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  1. AFL clubs are full of short-term thinkers – with coaches, recruiters and list managers all wanting to win next year in order to keep their jobs. As a result, and because clubs fall often fall in love with the next year’s young talent and make moves to jump up the draft board, the interest rate for future AFL draft picks is over 20% p.a. and can be as high as 100% p.a. Typically the cost to buy a current first round pick is at least a current second round pick plus a future first round pick to. (The Suns swapped #27 for a future #11 as an example of how expensive it can be!) With the interest rate being so high (and the power of compound interest) I think it would be possible for an AFL club to delay first round picks for two consecutive years so as to build a bank of draft capital and then utilise two first round picks every year into perpetuity. That seems like a good investment for an AFL club, where the aim is to win as many flags as possible over the long run. (That’s what I want anyway.) It is also pretty clear that very few first year players are capable of playing in an AFL finals team. How many 19-year old draftees could you see playing in the grand final? (Not even the number 1 pick was selected for GWS in the preliminary final!) From the 2022 draft only Ashcroft, Sheezel, Fletcher and Phillipou would definitely get a game in a final and maybe Humphry and Wardlaw. That’s it, with only Ashcroft and Sheezel really being capable of making a difference in the result. Given our significant draft capital due to Jackson leaving and the fact that our current best 22 has very few holes going into 2024, I think we should be rotating most of our 2023 draft capital into 2024 picks. Look at the deal GCS are making for #4, which is mooted to be worth picks #10, #17 and a future first-rounder (with a third-rounder coming back to the Dogs from the Suns). This would be an incredible deal for the Suns and if we were to make similar deals, we could hold as many as four first round picks in 2024. With this in the bank, we would have the ability to spend two first round picks every year into perpetuity while maintaining our draft capital in future years. I call this the Macquarie model. I also believe that trades are usually the best use of draft capital, as they tend to favour the team receiving uncontracted players and because trades can better fill holes in the side. Essentially uncontracted players generally cost 80 cents on the dollar in terms of their value in picks. They also supply players who are ready to help win a final next year. This is even more so the case given the impact of free agency. The other thing is that the AFL draft is still quite inefficient (although recruiting has improved over the years). This is because you are selecting 18 year olds who have never played against men. Good recruiting teams, like Melbourne’s and Geelong’s, have proven they can find AFL talent with second/third/fourth round picks or rookie selections. While not using first round picks at the draft will impact the quality of a team’s young talent in the short term, I am no sure it really matters to winning next year.
  2. With the training for clubs about to go up to groups of 10, would you: Train in line groups (forwards, backs, midfielders) Train in groupings (3 forwards, 4 mids, 3 backs) Or something else?? Considering our two greatest needs will be connection between lines (especially Mids to the forwards) and cohesion in line groups, I would suggest we probably need a mix of both. Are we allowed to mix and match?
  3. People talk about "game plans". I would really like to understand each club's game plan in just 4 or 5 bullet points. We could start with our own and then address the others alphabetically.
  4. Not certain of the long term strategy but I know the short term strategy revolves around giant piles of gold doubloons... http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/tigers-ditch-darwin-20111020-1mafv.html
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