A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,980]

41 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

@Macca

Surprise baby with Barrier 7 sits very well. Some of the others drew worse barriers.

After getting a nice return on Ashrun today I might put a few on that, but a Surprise baby is who I’m on.

I really like Tiger Moth & Anthony Van Dyck but my main bet will be a Box6 Trifecta or a 4/7/7 Trifecta. 

Not all that concerned with the barriers in a general sense but Anthony Van Dyck has drawn very nicely and it's a class act.  A good horse

My outsider (and it's not really an outsider) is Russian Camelot @ 12-1 ... carrying 53.5kgs with Damien Oliver on board.

The top 7 in the odds stand out to me ... then it's a decent gap to the rest (IMV)

[Macca 16,980]

Seeing we're on a new page

Full Appraisal of Every Runner - Just Horse Racing (A Must Read)

Full Field, Odds & Form Melbourne Cup - Racenet

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

48 minutes ago, Macca said:

I really like Tiger Moth & Anthony Van Dyck but my main bet will be a Box6 Trifecta or a 4/7/7 Trifecta. 

Not all that concerned with the barriers in a general sense but Anthony Van Dyck has drawn very nicely and it's a class act.  A good horse

My outsider (and it's not really an outsider) is Russian Camelot @ 12-1 ... carrying 53.5kgs with Damien Oliver on board.

The top 7 in the odds stand out to me ... then it's a decent gap to the rest (IMV)

Prob with big races is there is 8-10 that all Could be favs with another 5 that on their day can take the prize.

[Macca 16,980]

1 minute ago, Gorgoroth said:

Prob with big races is there is 8-10 that all Could be favs with another 5 that on their day can take the prize.

Yes but I reckon there is a real class difference this year with the Cup, Gorg

However,  there's nearly always a surprise horse that gets in the finish but again,  I can't get past the top 7 in the betting

I could be wrong of course so I'll be having a couple of win bets (using bonus bets) in case my trifecta bombs out! 

Good day for the exotics on Tuesday though ... as it often is when it's hard to find the clear winners.  It is often that sort of betting day much like Oaks day

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

8 hours ago, Macca said:

Yes but I reckon there is a real class difference this year with the Cup, Gorg

However,  there's nearly always a surprise horse that gets in the finish but again,  I can't get past the top 7 in the betting

I could be wrong of course so I'll be having a couple of win bets (using bonus bets) in case my trifecta bombs out! 

Good day for the exotics on Tuesday though ... as it often is when it's hard to find the clear winners.  It is often that sort of betting day much like Oaks day

Agree Finche is a chance and it’s paying $16, getting a trifecta/f4 is hard, it’s nearly worth throwing darts at the chart cos as you said, something pops up you weren’t expecting.

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

@JV7

@Macca

do a best bet for Tuesday? I’ll post one up Monday night, be good to have a multi for the day if you are both keen. Got close this week.

[Macca 16,980]

4 hours ago, Gorgoroth said:

Agree Finche is a chance and it’s paying $16, getting a trifecta/f4 is hard, it’s nearly worth throwing darts at the chart cos as you said, something pops up you weren’t expecting.

1st & 2nd should go to the class runners but after that it's a lottery.  Exacta might be the go if that was to happen

After having another good look,  Master of Reality & Twilight Payment can get into the finish.  Both have good overseas form.  

[Macca 16,980]

1 minute ago, Gorgoroth said:

@JV7

@Macca

do a best bet for Tuesday? I’ll post one up Monday night, be good to have a multi for the day if you are both keen. Got close this week.

The only thing that stands out so far is Ingratiating (No.1) in the first race but it's a short priced favourite.  Works in a multi though

I'm in for the best bet but I'll post up something later on.  Probably find an each-way chance for some value

I'm doing exacta's on the day so it's easy to include another runner if needs be

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

34 minutes ago, Macca said:

The only thing that stands out so far is Ingratiating (No.1) in the first race but it's a short priced favourite.  Works in a multi though

I'm in for the best bet but I'll post up something later on.  Probably find an each-way chance for some value

I'm doing exacta's on the day so it's easy to include another runner if needs be

Should have said best/value bet. Just like normal, throw up what ever you want.

[Macca 16,980]

39 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Should have said best/value bet. Just like normal, throw up what ever you want.

