Macca

Mets on the board ... excellent win too. The margins & order of winners of all 3 games decided so far are exactly identical to the '86 series won by the Mets. All the same, it's imperative that New York win game 4 ... falling behind 1-3 would be hard to come back from. .

I think a number of us are looking at it from different perspectives. The bottom line is that the way the draft is structured, there are no guarantees. However, there isn't a structure that will guarantee successful outcomes, all the time. We could have a fully fledged Australia wide under 20/ 21 comp with every conceivable resource thrown in and there would still be busts, aberrations, late bloomers and gun players who were picked late. Almost certainly not as many as we have now but there would still be issues. We've gone from a largely amateur game to fully pro but we still often pluck kids out of high school as the main thrust of building a premiership list. At least, that's often the thinking. My opinion is that it's a medium to high risk strategy that may or may not work. Is there another strategy? Now there is with free agency and/or swapping picks for established talent at other clubs. Clubs can do all that and still be a major player in the draft. The Hawthorn strategy is interesting - of late, drafting kids doesn't seem to be their default way of doing things - because they haven't had top end draft picks recently, they've had to be more creative. Previously, we were draft obsessed and weren't creative enough.

The draft is not a complete lottery but it is somewhat of a lottery or a bit of a lottery ... or it's a lottery sometimes and sometimes it's not. It's impossible to define and it varies from year to year. I've always recognised that the top 5 or 10 picks are going to better than the next 10 and so on and so forth. It is largely flawed of course otherwise all the top end picks would be top players and all first round picks would at least be good to very good players. We know that has never happened so it remains a flawed system and is a bit of a lottery ... unless of course all the recruiters are completely incompetent - as recently as 2009 nearly all the recruiters overlooked Fyfe. Fyfe was not an impressive junior though so what are the recruiters supposed to do? The facts speak for themselves and the Toumpas bust* is further proof that a number of top juniors just can't cut it in the big time. Like all flawed systems like these there is an element of luck involved and other major factors like development, coaching, culture and being surrounded by poor leaders or excellent leaders. However, I still maintain a top player drives himself to the top. Raising the draft age is a real option but then they'd have to restructure the feeder leagues and make sure that top talent is not lured away to other sports. The other option is to leave it as it is and put up with a flawed system. *At least at our club Toumpas is a bust - he may go on and be at least a reasonable player elsewhere.

Giants Seattle Green Bay

This week isn't any easier to find 3 road winners either (see post #3405 above) ... but at least there's a few big match-ups we can look forward to watching ... Packers @ Denver (SNF) & Indianapolis @ Carolina (MNF) probably being the pick of the games. Friday's game could be interesting though and the Seattle @ Dallas (Early) & Giants @ Saints (Late on 7mate) games holds real interest. The 49ers @ Rams is the early game on 7mate. We've got another London game as well (Lions @ KC) Big numbers viewed last week's live stream on yahoo. Probably the best line-up of games for the season so far ... certainly better than the last few weeks.

Week 8 games (2 points on offer this week) Weeks 10, 13, 15 & 17 are also bonus weeks with week 17 worth 3 points. So ... there's still time for those outside of the top 4 to catch up. Once again, here's the points tally ... 4 - JV7 3 - Gorgoroth cowboy_from_ hell Georgiou R.R. Martin 1 - titan_uranus Macca 0 - Everyone else

Well that went on for a bit ... We might get more of the same too ... 2 evenly matched teams like this promises at least 6 games you'd reckon. Can't see a 4-1 result considering we're back in New York for the middle 3 games. Here are the highlights from game 1

Yet you had Toumpas ahead of Wines just prior to the draft In fact, you had Toumpas as a standout of that draft and you wanted the club to draft him ... you had him in front of Stringer as well. Post #69 of this thread

