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Everything posted by Macca
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Cross Counter wins the 3200m Dubai World Cup in impressive style ... all the talk pre-race was about the horses' victory in the Melbourne Cup and how the Cup was such a great barometer. All class was Cross Counter. The talk now is l'arc de Triomphe for the horse which adds further to the lustre of the Melbourne Cup as a truly international race. Some tremendous racing to come tonight including a few Aussie horses in the sprint (Brave Smash, Viddora & Illustrious Lad) Culminating in the Dubai Turf & the Dubai World Cup to close the meeting.
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I should get crook more often Wadda ... ended up taking the 2 best bets for the win in another multi so that's a nice collect considering I got $13 for the win on Mister Sea Wolf as well as $4.50 for Mosh Music. Vaguely remember @binman throwing it into the trifecta that we used to do and it has a great record first up Hope you blokes got similar collects
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Past the worst of it thanks Wadda - still a bit proppy but a few more days of rest should do the trick. Starting to feel my age ... no longer bullet-proof, that's for sure! 3 lots of anti-biotics has knocked me around. Anyway, good luck with the multi fellas ... best bets for the place seems quite a sensible move given how tough the fields are tomorrow. I took Mosh Music for the place & the win in 2 separate multi's.
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Best Bet Rosehill Race 8 No.1 Mister Sea Wolf $4.00 (Place)
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Count me out for a bit both here and on the ADATR thread ... got the flu bad and resting up
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Best Bet Rosehill Race 6 No.2 Avilius $3.60
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I reckon there are any number of teams that only have between 4 & 8 top players each. So we've got a headstart on any number of teams. If we count Fritsch (some would also have vanders and/or ANB in as well) then we've got 16 but that 16 has had a number of recent additions over the last 3 years Salem is a much more rounded player now Melksham is starting to show his true worth Harmes is much improved Brayshaw has come of age after overcoming chronic concussion issues Lewis has only played 2 seasons with us T-Mac is now a revelation up forward Hibberd & Oliver have only played 3 seasons for us May is new & Lever much the same. Petracca gets better every year but is nowhere near his ceiling yet. We've come a long way in a very short space of time. And the growth of the list doesn't stop there ... if we can add 4 or 5 good/top players to what we've already got, that elusive premiership is not out of reach. Teams that win multiple flags (Cats, Hawks, Swans, Lions) often have the same thing in common - an abundance of talent. I've a feeling that by seasons end we'll have added 2 or 3 more top players to the 16 or so that we've already got ... we're going to lose Lewis sooner or later and Jones isn't getting any younger either so we need to keep improving our top-end talent.
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My wish list is Weideman, Fritsch, Hunt, ANB, AVB, Pruess, Frost/Oscar and because we need a small forward, Spargo. I'm more confident with Fritsch, AVB & possibly Weideman. ANB if he corrects a few faults - the good news is that he gets to a lot of contests and gets the ball a lot. Ideally, 2 or 3 of those we've drafted in the last seasons can step it up.
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In a stronger team he may not always play ... we're projecting forward of course and there is a chance we might even regress slightly. ANB can become a very good player but his decision making and disposal needs to improve. Lewis is another who may not last the distance this season. At times he's a real standout but he does get found out otherwise. Anyway, I did state that not all would agree with the 15 that I nominated - the thread is about who you believe can step up. Care to have a go?
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Yet he didn't play in the prelim final. I'd have him in as well but I also have an eye on how the FD views things
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I believe if we're to become a guaranteed top 4 team (and therefore a genuine contender) we're going to need 7 or 8 players to jump out of the ruck and become integral members of the team. i.e. Make the jump and stay there. Gawn, Viney, Jones, Lewis, Oliver, Brayshaw, Harmes, Melksham, Jetta, Hibberd, May, Lever, Salem, Petracca & T-Mac are automatics but injuries will happen and loss of form has to be factored in as well. I understand we've got 'Best 22' threads but this idea is more specific and therefore focuses on who you believe can establish themselves outside of the obvious choices. Total-Team possibly being the theme with the team therefore not having any real weak links (if possible) Role players like AVB, Weideman, Preuss, Fritsch/Stretch, Oscar/Frost, ANB/Hunt & Spargo/Garlett will get game time by default but can any of them become absolute integral members of the team? There are others of course including those who I've not mentioned, the new acquisitions and rookies. Unfortunately Nietschke is out of the picture for now but could any of Bedford, Jordan, Sparrow or Hore make the jump straight off? So, from the 25 senior players (plus 6 rookies) not included in the above list, which players can become bona-fide first choice picks? Here's our Senior List & Rookie List
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Not to worry Wadda ... from my point of view getting a multi up is always a complete surprise. Even just the 3 legs. So I don't do many of them for that reason. And I figure we may as well look for some value in the picks as well ... thus, I took a chance on Barca +3.5 instead of +2.5. But there again, it is Barca and they nearly always perform to expectations. It was possibly a trap game for Juve (in hindsight) but you play the game again and they probably win 3-1 Multi's are hard to get ... they get heavily promoted by the betting agencies for good reason. The lure of the big payout for a tiny outlay is like bees to the honeypot!
