Macca

Best Bet Randwick Race 9 No.3 Alizee $8.50

Ha ha! ... very true Wadda I reckon we had the worst run in drafting ever ... no other club comes lose. Abject failure after abject failure yet all had stellar junior career's and close to 100% of our supporters were all-in on the picks. The list of failed first rounders is simply astonishing. And if Petracca doesn't get to at least B+ standard, he will cop grief for his entire career ... I can almost guarantee it "He's supposed to be a Star" is the belief system. But you'd probably have to go to Philadelphia (sixers) in the NBA. Started tanking years ago and then kept picking duds. But they were never perturbed and they just kept on tanking - year after year after year ... and now they've finally got a decent team. Go figure!

At least a dozen clubs have tanked and it has happened about 40 times. And it still goes on. Why should any Demon supporter feel one ounce of guilt about tanking? Seriously? So we tanked, who cares? I don't and never will. I'd happily see the club tank again if needs be. And I suspect we did tank in a very subtle way in 2014. Rule of thumb ... If you think a club is tanking, they are probably tanking. But there again, the draft is severely flawed anyway so you can tank for garbage returns. That's the risk but again, it's a risk worth taking. If we had have better returns through our tanking, the tanking investigation would never have happened. Ask Hawthorn & Collingwood - both teams tanked and then won premierships. So it is risk/reward/kick in the guts. As an example, Carlton have tanked at least 6 or 7 times (including last year) ... and every Carlton supporter I know freely admits that their team tanks regularly. They are not ashamed either - they couldn't give a f/f. It's as if the footy public & footy media are continually outraged about something that occurs regularly ... they're either oblivious to the obvious or are so attached to footy that they simply don't want to know about it. I suspect the latter explanation is more apt. Footnote ... tanking has probably occurred in the USA over 200 times in the last 20 or 30 years. Same circumstances - a draft and people are the same all over (i.e all humans have the same exact traits - greed, cheating, envy etc etc) And the yanks couldn't care less about tanking - it's an ancient, irrelevant story over there.

What an iconic race is the Doncaster Hcp. Will class prevail (Hartnell, Alizee, Le Romain) or maybe a 3yo lightweight chance? (Brutal, El Dorado Dreaming) Land of Plenty, Fifty Stars, Shillelagh & Widgee Turf can't be ruled out either. The exotics are sure to pay well even with the favoured horses getting into the finish. Here is the field & form for the great race

I don't do a lot of multi's anyway Wadda so the earlier double is not really much of a cost factor anyway ... and such is the case with last night's win, was happy to do the treble only and hope for the best. But my strategy with the horses is different as it's a real time event ... Harlem being scratched meant that we were only playing for the double anyway. As previously stated, there's some science to multi's that needs to be figured out. I used to get tempted by the big payouts but I now reckon there's other ways to win.

Not always Wadda but the earlier double does take away the temptation to cash out on the treble ... plus, if the earlier double stands out, why not? You can divide up your overall outlay accordingly. It's either that or you put all your eggs in the one basket and then hope for the best ... previously, I've cashed out and then reloaded - that's an option too unless the cash-out offer is unreasonable. I've also noticed that the cash-out offers of late are designed to end up letting the bet ride ... and the cynic in me sees that as a strategy from the bookies. The counter move is to do the early double and let the treble ride anyway. Appeals to my percentage punting way of thinking too.

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My answer is to go overnight in a multi or take an early double as part of a treble. For instance, at Meydan (Dubai) I had Cross Counter & Almond Eye in a double (both horses won so I won with combined odds of 5-1) but I also did a treble with both horses along with Rey De Oro in a later race ... Rey De Oro didn't win so I missed on the treble but I did get the earlier double - and I wasn't tempted to cash-out either because I'd already won on the double. Silly me ignored 'Old Persian' in the Rey De Oro race looking for better odds - another lesson learned! That's how I like to do multi's Wadda ... it's all about getting collects along the way in my book. I reckon there's some money to be made just doing doubles too. Again, we've gone 2 from 3 a number of times already on the MB thread. And we've often been sitting on 2 from 2 (early) a stack of times on the racing multi. Get the early double and then you're playing with house money is what I'm gleaning with the combined multi.

Waking up and winning is a great way to go Wadda ... I'm highly superstitious too so whatever works must be adhered to going forward. No messin' with a winning formula! I can't even watch the races a lot of the time (unless it is a big Group 1 race) ... the wireless is the go. Serves me well too as I got a few winners at Meydan & Sha Tin over the weekend as well. The combined collect of 20-1 is very good odds looked at in isolation ... 1 or 2 bankers coupled with 1 or 2 value picks seems ideal too. As always, you need some luck as well so it's not all scientific.

Yeah well done fellas ... decent collect too @ 20-1. Be nice to get on a roll now.

Here's the 3pick ... Bundesliga Monday 3.00am $1.95 Eintracht Frankfurt Win & +2.5 Goals Match Score vs VfB Stuttgart Serie A 12.00am Sunday night Roma v Napoli Napoli win & +2.5 goals match score $3.40 French Ligue 1 Monday at 02:00 Nantes v Lille ... Lille Win $2.50 With the help of an odds boost the combo can deliver 19-1 Good luck all!

