
Carlton V GWS - prime time Sunday arvo Ch 7 time slot for what appears to be a "win and in" game for either side. What an exciting finale.

Sunday 6:10/4:10
West Coast V Adelaide - Likely to be inconsequential so happy to have this as a late game to give Carlton V GWS all the attention. Still early enough for Perth locals at 4:10pm.

Brisbane St Kilda should have 0% chance of being on the Friday night. Brisbane should and will wallop them, but it's Gill's beloved Saints...

For me, Carlton Giants should be the Friday night game, 7th v 8th likely coming into the game and two sides that play enjoyable football. They also both play on the Saturday in round 23 so no issues with 5-day breaks.

West Coast V Adelaide should be played at 3am Monday morning.

14 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I don't know how rock solid Drew Jones (Fox Sports) is as a journo but he was adamant on SEN last night that the round 24 game against Sydney will be Saturday night.

Can imagine that 7 will want it in case it is Lance's last game. Saturday night or Sunday 3:20 would be the only available times. Saturday night more likely imo for a bigger audience,

1 hour ago, ElDiablo14 said:

Are we expecting 70k plus on the Sunday?

Richmond actually put out a tracker for their home crowds this season before round 1 and initially had 58,000 for this game.

I suspect that will be quite accurate, the big MCG crowds rely on large GA turnouts (Hawks Carlton and Saints Essendon showed that). So it is very hard to gauge the crowd from ticket sales.

Reckon anywhere between 50K and 70K is a possibility but doubt it will get to 70K especially now that the kids go free has ended.

For those purchasing tickets this week, remember it is our away game and the Demon Army will be in M33 in the Ponsford. M34-M36 95% sold out but they will but M29-M32 on sale today at some point.

Alternatively, if you hate your life, you can buy seats in the back of M3 and M4 and sit directly behind the Richmond cheersquad.

Round 1 2014 we played the worst St Kilda side I've ever seen (half their side was out injured on their way to the Spoon) and Melbourne kicked 6.15 to lose by 4 goals. It was one of the lowest quality matches of all time. I think that game will end up looking a masterpiece compared to what I'm expecting on Saturday night.

36 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

I agree that if you look it at like that then we are average, and there is far more nuance and context to make sense of that record is why it is.

Any given year - injuries and carrying injuries into games are the biggest predictors of outcomes. 
‘22 it’s been outlined that last 2/3 months we had significant structural issues due to injuries as well as multiple players playing injured. 

‘23 we’ve also had some key injuries, blooding new players and we’re still 4th, If we can get Oliver back, and a few other things, such as refinement of gameplay and the training regime, I’d say we’re a greater likelihood of improving that record significantly. And who knows - optimistically/realistically snag another flag.

Our game plan clearly stacks up against the sexy pie machine…
 

Dont get me wrong, Melbourne's best football is the best in the competition, we just don't produce it for more than 15 minutes.. But injuries are not an excuse when you look at what the Pies have delt with over the last 12 weeks and they keep winning.

2 hours ago, Nudge said:

Again, reference the Hoyne sports day comparison that clearly suggests otherwise! The data says we’re playing the same for same time of year & that we just need to connect and convert better Ala 2021 r13-19 then r20-GF — we’re in thick of it on all key metrics and UNLIKE LY we’re gonna have a well rested group not carrying major injuries (at this stage) inc a rested Oliver & Gawn!!!

Thats great but unless your eyes deceive you, we have been bang average for 30 weeks now. Our record since round 11 last year is 15-13. This is not 2021 where we had a Darren Burgess lead fitness program that drove the mid-season drop off. We are either currently in a 28 week drop or just aren't a very good team and I'm just realistic about it. 

39 minutes ago, binman said:

Hopefully they will also be skewed by the final 9 weeks of the season (inclusive of finals) - you know, like they were in 2021.

 

stop clinging to 2021, this isnt that team.

This is rubbish though for us. Our attack in the last 6 weeks has been ranked 15th in the comp. The numbers are skewed by our first 9 weeks where we were putting up big scores against poor teams and kicking straight.

Not sure Joeboy watched the game this week.

Gawn - Drinking Bath Water

Petracca - Kicking beyond abysmal

Neal Bullen - Get out my [censored] club (might have gone over the word limit with this one)

Goodwin - Plan A forever

Kardinia Park does funny things to oppositions, toss of a coin game especially if its going to be 7 degrees and rain hammering down 

13 hours ago, Kozzie4PM said:

Got seats in A10 at kardinia park. They were 50 bucks compared to most others that were 60 bucks. Does anyone know if that means they are restricted view? It didn't say that but still a tad concerned. Not sure if this is your area @FearTheBeard ?? 

ye A10 and A11 are the Melbourne bays. Did you maybe buy concession tickets because I don't think there are any restricted view seats in that bay. Well, they are restricted view in that there is no elevation and we need binoculars to see the other side of the ground.