Since we made the shift to each-way or value we could have made a profit every week

Just getting 1 winner out of 3 pays its way but the early place double has also saluted in the last 2 weeks.  I missed last weekend but got 10-1 yesterday on the early place double

Get all 3 and we can get anywhere between 15-1 & 30-1.  And the picks can still win of course and if all 3 win it's happy days!

I reckon it's way more interesting but I don't have any issue with picking a shortie as a best bet.  For instance,  if I can't find anything I'll probably pick Ingratiating (which is a really good chance of winning by the way)

[Macca 16,980]

Best Bet Tuesday

Flemington Race 8 No.1 Homesman 6.00/2.00

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

EW Race 2 #4 Sweet Reply 6.50/2.35

[Macca 16,980]

34 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

EW Race 2 #4 Sweet Reply 6.50/2.35

After listening to carnival radio for a day or so I've now increased my choices in the cup to about 15 or 16!  haha

Quite seriously,  too much information has confused the hell out of me.  An exacta is on the cards now because I reckon anything can come 3rd or 4th

Promises to be a great race especially now that the barrier draw is out

And great minds think alike as I had 'Sweet Reply' on top in an exotic (along with a few others in a multiple exacta) 

The place multi is starting to take shape as well although we'll need 3 to get a half decent dividend. 

Over to JV7 for the clincher!

[JV7 2,351]

27 minutes ago, Macca said:

After listening to carnival radio for a day or so I've now increased my choices in the cup to about 15 or 16!  haha

Quite seriously,  too much information has confused the hell out of me.  An exacta is on the cards now because I reckon anything can come 3rd or 4th

Promises to be a great race especially now that the barrier draw is out

And great minds think alike as I had 'Sweet Reply' on top in an exotic (along with a few others in a multiple exacta) 

The place multi is starting to take shape as well although we'll need 3 to get a half decent dividend. 

Over to JV7 for the clincher!

Sorry lads! Had a busy weekend, haven't looked too much into it but I did back River Twain last start which ran a nice 2nd so will stick with that...

Race 2 #3 - River Twain $4.20W/$1.75P

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

10 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Sorry lads! Had a busy weekend, haven't looked too much into it but I did back River Twain last start which ran a nice 2nd so will stick with that...

Race 2 #3 - River Twain $4.20W/$1.75P

No biggie mate, take your time,

but I’ve nominated a horse in race 2 unless you mean Randwick?

[JV7 2,351]

6 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

No biggie mate, take your time,

but I’ve nominated a horse in race 2 unless you mean Randwick?

I will pick another then ?? Had a few beers this arvo so bear with me!

[JV7 2,351]

Race 6 #11 - Tavidance $6W/$2.25P 

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

Or beer with you??? Ha ha I’ll see myself out.

[Macca 16,980]

1 hour ago, Gorgoroth said:

EW Race 2 #4 Sweet Reply 6.50/2.35

 

12 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Race 6 #11 - Tavidance $6W/$2.25P 

 

On 11/1/2020 at 1:56 PM, Macca said:

Flemington Race 8 No.1 Homesman 6.00/2.00

All 3 choices are for tomorrow's meeting at Flemington

All 3 in a place multi delivers about 11-1 (boosted odds)

All 3 saluting the judge is showing a dividend of 240-1 (boosted odds)

We're in with a chance but I've got all 3 selections going in win bets or exactas

As previously stated,  we only need 1 choice to win to show a profit

As for the Cup,  my roughie is 'Twilight Payment' but there are any number of good chances that can win or get into the finish

Best of luck all!

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

Twighlight is a roughie a lot like. I think Ashrun is another but TP the best of the outside chances.

[JV7 2,351]

Got a strong tip at Echuca Race 2 #14 - Sweet Home Alabama.. It's short enough $2.50 but thought I'd pass on

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

Good luck today! Hope you end up on top at days end.

[Gorgoroth 12,966]

Sweet reply got boxed in there, nearly got to third tho. Bugger

[Macca 16,980]

3 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Sweet reply got boxed in there, nearly got to third tho. Bugger

For whatever reason we often race in tight bunches in Oz.  But that's racing

A good thing beaten was Sweet Deal the way it flew home although 'Joviality' was stuck back on the inside as well and never got clear air

The connections are far more to blame ... instructing the jockeys to get cover throughout and then the horse doesn't get the run

 

[Macca 16,980]

But we've still got 2 good each-way chances running around for us

Tavidance (Race 6) should get a run up near the speed (4th,  5th?)

Homesman (Race 8) is a frontrunner and it has drawn an inside gate