I’ll post something up before Saturday. 

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Best Bet (Saturday)

Caulfield R7 No.1 Probabeel 5.00/1.80

 

49 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

I’ll post something up before Saturday. 

 

Yeah I prefer to go early with my best bet Gorg.  Wednesday evening is form night!

Probably going to continue with the value/each-way type (brings the place multi into play) but with an emphasis on class

And Probabeel is just that ... classy

But if I really like a short-priced favourite,  I'll go down that path.  For instance, if the Caulfield Track has a bit of give in it on Saturday then Sir Dragonet in the Orr Stakes would attract a lot of big wagers and could start at a very short price

And just on the racing up in Hong Kong - the locals are very big on quinellas.  It's their favoured way of punting.  When in Rome?

I'm assuming they are percentage punters because there are often 4 or 5 genuine chances to win in most of the races (and that includes any of the horses that Purton or Moreira are on!)

I've generally done ok with exactas up there but I'm switching to quinellas (at HK)

Humidor back at Caulfield but running at 1400, that surprises me. Just blowing out the cobwebs?

Value bet

Race 9, #10 Sword of mercy $7.50

The first Group 1 of the season tomorrow with the CF Orr Stakes to be run.  Will Sir Dragonet run?  Trainers Maher & Eustice are going to walk the track tomorrow morning looking for a bit of give in the track but the surface might be a Good3 by R8 anyway.  At a guess I don't believe it will run but I hope it does

The Blue Diamond Preludes will also be run whilst up at Randwick there are a couple of Black-type races as well as 2 high-stakes Inglis 2yo & 3yo events ($2Million & $1Million)

• Caulfield Card - Odds, Form & Full Fields
• Randwick Card - Odds, Form & Full Fields

And they race at Sha Tin tomorrow as well (Saturday's once a month up there) - the meeting continues until 8.45pm so the 'Get-Out Stakes' x 5 is in operation! 

• Comprehensive Form Guide (HKJC Website)
• Form Guide (Racenet.Com)
• Expert Video Preview (Each Race) - Excellent Site
• Odds & Fluctuations (Available 2 or 3 days Prior to Raceday)
• All The Tips - Available 9pm The Day Before Raceday (Tom Biddington & RacingPost - Best)

 

Edited February 5, 20214 yr by Macca

36 minutes ago, Macca said:

The first Group 1 of the season tomorrow with the CF Orr Stakes to be run.  Will Sir Dragonet run?  Trainers Maher & Eustice are going to walk the track tomorrow morning looking for a bit of give in the track but the surface might be a Good3 by R8 anyway.  At a guess I don't believe it will run but I hope it does

The Blue Diamond Preludes will also be run whilst up at Randwick there are a couple of Black-type races as well as 2 high-stakes Inglis 2yo & 3yo events ($2Million & $1Million)

• Caulfield Card - Odds, Form & Full Fields
• Randwick Card - Odds, Form & Full Fields

And they race at Sha Tin tomorrow as well (Saturday's once a month up there) - the meeting continues until 8.45pm so the 'Get-Out Stakes' x 5 is in operation! 

• Comprehensive Form Guide (HKJC Website)
• Form Guide (Racenet.Com)
• Expert Video Preview (Each Race) - Excellent Site
• Odds & Fluctuations (Available 2 or 3 days Prior to Raceday)
• All The Tips - Available 9pm The Day Before Raceday (Tom Biddington & RacingPost - Best)

 

Some very good value in this race. Sir Dragonet should be fav but lots can challenge.

8 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Some very good value in this race. Sir Dragonet should be fav but lots can challenge.

If Sir Dragonet is scratched then Crosshaven could come into about 2.80 or 3.00

But I'd be on Imaging at about 4.50 (?) if I went for a win bet. 

Might Box 4 in a trifecta including a couple of value runners (Blazejowski & Sovereign Award?)

 

1 hour ago, Macca said:

If Sir Dragonet is scratched then Crosshaven could come into about 2.80 or 3.00

But I'd be on Imaging at about 4.50 (?) if I went for a win bet. 

