Macca

Best Bet Saturday Caulfield R1 No.1 Finance Tycoon $6.00 (W)

Might end up getting scratched anyway

Lofty Strike with a lame right front fetlock ... examination by the Vets tomorrow

You'd have to wonder whether they can get through the meetings up North on Saturday ... days of heavy torrential rain forecast and Randwick is already a Heavy8 (Doomben is a Heavy10 right now) But here are the 5 Group1 races for Saturday Blue Diamond Form Oakleigh Plate Form Futurity Stakes Form Chipping Norton Stakes Form Surround Stakes Form

Reckon Lofty Strikes wins Gorg ... needs cover and a good position (midfield?) but will fly home The danger might be the horse that should lead (English Riviera)

Big day for Tassie racing today at Launceston* So I backed the first 2 winners but something was telling me to put them into a running double ... which is what I didn't do!!! Ugh!! Can't complain too much though as I got double winnings on both *3 Stakes races which includes the Launceston Cup (Race 8)

Liverpool closing the gap on City ... looked a forgone conclusion but Man City are dropping points and Liverpool keep winning Much might depend on the result of when they play against each other but that match-up is in 2 months time. A lot to play-out in the meantime

66,666

Wide open this year, that's for sure. And the barrier draw doesn't make things any clearer from a punting point of view English Riviera has drawn well for a fast beginner though. Tony McEvoy would be happy! It's only one turn at Caulfield so the backmarkers aren't out of it ... but they'll need to negotiate traffic. Revolutionary Miss has a chance And I wouldn't be ruling a line through Lofty Strike especially if Jamie Mott can get the horse into a decent position, mid race

They certainly did throw the whistle away on GF day. In general, there does seem to be a lot less angst when the free kick count is quite low Players really needing to earn a free kick seems to appeal more to the spectators I noticed that we didn't receive a free kick in front of goal (or did we get 1? ... stand corrected on that) But if so, did we kick the highest score in a GF without receiving a free kick within scoring distance?

I could give you numerous examples but one would be if a player is caught out of position and then just blatantly pushes his opponent out of the contest even though he can't mark the ball himself So if that sort of incident isn't penalised then players would infringe all day, every day Or if a player places his hands into the back of an opponent when the ball is clearly going over both of their heads We actually do see that from time to time and it is penalised

13 Group races coming up on Saturday including 5 x G1's & 6 x G2's. Super Saturday in February! Caulfield probably gets the most attention with the Blue Diamond, Futurity Stks & Oakleigh Plate but the 2 G1's up in Sydney (Chipping Norton & Surround Stks) will both attract a lot of good horses And apparently Super Saturday at Flemington will be split up down the track so as to ensure that the All Star Mile is run before the Australian Cup on a regular basis (as a big lead in) As it stands, this year the All Star Mile is to be run on the same day as the Golden Slipper Day up in Sydney (March 19th) where 5 x G1's are held on the same day ... not sure what Peter V'landys would make of all that! Especially with the 1500m G1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m) up against the All Star Mile

Because if it was play on then we could end up with any number of unrealistic marking attempts ... the rule is a good one Risk reward and as jnrmac stated, it keeps the spectacular mark as a hallmark of the game Related but I've often wondered why the yanks don't encourage the high-flyer for the hail-mary attempts in the NFL Juice Newton could have been an NFL player coming off the sidelines for the speccy! A special team specialist

Perhaps an 'In-brackets' caveat would satisfy CD ... "We haven't included Gawn as elite but we haven't factored in the following" ... Leadership, game changing plays, decisive blocks, gut running, the perfectly timed sledge, encouraging teammates, will to win, never give up attitude etc etc) Otherwise, it's just numbers and as we know, the numbers aren't enough without the detail and the nuance

Brayshaw certainly has put a different slant on his wing position (with the help of the Match Committee of course) I can't recall a time when his direct opponent (or the opposition wingman) beat him on the day. Or well beaten? Has that ever happened?

As for the DE stat (Disposal efficiency), for those players disposing of the ball inside 50, Petracca would have been marked harshly ... which is a total nonsense 57% by my calculations (inside 50 entries by Petracca) ... metres gained and his target not winning the ball when they could have won the ball aren't factored in. Petracca even gets awarded a clanger or 2 for 2 of those inside 50 forays as his target was outmarked (caught out playing from behind) What do they say about stats!

So we've got some saying that Brayshaw is just a defensive wingman ... that is just clearly the wrong type of appraisal Many times he wins the ball in contests on the wing and then releases the ball forward ... often into the forward 50 to a target And his opponent nearly always plays an ineffective game

I tend to agree on the 5 year window opportunity but with a caveat ... if we continue to draft well when on top and were able to add 1 or 2 top youngsters per year, we can extend that window A potential embarrassment of riches means that the list can be managed to a point where the incoming talented youth keeps the senior team vibrant and on top Topping up with older players can often make your list too old as a result ... finals are always on the radar but the premiership? But it's a big ask to add 1 or 2 'Top' youngsters per year. It's easier said than done I'm talking about 18 year old's who are heading for B, B+ or A grade status upon arrival at the club As an example... Jackson, Pickett & Rivers all came in the one draft. A, B+ & B? (With the crystal ball out!)

