Dee Zephyr

Petracca is about to race in the first at Darwin, showing $13. I'd rather watch the Christian version run around.

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I always wanted to name a horse, "Beyond the Pale"      as in there is life beyond the feed bucket and/or this is too much to bear !

...and Gailo Chop salutes....well picked me...!

Strong win Wadda. Now for the rest of the "Best".

7 minutes ago, binman said:

Its funny, there always seems to be one or two horses that makes up ground on leaders tracks. Like Seberate (at 15-1) who i backed in the last. I reckon some horse like having 2 or 3 to chase and relax into it.

The problem comes lining that form up next time and i reckon many tipsters over rate how good the run was ('made ground against the pattern' blah blah blah). Leaders tracks are a real issue, particularly at Caulfield. Some horse simply don't have chance either because they miss the kick, have poor luck in running or are natural swoopers and don't like racing on speed. 

The problem for me is i do my form and we put all of our bets on a the start of the day so if i guess it is going to be really leaderish and i'm wrong i'm in trouble. Also by the end of the day it oftens evens up (which i take into account) but not always!

It took me a while to learn. I was one of those early days where I would follow a horse based on a horse absolutely flying home for a close up fourth or fifth in its last run. Those runs actually take a lot out of a horse and what looks like a "good thing" next start, would amount to the opposite. 

4 minutes ago, binman said:

Looks like i'm right that the track is a bit leadrish. 

I have always thought Punter's Lament would be a great name for a horse. I have had my fist punters lament for the carnival already. Hayes has dome brillinatly with 2 years olds in the filast 2-3 years and i had planned to back his horses in race 2 and 3. Late change of mind say me just do so in the 3rd race and going with Pure elation instead in the second. Annoying to see Enbihaar win at 10s and then my two outsiders get back and have no chance in the next.

Looks like the track is playing like that at the moment, although your first selection in Goldstream made up a lot of ground from last. 

Classic, I'll tell my mate to name his next horse "Punters Lament".

We're up and running, terrific finish to the first at Caulfield. 

Show A Star into $2.00 after the scratchings. Only 5 running.

I believe the gut detox plan I went through has worked to some extent, mind you, it's lasted 6 months.

Looking back through last year and not just the finale of it, many MFC supporters would head home just as spent as the players after games.

There were numerous times (too many in fact) we experienced emotions (anger, fear, disgust, happiness) in the one game.

Out of all our wins, it was only the one game (Bulldogs) where we controlled the match from start to finish. 

Some don't like to dwell on the past, that's fine, but it's still fresh for some and that's fine too.

One thing is for certain though, it's the fact MFC supporter stomachs have been seasoned for a very long time. 

Enjoy " The calm before the storm" and what's one more season hey?

30 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Would be very long odds to do that 3 times in a row.......lets hope he salutes!

Question without notice....Is Egyptian Symbol any relation to Egyptian Ruler?

Lol, any win is a good win, the last leg is Race 8 No.9 - True Excelsior. $2.80 was its fixed price in the multi. 

Not sure about your question, I might have to look it up.

So.... a fella at work gave me his 3 "Best Bets" at the Valley tonight. 

I quickly rushed to put the multi on at $24.

Leg 1 - Race 3 No.1-Despatch. Result-Scratched at barrier.

Leg 2 - Race 5 No.9- Oscietra. Result- Scratched at barrier.

Unbeliavable!!

What are the odds for the same to happen in leg 3? 

10 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I was also tossing up between Show a Star and Gailo Chop. So i concur with your best bet  D77. Well spotted.

Ok so that leaves us with Egyptian Symbol, Show a Star and Gailo Chop.  Multi them up now and you get 19.27/1

Oh yeah, and ive never seen a race where the saddlecloth and barriers are the same D77? The odds against that would be astronomical. Maybe they finish the race in the same order?

Now that you mentioned it, i must place a tri and first four straight out in numerical order. It goes with the theme of this race.

Juicy odds again for the best bets combined and another selection could be added with Binman declaring his "Best".

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

'Show A Star' was the first horse I had picked out as my best bet D77! ... then superceded by 'Egyptian Symbol' but only just. 

I also had 'Nature Strip' picked out but was concerned about the hot favourite 'She Will Reign' ... in the end Nature Strip was scratched so my mind was made up.

I believe the horse above has a promising future. It's definitely a talented galloper and I'm sure it will be someone's "Best" very soon.

It was scratched due to a virus or some kind of blood infection. Hopefully it's not too serious and we'll see if it can return after its short break. 

In regards to Show A Star, I thought the 1 and the 2 were the obvious dangers but the weight difference was the determining factor towards Show A Star. 

My "Best" comes from Warwick Farm Race 8 No.4 - Show A Star.($2.60 Win)

First look at the track but his last run (win) was very good. Pushed hard from a wide barrier to lead the field up, kicked away on turning and fought off a few late swoopers. Big drop in the weights from last start will see him carry 53.5kg.

There are one or two in the field with early speed so it will be interesting to see if Tim Clark goes for the lead or if he'll be happy to take a sit just off the leaders. 

