HOW MUCH CAN BRISBANE BEAR by JVM

Posted July 15, 201510 yr

If you think life's tough for Melbourne fans then spare a thought for those who follow Brisbane. The Lions have been down and out in 2015, suffering from lots of injuries to important players and winning only two matches for the season to date. As a consequence, they are deemed irrelevant by the football world and, with their fellow Queenslanders, the Suns, they hold up the AFL ladder from its bottom reaches.

Lately, they have shown much improved form against strong opposition as some of their injured players have started returning. On Sunday, they are likely to get suspended ruckman and former Demon Stephan Martin back in the team and this week, their luck could just be turning because they come across an opponent in Melbourne that is well versed in losing games when they are favoured to win.

And for the second week in a row, Melbourne is the favourite to win a match even though nobody in recent history can remember them saluting in such circumstances (if you discount games against franchise teams in their early days). The Demons couldn't crack it for a win last week when they played against the injury-depleted Bombers even after dominating the ruck duels and centre clearances, particularly in the first half of that game. And it was the second time this year that Essendon had visited humiliation on them because they couldn't beat the Dons' non-injected by any mysterious unknown substances "B" team during a NAB Challenge game in March.

So now it's on to Brisbane in an MCG game which is also a rarity because, in the past decade or so, a number of Melbourne home games against them have been played at many venues elsewhere - like the Gabba, TIO Stadium Darwin and at Etihad last year.

The last MCG home game against the Lions was however, a case in point on the issue of favouritism. The club ushered in the Mark Neeld era in 2012 with an season opener opposed to Brisbane and was strongly supported by the bookies and betting agencies. However, after a reasonably even first half, the team was blown off the park by ¾ time with the home crowd starting booing their team well before the game was over.

The good news for Demon fans is that the Mark Neeld introduction game was the only occasion since 2000 that Brisbane has beaten their team at the G. If they can maintain that

domination then it might be too much for Brisbane to bear and would put an end to their hoodoo of losing games after starting out as favourites.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Brisbane at MCG Sunday 19 July, 2015 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall: Melbourne 21wins Brisbane 20 wins

At MCG: Melbourne 11 wins Brisbane 3 wins

Last Five Meetings: Melbourne 0 wins Brisbane 5 wins

The Coaches: Roos 0 wins Leppitsch 1 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel at 1.00pm (live)

Radio - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Melbourne $1.57 to win Brisbane $2.40 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET Brisbane 11.8.74 defeated Melbourne 6.15.51 at Etihad Stadium, Round 19, 2014.

Melbourne was promising to finally break its Etihad Stadium hoodoo when it held a lead of more than two goals early in the final term when a surge by the Lions saw them kick six goals to one to record a comfortable victory under the roof.

Stefan Martin was best on ground and picked up the three Brownlow votes in this game against his old side

TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Billy Stretch

C: Daniel Cross, Bernie Vince, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Aaron vandenBerg, Chris Dawes, Jeff Garlett

F: Angus Brayshaw, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C: James Harmes, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Alex Neal-Bullen, Dom Tyson

EMG: Jack Grimes, Mark Jamar, Aidan Riley

No change

BRISBANE LIONS

B: Justin Clarke, Daniel Merrett, Harris Andrews

HB: Daniel Rich, Marco Paparone, Sam Mayes

C: Dayne Zorko, Dayne Beams, Lewis Taylor

HF: Jack Redden, Daniel McStay, Allen Christensen

F: Stefan Martin, Brent Staker, Jed Adcock

Foll: Matthew Leuenberger, Tom Rockliff, Pearce Hanley

I/C: James Aish, Ryan Harwood, Nick Robertson, Mitch Robinson

EMG: Hugh Beasley, Rohan Bewick, Mitch Golby

IN: Ryan Harwood, Stefan Martin, Mitch Robinson

OUT: Rohan Bewick (omitted), Jordon Bourke (omitted), Darcy Gardiner (shoulder)

Let's face it.

Melbourne was poor last week when it was expected to beat Essendon with ease given the Bombers' capitulation to St Kilda by 110 points a week earlier. The Demons could have won but the excuse was poor kicking for goal which was in fact the case but the game should never have been close had they taken advantage of the early ruck dominance of Max Gawn. It's a mystery how, despite the enormous advantage in clearances at centre bounces and the other stoppages, that the scores were locked at 1.3 apiece at quarter time. That came before the really woeful kicking for goal that transpired later.

This week's opponent has been hit hard by injury but observers would have probably noted that as the date for their game against Melbourne approached, there were some sudden and dramatic changes happening. The Lions form rose from ordinary to respectable as a number of their key players have begun turning. A win on the MCG would have been virtually unthinkable a month or so ago, but now it's on the cards.

In their past three games, they have extended Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney for three quarters. With their midfield building up to close to their best, they will threaten the Dees even on their home turf. They have Tom Rockliff back and in form and Pearce Hanley is ready to provide the run and carry they have lacked for most of the season. The Demons will be relying on Nathan Jones and Bernie Vince to provide the drive and movement forward to nullify them. Hopefully, the youth around them will add to the blend of hard work and running necessary to bring home the four points.

Melbourne - just.