Yeah we don't want to be doing the work of an opposition scout, mono! But seriously, going through the exercise highlighted to me how complicated the game has become and how much the players need to be totally educated on the whole game plan ... and of course, they also need the ability to carry out all the tasks. It's a big buy-in There are also all the midfield structures and plays as well as all the linking up and stoppage work And then there is how we cope and act with regards all the opposition forward forays (inside 50's) There's still a fair bit of old school stuff involved but it's a very complicated game these days Interesting how we attacked through the left HFF a lot of the time too. I would never have know that beforehand

Good point, Satan! (that's the first time I've ever said that ... I think?) I knew I'd miss a few bits and pieces due to not wanting to spend too much time putting it all together For instance, when a player made space for himself in the forward line, I was assuming that the player had created separation from his opponent and thus was playing in front (sort of) We know he can't have just bobbed up by accident ... he's worked hard to get to that position But I just used the GF as a trial run to see how long it would take! And it took a while! Too long if I'm being honest! My motive is/was the season proper and round 1 but I quite literally need about 4 to 6 hours to do it (per game) So, we'll see The alternative is to jot down a few notes and give a quick overview (player entry highlights and target numbers etc) ... but again, that's not the full story (as you've highlighted with the pressure that Kozzie exhibited that led to the 3 goals scored) Or, we're stuck with just the total inside 50 count and how many goals & points we scored ... which doesn't tell us a great deal

Certainly was a great race ... and if Nature Strip doesn't botch the start it probably wins But that's racing and JMac is the gun and he jumped on the right horse. 7-1 was excellent value, all things considered

2021 Grand Final Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs Final Quarter 19.35 Sparrow → Brown (Front Position - Left FP) ... Mark → Goal! 13.11 18.46 Spargo → Fritsch (In the clear - Left HFF) ... Mark → Goal! 14.11 17.55 Petracca → Running shot from CHF, outside 50 ... Point 14.12 17.38 Salem → Jackson (Front Position - Left HFF) ... ball spilled free Bulldogs clear 15.14 Langdon → ANB (Front Position, in the clear CHF) ... Mark → Goal! 15.12 14.26 Oliver → (CHF Scramble) ... Bulldogs clear 13.04 Fritsch → Langdon (Front Position - Left HFF) ... Mark → Goal 16.12 11.13 ANB → Fritsch (Front Position - Left HFF) ... Mark → Point 16.13 08.40 Oliver → Into Space (FF Area) ... Bulldogs clear 08.11 Petracca → TMac (Front Position CHF) ... Mark → Goal 07.05 Petracca → Brayshaw (Left HFF) ... Runs inside 50 → OOF 06.16 Bowey → Jackson (Front Position - CHF) ... Scramble → ANB → Jackson → Salem → Goal! 18.13 05.43 Sparrow → Jackson (Front Position - CHF) ... Mark → Goal! 19.13 04.48 Gawn → Runs inside 50 → Rushed behind 19.14 03.05 Brayshaw → Fritsch (Front Position - Left HFF) ... Mark → Goal! 20.13 02.12 Gawn → Handpass inside 50 ... Bulldogs clear 00.47 Gawn → Bulldogs Mark (HFF) then cleared 00.26 Oliver → Handpass → ANB → TMac (Front Position - CHF) ... Mark → Goal! 21.14 (Bulldogs 10.6) Premiers!

2021 Grand Final Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs 3rd Quarter 19.58 Gawn → Kozzie (Caught Behind - CHF) ... ball spilled free → Fritsch → Snapped Point (Poster) 5.10 18.00 Petracca → Kozzie (Caught Behind - Right HFF) ... Bulldog mark then cleared 13.04 ANB → Scrambled Forward - Bulldogs clear ball out Not long after Bontempelli puts them 19 points in front! Concerned? ... read on 10.47 Brayshaw → Brown (Caught Behind - Left FP) ... Bulldogs Mark then cleared 09.22 Harmes → Fritsch (Front Position - Right FP) ... Mark → Goal! 6.10 08.36 Petracca → Gawn (Front Position - FF Area) ... spilled free → Fritsch (out the back) ... snapped Goal! 7.10 08.21 Petracca → Brown (Caught Behind - Right FP) ... slight legal nudge - Mark! → Goal! 8.10 05.40 Brayshaw → Into Space (Left FP) ... OOB 05.09 Brayshaw → Petracca (Loose ball get - Left HFF) ... Scramble → Bowie → Brayshaw (LEFT HFF) ... Mark → Goal! 9.10 03.28 Sparrow → Gawn (Front Position - FF Area) ... Rushed Behind 9.11 00.58 Brown → Pack (Left HFF) ... Petracca (out the back) (Kozzie Block) → GOAL!!! (of the season) 10.11 00.39 Sparrow → Goal! (From outside 50) ... shepherded through by TMac 11.11 00.24 Jackson → (Handpass) Oliver (CHF) ... kicks from 45 → Goal! 12.11 (Bulldogs 9.5) Bang Bang Bang!

I've had a good day so far (about time!) ... 2 winners & 4 x same race multis and I've got Yonce going into a couple Once Mr Mosaic was out I went with Yonce with 2 others in 2 later races. Yonce was probably overs at 2.50. Looks a decent type

Nice win DZ and very impressive by the sounds of it ... a blackbooker! Black type races ahead ... Matriarch Stakes on Super Saturday could be next up