binman

With all due respect 31 you clearly have not learned anything on demonland. Where there's smoke there's fire. Morris, and now barret have suggested he could find himself at another club. They are not going to just pluck that out if there's nothing to it. I suspect the subtext is curnow had issued am ultimatum - Harry or me. I suspect there might cultural issues. McKay wants out. Kennedy treated appallingly and wants our. Looking for a new high performance manager. Houston doesn't want to go there Question marks over Voss's future. Is he the one? Where there's smoke.

Can't eat value. Didn't lay off. Regretted it 10 minutes into the game. Luckily had a saver on the lions to win by +39 @ 7.50 which at least meant i didn't lose.

Let's hope there's another non coincidence next year - as in what happened the year after we last missed finals!

Absolutely. No coincidence of course that our two most successful years under goody, 2018 and 2021, directly correlate to seasons with a great run with injury Or that our two least successful seasons, 2019 and this year correlate with a wretched run with injury.

Agree we weren't far off. But with our woeful preseason, injuries, so many senior players clearly carrying injuries, and a third of the team kids running out of puff even I doubt we had the wherewithal to do win a flag this year. Hard not think it was a blessing in disguise missing finals - particularly if we land a gun at pick 5. On injuries, the Swans have been blessed this season - very much like we were in 2021. And anyone who doubts the impact of losing say tracc only need to see the influence of heeney in the finals. The swans almost certainly lose week one if not for heeney. They lose that game and they are no monties to even make the GF (ironically they would have played the lions).

None of which is to say it's not disappointing we haven't won another flag thus far. I'll go to my grave thinking we left one on the table in 2023. But a key point is the era is not over. We are in good shape to win another in the next few years. The Cats, swans and lions have a model that rejects the idea of bottoming out and stocking up on pick ones, but rather staying in contention over a long period of time. It is exactly that model that goody said he aimed to implement at the dees in his very first presser after being announced as senior coach. And he has been good to his word.

If you took a poll on demonland about the relative strength of our list compared to the swans, pies, lions, cats and perhaps even the blues in 'recent years' (so, for the sake of argument lets say the last five years) I suspect, when the outliers are removed the median response would be at best the strength of our list is equal to those clubs. And i think the consensus would be that all those clubs lists, with the possible exception of the blues, were 'easily good enough to win at least one more flag over recent years'. None have. On the weekend the swans or lions will win their first flag in recent years, meaning those five clubs, all with lists good enough to win flags have won the grand total of three in 'recent years'. And none more than one. Which just reinforces Smokey's point about the difficulty of winning a flag, and how much had to go right to do so. And it refutes the argument 'we have underachieved by not taking advantage of our position and the relative weakness of the rest of the comp'. In fact, in the 10 years since the hawks won the last flag of their threepeat, the ONLY club that has taken 'advantage' of the strength of their list is the tigers with their 3 flags. No other club in those ten years has won more than one flag (Dogs in 2016, Eagles in 2018, Dees in 2021, Cats in 2022, Pies in 2023 and swans or lions in 2024).

Thanks wheelo. I reckon you've got it right. In terms of a Brownlow bet, hate to say it, but even at 2.75 Daicos is value. Yes they didn't win as many games as teams with others in contention (cripps, neale, bont) but he doesn't have as many people taking votes from him. And his skills stand out and are right under the noses of the umps. He's my bet.

......and us pick 5.

It's our collective fault - angst is always a winner for the media. It's ever been thus - even before algorithms.

You won't be surprised I differ in my assessment of nibblas ability - he finished sixth in the bluey last year, and I'm guessing will be top 5, perhaps even top 3 this year. And if the pies want a first rounder for noble, late 30s for nibbla is way overs. Be that at as it may, I completely agree with you he's worth what the market says he's worth. Simple as that. If that's pick 25 then so be it (by the by, in a vacuum, as highly as I rate nibbla, I would peg him at 20-25, so 25 is pretty fair). It's the same with trading players into the club, both in terms of what draft pick we're prepared to give up and what salary we offer. Which is why I find the annual debate about the 'worth' of players all a bit silly.