Tipping comp leaderboard 4 - JV7 3 - Gorgoroth cowboy_from_ hell Georgiou R.R. Martin 1 - titan_uranus Macca 0 - Everyone else A few observations ... There are 5 teams with a 6 & 0 record (Cinci, Packers, Pats, Panthers & Broncos) The AFC South is currently 8 & 19 Dallas will need to win a game soon, otherwise ... The Vikes & Rams are definite wild-card threats Detroit have gone backwards The Jets might be a wild-card chance as well The NFC East remains the hardest division to pick The Saints might get on a roll - next 4 ... vs Giants, vs Titans, @ Washington, @ Houston Has the League figured out Andrew Luck? Is Cam Newton a top 10 QB right now? The Raiders might be half decent We need to stop picking the Bills in road games .

The inability of the Springboks to score tries was costly - still, they ran them to 2 points when I was expecting the All Blacks to win comfortably ... a little ray of hope I suppose but first we need to win against Argentina (who have had a very good tournament)

Which in turn means that our picks 46* & 50* (or indeed our later picks) won't be used on rookie elevations. Apparently it changed last year. Rookie elevations 2014 We still could pass on any of those picks but picks 46 & 50 may well secure the club a couple of spec picks who may turn out alright. *Pick numbers 46 & 50 will almost certainly change because of the academy players being bid on. Effectively both picks will end up in the early 40's/mid 40's or better.

The picks that Sydney would use on Mills would effectively be put back to the end of the draft BM. They don't disappear completely but for all intents and purposes, they might as well do. Thus, our later picks (46 & 50) would slide up the order as all the teams that have academy players use their picks (points) on academy players. And the teams without academies will force their hands too. As I read it, both of our late picks (46 & 50) will almost certainly end up as earlier picks in the draft order ... of course, it's supposedly a shallow draft but I've an inkling that we might have an eye on 2 late spec picks. New bidding system for father-sons, academies .

There might be a delisted free agent or 2 who we might bring in. At a guess I reckon we'll look at 1 player but it might be 2 (at a stretch) The delisted free agents become available on Oct 31 ... until Nov 9 with a 2nd period between Nov 11 & 20. I reckon we'll use picks 46 & 50 on a couple of young prospects rather than pass on either of those picks (rookie upgrades are no longer part of the ND - as from last year) Remembering that last year we used 2 later picks on ANB & O-Mac so we could well have our eye on 2 more spec picks in that region of picks. It shouldn't also be forgotten that we delisted Evans last year despite him being contracted. With 8 out and 3 in already that leaves 5 spots unless we delist another player or 2. Here's how I read it going forward ... Out - Cross, Jamar, Howe, Toumpas, Fitzpatrick, Riley, Bail, McKenzie, ???????, ???????. In - Melksham, Kennedy, Bugg, ND3, ND7, ND46, ND50, vandenBerg (rookie upgrade) , Harmes (rookie upgrade), DFA x 1. 10 primary list changes but it might only be 9. Or even just the 8 as it stands right now. .

The 49ers look a shadow of their former selves .. their offense just doesn't work at all. Seattle on the other hand could get on a roll ... next up @ Dallas (minus Romo and probably Bryant) then their bye week followed by 3 games in a row at home (Arizona, San Francisco, Pittsburgh) That division is far from decided with Arizona coming back to the field a bit ... the Rams have a chance to gain ground too - next 4 ... vs Cleveland, vs 49ers, @ Minnesota and then vs Chicago.

old dee, if the drafting age doesn't change I can deal with it (I don't expect the drafting age to change either - at least not in the near future) Raising the draft age (especially if it was raised by 2 years) would help a lot but there would still be busts (though not nearly as many one would think) Anyway, despite my cynicism with regards to the draft, I'm still genuinely excited at the prospect of drafting 2 possible top players with picks 3 & 7 this season. I'm not jaded or dismayed by our past drafting like many might be. I see the draft for what it is and am always hopeful. .

