Dee Zephyr

Supporting them!!!

2 hours ago, binman said:

Best bet Randwick Race 4  no 2 Deploy 

Bets value Randwick Race 8 no 1 Frolic

Best longshot (or each way if you prefer) Flemington Race 6  no 5 Rimraam

Nice pick Binman, it got smashed late in the betting.

Best longshot.

Flem Race 9 No.1 He's Our Rokkii.

3 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Superstar. Damn in the mad rush at the TAB i forgot to get on. Well done D77

Sheesh, it won well, they told me it was primed for a first-up run but that was impressive. Hopefully for my mate, it guides them towards the Golden Slipper. 

Spewing you missed it Wadda, I had a small each way bet on it.

37 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Worth a look for sure, and perhaps a quinella there.. Im also interested in Paris Rock Flemington R6. $4.20 atm. Undefeated in its 3 runs so far comes up against Aloisia which i also toyed with as a best bet. Ill be putting a quinella on for these two as well.

Definite chance in my opinion, up in class but looks a promising galloper. 

Santos up in 5 mins.

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Im a bit pressed for time this morning, what time is the first selection starting?

Are you still celebrating last nights triumph Wadda??

3.01pm for the first leg.

It would be interesting to hear thoughts from anyone else that attended the games.

Took the kids for a night out and it was an enjoyable evening for most part. The sideshow grew tiresome though.

There were a lot things going on during the games but it was good to see some of our boys around and add some cardboardware to the cabinet.

The clash strip was pleasing to the eye, looks like a winner. 

We are running out of words to describe Jetta. The games tonight were really quick and his ability to read the play before an opponent even disposed of the ball was just incredible. Absolute marvel.

2 hours ago, Macca said:

2 Best bets so far ...

Flemington  Race 7  No.1  Cliff's Edge  $6.00

Morphettville  Race 4  No.2   Stellar Collision $2.70

So it's over to @Demon77 & @binman  for their expertise. 

Best Bet.

Randwick Race 8 No. 3 Alizee $1.80.

I struggled to find anything at longer odds. Alizee is definitely a class above her rivals and is well weighted. She trialled well recently and I believe she will be hard to beat. 

It's probably a bit silly not to declare Redzel as my "Best" as the horse is the same odds as Alizee but my record with straight races isn't very good.

Edit: Sorry Macca, quoted you by mistake.

Woo Hoo, we could fit another 12 blokes  in this team!!!

 Can't believe it!

Our first grand final in 17 years and they won't let me back in the stadium cause I pinched a zooper dooper from the kid behind me.

If anyone's thinking of making a late trip down to Etihad, there are plenty of bean bags available behind the goals at the Lockett end.

They might even provide a stable table for your Hot Dog and Chips!!!

BTW, ANB is the only player I've seen on the ground so far ( for those remotely interested).

9 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Nice pick Macca. Im struggling to find anything yet, but ill keep looking. I dont really know a lot of horses at Randwick and Flemington this weekend.

Same here Wadda, the Flemington card is not appealing at the moment. 

Santos is in race 2 at Randwick. Currently a $5 chance.

Although it's a very strong 2yr old race with the main two players being Irish Bet (1) and Legend of Condor (2) the horse is well and truly ready to go.

That's the latest on the horse for anyone that decides this race is worth a flutter. 

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/randwick-20180217/the-luxury-network-pierro-plate-race-2

25 minutes ago, Macca said:

Being a punter who prefers to outlay small amounts for a reasonable return I'm looking at using our Best bets in various ways (with the end result being a series of 3 pick multi's)

Up until now I've usually been a trifecta/first4 punter but I'll give the best bet multi system a go for now and save my trifecta combo's for Sha Tin (there are 4 x 1400m races listed for next Sunday - ideal)

As for Flemington,  Randwick et al ... the fields,  form and barriers should be up on Racenet.com by tomorrow night so I'll be getting an early start as usual!

Yes Macca, I'll be having a keen look early as well. 

Santos is nominated at Randwick in the Pierro Plate. Will know by tomorrow either way but my mate tells me they should accept. That race will be a difficult one to pick. First starters and a few with one or two starts max.

I'm only interested to see how Santos races but in saying that, one of the horses nominated (Irish Bet) won a $500,000 race in its only start back in December. 

29 minutes ago, Macca said:

I do like the idea of an each-way special as well D77 ... your other thoughts are very good too.  I will be looking for some other top fancies to couple up with 1, 2 or 3 of our best bets so I suppose we shouldn't be thinking of any restrictions. 

I also like the idea of looking outside of Melboune & Sydney.  For instance,  any of the better Hayes horses running at Morphettville are always worth keeping an eye on.  2 of the Hayes horses won at short odds on Saturday (2.30 & 2.45) but those odds are not prohibitive in a multi. 

