Macca

Leaderboard Post Season Tipping Comp 9 - DemonDave, Dee Zephyr 8 - Go the Biff 7 - Macca 6 - JV7 5 - Clintosaurus, Gorgoroth 4 - Dappa Dan 2 - DeeSpencer If you accurately tip the SB Winner you'll receive 3 points ... plus a bonus 2 points if your winning score falls within 3 points of the winning teams actual score. e.g. Dappa Dan puts up a scoreline of KC 34 49ers 31 ... if KC win and their winning score is somewhere between (and including) 31 - 37, then Dappa would pick up a total of 5 points (3 points plus 2 bonus points) So, all those participating can still win (either outright or tie for the win) or finish on the podium. And we could extend the bonus points system for all the rounds of the playoffs next year ... makes putting up the scorelines worthwhile.

Over/under set at 53.5 for the SB ... that might be unders for these 2 free scoring teams. You'd reckon the winning team could easily rack up the numbers ... Ravens aside, the 49ers & KC are the 2 best teams. Both teams are great to watch as well. And credit to Andy Reid (again) ... he just knows how to get his team's into contention. Time management can sometimes be an issue though ? Packers need to turn a good list into a great list ... LaFleur did very well in his first year but he'll need to reshape the team. There is still too much onus on Rodgers as we have weaknesses at RB (depth) WR (depth) and the run defence & pass defence isn't great either. The O-Line is reasonable but we're a ways off from an overall perspective. All in all we did well to make the last 4 ... which is something that 28 other teams didn't achieve. Good luck to the 49ers & KC fans that reside here on this thread. Just getting to the SB is some sort of achievement.

2 scores in it now though Packers will now need the 49ers to make an error or 2 (turnover) to have any sort of chance

As forecast by many (including myself) I only tipped the Packers (here) because I would never pick against my team. I thought we did tremendously well to make the last 4 to be honest. We're not a bad team but we're not that good either. On the other hand the 49ers look the complete package ... barring a miracle comeback by Green Bay the SB match-up looks a beauty.

Titans 17 Chiefs 32 Packers 28 49ers 27

Excellent recap above @DemonDave Leaderboard Post Season Tipping Comp 5 - DemonDave, Dee Zephyr, Macca 4 - JV7, Go the Biff, Dappa Dan 3 - Clintosaurus, Gorgoroth 2 - DeeSpencer This week each game is worth 2 points whilst the SB Winner receives 3 points plus a bonus 2 points if your winning score falls within 3 points of the actual score. And that is for the SB only, not this week KC are -7.5 favourites whilst San Francisco are -6.5 favourites.

Going to real tough at the 49ers next week though. Happy to be in the hunt of course ... we'll have to be at our best to have a chance. Still can't believe the Ravens didn't turn up and Houston threw away that game against KC. And the Titans could go all the way with the way they're playing.

Fairly sure a lot of our good players under Smith were from different parts of the bush but when we were restricted to the Goulburn Valley only (or part of) that all changed. Ironically we did get a few excellent players from that zone later on when the draft was first phased in (notably Lyon, Schwarz, David Williams and 1 or 2 others) And the zones were meant to be switched around every 3 to 5 years but that never happened. From what I've been told we were given the worst possible zones because of the ongoing success that we were having back then. That's probably what Smith was going on about (?) But by hell we dropped away (talent-wise) in a hurry post that great era.

But we have no such excuses in the drafting era (although we did contest the finals 12 years out of 20 from '87)

The zones were a big big factor too although it could be argued we didn't put enough time & effort into our zones (?) The older members would know more about that than I would.

The differences you highlight I don't bother with It's just Supporter-Speak based on human instincts. We'd be the same if we were as successful. Arrogance comes naturally per se. Clubs operate despite what their supporters say or do (primarily)

And the Packers just got lucky there ... not sure that the ball broke the plane (Jones) But you take the good with the bad hey?

In my opinion we've often never had enough real talent and I measure the list against dynasty type teams. Why? Because that is how good you need to be. Our biggest failings has been with recruiting. And I'd argue that recruiting is the most important aspect of a club. Great recruiting = A great list (as long as the coaching and all the rest of it is sound) But it all goes hand in hand so the leadership and expertise from the top needs to be A1 in order to be great at recruiting. Do that and then the wins happen. Hawthorn's strength has been it's recruiting. In the last half century, they've done it better than any other team We were once in the same position under Smith, Cardwell with Ivor as the right hand man to Norm. Back then (from what I've been told & what I've read) our recruiting was supreme.