Fairly sure that Neeld said the following in one of his press conferences ... paraphrasing .. "I wanted grunt and we decided to go with the bloke with 2 bad hips" Was he telling the truth? Regardless, I blame the system we have rather than the clubs, recruiters or coaches (more so with the top end picks that don't work out) Not all top juniors are able to make it in the big time ... that was true before we ever had drafting.

Toumpas was a no-brainer as well according to nearly all the recruiters and the large majority here. Including your good self.It's all just revisionist stuff anyway ... the shouda, couda, wouda people can bleat and moan all they like but it won't do them any good. Re Hogan - yes, a no-brainer but Neeld wasn't going to get the benefits of Hogan his way for at least 12 months. I wasn't a Neeld fan but he should not be held to account alone for any draftees that ended up being poor choices. The draft is an ass anyway. .

Week 7 games Buffalo Atlanta Seattle

Everything on the line for the Cubs & Blue Jays tomorrow - going to be tough for Toronto facing Volquez again but I'm hoping both series can be extended just so I can watch live some weekend action. The Cubs especially will want to avoid a sweep. Was Boston the last team to come from 3 nil down and win a 7 game series? It's a big ask but you never know.

Ha ha ... it's not that much of lottery where it's purely a number thing.

It's such a departure on how we've done things previously ... to get better the list builders need to use all avenues at their disposal. Free agency is the next step and to me it looks like we've put pressure on ourselves (next year) to go down that path - and that's a good thing. Or, as someone else suggested, we may trade to get back into the first round of drafting next year.

Great news ... to offset the loss of our first rounder next year we can just bring in a couple of decent free agents - the club could very well have that all that mapped out as a default move. If that happens, we're miles in front on the deal (providing we draft well of course - fingers crossed) The best part about this whole trade period is we seem to have a clear plan on what we want and what we need ... well played to all involved! I wonder if there's more to come?

So who wanted to swap pick 3 for Hogan? Neeld? What about Viney & Kent? Surely if Neeld is to be "blamed" for Toumpas he should also be thanked for Hogan, Viney and a possible decent player in Kent ... Matt Jones was in the same draft - who picked him? Anyway, it's all academic anyway because the drafting system we have is flawed and is a bit of a lottery. Toumpas was a standout junior and like many other standout juniors, he just hasn't been able to make it in the AFL (so far) I've an inkling that Jimmy will have a reasonable career at Port but I suppose time will tell us whether that will eventuate. There's plenty of average footballers or even below average footballers in the system who will continue to get played in plenty of games. There's just not that many genuine A & B graders in the system. Outside of the best teams, the other clubs all have an abundance of C & D graders on their lists ... plus, there's also any number of "project players" in the system (1st, 2nd & often 3rd and 4th year draftees and all the rookies) Those doubting the above only have to look at our own list (more so our lists from '07 onwards) Then there's the lists of Carlton, Essendon, Gold Coast, St Kilda and Brisbane ... there's not too many genuine A & B graders in amongst those 5 teams. The talent pool is already quite thin and we're apparently getting a shallow draft this year to boot.

Tipping comp leaderboard 4 - JV7 3 - Gorgoroth cowboy_from_ hell 2 - Georgiou R.R. Martin 1 - titan_uranus Macca 0 - Everyone else Standout win was the Panthers winning in Seattle whilst the standout loss was Seattle losing and as a consequence now having a 2 & 4 record. The Jets are 4 & 1 and the Steelers are now 4 & 2. Tomorrow's game is a huge game for both the Eagles & the Giants. A win or loss either way means a great deal of significance to the NFC East. Here's that final Panthers drive ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dymUtuAVeW8

Fargo season 2 has started ... plenty of good reviews and there's a number of familiar and notable actors such as Ted Danson, Kirsten Dunst, Nick Offerman & Brad Garrett in this season (amongst a few others from season 1) On SBS later this month. 'Homeland' is back as well (ch10) and 'Narcos' is well worth a look - on Netflix.