Macca

The way you've described it has probably always been the case but such is the transparency of how things are now, there does seem to be a formula that needs to be adhered to. Just about every position on a list will need to have a purpose - a club can't afford to have too many "hope for the best" types - it's just too risky. Our situation was always going to be a time related fix and we're still at least 2 off-seasons away from becoming a regular 10-12+ win club. To be better than that will require a number of factors to be in our favour - including luck. The FD has a different strategy to building the list than what we've seen previously and we'll see that strategy again in the trade and drafting period. Our list building has become far more creative. I'd still like the club to become more active with regards to free agency. I see free agency as a real way of bridging the gap - I don't expect anything to come our way in this off-season but next year should be a different matter.

Yet we at Melbourne did not want either club receiving a priority pick based on the fact we didn't get one. The bottom clubs squabbling amongst themselves is probably music to the AFL's ears. The AFL aren't going to do the right thing - they don't even know what the right thing is. They are most interested in making money and whilst that money keeps rolling in, we can't expect them to start becoming decent custodians. We need to do the best we can given what the rules of engagement are ... whilst I agree with many here and see the competition as a lopsided one moving forward, I can't see anything of a substantial nature changing in the near future. We need to continually make sound, intelligent and well thought out decisions ... and then hope for the best. The first major step is to somehow get to 10-12 wins - and then at least hold our ground.

Free agency is only 3 years old ... the sample size is nowhere near big enough to make overall absolute appraisals of how it's all going to work looking ahead. The path we go down as a sport with regards to free agency will end up mirroring other sports. Like always, many have been slow to embrace the concept including (in my opinion) the clubs themselves. Essendon have been a little aggressive but that may have a lot to do with the PED investigation. The Hawks have well and truly jumped on board but again, they seem to be the most aggressive. I reckon we'd all feel a lot differently if we had have already secured a few quality free agents. Of course, we've been hamstrung by the whole compo thing but we stuffed up our compo anyway in the 2012 off-season (notwithstanding turning that 3rd round compo pick into Kent) And a free agent doesn't have to be the quality of Dangerfield either - there are many free agents who could be secured who, whilst not being superstars, they would certainly improve a list like ours. But to get them you have to get in early - forget the rules, clubs talk to agents on a constant basis and it wouldn't be too difficult to put an "unofficial" offer to a would-be free agent.

As for the Hawks - they understand the parameters and the rules of engagement and conduct their activities accordingly. Rather than being envious, I see them as the benchmark that we can aspire to - we need to be aggressive and confident with our intentions. There's no reason why we can't build a great list ... as an example - if we had to give up a 1st round pick in next years draft to help secure a top player this season, why couldn't we offset that drafting loss by securing the services of 2 decent free agents at the end of next season? Having an average to fair list (as we have now) should always mean that we should have loads of salary cap space ... so, the bringing in of free agents should not come with any barriers. We'd probably need to make 2 "in principle" agreements with those free agents now (or perhaps, 6 months ago) but it's entirely do-able. That's the new footy landscape - we need to be way ahead of the game. Otherwise, we'll be also-rans. Forever reacting rather than being proactive.

More importantly, we would definitely be a better team if we'd traded a number of those picks for bona fide established talent (especially involving that 2009 draft) The bigger mistake was not who we picked in those drafts but how we managed those picks. Things have changed since then as we've seen Roos come in and trade our first rounder for Tyson & ultimately Salem ... he also traded our compo 2nd rounder for Vince with his first off-season with us. We also traded our normal 2nd round pick in the Tyson/Salem deal as well as getting a 1st round draft pick back with the same deal. Also, we did trade out another 1st round pick (#12) for Clark (which we subsequently turned into Lumumba) Effectively, pick 12 in the 2011 draft has become Lumumba. I understand that most already know all the above stuff but it's worth repeating when considering how our club is now going about it. I feel sure we had it in mind to do much the same last year but the Trengove trade fell through and the club then decided to go with Petracca & Brayshaw. So, it's been a bit of both so far but we could have easily traded both our 1st and 2nd round picks in Roos' first 2 off-seasons. Or at least nearly all of them - the compo pick for Frawley may well have been used on Petracca or Brayshaw. I'd expect us to do more of the same this off-season unless we can't get a decent enough deal done - so those eyeing off a young prospect with our pick 6 may need to do a re-think. Unless we land a big fish I can see the club swapping pick 6 for a player and pick 11-13 (or such like) I can also see the club hanging on to pick 6 and using it on a top prospect .... it can be either/or. .

Yep, the Steelers had a number of chances to at least pick up field goals but they either missed them or as we saw towards the end of the game, not even attempt one of those field goal opportunities. The game itself was close as usual but lacked the ferocity of previous encounters.

Any public holiday where I get to see an NFL game live is fine by me. These Ravens/Steelers match-ups are always good games too - they hate each other and it's a huge rivalry. The Ravens are lucky that Big Ben is out but Vick is still quite capable on his day. Ravens in a close one. .