I prefer to view things as the club will do whatever regardless of how we feel or what we say or do. We'd like to think that we make a difference but really we don't. I have been involved in local sport all my life and that is where one can really make a difference. Just my view of course but the club obviously knows its supporter base wants success ... and they know we're fiercely loyal too. Just like any other fan base I gave the Hawthorn example because I don't believe their supporters are any different to ours ... in the last half century 12 flags versus 0 flags. And considering our lack of success in the half century it's quite amazing to have over 50 thousand members. We are the club's greatest asset. Make no mistake about that. Fitzroy & South Melbourne supporters lost their clubs because of a lack of onfield success (which evemtually effected their supporter numbers) So never beat yourself up about your own support for the club. You and the rest of us are playing our part.

The club should be aiming to win every game Us supporters are mere onlookers ... whatever we say doesn't matter much at all. We may as well be just having these types of conversations in pubs. Amounts to the same thing. We supporters can aim high, low or anywhere in between but we influence very little. Our importance lies with our numbers and our money. But take that away and the club would be losing it's greatest asset (us) Without us there is no club. For the most part, as a member/supporter, I often feel like I make zero difference. e.g. If I'd picked Hawthorn as a youngster I would have witnessed 12 flags. Sliding doors for a lot of us yeah RBG?

We got 10 wins in 2016 but there wasn't a great deal of substance and then 12 wins in 2017 which turned out to be a stepping stone for 2018. Of course, we fell short against Collingwood in that last round in 2017 but the Pies were just starting to click (they made the GF in 2018) They were a better team in 2017 than their ladder position indicated. I remember saying so at the time too. If one could list 13 or 14 of our players who can stay on the park and perform to a very good level 4 out of 5 weeks, then I'd be a lot more buoyant and bullish. But that isn't us, not yet anyway. The best teams often have very few, if any, passengers. Especially the dynasty clubs (in any sport) And it can never be assumed that any club doesn't hit the odd hurdle whilst always trying to build a top list. If we knew the answer on how to add 3 good players every season, we'd be worth our weight in gold. In the last 15 years or so, we've had any number of year's where we've only added 1 or 0 good players to the list. Talent identification and how to get hold of that talent has been our greatest failure. The draft has often been cruel to us and let's face it, that reasoning is why the list has often been substandard. And when we've swapped first rounders for proven talent (notably Lever & May) the bad luck has continued with chronic injuries. We could do with a dose of good fortune for a change. As for what Bartlett and Pert might be saying ... Pres-Speak & CEO-Speak. I don't place a lot of stock with that stuff. It's best to just use your own eyes.

Rebuilding is a constant thing rjay. I'd argue that the hardest time to rebuild is when success happens but there's never a time to sit back. Otherwise failure kicks in. Goodwin (or any coach for that matter) would like 25 - 28 AFL standard players on his list ... say no worse than B. And we are a ways off that level. A long way off in fact. Dynasty's fascinate me but those dynasty clubs in all those sports have one thing in common ... loads of actual talent. Ongoing. But achieve that and you're right in the hunt and if the fine-tuning happens as a constant, you're in the hunt for a long period of time. So I've learnt to be patient with our club ... you have to be. But we're building a better list where as there has been many times when I felt the club sat back way too much. Even with all the interrupted pre seasons and off-season surgeries last year we still should have been able to eke out 8 - 10 wins. We dropped off too far which is concerning. So I'm hoping that we can at least break even for 2020 and to me that will be a real stepping stone. If I gave you 11 wins right now would you be tempted to take it if there was real substance in the 11 wins and as an add-on, real hope for the future? Because that's what I'm hoping 11 wins delivers. And 11 could be 10 or 12 too. It's almost impossible to predict these sorts of things Like your good self, I will have a close eye on our game style and whether the application, energy and a never give up attitude combined with real enthusiasm & motivation is present from week to week. What if we do all that and just miss the finals? My thinking is that we are 2 - 4 good players short from going 'close' to contending. And about 6 - 8 good players short of being a genuine contender.

