Altona-demon

binman has argued in other threads a change of strategy at the centre bounce, I'll keep an eye on it this weekend against St Kilda. I;m not sure if other DL posters agree, but watching the Carlton/Richmond game, and then the Dogs/Pies game the skill disparity between those games and our game was noticeable. I think we could be on a hiding to nothing if these stats play out and the game is more flowing and open - with less stoppages etc.

This is a fantastic point - I think the thing that makes Clayton so divisive among the fans is the fact that he is a "statistically heavy" player. On paper he looks very, very good. But there seems to be something which irks certain fans who seem to watch his involvements and don't believe his +/- score would be that great.

I like the effort you have put into this post, but to suggest such a strong correlation (positive or negative) between winning flags and clearances is, in my view at least, misleading. There are a number of other factors which I would contend were more important for each of those teams in winning flags. The most notable being forward driven defensive pressure - the real hallmark of Richmond's game. People don't watch Richmond and say - they are defined by losing clearances and Vlaustuin/Houli rebounding off halfback (although I agree this could be a strategic face of their game). They note the second efforts and shut down pressure of their small forward brigade. This isn't to say I don't agree with your analysis that "clearances aren't as significant KPI as people may think". Tend to agree on that measure, in fact i'm not sure we get much from such a dominant aerial ruckman either.

I think that this is basically what is going on - he's a great bloke and a bit of a larrikin, but like you say let's see him fire up and throw that weight around. Especially now he's getting a chop out from Dogga up forward.

Binman - interesting perspective. I enjoyed having a think about whether we were deliberately conceding clearances in order to create opportunities to "intercept mark" a very risk strategy indeed you'd have to think. Fortunately for us, Fremantle was incredibly wasteful with their posessions going inside our defensive 50. If we adopt a similar strategy I don't think we will be so lucky - let's not forget who our defenders were defending against. This was a relatively good match up for us - as soon as the weather comes on and intercept marking becomes harder and we play against a small forward line - i'm not so sure that this strategy will "stack up". In particular, I am not sure Jake Lever will look as good when the ball is at his feet more and more often. It was noticeable however, and commented on regularly by Browny, that the set up of Melbourne was great behind the ball. Which is a good positive. Let's see some different looks at stoppage from our midfield group - a bit of variety.

The template for beating Melbourne - and it is a well known one now is: 1. Rough up Max Gawn. It never gets called, and it always has the affect that longusffering referred to above, Max goes off the boil and either (a) plays worse, or (b) alienates the umpires. This template was provided by Port Adelaide in 2019 - when they just deliberately played hard on Gawn. 2. Maintain the outside shoulder of the Melbourne midfielders - either waiting for the opportune shark, or the tackle to create another stoppage. This is effective against Melbourne for two reasons. Holding the outside, puts midfielders in a box seat to receive outside half-baked handballs which Clayton Oliver will inevitably provide. Secondly, Melbourne midfielders show week in week out that they are like seagulls to the chip - Harmes is particularly poor at this, there is no need to throw three men at a contested possession with a likely outcome of a 50/50 disposal. So other teams throw 1 in - and either (a) concede the contested possession and receive the half baked handball on the outside (because they have the number) or (b) just make the tackle on the Melbourne player and allow the other Melbourne players to lock the ball in. I'm not sure how many games I've watched with this pattern plays out week after week, and tbh it was better against Fremantle with Petracca, Brayshaw and Jordon through the middle, least they can sometimes provide a bit of stoppage spread. It gets demonstrably worse with Viney and Harmes in the same midfield as Oliver. If people are interested, I'd be happy to pull together some footage from the weekend and show the examples of how we lose clearances in this predictable manner week after week. As an earlier poster said - can we not just adjust our stoppage set up and have Maxy really exploit his first tap advantage by pushing beyond the immediate area. Just doesn't seem to be much variety in our stoppage play?

I know that sometimes there can be something of an echo chamber of negative sentiment on DL - but I do think that there were some concerning aspects of the game which other posters have talked about. It's concerning for me that: 1. A debutant made our other midfielders look lazy. 2. Our disposal inaccuracy was so inaccurate - and I want to emphasise that these poor disposals were often a result of not a great deal of pressure from the Freo defence. 3. I continue to believe that Max Gawn's impact at stoppage is more than nullified by the inablity to connect ruck to midfield. I say more than nullified, because it is actually becoming a disadvantage given just how easily midfielders seem able to read and shark Max. Early in the first quarter we were losing the clearance count something like 7- 0. Against Fremantle.

Couldn't agree more - you could see this even in the scratch match against Richmond, we don't defend fast small forwards very well. tbh i'm not sure? Jetta - Rivers?

