29 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I picked up the latest AFL Prospectus on Tuesday, for me it's must-read material before each season and has been for the last several years.

In regards to positions, they have actually broken them down into General Defender, Key Defender, Mid, Wing, Ruckman, General Forward, Mid-Forward, Key Forward.

There's a piece by Troy Luff on the change in gamestyles over the last couple of years and a particular focus on what Richmond did last year. He makes a comment in regards to the two most asked questions they often get at Champion Data - the most asked is "what's the most important statistic" and his response is "Points For" - that might appease some of the statistical luddites

Nothing wrong with stats 'Gonzo', what I have issue with is the analysis...a lot of it doesn't stand up.

...I'm talking about the predictive analysis. It's easy to use stats to make a point after the event but Champion have been off the mark with the last 2 premiers and their player analysis is really just disguised (not so well) click bait.

does that make me a luddite?

25 minutes ago, rjay said:

Nothing wrong with stats 'Gonzo', what I have issue with is the analysis...a lot of it doesn't stand up.

...I'm talking about the predictive analysis. It's easy to use stats to make a point after the event but Champion have been off the mark with the last 2 premiers and their player analysis is really just disguised (not so well) click bait.

does that make me a luddite?

If they could predict things with 100% accuracy they wouldn't be sharing the info, they'd be making a packet backing winners.

The analysis does stand up, for the most part. Of course they can only base this on historical statistics and players performance can change from year to year, especially as they mature. You can't look at it and then predict the ladder from first to worst for the coming year but you can look at trends especially in game style and a players relative worth to his team.

Take Dustin Martin for example, they do a piece on him as the 2017 player of the year. Early in his career the piece states Martin was being under-rated compared to his actual output. Then in 2016 he spent longer periods in the middle and was getting more touches but have less overall impact on his teams performance ie their ability to score. The football world starting getting on the Dusty bandwagon but relative to his performance in 2016 Champion Data felt he was being over-rated. 2017 he smashed it from pillar to post and the stats bare that out. They show some comparative heat maps from 2016 v 2017 where in 2016 often he was getting his touches around half back/midfield. 2017 he was getting more touches around midfield/half forward. He was also winning more one on one contests, far more than his next closest rival in Dangerfield (I believe the stats for 2017 were something like 86 1:1's won by Dusty vs about 26 for Dangerfield who was 2nd).

Of course the ultimate statistic is the scoreboard and the best way to know what is happening is to actually watch the game in front of you. But the advanced stats that Champion Data have implemented allow us to better articulate what is happening, break down coaching strategies/game styles and make comparisons between teams and across years.

Two more things I took away from their intro in this years Prospectus;

1) Up until 2008 scoring chains predominantly began in the back half of the field. This changed in 2009 where the amount of scoring chains between back and forward half were roughly equal - then since 2010 it has flipped and the majority now come from forward half. This correlates with Ross Lyon and Malthouse initiating the forward half press with teams getting more turnovers in the forward half providing scoring opportunities.

2) Since they began keeping scoring stats in 1999 the origin of scores has stayed pretty much constant. 60% from turnovers, 35% from stoppages, 5% (roughly a goal a game) from kick-ins. Teams that receive a kick-in after a point are likely to either turn it over or create a boundary throw-in or ball up and turning it over in the forward half is lethal. Looking at this from a rudimentary perspective you'd think the best plan of attack would be to just keep smashing the goal front from all angles. Chances are you'll get it back for another crack anyway. From the other perspective if you have possession at a kick-in and decide to play keepings off you better make damn well sure you retain possession or at the very worst create a stoppage. This explains why so many teams just go long and to the boundary from a kickout as its preferable to get a stoppage than a turnover and the chances of running the field and scoring from a kickout are extremely slim.

44 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If they could predict things with 100% accuracy they wouldn't be sharing the info, they'd be making a packet backing winners.

The analysis does stand up, for the most part. Of course they can only base this on historical statistics and players performance can change from year to year, especially as they mature. You can't look at it and then predict the ladder from first to worst for the coming year but you can look at trends especially in game style and a players relative worth to his team.

Take Dustin Martin for example, they do a piece on him as the 2017 player of the year. Early in his career the piece states Martin was being under-rated compared to his actual output. Then in 2016 he spent longer periods in the middle and was getting more touches but have less overall impact on his teams performance ie their ability to score. The football world starting getting on the Dusty bandwagon but relative to his performance in 2016 Champion Data felt he was being over-rated. 2017 he smashed it from pillar to post and the stats bare that out. They show some comparative heat maps from 2016 v 2017 where in 2016 often he was getting his touches around half back/midfield. 2017 he was getting more touches around midfield/half forward. He was also winning more one on one contests, far more than his next closest rival in Dangerfield (I believe the stats for 2017 were something like 86 1:1's won by Dusty vs about 26 for Dangerfield who was 2nd).