Monday Special Bundesliga Monday 3.00am $1.95 Eintracht Frankfurt Win & +2.5 Goals Match Score vs VfB Stuttgart

Best Bet Strike Rate 110: 45 - 14 - 15 Australian Group & Listed Races

Cross Counter wins the 3200m Dubai World Cup in impressive style ... all the talk pre-race was about the horses' victory in the Melbourne Cup and how the Cup was such a great barometer. All class was Cross Counter. The talk now is l'arc de Triomphe for the horse which adds further to the lustre of the Melbourne Cup as a truly international race. Some tremendous racing to come tonight including a few Aussie horses in the sprint (Brave Smash, Viddora & Illustrious Lad) Culminating in the Dubai Turf & the Dubai World Cup to close the meeting.

I should get crook more often Wadda ... ended up taking the 2 best bets for the win in another multi so that's a nice collect considering I got $13 for the win on Mister Sea Wolf as well as $4.50 for Mosh Music. Vaguely remember @binman throwing it into the trifecta that we used to do and it has a great record first up Hope you blokes got similar collects

Past the worst of it thanks Wadda - still a bit proppy but a few more days of rest should do the trick. Starting to feel my age ... no longer bullet-proof, that's for sure! 3 lots of anti-biotics has knocked me around. Anyway, good luck with the multi fellas ... best bets for the place seems quite a sensible move given how tough the fields are tomorrow. I took Mosh Music for the place & the win in 2 separate multi's.

Best Bet Rosehill Race 8 No.1 Mister Sea Wolf $4.00 (Place)

Count me out for a bit both here and on the ADATR thread ... got the flu bad and resting up

Best Bet Rosehill Race 6 No.2 Avilius $3.60

I reckon there are any number of teams that only have between 4 & 8 top players each. So we've got a headstart on any number of teams. If we count Fritsch (some would also have vanders and/or ANB in as well) then we've got 16 but that 16 has had a number of recent additions over the last 3 years Salem is a much more rounded player now Melksham is starting to show his true worth Harmes is much improved Brayshaw has come of age after overcoming chronic concussion issues Lewis has only played 2 seasons with us T-Mac is now a revelation up forward Hibberd & Oliver have only played 3 seasons for us May is new & Lever much the same. Petracca gets better every year but is nowhere near his ceiling yet. We've come a long way in a very short space of time. And the growth of the list doesn't stop there ... if we can add 4 or 5 good/top players to what we've already got, that elusive premiership is not out of reach. Teams that win multiple flags (Cats, Hawks, Swans, Lions) often have the same thing in common - an abundance of talent. I've a feeling that by seasons end we'll have added 2 or 3 more top players to the 16 or so that we've already got ... we're going to lose Lewis sooner or later and Jones isn't getting any younger either so we need to keep improving our top-end talent.

My wish list is Weideman, Fritsch, Hunt, ANB, AVB, Pruess, Frost/Oscar and because we need a small forward, Spargo. I'm more confident with Fritsch, AVB & possibly Weideman. ANB if he corrects a few faults - the good news is that he gets to a lot of contests and gets the ball a lot. Ideally, 2 or 3 of those we've drafted in the last seasons can step it up.

In a stronger team he may not always play ... we're projecting forward of course and there is a chance we might even regress slightly. ANB can become a very good player but his decision making and disposal needs to improve. Lewis is another who may not last the distance this season. At times he's a real standout but he does get found out otherwise. Anyway, I did state that not all would agree with the 15 that I nominated - the thread is about who you believe can step up. Care to have a go?

Yet he didn't play in the prelim final. I'd have him in as well but I also have an eye on how the FD views things

I believe if we're to become a guaranteed top 4 team (and therefore a genuine contender) we're going to need 7 or 8 players to jump out of the ruck and become integral members of the team. i.e. Make the jump and stay there. Gawn, Viney, Jones, Lewis, Oliver, Brayshaw, Harmes, Melksham, Jetta, Hibberd, May, Lever, Salem, Petracca & T-Mac are automatics but injuries will happen and loss of form has to be factored in as well. I understand we've got 'Best 22' threads but this idea is more specific and therefore focuses on who you believe can establish themselves outside of the obvious choices. Total-Team possibly being the theme with the team therefore not having any real weak links (if possible) Role players like AVB, Weideman, Preuss, Fritsch/Stretch, Oscar/Frost, ANB/Hunt & Spargo/Garlett will get game time by default but can any of them become absolute integral members of the team? There are others of course including those who I've not mentioned, the new acquisitions and rookies. Unfortunately Nietschke is out of the picture for now but could any of Bedford, Jordan, Sparrow or Hore make the jump straight off? So, from the 25 senior players (plus 6 rookies) not included in the above list, which players can become bona-fide first choice picks? Here's our Senior List & Rookie List