Is it time enough now to reflect on why we resigned Jack and didn't do the hard thing and move him on at peak value. We now have a broken player in a position where we have enough depth to cover him taking salary cap we may want to use on one of Salem, Oliver or Trac. Just not sure that we did the right thing signing Jack long term...even if it felt like the emotionally right thing by the club.

One other minor thing I forgot to mention in my post above - did anyone else feel like Richmond started quarters strongly but fell away in the last quarter of the quarter? Not sure if this is a reflection on conditioning of our team - I know that much was made of it last year - but would it have carried over? Was also impressed by the amount of run in the last part of the last quarter. We seemed to be able to go up a gear in intensity - and this was against fresh legs that Richmond had pulled on - v. impressive.

Yeah I couldn't put my finger on it - but I think you are bang on. The times when he got exposed in defensive 50 was when he was kinda out of position. But that dash of halfback (loved when he ran around Lynch...d**khead) really helped us transition so well.

Played four smalls forward basically - TMac and Jacko as the talls. The mix was OK. Spargo in particular was able to lay a good tackle to force a goal, and ANB was there and thereabouts. Still probably a fair assessment that none of our small forwards looks dangerous in the same way as some of the oppo forwards can. TMac and Jacko took the odd contested mark, but Jacko in particular was muscled under the ball on a few occassions. TMac was able to get some separation on a couple of occassions and as some on the thread have noted even clunked a few. Agreed that he looked a bit better. I think its probly a fair comment to say that the forward line sort of "held up" - and will actually be much much more threatening with the addition of Milkshake, BB, and Weid.

I suppose we should be thankful AFL commentary still hasn't approached the old mates club that is cricket commentary. Why can't we have people that are passionate about the game, know the players and aren't ex-players in the box? Agree was refreshing even to have none of the over the top commentary you are forced to sit through these days.

Positives for me: 1. Hunt able to execute the clear game plan to use his speed off half back - looked good. HOWEVER, his lack of tackling ability was clearly exposed on a number of occasions - and I am not sure whether we should be carrying him in that way. 2. Tom McDonald - took a number of contested marks, and managed to create space on the lead twice (once leading to a goal). Was a good performance from TMac. 3. The speed of transition play and general play was a noticeable step up from last year. I'm not sure why - but we looked quicker and cleaner. Still some sloppy disposals - ones that I can remember from Nathan Jones - back into the corridor. 4. Petracca picked up where he left off. 5. Agree Chandler, and Jordon both look likely. I also think that Jackson looked OK today. 6. Jake Lever had a very strong game - and along with May that combination is starting to look very good. I got nervous the way May was throwing his body around, but I understand that that is the way he plays the game. He did a good job on Lynch for me. Negatives 1. Oscar Baker experiment was OK - I counted two goals which were directly linked to defensive mishaps from him - he's not a strong defender - and also didn't see much to justify the "he has pace to play that position". 2. Trent Rivers - seemed a bit quiet, but I guess not everyone can be dynamic. 3. Forward line lacked something - can't put my finger on it. But wouldn't be against Mitch Brown coming in - Jackson didn't really threaten...

Agree re Farmer. Freeman been good at the back. Gee this forward line looks rough.

Who is 44 - he is very good in the guts and looks very strong Laurie and Bowey both look very good. Rosman - looks laconic - not a good sign. Not enough effort for me. Clear gap between the twos and threes in this squad.

I feel like you get more from rotating Petracca in and out of the forward / midfield line. His fitness now warrants it as well. I think LJ may surprise some this year with his agility as a key forward - especially through his ability to create a second contest after bringing the ball down, or to even rove under another tall. Big unknown for me is his set shot. Fritsch has it all - apart from a set shot - fix that and he could be a 50 goal fwd - but we all know that. Mitch Brown, looked good when he played - although many DL'ers don't rate him. He's tough and has an engine. Tick there as well. For me I think they will play TMac forward again - maybe rotating him through the wing forward role. I still think TMac's fitness and running is very hard to defend if he continues leading up the ground creating space for the other forwards. Even when he was playing poorly over the last two years, I still felt like he was just a couple of clunks away and he just looked half a yard off. Hopefully as the training reports suggest he's addressed this fitness niggle time will tell. Spargo - another perenially underrated player on DL - had a good season last year, and though not a fan favourite looks more than able of filling Kozzy's space. He also provides a number of goal assists and linking play. The key for him is providing lockdown small defense - which he has not been consistent at (same for Fritsch). I agree with the posts above, there is still some dynamic talent in this forward line even with Weed and BB out. How the coach pulls that together will be great to watch.