In fact 5 short priced favourites won in Adelaide but apart from Itz Invincible the other 4 started at 2.30,  2.40.  3.00 & 3.60.  The last 4 winners at the Gold Coast on Saturday were short priced favourites as well (2.10,  2.60,  2.70 & 2.80)

Back in the day those odds weren't much value to punters but not necessarily these days with multi-betting across the various race meetings. 

And by the way ... are any of the other horses going to be able to get anywhere near Redzel in the Lightning Stakes? 

It will take something special to beat Redzel. 

I thought our input worked well last weekend with four of us but I do agree with your earlier point of too many selections. It does become a little unworkable. 

So far it is working really well, I just need to collect once. ?

1 hour ago, Macca said:

@binman  @Wadda We Sing  @Demon77

Some more thoughts on the format of our best bets

Is 3 the right number or 4? 

I'm leaning towards 4 although we could make it 3 and then limit it to 3 on a first in,  best dressed basis.

The same rule could be had if we want to limit it to 4 (which is my preferred maximum)  Again,  first in,  best dressed and once we have 4 best bets that's it for the weekend. 

Or we could leave it open for more picks ... of course if we end up with 5 or more best bets which one's get prioritised? 

In summary ... I'm happy to go with 3 or 4 but any more than that becomes a bit unworkable in my eyes. 

I'm happy with a maximum of 4 Macca for the best bets although I'm open to more members joining the fun. 

 The various thoughts on weekend racing makes me look a little deeper into races that I might have skipped in the past. 

After @binman put his selections through it made me have a look at 'Itz Invincible' and I liked it. 

If two horses stand out to someone and one of them is at decent odds maybe the member can declare a second horse as an  "Each Way" special. 

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

That sounds really good Macca. I like your thinking here. Aflw demons are red hot for taking out the series at 3/1. A lot of people think they can do it too. Plus the price won't change because of late scratchings! I've actually always kinda tried that by throwing in a soccer game and a couple of horses. Trouble is a lot of fav soccer teams like stupid MV lose when they are supposed to win and there is also the draw factor. Maybe d77 can explain the soccer,  because I can't. So I prefer an afl match when available. I think this is now an interesting strategy.

Also along the lines of afl matches whenavailable I do like the under or over 39.5 points selection. You get better odds also. Its often not so hard to pick.

Nail on head Wadda! 

I rarely ever throw a soccer leg in a multi mixed with other sports. The double chance option ( win/draw) maybe, even then the odds are too short.

My soccer multis are basically over 2.5 goals each game. High scoring leagues such as the Dutch league, I often throw a 6-8 leg over 2.5 goals multi and hope for the best. I'm finding head to head soccer multis extremely difficult. For example a team placed 6th in League 1 of England was playing the bottom placed team at home. The odds for the 6th placed team was $2.00 and automatically you think that's great odds, they should win yeah, but then you stop and ask yourself,  what do the bookies know that I don't?  This team should be $1.50-$1.70. Long story short, the result 2-2. Multi gone.

Listened to the review of the Caulfield races on RSN this morning.

A few points that stood out:

The wind ( often a problem at Caulfield) became an issue as the day progressed.

Gailo Chop set for the Australian Cup and might be hard to toss.

Smart Coupe put in a terrific run after missing the start ( unusual for this horse), the start cost it 3-4 lengths and there's a win in the Carnival for the horse.

Merchant Navy ran the fastest 800m, 600m and 400m of the day and along with Rich Charm could be the big players in the upcoming Newmarket.

The C.F.Orr is hard to assess due to the slow running of the race. 

Lord Of The Sky missed the start and cost the race the expected speed. The horse eventually worked up to the pace and was wider than Tosen Stardom at stages and only tired the last 50m. Keep an eye out in future runs.

Just about every horse other than the winner had a hard luck story. It was stated to assess this race as a barrier trial for some of the first-up horses and look at their next run as first-up.

Single Gaze was two lengths in front of  the field 50m past the post and stated to note it as a black booker. Brave Smash also a terrific run after a first-up flop.

A few clubs have confirmed some of their starters according to the AFL site. This was our write-up.

Christian Petracca: His ability to win the football in tight, burst out into space and finish long-range running goals would translate nicely into AFLX.

Definite starters: The Demons have not yet picked their squad ahead of next Friday night, but Petracca, Alex Neal-Bullen, Tom Bugg and James Harmes would benefit from a fast-paced game.

Definite outs: Jeff Garlett, Simon Goodwin, Pat McKenna, Joel Smith, Aaron vandenBerg, Jack Viney, Sam Weideman 

- Ben Guthrie

1 minute ago, Macca said:

Just for a bit of future historical purposes I'm going to try and post up the replays of the Group 1 Races (both here & overseas) Those new to the thread can peruse through and watch some replays of some great Group racing whilst the resident posters can scroll back whenever we wish to do so. 

