Selection speculation

[Courtney_Fish 183]

I'm trying to get an idea of what the team will look like next year. Among the people fortunate enough to have watched the team train (and others if they would like), would anyone please rate each players as:

1=a selection certainty

2= probable

3=possible

4=unlikely

5=no way

Here's a list you can paste in. I haven't included the rookies or Westrupp but you can include them if you want. Very appreciated.

BAIL, Rohan
BARRY, Dom
BLEASE, Sam
BYRNES, Shannon
CLARK, Mitch
CLISBY, Mitch
CROSS, Daniel
DAWES, Chris
DUNN, Lyndon
EVANS, Michael
FITZPATRICK, Jack
FRAWLEY, James
GARLAND, Colin
GAWN, Max
GRIMES, Jack
HOGAN, Jesse
HOWE, Jeremy
HUNT, Jayden
JAMAR, Mark
JONES, Matt
JONES, Nathan
KENNEDY-HARRIS, Jay
KENT, Dean
McDONALD, Tom
McKENZIE, Jordie
MICHIE, Viv
NICHOLSON, Daniel
PEDERSON, Cam
RILEY, Aidan
SALEM, Christian
SPENCER, Jake
STRAUSS, James
TAPSCOTT, Luke
TERLICH, Dean
TOUMPAS, Jimmy
TRENGOVE, Jack
TYSON, Dom
VINCE, Bernie
VINEY, Jack
WATTS, Jack

PS Is it just me that gets the ads for Asian women?

Edited December 13, 2013 by Courtney_Fish

[Undeeterred 3,045]

I'm trying to get an idea of what the team will look like next year. Among the people fortunate enough to have watched the team train (and others if they would like), would anyone please rate each players as:

1=a selection certainty

2= probable

3=possible

4=unlikely

5=no way

Here's a list you can paste in. I haven't included the rookies or Westrupp but you can include them if you want. Very appreciated.

4 - BAIL, Rohan

4 - BARRY, Dom

3 - BLEASE, Sam

2 - BYRNES, Shannon

1 - CLARK, Mitch

1 - CLISBY, Mitch

1 - CROSS, Daniel

1 - DAWES, Chris

1 - DUNN, Lyndon

2 - EVANS, Michael

2 - FIZPATRICK, Jack

1 - FRAWLEY, James

1 - GARLAND, Colin

3 - GAWN, Max

1 - GRIMES, Jack

1 - HOGAN, Jesse

1 - HOWE, Jeremy

5 - HUNT, Jayden

2 - JAMAR, Mark

3 - JONES, Matt

1 - JONES, Nathan

4 - KENNEDY-HARRIS, Jay

2 - KENT, Dean

1 - McDONALD, Tom

1 - McKENCIE, Jordie

2 - MICHIE, Viv

3 - NICHOLSON, Daniel

4 - PEDERSON, Cam

4 - RILEY, Aidan

3 - SALEM, Christian

3 - SPENCER, Jake

4 - STRAUSS, James

3 - TAPSCOTT, Luke

2 - TERLICH, Dean

1 - TOUMPAS, Jimmy

1 - TRENGOVE, Jack

1 - TYSON, Dom

1 - VINCE, Bernie

1 - VINEY, Jack

1 - WATTS, Jack

PS Is it just me that gets the ads for Asian women?

Good one! My answers in the quote.

I've assumed full fitness and haven't thought about balance at all (maybe should...) .

I have 19 1s - although I looking back I haven't included a first ruck as a definite because I think that's right up in the air. Obviously, one of them will get a gig!

[DeeSpencer 24,804]

Question? Are you talking about round 1 or the best 22 likely to play the majority of the season?

Certainties: (14) Clark, Hogan, Frawley, Garland, Grimes, Vince, N. Jones, Howe, McDonald, Viney, Watts, Trengove, Cross, Tyson

Probables: (9) Dawes (inj), Dunn, Clisby, Terlich, M. Jones, Toumpas (Firming), Evans, Michie, McKenzie

Possibles: (10) Fitzpatrick, Jamar, Spencer, Gawn, Strauss, Tapscott, Kent (inj), Byrnes, Blease, Pedersen

Unlikely: (6) Nicholson, Bail, Salem, JKH, Barry, Riley (inj), Hunt

Round 1 team will likely come from the certainties, plus most of the probables plus one or two from the possibles. I've list all 3 primary rucks as possible as that's what they are. I'm yet to get a read on any discernible difference in training or if Roos has a preference. A lot depends on Clark and/or Fitzpatrick proving capable back ups because then it's 3 guys in to one spot and hence none are better than possible. I've got no doubt the coaches will like Jamar's experience, Spencer's hard competitive edge and Gawn's natural ability to mark, link up and be of use around the ground.