Just a reminder that it's not too late to join in on the tipping comp ... Leaderboard 2 - JV7 1 - Gorgoroth, cowboy_from_hell titan_uranus, Georgiou R.R. Martin, Macca 0 - Others Week 4 games Week 4 for is for 1 point only but we have a bonus week coming up in week 5 (2 points) ... other bonus weeks are weeks 8, 10, 13, 15 & 17 Also, this week the Jets are the designated "away" team even though their game against Miami is being played in London. Previously we've allowed the designated away team (in London) to be allowed in your tips so unless anyone has any objections, we'll continue to allow it. My tips ... Panthers Packers Eagles

Points tally in the comp ... 2 - JV7 1 - Gorgoroth, cowboy_from_hell titan_uranus, Georgiou R.R. Martin, Macca 0 - Everyone else! No real surprises with the results although a lot of the games were difficult to call ... Indi were a little lucky to win, the Ravens & Saints are now staring down the barrel but Atlanta, Carolina, Arizona, Denver, Cincinnati, New England & the Bills have been very good. The Vikes have had 2 good wins as well. Don't know what to make of the 49ers and Detroit - Kaepernick is really struggling and Stafford labors when the heat is on. And can the Steelers win with Vick for 4-6 weeks? .

I wasn't tempted ... I'd rather wait till Monday to see my tips lose. It's tough enough trying to find home winners this week ... there's a whole bunch of games where I just can't find a standout winner. Seattle, New England and probably GB should win but that's about it - I like the Ravens at home too.

Frawley was on cruise control after the 2011 season - overall, his career at Melbourne was a fail considering his talent. In my eyes he'll remain our greatest disappointment in recent times ... he wasted his obvious talent with us but I'm happy to see the end of him in all honesty - he was of little value to us anyway. Many here were (or are) more frustrated with others but those others didn't (or don't) have Frawley's ability. However, the compensation we got for him is already working in our favour. Frawley finished 8th, 7th & 9th in our B&F in his last 3 years with us (2012. 2013 & 2014) ... for a person of his ability, those outcomes were unacceptable. In those same 3 years Nathan Jones went 1st, 1st and 1st. Terlich and Matt Jones finished 3rd & 4th respectively in the 2013 B&F. He might get a flag with the Hawks but he gave us SFA, all things considered. Footnote: The B&F is a great guide - Flower only got 1 B&F award but was 2nd four times and 3rd twice (plus, he also got a 4th and a 5th placing)

There's a few iconic teams represented by the looks of it ... St Louis, Yankees, Dodgers & Cubs. Would like to see the Mets and the Royals do well but even though I'm a Redsox fan, I lean towards the Cardinals as well because of their storied history. They've had another very good season and they might just pick up their 12th World Series title. I suppose I just like playoff baseball so will catch up with as many games as possible. Your Blue Jays might win the American League to reach the World Series but it's wide open in the AL.

Tipping comp leaderboard 1 - JV7 0 - Everyone else Week 3 games Tips ... (another tough week) Colts Atlanta Buffalo

Jets win! Not sure whether the story is the Jets winning or the Colts losing ... Indi have started 0-2 but they haven't played a divisional rival yet ... Tennessee might be tougher opposition with Mariota and Houston are good on their day - all the same, to only score 7 points at home in a game like this is a very poor return. As for the Jets, their defense played a big game and they might prove hard to beat if they can maintain that part of their game ... next 3 - vs Philadelphia, @ Miami, vs Washington - all winnable.

Detroit have been dealt a tougher schedule and it looks like it may be too much for them ... if they lose to Denver this week then it might be all over for them. They then have to go to Seattle in week 4. So much depends on these early games ... a season can be over very quickly unless a team can at least break even - as an example, the Giants could easily be 2 & 0 but are now 0 & 2 and staring down the barrel. The Ravens are another team who already desperately need a win. It might be a year with a lot of upsets as there's any number of teams who are capable on their day. I see AP had a big day today and Bridgewater's completion percentage was very good. Division wins are always good value - anytime.

GRRM got 2 and missed on the Ravens (like most of us) Interesting that 3 of the 6 road winners this week won their division last year whilst Arizona went 11/5 last year and may have won the NFC West but for the injury to Palmer. Atlanta with Ryan are always capable. Some of the pundits are saying that Romo might miss up to 10 games so if your Eagles can string a few wins together, the division can be won with a low win count. The Giants are not a good team and Washington aren't much chop either. We might see a repeat of 2011 when 9 wins won the NFC East ... even 8 wins might get it done. Dallas have a tough schedule and without Romo & Bryant, every win they get will be hard earned.