Currently it's only a 7 horse field, the $1.60 for the place might appeal to some that fancy the horse for a top 2 finish.

Happy Punting!

I was browsing the form for the following race and noticed that each horse has drawn the same barrier as their saddlecloth. I don't recall ever seeing that with a random barrier draw.

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/caulfield-20180210/schweppes-rubiton-stakes-race-6

Tricky race, does anyone think Rich Charm is a bit over the odds?

38 minutes ago, Macca said:

My 'Best Bet' ...

Warwick Farm Race 7 No.2 Egyptian Symbol to win (current fixed odds 3.40)

It's last start was the 973k Magic Millions Sprint over 1200m where it ran 3rd to the very class 'Viddora'  (1:08.69) 

Before that won well at Rosehill on a Heavy 8.  Meets this lot with SW + P's in a small field.  The jockey's record on the horse is good as well.  

Lol Macca, I've only looked briefly at the Warwick Farm races and Egyptian Symbol is the one that stood out to me also. 

I also like Brave Song in R6 but it's up against Kementari. Kementari's form was very good prior to its Coolmore run back in the spring.

Not sure if I want to declare Brave Song as my "Best" yet. I will do some more studying when I get home later.

43 minutes ago, Docs Demons said:

Old Bergo must have gone missing as no reports since last Fridays session . I assume he went back to Melbourne for Women's game. They certainly do not want to keep supporters up to date. Hope a few attend tomorrows training and can report as nothing coming from club.

Found this....

http://m.melbournefc.com.au/video/2018-02-06/preseason-camp-masterchef

And this.....

http://m.melbournefc.com.au/video/2018-02-04/inside-melbourne-nibblers-vlog

1 hour ago, Basher said:

What odds Jesse Hogan for the Coleman. I had $50 on him at 30 to one last year and we know what a year he had. My mother always used to call me a mug punter.

He's only paying $9 to win it. Fourth line of betting behind Kennedy, Franklin and Daniher. 

We would all like to see him kick bags every week but as ET stated probably not a good bet as all the talk is Jesse playing further up the ground. 

Yes, only if the umpires are allowed to  throw flags all over the field to indicate a penalty.

20 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

From the trainer: Ace High will go to the Hobartville stakes next then the Randwick Guineas and The Rosehill Guineas. We then decide whether to run him in the (Australian) Derby or the Queen Elizabeth Stakes there are a week apart so I don’t think we would run in both if Winks isn’t running in the Queen Elizabeth then we will target that but otherwise it will be the Derby.

Thanks Wadda.

It was a terrific return for Ace High I thought. I see he's in the 4th line of betting for the Chipping Norton at $26 behind Winx of course but from the above I'm not tempted to have an early go at those odds.

Hawks and Tigers played an AFLX practice match today. Seems like small and quick is the way from this short video.

http://m.afl.com.au/video/2018-02-03/hawks-and-tigers-play-aflx-practice-match

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

OK, yes i realize about the odds, its tricky though sometimes, you have to watch them (TAB). Although they can be good. I remember i lost a ticket once, quaddie over 2k win. They looked up the time i put it on and found it on the system, took a little while but i got paid in the end.

Wow, don't be losing those tickets Wadda, glad they came to the party though.

The only time they have been good to me is when I scanned a losing ticket just for the hell of it on the EBT one day and to my surpise it made that nice sound of " you have credit", it wasn't a huge amount but satisfying nonetheless.

24 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Really wow...haha good work! Yes well footy is pretty boring this time of year, so good on us.

So now im still not 100% sure. If i place a 4 leg multi on the TAB on say Thursday and come Saturday 1 leg is scratched, does that ticket pay out?

Yes, it will pay out if your remaining selections win. Not at the original odds though.

By the way, we have ignited this thread, it's listed as "Hot" in the topic listing. Awesome work fellas.

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Really...oh thats good, because i always thought if you had put on an early multi and there was a scratching, the multi didnt pay out.

I placed the multi with Neds, thats how they work. Maybe you're right in regards to the Tab, I'm not sure how the Tab works

6 minutes ago, Macca said:

I've always thought that there is a lot of 'knowledge' about that us mug punters never hear about.  There is no sure-fire system but I like to eliminate a lot of the doubt involved.  The less doubt the better. 

And that's why I'm going to do 3 doubles within a 3 pick multi ... each way is probably not the way to go because of the negligible odds we're going to get for the place for any of these best bets. 

Same for a 4 leg multi (4 trio's within that 4 pick) ... again,  that's my way as I can't see any of us finding a best bet that is good each way value.  Unless we do of course and then the place dividend does comes into it. 

That way you don't have to worry too much about cashing out as you've already picked up at least 1 'Double' within a 3 pick multi.  Or a trio in a 4 pick multi. 

Spot on Macca, I thought about that after having trouble mucking around with the Tab app for each way multis. I couldn't find a way to do them on fixed odds.

10 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

So if there is a scratching in the multi, does it just miss that leg and carry over?

That leg is completely taken out (odds for the scratched horse deducted) instead of having odds of $126 for the four legs, i now have the combined odds for the remaining 3 runners.