The relative form of the lions, cats and swans away from their respective home grounds isn't particularly relevant in terms of negating the fact, as evidenced by their win loss ratio over say the last 10 seasons, that all three clubs enjoy a clear home ground advantage. But for the sake of argument, let's say it is relevant. All three clubs' records away from home would statistically be way worse than their records at home. That's to say, relative to their form at home they struggle playing away. Which supports not negates the argument they have a home ground advantage. Further, im guessing that two of the three clubs, and perhaps all three (not sure about the swans), despite being finalists most years, are underwater (ie less than 50%) in terms of win loss ratio at the g in the last decade. Take the cats. Up until their flag in 2022 they had made finals in multiple years, and made the gf in 2020, yet could not win a flag. It was widely discussed that a potential factor in going all the way was not being able to translate the method they used at KP to the more spacious MCG.

Fair point about playing away, at least for the swans and lions, but more about the travel involved than playing at less idiosyncratic grounds. (By the by, i don't think its a coincidence that since Kardinia park has become less idiosyncratic with the stands reducing the impact of the prevailing wind, the cats record has not been as good there). As I said, I rate all three coaches very highly. And I 100% agree all three clubs are super well run - which by the by is a huge benefit all three coaches enjoy, and arguably goody doesn't (making his very impressive record even more meritorious). But the home ground record of all three clubs in the period Fagan, Scott and longmire have coached means all three start each season with a solid block of likely wins (again particularly fagan as the lions have won something crazy like 90% of their home games since he has been coach). And therefore all three clubs are excellent chance of making finals each year.

Don't get me wrong, i think all three are excellent coaches, but in terms of assessing the coaching records of Fagan, Scott and Longmire, i think a relevant data point to consider is their home grounds. The GABBA, Taxpayer Park and the SCG are strange grounds in terms of dimensions, and in the case of the GABBA also prevailing conditions (the lions play almost all of their games up there at night, when it is frequently humid and slippery). As evidenced by their respective home ground records, particularly that of the lions, the Lions, Cats and Swans, unsurprisingly, play well at home and have very real home ground advantage. That advantage puts all three clubs in the box seat to at least make finals every year and the sustained success of all three clubs in terms of making finals is not surprising.

It would be the smart play. The lions are currently 2.12, which I reckon is about right. The disadvantage the lions face is the extra game the've had to play, well that and losing their ruck. But they have run out the last two games very impressively. And their strategy to chip kick the cats to frustration, whilst helped by the cats clearly flagging, could not have been possible if they weren't well and truly in great condition. They have clearly timed their high performance program very well.

I backed the swans to win the flag after their 112 point thumping by Port. My only stress about the GF is whether to lay off and back the lions- and still make a healthy profit if they win.

You're out on this topic? Seriously WTF are you on about? You are talking about a completely different topic (who leaked to Morris ) to the one i was talking about (the need to think critically and not but into a pat narrative). You are arguing with yourself. I have no interest in that discussion. I think he leaked, you think it was the club. As i made clear, who leaked makes no difference to the argument i was making. I responded to your question if i had any evidence Tracc had leaked, said no and noted it was supposition on my part (as is of course the same for you with you version of who leaked) I wish i hadn't (and won't make that mistake again) as you have a narrative, an agenda, an axe to grind (poor, misunderstood tracc - lets all leave him alone) that you are trying to wedge into a completely different discussion - And i'd add it was discussion i didn't ask for your feedback on. Its forum, so of course happy to discuss and get feedback. But not happy with someone getting stuck into me and misconstruing my comments - particularly galling given you didn't even bother fully read my post such was your need to defend poor little Christian from slings and arrows. Its ironic actually, because i have no enmity toward tracc - i think he has been immature and frankly incredibly naïve but it has played out exactly predicted it would And you are not sorry for having a shot at me? As i suspected sorry, not sorry. You think its ok to have shot at someone who post something you disagree with - noted. By the by, on your topic of choice, your rationale for it not being Tracc, but rather some mysterious person, or people, from the club is, to say the least, unconvincing. And completely fails the Occam's razor test. One example. Leaving aside the strange use of the word fact, the "fact that Morris/Barrett stated people inside the club leaked critical parts of the story" could hardly be a less compelling point to support your argument. It may be a fact they said that, but you'd be hard pressed to name two media people I'm less likely to believe, or two media people i thinks are more likely to make stuff up. But to be clear, i have no interest in debating wit you who leaked to Morris. I could care less to be honest. So it works for both us that you're out on this topic.