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There are a stack of Australian horses racing up at HK with the latest winner of a big event being a good case-in-point. Ex Australian galloper Furore wins the HK Derby in style with Hugh Bowman on board. And with the relaxed quarantine laws there's sure to be more Australian representation as the prize money is fantastic up there yet the local standard often doesn't measure up. In fact, 6 of the 14 starters in the HK Derby started their career's in Australia. Our jockeys are cashing in up there as well.
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I usually put my bets on way in advance but the issue arose when I attempted to place a multi bet on close to the first leg being run. Might have been 20 - 30 minutes prior. I actually thought I was doing something wrong until I read your account ... previously, the Laddies site has crashed or has become treacle slow. And I ended up getting 21-1 for our multi ... Juve has drifted out to 2.88. Makes a big difference to the overall with just a .30-.40 percentage point swing.
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Similar thing happened to me recently ... repeated the process for the 3rd time before the balance changed. They have got an obvious glitch in their system. Same situation - multi bet
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Here is the tri -pick Serie A Sunday 10.30pm Genoa v Juventus / Juventus Win and +2.5 $2.63 Spain La liga Monday 6.45am Real Betis vs Barcelona (Win) and +3.5 $2.88 Portugal Primeira Liga Monday at 04:30 Moreirense FC v Benfica Benfica Win & Over 2.5 match goals. $2.20 Adds up to around about 17-1 (with a boost) Good luck all!
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Weekend Special Spain La liga Monday 6.45am Real Betis vs Barcelona (Win) and +3.5 $2.88
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Hong Kong Derby tomorrow with former Australian galloper 'Dark Dream' installed as 2nd favourite. The winner should come from the top 4 listed runners. Here is the form for the race And here is the replay of the Coolmore Classic raced today at Rosehill.
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Best Bet Strike Rate 103: 41 - 14 - 14 Australian Group & Listed Races
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Slight correction to Gator's tips ... he missed on race 3. I think I was counting one of JJ's earlier tips in the mix. But if Gator or JJ have a good day I win as well. I only back their value runners though ... gotta be paying at least 3.50 or better. JJ also tipped me into Lucky Flipper ($6.50) in race 6 but I missed on Light the Waves ($4.00) in race 7 as the horse opened at $3.00 but drifted. Good get with Fifty Stars too Wadda ... I threw it into a couple of late multi's but dipped out. Not to worry though as I had a decent day at the races. And we might have the heir apparent to Winx with Mystic Journey ... well, the next dominant horse at least. A commanding performance in the All Star Mile. Beat some gun horses yet was 3-wide without cover for much of the race. Cost $11k as a yearling.
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The first horse listed is the horse he marks on top Wadda As such in race 5 ... 3, 7, 2, 5 Here are the rest of his tips
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Gator has picked the winner in races 2, 3, 4 & 5 ... all value picks too Needless to say, I'm now playing with house money!
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Big breaking news re the All Star Mile Three All-Star Mile contenders in doubt, 'Le Romain' and possibly 'Trap for Fools' poised to get a start Meanwhile, here's JJ's best bet at Morphettville Race 8 No.2 Master Chum $5.50 I'll try and post up his tips late Saturday morning but failing that, go to Racing.com after 10.00am Saturday for his tips. And here are Gator's tips for Flemington this coming Saturday
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Best Bet Flemington Race 8 No.11 Alizee $4.00