If those making projections had to pay a price if they got it wrong, I reckon you'd see any number of people taking a far more conservative approach on how we'll fare But there is never any price paid so grandiose predictions abound. Most footy fans are the same. Hope & faith rules ... that's how we're wired. Kinda gives us something to whinge about down the track. Been there, done that. But given how untrustworthy the club is we could win anywhere between 8 -14 games. So all things considered I'll take the middle ground of 11 wins and no finals. I won't be entirely happy with that as it's not my ambition but the club is too mentally weak for my liking The bookies have us as 6 - 4 to make the 8 (which is a bit skinny) and 6 -1 for top 4 (skinny as well) 6 - 4 also means that we've got a better than even money chance of missing the finals (according to the money men) After last year, I reckon deep down many will 'accept' 11 wins albeit begrudgingly contrary to their own ambition for the club. 11 wins can be viewed as a stepping stone too. I see making the finals as a bonus as we'll almost certainly get a few injuries to our better players and we don't have that many proven good players. But 2021 could deliver an entirely different outcome. By the way, we are mere onlookers so everything is in the club's hands. And I'd like to think that my view is neither pessimistic nor optimistic. Beige, boring - yep. Just keeping it real. That's how I see it.

Weekend Special NFL Monday 7.00am Houston @ Kansas City Kansas City Win (1-13) $2.50

We will count your last 3 picks Gorg I nearly forgot as well ... the Sunday games sneak up on you Titans looking real good here as well. If they maintain a 2 score lead at the half they could go on with it. Ravens are rusty which can happen if you get the bye.

Vikings 21 @ 49ers 28 Titans 16 @ Ravens 28 Texans 17 @ Chiefs 31 Seattle 24 @ Packers 27

As rjay said, we could make Gawn the sole captain and it wouldn't make a world of difference. All the players on the list need to get the best out of themselves and be self driven If they need someone to hold their hands then we're in for another year of pain. The players need to be able to think for themselves. That is the real issue ... the rest of it is just shuffling the deck chairs. I also believe that Jones & Viney were doing about as well as they can do so why change? If Jones has stepped down then fair enough but he's done nothing wrong in the role.

Yep, and I reckon many have the same sort of variable outcome ... if they were being honest. If we get a rash of injuries or we don't regain form we could easily have another unproductive year re wins But if everything goes right we might eke out 13 or 14 wins But I have already said that previously ... there are a lot of variables in footy. For instance, after our rash of injuries and other issues early last year I revised my expectations right down ... but not all the way down to 17 losses. You should take all those who were predicting finals last year to account. Who the hell was predicting a 5 win season? I'd say no one. Make sense to you now? You reckon we're going to win the flag? You've been telling everyone that ad nauseum You should put your money where your mouth is and make sure it hurts your hip pocket. Good luck trying to get a collect. I would never bet against my own team so you'll have to find another bookie.

And I noticed that 'Saty' has been copping it on the training thread for giving an honest appraisal of our 2019 season. Good on him I say. Must be the time to be all chipper and optimistic hey? The off season brings out the optimists but I hope they aren't disappointed (again) All things considered I reckon the team last year was a 10 win outfit that only won 5 games. And for whatever reason we fell away completely. Good clubs don't allow that to happen. It was as if we were in tank mode. Perhaps we were. 10 - 12 wins is my call for 2020 but if everything goes well we might get 1 or 2 more wins. But if we fall away again like we did last year 8 wins only is on the cards. Tricky start to the season too. I just don't rate the list that highly ... a lot of if's and but's and our game plan would want to improve greatly too. As you've pointed out rjay, the forward line remains the key for me. Our ball movement and leg speed is too slow too. Our disposal skills are often poor and we often choke in front of goal. Clean disposal from the stoppages is problematical and we desperately need May & Lever to be injury free. There are a few other issues but we've got a lot to overcome. I understand we've recruited to rectify needs but I want to see lots of positive signs before I buy-in. Every player needs to get the maximum out of themselves ... no hand-holding, if it is to be it is up to me (RDB) Happy to be proven wrong if we do really well and win a couple of finals.

But I am not focusing on one aspect ... just highlighting the most important aspect. Proven talent in a combination that can win big. All the rest of it can't work without the base product. e.g. Our 2012/13 list couldn't possibly win a premiership regardless of whether every other aspect of the club was firing on all cylinders. Is that clear enough for you? Or do you need 20 or 30 other years where we've clearly been a ordinary outfit? My original point stands ... we have not ever had a great list since the halcyon days and that is why we haven't won big since '64. What is your reasoning about our lack of success? Bad luck? The curse? The MCC involvement? Come on ... I've stuck my neck out, you do the same. Tell us all why we've been largely unsuccessful for more than half a century