We'll start things off with yesterday's C F Orr Stakes (2018) ...

 

Hi Macca, some terrific runs in there, Brave Smash, Single Gaze to a name a couple.

All credit to the champ in Hartnell though. Awesome effort, just pure guts to get the nose in front.

I missed out on my multi, I didn't do the 3 out of 4 like you did, just all 4 to win. That's two weeks in a row now, I think I've learned the lesson.

Its been positive though, with 4 of us gathering our thoughts. Egyptian Symbol looked like the winner coming around the turn but found one just too good on the day.

In regards to other online bookies, a lot of them offer better odds and all sorts of incentives to try and lure new punters or customers of other online agencies.

Every bookie except Tab will pay on the horse first past post regardless if that horse loses a protest. If the horse loses a protest they will pay out twice. That's one tool used to get a leg over the Tab.

16 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yes well thats also my question, does this apply to normal fixed odds 1 out bet?  Or, is does it just apply to multis? Im mean why have a fixed odds bet if its not fixed? Im sure ive had odds come in before and still been paid the original price on multis......or does it just apply to scratchings? Im totally confused.

Let me know how the sportsbet option pans out. How hard and how long it takes to sign up etc. Think im done with the TAB too. Its not the 20 bucks, its the principle.

I believe it only applies to scratchings Wadda.

If you place the single bet early and there are a few scratchings you will lose some of the original price. Say there are no scratchings the day before or in the morning prior to the race but there are one or two late scratchings at the barrier you might find a deduction on your bet if it wins, all depending on the price of those late scratchings.

You won't lose the original price on fixed if your horse is backed off the map and shortens in the market.

I totally agree with the principle, it wasn't the $5 I was worried about with my multi, I wanted to invest in bigger odds not a single bet. It's not my fault two of my selections decided they would join the rodeo whilst at the barriers.

11 minutes ago, Macca said:

I'm wondering if Sportsbet have the same sort of one-sided rules?  I joined up tonight just to see what they are like.  I've got a few mates that gave up on the TAB long ago ... they've gone to Sportsbet as well as Ladbrokes & William Hill etc. 

Because I only ever bet online I'm no longer rusted on to the TAB and after hearing your story & Wadda's story I'll probably be making the switch sooner rather than later.  I'm constantly being told that the odds are better elsewhere anyway. 

I closed my Tab account over a year ago, I had some issues with them leading up to the closure and at that stage I’d had enough. I only recently opened a Tab account under the wife’s name (with her permission of course) so I could utilise a new members bonus bet, plus their app is user friendly for live betting. I enjoy the soccer multis also and find it quicker on their app to place a live bet.

I haven’t used Sportsbet for a few years but they seem to be as popular as ever. 

26 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok, i have a complaint.

The multi i put on on Wednesday night, 3 legs, paying 81.00 or 8.10/1. Gailo Chop, Show a Star and Melbourne (w).

Multi salutes thanks to the gallant efforts of the Dees girls team. (maybe a start for 1 or 2 come the season beginning). I went to collect my 81.00 and low and behold it paid out 64.00!!

When i went to enquire across the bar at the said Pubtab, the tab representative said i should note the terms and conditions printed on the ticket which state, Refunds and Deductions Apply.

He said if there are scratchings it can change the payout price.

Well ive never heard of this before, and ive had more multis than a harem in ancient Greece!!

Ok well maybe not that many, but still. I beg the question, why bother putting a fixed odds multi on in advance at all if the odds are not fixed, it need to be clearly stated.

Rant over. Not happy.

Lol, I feel your pain Wadda but unfortunately that's the crap we have to put up with.

I stand to be corrected but I'm sure when fixed odds betting first came out there was no disclaimer (Refunds and Deductions Apply) printed on the tickets. They probably figured it was costing them too much.

While we are on a rant, the multi I placed last night at the Valley saw my first two legs scratched at the barrier leaving my 3 leg multi as a single win bet on a $2.80 pop.

Where was my refund? It ended up as a losing bet because the horse in my 3rd leg couldn't run out of sight in the dark. Under the circumstances a refund would have been appropriate. I placed a multi for the bigger odds, not to back a horse at $2.80 with my $5.

Rant over

The Dees were very impressive today in both offensive and defensive aspects of the game. Considering the windy conditions the skill level was actually above average for most part. 

Outnumbered the Crows in just about every contest and there were some very exciting passages of play. 

I thought Bianca Jakobsson was brilliant at intercepting today, nice skills too.

The Orr delivered a brilliant finish. Thoroughly enjoyed the race even though I was cheering Brave Smash home.

It's been fun today fellas, good luck for the rest of the day.