titan_uranus

So by Round 15 we'll have had 10 FTA games and only 4 Foxtel games. If I have a complaint, it's that only two of those 10 FTA games will have been Friday nights (and zero Thursday nights), only one of which was a home game and it will have been in Alice Springs. By comparison, to the same point of the year St Kilda will have had one Thursday night game and two Friday night games, and two of those as home games at Marvel. It's a very minor complaint TBH, given where we've come from. Plus further opportunities to come (albeit again mainly away games): Round 15 away to Essendon - they're playing on Sunday the previous week so would have to get them on a 5-day break to get a Friday night Round 16 home to GWS - not much competition that week for prime time (Geelong v Essendon?) so might get a Saturday night at best? Round 17 away to Port - has to be a good chance for a Friday night, or Thursday night if they're still happening that late in the season Round 18 home to Hawthorn - nope Round 19 away to GC - nope Round 20 home to the Dogs - another good chance Round 21 away to West Coast - possibly, but Perth games are so often on Sundays Round 22 home to Adelaide - nope Round 23 away to Geelong - will depend on ladder positioning going into that round.

Melksham dropped. Wow.

But the issue isn't that the stats don't exist. They exist. They're just not made available to the public. This year has seen a major step forward though, with the AFL website now making significantly more data available to the public. It's not an easy system to navigate but much more info is there now.

Thanks @Axis of Bob. Out of interest, where did you get the scores from centre clearances differential stat? Is it on footywire?

Jackson out sucks. Big time. He's not just a "second ruck". His midfield/clearance work when he's up the ground, and particularly in at centre bounces, is strong. Whether Weideman or TMac, they don't have his skill in the clearance work. Good luck to Weideman. This is his chance. Jackson will come straight back in when he's ready, so Weideman has two weeks to try to convince the FD that someone else should make way for Jackson.

This is a great post and IMO the best summation of things. Maturity is the single biggest factor I think. It's not just getting older and playing more games, it's learning from those experiences, and I'm increasingly confident Goodwin has learnt how to help players extract knowledge and improvement from their games. On ruthlessness I'd add that he traded Frost in circumstances where he was much loved within the club and supported by a sizeable chunk of fans. It is much easier to argue now having seen how May and Lever (and Tomlinson) have worked together this year, but it was apparent to me in 2018 that the single most important thing we needed to do was to move on from OMac and Frost. It was a tough call to make because of the number of supporters who liked Frost's dash, but it was the right call. Game style is interesting though. I'm not sure that's a net win for Goodwin. He's made a number of mistakes over the last four years IMO with how we set up and play and I'd overall say he's struggled to work out how he wants us to play, and to implement it.

Yes and no. We're second last in the comp for average centre clearances and we're third last for centre clearances compared to our opponents: we average 2 fewer centre clearances than our opponents per game. So being -13 in that stat is an outlier, but the general concept that we're weak in centre clearances is not.

What if he or Rampe had broken Butler/Langdon's neck? Then we'd all of a sudden care? Both of them engaged in off-the ball non-football actions. The fact neither Butler nor Langdon got injured doesn't mean they shouldn't be penalised, it means the penalty should be low (a fine maybe). May engaged in an in-game football action. Franklin's decision to oil his arms up is the likely reason his elbow slid way up from its starting point. He did little wrong. Again, the system continues to look at outcome (May hits the head, Lemmens and Rampe don't do any damage to their opponent) rather than action.

It doesn't look like Lemmens got anything for the body slam on Butler. Apparently these are OK but an obviously accidental elbow which slides up someone's greased arm is worthy of a fine. As I said last week after Fritsch's penalty, the system is not working.

Don't start me on the god-awful AFL clash "policy". It's a disgrace. If Sydney's uniform clashes with ours (whether jumper or socks), they should be required to change it to avoid the clash. Not us. Them. However, there is no sock clash. Sydney's socks have white strips. We didn't wear different socks in last year's Cairns game.

Hawthorn has 70,000+ members and drew 15,000 to a game against West Coast (a bigger interstate side than most). We've been insulted since the dawn of time for having supporters who aren't invested, don't know the players, etc. It grates me to no end that Hawthorn escapes those insults. Their membership figure is inflated, they have a smaller core of supporters than we do but the amount of people who signed up after the threepeat was off the charts.

