Mach5

Maybe. But all this happens in real time. Adelaide can negotiate, say they’ll bid if we don’t, then wait until after we’ve made our selection at pick 3, then trade with GWS, still affecting our pick 8. Fine, we still get pick 3, but maybe we could have selected the same player & had extra if we swapped for pick 6.

But what do GWS hav to give to adelaide to get pick 4? And I’d imagine they’d then want to slip into 3 to stop us bidding. In that case it’s only slipping back 1 spot for us, but what price do we put on that, and what could GWS possible have left to offer us? I think we keep our picks, bid on Green at 3, GWS match, we end up happy still. That’s the bluff. Eventually we trade 3 for 6, 2020 1st rounder and 2020 3rd rounder, something like that. Late picks in 2020 may have little value to us now, but next year we’ll be able to hand them off to all the teams with academy selections that need to accumulate points. Still value to be found.

I reckon Steven May might have the inside track here. Salary will be the issue.

GWS don’t have enough picks this year & next to keep us happy, and it’s now too late for them to trade players to get more picks. I think they’re banking on us taking what they have to offer. And I think we’ll decide it’s not enough to slip down 3 places. Bidding on Green also ensures they have to use their pick 6 on Green, and there’s one more player available for us at pick 8 that might not be otherwise. Conpletely comfortable for us to actually select Green. If he’s as good as he should be, you find room for that sort of player. Seriously, if offered Cripps for a 1st round pick, would we knock it back? No, you’d make it work.

They need the points themselves for Green. I think we’re now in the realm of accepting 6 and their 1st rounder in 2020 plus shrapnel, or trading with someone else who has more assets & wants pick 3. GWS might have to look at dealing with Sydney & Adelaide, and hoping we don’t bid on Green.

I’d wager we’re interested in whatever returned GWS can get for Bonar.

Looking forward to seeing what Josh “Kevin Costner” Mahoney can pull out of his hat.

Yeah, nah. Nothing has changed.

GC Suns in the box seat here

100% agree. We didn't do all this work, and aren't willing to greatly assist (a top-4 rival in) GWS, just to get back a late first rounder next year. I also like the idea of North giving our 2nd rounder to GWS for Bonar, then GWS giving it back to us.

This is exactly why I've been happy all along to split pick 3. First rounders in general bring great value, but there is no guarantee you're getting the best player with a top 3 pick, or even that they'll end up being in your best 22. Draft for talent and character to give you best raw materials to work with, but development is where it's at.

Or alternatively... everyone wants it.

A young man in demand = good news for us. GWS working to make it work.

Think back to the Hogan trade with GWS. We gave up more than seemed fair at the time, but in the end we were paying GWS more to make sure they didn't bid on Viney. If they bid on JV we'd have lost the ability to use pick 4 on another player, so the trade had more intrinsic value to us. The reverse is happening here with slightly different rules, but the precedent is relevant.

I'll be surprised if this is correct. I'm guessing they only have half the story and have assumed the rest.

Jenkins or Sauce Jacobs?

It's all relative. If it's a weaker draft after the first 2, and picks 3 to 20-odd are about the same, then the draft drops off again and gets weaker... then have we really given away a lot by handing off 26 and 50? Especially if our 3rd pick is aimed at a late smoky. And again, the first pick for next year, even if our eventual ladder position ends up making it pick 8 like this year, is actually worth less next year. Safe to say we wouldn't be getting the 8th best player in the draft in 2020. And with the academy bidding, don't forget that it devalues early picks, but conversely increases the value of later picks, as picks in later rounds evaporate as points are needed for early bids. Suddenly pick 42 becomes pick 36, etc. If there really are that many academy selections, it could mean pick 42 becomes pick 30. Not a bad year to trade our way to the tail end of the draft.

I thought the same thing myself. Any idea who Landsberger supports? Maybe hoping Green gets there! Otherwise, very confusing.

Fluff piece. Says that Sydney & Adelaide are both very keen, having visited Green's home in Canberra. Landsburger is assuming Essendon wouldn't be interested and that might increase the chances of Green slipping past 6. Yeah, nah.

Interesting point. I wonder if the AFL has considered what happens if GWS trade away their 2020 1st rounder this year - their 2020 2nd and 3rd rounders just get downgraded to 3rd & 4th rounders? Weak "penalty" they may be happy to live with. I'm sure GWS would tolerate a year in 2020 where they take the bare minimum of 3 late picks and essentially opt out of a weak draft. Or do they have academy selections?

Fair point, although a little too much blame resting on Oliver's shoulders in this example for my liking!

But the point is that he was saying the same things when he was firmly entrenched and we were heading towards moderate success. It's not simply something he has come out with to positively explain away his exit.

Jimmy Jordon.

The key is how much value pick 3 holds for GWS. It's not that valuable to anyone else. I think we're waiting for the proceeds of offloading Bonar, but the problem is that the interested clubs are being held up by other stalled trades, and also there's a general awareness that they need to offload him, so they're hanging out for a bargain. Our best bet may be to actually take him ourselves, even if he pushes someone else out.

And for anyone silly enough to think it is all spin, he was singing from the same hymn book 18 months ago when we were on our march to a prelim.