Might Box 4 in a trifecta including a couple of value runners (Blazejowski & Sovereign Award?)

 

Blaze was great last week, can it back it up? Streets of Avalon can be very good or average, usually not a lot in between.

Sovereign is a solid horse. Humidor is the strange one amongst the group.

Boom! Probabeel! 
had her at $5.50 cos I put it on when you posted @macca so cheers!

52 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Boom! Probabeel! 
had her at $5.50 cos I put it on when you posted @macca so cheers!

Overs!!

Good on ya Gorg and I took on board what you said about Streets of Avalon (what a warrior horse Streets is!)

Got the quinella twice so a handy collect ... I work on the principle that if you get enough reasonable collects you'll end up in front

Come on 'Sword of Mercy'!

Edited February 6, 20214 yr by Macca

On 2/5/2021 at 12:12 PM, Gorgoroth said:

Value bet

Race 9, #10 Sword of mercy $7.50

Couldn't get clear running room ... really unlucky.  Held up for more than a furlong in the straight but that's racing

Jamie Kah wins again on Prophet's Thumb ... another treble for the elite hoop

1 minute ago, Macca said:

Couldn't get clear running room ... really unlucky.  Held up for more than a furlong in the straight but that's racing

Jamie Kah wins again on Prophet's Thumb ... another treble for the elite hoop

Yeah I was on streets, got out to $9.50 too.

Sword didn’t get a run but as you said that’s racing. Shame as I had a multi on both our horses

6 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Yeah I was on streets, got out to $9.50 too.

Sword didn’t get a run but as you said that’s racing. Shame as I had a multi on both our horses

Same here  ... had a place multi going but I've had a good day today (unlike last week!)

Gone down the quinella path at Sha Tin this evening ... got a couple of roughies going (in each race) for the value

I’m on Zing in the last and that’s me done. Either way I’m up some which means even after the super bowl I’ll end up a little if I don’t win there so that makes me happy 

Bah! Pipped at the end. 
 

Good luck at Sha Tin mate.

33 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

I’m on Zing in the last and that’s me done. Either way I’m up some which means even after the super bowl I’ll end up a little if I don’t win there so that makes me happy 

I was on Ulysses but Zing looked home for you there ... at least with Sportsbet you get the bonus bet back

1 hour ago, Macca said:

I was on Ulysses but Zing looked home for you there ... at least with Sportsbet you get the bonus bet back

Yeah that helps, at the 100 I thought a good chance at the 50 knew it would get pipped.

Sha Tin has thrown up some roughies I just saw. Hope you snagged one of them.

58 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Yeah that helps, at the 100 I thought a good chance at the 50 knew it would get pipped.

Sha Tin has thrown up some roughies I just saw. Hope you snagged one of them.

Got a good collect in R8 ... 4 bets with 3 returns.  The last 2 money back

Might stick to the quinellas up there.  Boxing 4 or even 5 is like an each way bet

Purton or Moreira were involved in quinellas in 5 of the last 6 races.  That might be the clue I've been looking for

The first 4 races are often C5 or C4 races and are therefore the equivalent of BM58 or BM64 affairs.  I stay away until R7 normally

Hobart Cup today is a good betting race ... 5 or 6 genuine chances means the exotics could pay quite well

4 hours ago, Macca said:

Hobart Cup today is a good betting race ... 5 or 6 genuine chances means the exotics could pay quite well

Just looking now, you are right, a lot I like. Gotta narrow it down. Not easy.

34 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Just looking now, you are right, a lot I like. Gotta narrow it down. Not easy.

Managed to get the ok-paying trifecta with the top 2 in the betting both finishing in the placings

Classic Weiwei running 2nd added a bit of value

Well done mate!

Midweek Special (Wednesday)

Sandown R6 No.7 Bella Tiara 5.50/1.80

Good horse, def look at this race.

4 hours ago, Gorgoroth said:

Good horse, def look at this race.

Down to 7 runners now so Bella is 2.20 the place (still 5.50 the win)