Dallas, Denver, Arizona, Atlanta & New England all won on the road ... isn't hindsight a wonderful thing JV7 Granted, picking Tampa was never a logical option. But you're right, luck does play a big part and if a team gets lucky, that can build confidence. Just like losing, winning becomes a habit. The Falcons now have a quite winnable game @ the Cowboys next week whereas 2 weeks ago, the same game could have been marked down as a probable loss. Add to that the Saints poor start but the Panthers are still the team to watch out for - when Newton is on, they're hard to beat.

I thought the Seahawks were playing very well and a big chance but that early 4th quarter drive led by Rodgers turned the game on it's head ... quelling Lynch was key although Wilson made a lot of good yards with his legs. Starks the RB was the difference though ... once Lacy was injured he had to step up and he duly did so - 20 carries for 95 yards. It's just nice to beat a team like Seattle though - they'll still be very hard to beat anytime (especially at home) The big news though is the broken collarbone to Romo (twice in the same spot now?) ... Dallas have a tough schedule and they'll really miss him - it could be 8+ weeks. However, can Dallas' rivals take advantage? Some big wins (Steelers, Arizona) but equally, some big losses (Saints, Ravens & Miami) The Vikings get on the board but unless the Lions get a win shortly, their season could be over very quickly - next 3 .. vs Denver, @ Seattle & vs Arizona. Atlanta had an important win helped by more clock mismanagement by the Giants ... Rams were disappointing by the looks of it but so were the niners. And true to form, no one picked 3 road winners in the comp - a few went 0 for 3 - yikes!

As usual, it's the All Blacks World Cup to lose TD... they're normally nominal favourites. But anything can happen on the day as the Kiwi's have often found out. Our group is the toughest by the looks of it but we'll probably just need to win at least one of the games against England & Wales to progress. (providing we also defeat Fiji & Uruguay) I'd expect us to get through alright. The QF's is where the real action starts though - avoiding the All Blacks is of paramount importance so the winning of the group really matters ... the Wallabies are in group A so can only possibly meet the All Blacks (group C) in a semi-final (depending on results and group placings)

Japan cause one of the greatest World cup upsets in history by defeating South Africa ... only recorded the France/Italy game thinking that would be the game to watch overnight ... wrong! However, the Springboks remaining 3 games are against Samoa, Scotland & the USA - they still should progress. Highlights of the match ...

And back then, with the Swans having a much much better list, Terlich was more expendable. I don't mind having a few hard-at-it types as back up depth. Just about every club keeps at least 4 or 5 NQR types because they have no other choice ... there's just not that many 'AFL ready' players in the system. Getting rid of 10 players will almost certainly not mean those 10 players will be replaced by another 10 good players ... it doesn't work that way when a number of the replacements (recruits) are speculative picks. However, in the last 2 off-seasons, we're getting more hits than misses than in many of our previous off-seasons. Our strike rate is improving and we need to keep trending that way to build a good list.

And KC lose a game they could have won ... the impact of 1 loss in a 16 game season can be quite profound (especially when it comes to losing at home in a divisional game) Everything can be a risk ... even running the ball in the last 30 odd seconds when a team is nowhere near it's end zone in a tied game. Kneeling down was not such a no-brainer but would a team not kneel down if the same circumstances were in a Super Bowl? Reid has always had the odd issue with time management ... however, he brings a lot of positives too - which includes his teams participating in the playoffs on an almost constant basis. All the same, that KC loss could be costly. .

Roos was ultimately responsible for the Terlich contract - without his approval, it wouldn't have happened. It's no biggie anyway - these things happen in sporting clubs and Terlich would probably be on a relatively small salary anyway (that smallish salary could could be written off as an expendable item with an overall 10 million spend) The one thing in Terlich's favour is he goes hard at the ball. No good sweating the small stuff - having players contracted who are on relatively small salaries who are at best "depth players" are a part of professional sports worldwide. We paid out Evans last year and it wouldn't have hurt us in comparison to the other clubs - nearly all the clubs are almost certainly faced with the same issue. Veteran players on decent coin often "peter out" in their last year or 2. It's just a part of professional sports. List management is no easy task - certain factors which makes list management difficult are almost unavoidable. Writing off 150k-200k of a salary cap seems like a waste of money but if a lot of the clubs are doing the same (or similar) then it can become an evening-out process. Other players on much bigger salaries who aren't excelling is a much bigger issue - we've got a few of those and those types may or may not be of any trade value. Roos and co need to find a way to get the best & most value out of these type of players.

'Elo' predictions for week 2 Playing for 2 points this week My tips ... Miami Baltimore New England

2 points are up for grabs in week 2 of the tipping comp (the first of the bonus weeks) It's not an easy week to find road winners though (are any of the weeks easy?) The following link may act as a guide for your tips ... note the points spreads are not the Vegas lines - most are close though. 'Elo' predictions for week 2 and the yearly forecast for each team Here's the points tally again ... 1 - JV7 0 - The rest of us