How? I can accept that we can set up and plan to win whether or not we win centre clearances. But how exactly will we be "far less dangerous" by winning them?

@jnrmac is right. The rule is Law 18.13(c): "A field umpire shall award a free kick against a player who...whilst in possession of the football, does not bounce or touch the football on the ground at least once every 15 metres, irrespective of whether such Player is running in a straight line or otherwise..."

The top 4 race is broader than that. I don't think any of the current top 8 can be ruled out, particularly when everyone down to even St Kilda in 11th is just one win behind 4th. West Coast still has 8 games in Perth to come and road trips include Carlton, Adelaide and Collingwood. Brisbane is a bad free kick off being 6-2, doesn't leave Queensland for the next three weeks, and still has 7 games at the Gabba to come, including three of its last four. Sydney keeps performing against good sides. Richmond is Richmond. Geelong just pumped Richmond. It's still very even.

Assuming Brisbane wins but doesn't put on another 7+ goals to the margin, we'll finish the round having played (and beaten) 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 17th and 18th. That's a 3-0 record over the current top 8. For comparison: Dogs: 2-1 Port: 1-2 Geelong: 3-2 Brisbane: 1-3 Sydney: 3-1 West Coast: 1-2 Richmond: 1-4

I watched that last quarter. Carlton's defensive pressure through its forward half was non-existent. Weitering is good but that's not going to stop opposition scores against when the midfield is so dominant. The Dogs' midfield is peerless in the comp and Carlton showed they could produce good football through the first 2.5 quarters, but they're not going to see 5 goals out of Betts each week, and hopefully Hibberd can cover him well next week.

Not a single one of that commentary team is good. Richo is undoubtedly the worst. He adds literally nothing of value. Nothing. Everything he says is meaningless, cliched, guff. He's hopeless. McLachlan's a terrible commentator. 70% of what he says is "[club] has kicked X of the last Y goals", or "[club] led by 10, now [other club] leads by 5". Darcy's actually commentary is fine but his mistakes with names are unforgivable.

Carlton's on track to beat the Dogs. We take them lightly (by "resting" players) at our own peril.

Dogs are +12 in the clearances and +5 inside 50s but 14 points down at three quarter time. I'm not watching the game but the Dogs' defence has been its weak link all year. I'm not sure a side can rely on its (incredible) midfield all season as a way to both attack and defend. Also Dunkley out probably hurts them more than we might first have thought. Meanwhile May's got a huge job next week on Mackay, albeit that our team defence is significantly stronger than the Dogs.

It's interesting, we're clearly not doing well in centre clearances this year. But, we're 8th on team v opponent average clearances and 5th for team v opponent average stoppage clearances. We're also a very, very clear 1st for team v opponent average intercepts, at +8.5. West Coast is second at +3.4. And we're also first for average marks inside 50 conceded, at 9.5 (Geelong at 9.8 is the only other side below 11). So, we struggle in the centre bounce set up, but we generally don't concede marks from those inside 50s, and we're a strong side for stoppages around the ground. The question I suppose is whether we can get better at centre clearances and add that string to our bow, or whether it's just not going to happen this year but it's also not going to destroy us, given our strength in other areas. So we know that we intercept

It’s not so much the 4-17 discrepancy that hurts us, it’s the manner of the 17 against. Far, far too many were cleared out the Sydney attacking side of the circle. So we’re conceding them in the most dangerous way possible. It’s not talent. We were 33-22 in all other stoppages. So IMO it’s strategy more than anything. I’m convinced other teams are planning for us at a level we’ve never experienced before. I’m also convinced Viney being out is a huge loss. Jordon, Harmes and Jones (last week) aren’t close to his level and don’t apply defensive pressure on the opposition mids like Viney does.

Goodwin in the presser noting we lost centre clearances 4-17. That's a shocking result, but the fact we could still win against a side starting the round in the top 4 is a good sign. 33-22 in stoppage clearances so it wasn't all bad.

We're now three games and 20%+ clear of everyone except the Dogs and Port. You'd think our three games against them are going to be decisive to whether we finish top 2/4 or not.

His first half was terrible! His second half was much better though, particularly the fourth quarter, and IMO he keeps his spot after that lift.

Can't understate this enough. He's a critical part of our midfield rotation and whilst Jordon and Harmes were good in spurts, Viney's defensive work in the stoppages is vital.