OMG....ANOTHER small? Wtf?

Just adding my two cents - Jack tackles all day - put him in the forward line and let him loose on defenders. Amazing contender for a midfield convert to forward. Love the idea!

Great to have Spargo-pants signed for another year. Great football IQ, Kozzie could learn from him on how to position for the fall of the ball from contested possessions in forward 50. Tackling pressure needs to increase, but thats nothing new for our forward line.

Fellow DLanders - watching the way Richmond played in the Grand Final got me to thinking about the strategic role that shepherding plays in the modern game. Why? It's clear that Richmond apply a high degree of "tackle pressure" especially inside their forward 50 through their small forward brigade. To diffuse the pressure the defending exiting team has got a few options: 1. Hand pass (requires players within an immediate vicnity - and naturally contracts the space in the defensive forward 50 leading to a higher chance of locking the ball into stoppage). 2. Kick short (potentially a higher risk version of 1). 3. Kick long (low chance of retention of possession, but clearing the "immediate" goal scoring threat - however, creating high risk of re-entry into goal kicking positions). 4. Run the ball out - risk holding the ball or poor disposal version of 1,2, or 3. In addition to these options, it seems to me that the natural way to reduce the pressure on the ball player in the defensive 50 is to lay some HEAVY shepherds on small forwards - who by the nature of being small, should not be strong enough to ride through the shepherd. The question I have is around the officiating of the shepherd. If for example the shepherd causes the small forward to fall over and be taken out of the play - but the arm is extended and minor contact with the hip is made - is that likely to result in a free kick against the defensive team? I just wonder if the shepherd could be used more strategically to diffuse this small forward pressure, especially where it could be used to physically intimidate smaller players through strategic, planned and DELIBERATE use of shepherding. Has it been done before?

Weideman is a very very good player. He's one of these perenially underrated players on Demonland. 19 goals from 13 matches is not a bad return, and this is with a dysfunctional forward group. I place him in that very talented 23-24 year old group that we have at the club. Only a lot of upside with this kid as he grows up.

What are the strategic improvements to the MFC that you would like to see us develop to take into the next year? My initial thoughts: 1. The ability to adjust gameplan. I feel like Geelong have illustrated the ability to change gameplay to take away the strength of their opponents on multiple occasions. Whether this was keepings off with us, or their ability to get Menegola back as a wing defender. I like Plan A, B, and C. It was disheartening in the least to see Oscar Mc thrown forward or Steven May late in the fourth quarter as desperate "change ups". MFC is far too predictable in our gameplan strategy. 2. Increase the spacing at the ruck and stoppage. Teams know we are seagulls to the chip at stoppage. Let's include Brayshaw in the centre mix as he has an ability to hold space and create options for Oliver and Viney to hb to. A couple of key observations about our stoppage work: - There is no value winning a contested possession in congestion if (as is the case with Viney) - you are likely to get caught, or (as is the case with Oliver) you are likely to have a rubbish disposal and create a very damaging turnover. - Our setup continues to be poor - the amount of times opponent teams are allowed to sit at the top or outside of our stoppages and pick up our contested ball work does my head in. Work it out. - Connection - hitouts to advantage are dominated by Max - but these don't convert to clearances - why? What is going on? Again let's work this out. - Let's see Oliver continue the composure and run from the stoppage, he looks a COMPLETELY different player when he backs his pace and clears the stoppage. Let's get him to embrace that. 3. Entry into forward 50. - If we bomb it in there - let's increase the fwd 50 defensive pressure IMMENSELY. Let's do this by trying to play Jack Viney (arguably our best chase down defender) in the forward 50. - If we can enter with more panache, then let's chase Ben Brown to have a more centralised lead up forward creating space for Weid as the second forward (ala Hogan and McDonald 2018). - Let's move TMac on. Interested to hear what other demonlanders think?

I've heard that sources close to the club say that Tom injured his foot, and it was really bad, as in never going to be the same player sort of bad. And tbh, he's been running around as if this was the case. he just looks soooo immobile. Incredible given the way and amount he could move in 2018. He looks lame, and he needs to be moved on. it's not pretty, but we need to win, and we need to make these calls now. So move him on and get someone tall big and fast who can lock the ball inside the fwd 50. This probably is not Ben Brown in honesty - but until that defensive pressure increases in fwd 50 we are cooked. Especially the way that we KICK into forward 50.

Just had a look at his set shot accuracy - he is around career 60% - significant upgrade on someone like BFritsch - who kicks at 48% (career and 42% this year). His goal average of 2.2 vs. BF 1, shows what sort of lead up forward he could be for the club. Fingers crossed.