Of course the ultimate statistic is the scoreboard and the best way to know what is happening is to actually watch the game in front of you. But the advanced stats that Champion Data have implemented allow us to better articulate what is happening, break down coaching strategies/game styles and make comparisons between teams and across years.

Two more things I took away from their intro in this years Prospectus;

1) Up until 2008 scoring chains predominantly began in the back half of the field. This changed in 2009 where the amount of scoring chains between back and forward half were roughly equal - then since 2010 it has flipped and the majority now come from forward half. This correlates with Ross Lyon and Malthouse initiating the forward half press with teams getting more turnovers in the forward half providing scoring opportunities.

2) Since they began keeping scoring stats in 1999 the origin of scores has stayed pretty much constant. 60% from turnovers, 35% from stoppages, 5% (roughly a goal a game) from kick-ins. Teams that receive a kick-in after a point are likely to either turn it over or create a boundary throw-in or ball up and turning it over in the forward half is lethal. Looking at this from a rudimentary perspective you'd think the best plan of attack would be to just keep smashing the goal front from all angles. Chances are you'll get it back for another crack anyway. From the other perspective if you have possession at a kick-in and decide to play keepings off you better make damn well sure you retain possession or at the very worst create a stoppage. This explains why so many teams just go long and to the boundary from a kickout as its preferable to get a stoppage than a turnover and the chances of running the field and scoring from a kickout are extremely slim.

...but 'Gonzo' you can see this stuff. The stats only backup what an astute football observer already knows.

I get annoyed with them when they reel out the click bait stuff to sell books at the start of the season.

Luff comes out with some stupid saying "without data you are just a [censored] with an opinion" but "without a feel for the game you're f----, stats or no stats"..

If you understand the game as I'm sure you do then they are a handy tool. They sell themselves on being more and it seems to be working for them.

2 hours ago, rjay said:

...but 'Gonzo' you can see this stuff. The stats only backup what an astute football observer already knows.

I get annoyed with them when they reel out the click bait stuff to sell books at the start of the season.

Luff comes out with some stupid saying "without data you are just a [censored] with an opinion" but "without a feel for the game you're f----, stats or no stats"..

If you understand the game as I'm sure you do then they are a handy tool. They sell themselves on being more and it seems to be working for them.

The problem I have is that the advanced stats aren't available during the season or in realtime. They release their book at the start of the year then it's only the coaches and clubs who pay thousands that have access to the data. Noone can watch every minute of every game live at the ground but the stats give you the ability to break down what you can view on TV and provide analysis on both the macro and micro level. Yeah someone at the game might be able to tell you "ANB has worked his arse off today" but looking at the GPS data over the season and combining it with things like contested possessions, loose ball gets, inside 50s, scoring chain involvements etc etc creates the ability to add more in depth analysis and more certainty around that analysis rather than merely having your eyes to rely on. 

Conversely they also provide the ability to refute certain commentaries such as "so and so has had a great season" when in fact they may have accumulated a lot of cheap possessions but have had little overall impact on the team's ability to succeed.

3 hours ago, rjay said:

If you understand the game as I'm sure you do then they are a handy tool. They sell themselves on being more and it seems to be working for them.

I think it was KB talking about this the other day. In reference to the AFLW matches on the weekend.

On one station (Fox? Seven? can't remember) their "special comments" seemed to centre around the stats sheets in front of them. "This girl has taken 6 marks and last year she averaged 11 marks" etc

On the other station they talked about what this mark meant in the context of the game and why it was a big deal.

One can be a slave to stats.

If KB is against it then it must be a good thing 

21 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I picked up the latest AFL Prospectus on Tuesday, for me it's must-read material before each season and has been for the last several years.

In regards to positions, they have actually broken them down into General Defender, Key Defender, Mid, Wing, Ruckman, General Forward, Mid-Forward, Key Forward.

There's a piece by Troy Luff on the change in gamestyles over the last couple of years and a particular focus on what Richmond did last year. He makes a comment in regards to the two most asked questions they often get at Champion Data - the most asked is "what's the most important statistic" and his response is "Points For" - that might appease some of the statistical Luddites

Dr G , we don't need Champion Data for that stat, it is on the score board.