Jump to content

Featured Replies

  On 08/06/2023 at 06:13, Roost it far said:

I have no idea what that is saying. What does a threat rating of 18 and an expected threat of 0.31 mean? 

Expected threat of 31 means that compared to every kick in his database (170000 kicks) when that player takes a kick from a similar position, to a similar area, under similar conditions, it would be expected to end up in a score 31% of the time.  The threat rating of 18 means compared to the expected threat, the specific players actual kicks resulted in a score 18% more than expected.  Chandlers kicks would be expected to result in a score fairly often (31% of the time) but actually result in a score 49% of the time. 

It would be far better if he also include the opposite ie turnovers and scores against by the same players.  

 
  On 08/06/2023 at 13:56, Watson11 said:

Expected threat of 31 means that compared to every kick in his database (170000 kicks) when that player takes a kick from a similar position, to a similar area, under similar conditions, it would be expected to end up in a score 31% of the time.  The threat rating of 18 means compared to the expected threat, the specific players actual kicks resulted in a score 18% more than expected.  Chandlers kicks would be expected to result in a score fairly often (31% of the time) but actually result in a score 49% of the time. 

It would be far better if he also include the opposite ie turnovers and scores against by the same players.  

Great stuff. 

I also just liked seeing 31 mentioned a lot.

I think threat rating is skewed favourably for players in the forwardline, there's less possessions in a scoring chain involving their kick compared to backline players.

 

I've made a number of posts recently stating how totally confused/mystified I am by rules interpretation and umpiring in games.

Now along comes yet another stat ..............!

FMD !!

  On 08/06/2023 at 22:43, Bitter but optimistic said:

I've made a number of posts recently stating how totally confused/mystified I am by rules interpretation and umpiring in games.

Now along comes yet another stat ..............!

FMD !!

People frequently rightly complain about the meaningless disposal effectiveness stats as pointed out in the article.  It's good to see someone trying to do it better.


  On 08/06/2023 at 22:35, old55 said:

I think threat rating is skewed favourably for players in the forwardline, there's less possessions in a scoring chain involving their kick compared to backline players.

Not entirely.  It’s the expected threat rating (y axis) that is skewed. The threat rating is relative so it compares players taking kicks from similar positions against the average. Ie the 0 threat measure is average.

Bowey was low on both measures.  He is a defender but it basically says he takes safe kicks and they result in scores to us less than the average. In my view, it would be better if expected threat also subtracted how often the kicks resulted in score to the opposition, and the threat did the same.  I could imagine Frosty would look ok with just the offensive numbers, but if you included turnovers not so good.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • REPORT: Essendon

    What were they thinking? I mean by “they” the coaching panel and team selectors who chose the team to play against an opponent who, like Melbourne, had made a poor start to the season and who they appeared perfectly capable of beating in what was possibly the last chance to turn the season around.It’s no secret that the Demons’ forward line is totally dysfunctional, having opened the season barely able to average sixty points per game which means there has been no semblance of any system from the team going forward into attack. Nevertheless, on Saturday night at the Adelaide Oval in one of the Gather Round showcase games, Melbourne, with Max Gawn dominating the hit outs against a depleted Essendon ruck resulting from Nick Bryan’s early exit, finished just ahead in clearances won and found itself inside the 50 metre arc 51 times to 43. The end result was a final score that had the Bombers winning 15.6 (96) to 8.9 (57). On balance, one could expect this to result in a two or three goal win, but in this case, it translated into a six and a half goal defeat because they only managed to convert eight times or 11.68% of their entries. The Bombers more than doubled that. On Thursday night at the same ground, the losing team Adelaide managed to score 100 points from almost the same number of times inside 50.

      • Sad
      • Clap
      • Like
    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • PODCAST: Essendon

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 14th April @ the all new time of 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect another Demons loss at Kardinia Park to the Cats in the Round 04. Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show. If you would like to leave us a voicemail please call 03 9016 3666 and don't worry no body answers so you don't have to talk to a human.

      • Thanks
    • 34 replies
    Demonland
  • PREGAME: Fremantle

    The Demons return home to the MCG in search of their first win for the 2025 Premiership season when they take on the Fremantle Dockers on Saturday afternoon. Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Thanks
    • 109 replies
    Demonland
  • VOTES: Essendon

    Max Gawn leads the Demonland Player of the Year ahead of Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Kade Chandler and Jake Bowey. Your votes please. 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 & 1.

      • Thanks
    • 24 replies
    Demonland
  • POSTGAME: Essendon

    Despite a spirited third quarter surge, the Demons have slumped to their worst start to a season since 2012, remaining winless and second last on the ladder after a 39-point defeat to Essendon at Adelaide Oval in Gather Round.

      • Vomit
      • Sad
      • Thanks
    • 271 replies
    Demonland
  • GAMEDAY: Essendon

    It’s Game Day, and the Demons are staring down the barrel of an 0-5 start for the first time since 2012 as they take on Essendon at Adelaide Oval for Gather Round. In that forgettable season, Melbourne finally broke their drought by toppling the Bombers. Can lightning strike twice? Will the Dees turn their nightmare start around and breathe life back into 2025?

      • Like
    • 723 replies
    Demonland