John Demonic

Meh. You can pretend you're above it all if you like, but I consume and enjoy all footy culture, be it demonland, deebrief, fox footy and free tv shows, websites (Bigfooty, mongrel punt etc) radio and podcasts. We're in the premiership window and I intend to consume as much as possible, and call out the ones who go down the route of hot-takes. So what? It's not like this is going to last forever.

I for one will be watching the Sunday Footy Show to see [censored]-eating-grin Matty "They can't win it' Hottake-Lloyd eat-his-words or dig his hole deeper. Loved seeing Kane Cornes on Mondays Classified, stand up to him by telling him we can still win it because of our system. Flustered-at-someone-disagreeing-with-him schoolboy-Lloyd unthinkingly reacted with the attempted gotcha response: "what system?" - Our defensive system Kane responded with. And after 1/4 games remaining, it was a prescient response. Our premiership and 10-0 start gives us points in the bank for the most rational in the media, and for that I give credit to Cornes and Robbo and a few others for not jumping to the hot-take route of saying we can't win it. I should avoid the footy media, I know. lol

Ill be screaming in support of the dogs tonight, despite my hatred of them and a few delusional supporters who think they were one josh bruce/easier finals road trip away from winning it. Even switched sides 1 quarter way through the 2016 GF when I realised the umpires were [censored] over the Swans in favour of the fairytale™. Hatred of Geelong/Duckwood is just so much greater though!

Win or lose, It might be season defining for both teams, if it's an epic tussle that proves Freo (and us) have very strong premiership credentials. It would be awesome to smash them and begin a campaign of demolition again, but the neutral in me kind of wants an epic match of the year contest where both clubs play a brand of ruthless defensive pressure to the death, that makes Geelong and their media sycophants [censored] themselves about another prelim disappointment. Carn the Doggies at GMHBA too!

Yeah, he had rigor mortis on Jamarra in the last quarter.

Gus to the wing?

In the last 2 years though?

We're loading to win the 6v7 elimination final by 15 goals

Goody is more likely to bring in like for like replacements than shift Gus to the wing imo. Baker in for JJ could be on the cards, he had a very good game for Casey st the most opportune time ...Unless Oskar's papers are already signed, and they would be if he doesn't come in for JJ on that wing.

No. I feel depressed whenever I log on to DL and see this photo. How the f are we always the ones that let an oppositions underperforming high draft pick forward get his first bag of goals and Rising Star nom lol.

Interesting. Thanks. So in determining the probability %, does this model use a particular method for each game? Bookies odds? For eg I was determining my 3/1 or 2/2 permutations based on many assumptions like Collingwood beating Port & Carlton, Freo beating WB. goes to show that 3/1 is difficult for any team, so it most likely comes with top 2 reward. The 2/2 is curious, I'd have thought falling out of the top 4 was the most likely, given the ladder % of other teams can catch up to us with easier fixtures of some of our rivals eg Bris/Sydney already are in the 120's

This ladder predictor is super fast, and you can run through the last 4 rounds in a minute or two: and change results to tweak the ladder. https://predictor.squiggle.com.au Going 2/2 is just annoying to predict where we end up as its going to be based on who we win or lose to, and what they end up doing but its far from ideal and will most likely have us outside the top 4. Heck, even winning 3/4 can have us outside the 4 on % If we can beat Coll/Carl/Bris and Freo win all their remaining games, then Friday night is basically the decider for 2nd and loser will end up between 3rd or 5th on %. Syd v Coll is a pretty big game that could decide that order. Melb/Syd/Bris or Melb/Coll/Bris will all come down to % Beating Freo, Carl and Coll is also going to make Melb v Bris most likely a battle for top 2 finish. But we all know this. Not worth thinking about losing to Collingwood but winning the other 3 is also going to mean us making top 2 comes down to Coll losing to one of Syd/Carl Some of the permutations are too much really with 4 rounds to go! Not worth getting worked up about.

This sounds like one hell of a party

The Naarm Smith Curse

2nd on the ladder and a QF against Brisbane in week 1 off the current ladder. All going to plan.

Fair enough. I guess I have less faith in Weid firing, than I do in Benny rehabbing from a knee injury.

That's like saying 'If Dunstan comes in and averages 40 disposals per game, it could be the end for Viney"

He doesn't always kill us. Goodwin has been known to put the clamp on him 'when it counts'

tl;dr Wednesday is stressful enough without having to do late night mathematics

Bailey Firstch

I don't envy the job of recruiters, having to watch teams like North regularly to form opinions on uncontracted players.

True. Naughton off covid, Bruce off injury, and both without a year to sync up. Good that we get them now than in a few weeks then. EDIT: One thing I remember this time last year from the First Crack show, is that they made sure Hannan got onto May, so that Bruce or Naughton could isolate Lever. They also had English floating forward to cause havoc. Interesting to see if they try this again.

The doggies pose a different challenge than our last 2 meetings, with Bruce & Naughton back together for the first time since his injury. Easy to forget he was leading the Coleman last year at one stage It might be too far gone for them, and we can bury them with a great performance, whoever they have in their team. But I still have them at their best, a harder challenge than Freo, so I concur.

It was very notable how big they were against us. Breaking tackles and making them stick. Anyway, Let's hope this topic becomes irrelevant and they choke a prelim to Sydney or Freo! (And we cruise past Bris/Carl provided we lock up top 4) *I refuse to acknowledge Collingwood exist