1 or even 2 of Dunn, Clisby and Terlich make way from the final 22 but right now that's a battle for the last couple of defensive spots and the same goes with a decent crop fighting for the last few midfield spots or small forward/rotating mid. That's Toumpas, McKenzie, Michie, Evans, M. Jones, Byrnes, Blease all for a couple of spots. Toumpas has looked great on track but I don't want to set the bar too high.

Alternatively I think Roos and co will push through with Tyson (for development), Watts and Cross almost regardless of immediate form. It's 3 guys who they'll be super keen to see do well and will have patience on keeping in the side.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,331]

Question? Are you talking about round 1 or the best 22 likely to play the majority of the season?

Certainties: (14) Clark, Hogan, Frawley, Garland, Grimes, Vince, N. Jones, Howe, McDonald, Viney, Watts, Trengove, Cross, Tyson

Probables: (9) Dawes (inj), Dunn, Clisby, Terlich, M. Jones, Toumpas (Firming), Evans, Michie, McKenzie

Possibles: (10) Fitzpatrick, Jamar, Spencer, Gawn, Strauss, Tapscott, Kent (inj), Byrnes, Blease, Pedersen

Unlikely: (6) Nicholson, Bail, Salem, JKH, Barry, Riley (inj), Hunt

Round 1 team will likely come from the certainties, plus most of the probables plus one or two from the possibles. I've list all 3 primary rucks as possible as that's what they are. I'm yet to get a read on any discernible difference in training or if Roos has a preference. A lot depends on Clark and/or Fitzpatrick proving capable back ups because then it's 3 guys in to one spot and hence none are better than possible. I've got no doubt the coaches will like Jamar's experience, Spencer's hard competitive edge and Gawn's natural ability to mark, link up and be of use around the ground.

1 or even 2 of Dunn, Clisby and Terlich make way from the final 22 but right now that's a battle for the last couple of defensive spots and the same goes with a decent crop fighting for the last few midfield spots or small forward/rotating mid. That's Toumpas, McKenzie, Michie, Evans, M. Jones, Byrnes, Blease all for a couple of spots. Toumpas has looked great on track but I don't want to set the bar too high.

Alternatively I think Roos and co will push through with Tyson (for development), Watts and Cross almost regardless of immediate form. It's 3 guys who they'll be super keen to see do well and will have patience on keeping in the side.

You have not included one recognised ruckman in your Certainties and Probables list. We need Jamar or Gawn to come into the equation. i would list both as probables. With one of them (depending on pre season form) being classified as a Certainty.

[Courtney_Fish 183]

Question? Are you talking about round 1 or the best 22 likely to play the majority of the season?

The last couple of years I have turned up and I look at our team and wonder "Who are these guys?". We used to have our regular heroes that we saw every week. I'd know how they played and didn't need to check the number on their back to see who they were. But there seems to have been a huge turnover of players. I read the training reports and I get the feeling that nearly all are really good - but for some guys that might mean they will always be selected while for others that means they may have a chance. I think the grading I asked for will put things in perspective at least for me. So I'm not asking who will be selected for the 1st match and not asking who are our best 22. I'm asking who will be our mainstay and who will be the next level. The top level might be say 8 players or 15 players.

[Courtney_Fish 183]

You have not included one recognised ruckman in your Certainties and Probables list. We need Jamar or Gawn to come into the equation. i would list both as probables. With one of them (depending on pre season form) being classified as a Certainty.

We know there will be 1 or more ruckmen every week but that does not mean that any one of the ruckmen on the list has to be a certain selection.

[Courtney_Fish 183]

Good one! My answers in the quote.

I've assumed full fitness and haven't thought about balance at all (maybe should...) .

I have 19 1s - although I looking back I haven't included a first ruck as a definite because I think that's right up in the air. Obviously, one of them will get a gig!

19 1s seems a bit many - optomistic. That means if all of them were fit only 3 positions would be up for grabs.

I like Hogan, Clarke & Dawes with Fitzpatrick a probable so Fitz can give the others a break and give a ruckman a break too. I'm a bit surprised that Hogan is rated a certainty. That means if he's fit he's selected and that's rare for a 1st year player. He must be pretty impressive. Somebody said that he's 101 Kgs now. That's about where the Ox was toward the end of his career - but the Ox was a lot less when he was Hogan's age.

You gave Kennedy-Harris a 4. Ok, that clarifies things a bit. From the training reports I got the impression he was just about worth a 1st round pick.

Dunne a 1? I luv him but I wouldn't give him a certainty, though I reckon he's a great one for the bench because he's so versatile.

[CBDees 3,165]

Personally I would be disappoinyed if either JHK or Barry were not afforded a chance. We should try something out of left field [which is why we drafted them in the firsy place]!