Well, to be honest that feels like a sorry...but. Next time you decide you want to vent about one of my long spiels because they make you irate, go to the effort of reading it to the end Or don't- but don't have a shot at me. Ironically, you perfectly made my central point: Rather than simply accepting Morris’s narrative (WHOEVER FED IT TO HIM) at face value, people should consider the full range of agreed facts and then decide what they think is going on (and I'd add not go off half cocked).

Sorry, don't follow at all, and clearly you haven't followed me either. Of course there are agreed facts. I listed several such examples For example it is an agreed FACT that at least 10 players have resigned with the club in the last 3 months. I didn't 'decide' that was a fact. It is a fact. As for the source of the leak not making a difference, you have clearly misunderstood me, as evidenced by your spiel about it which reads as if you are replying to an unrelated post. I mean, I think i know whether the source of the leak was relevant to the point I WAS MAKING. But whatevs.

Yep, 100% convinced. But whether it came from tracc, or from another MFC employee my point remains the same - whilst that narrative may have some veracity, in sorting the wheat from the chaff, people would do well to also consider the agreed facts, such as those that i noted, rather than just swallowing the Morris narrative whole.

I'm assuming it was, but no I have no evidence tracc (directly, or more likely via a surrogate) fed the story to Morris. Supposition on my part.

Ta. Admittedly, 'bleeding players' was perhaps a bit Tom Morris.

I didn't say the tigers were bleeding players due the culture reasons, or any reason. Ditto noble leaving the pies. I just stated a fact - not my opinion. And the relevant fact is we have one best 22 player advising the club he wants to leave, whereas, say the tigers have multiple such players (and by the by, there is very little upside for a club in a rebuild losing three of their best 5 players in rioli, Bolton and Baker, all at the peak part of their career. It would have been the equivalent of gawn, tracc and Oliver walking out on the dees in 2017). It's relevant because it speaks to stability and contradicts the narrative of a club in crisis. The only facts in Morris’s initial reporting was trac was unhappy. And even they is open to be questioned because Morris was 'backgrounded' by tracc rather than him having the courage of his convictions and publicly standing behind his concerns, for example with a proper interview.

The 'tracc fiasco'? Honestly, I've never seen so many people sucked into one persons (ie tracc) desired narrative so unquestionably (outside of America or course). What exactly is the tracc fiasco? Tracc fed Morris' his laundry list of complaints, which, combined with inferences people have made from the 'reporting' can be boiled down to, what: - Tracc unhappy with how the club dealt with him post injury - Tracc unhappy the club not more successful - Tracc unhappy being at a club with fewer supporters than the 'big' clubs - Tracc unhappy with the 'culture' at the club (with the inference widely accepted that translates to a party culture) - Tracc unhappy with how clarry was 'handled", before and after his dramas - Tracc unhappy with the 'professionalism' of teamates Have I missed something? Notice the common theme - 'tracc unhappy'. Let's accept that that is how tracc genuinely feels. And let's accept that tracc clearly had an agenda in feeding Morris That's not the same as those issues being real. But of course, it doesn't mean they aren't either - to some degree or other. I can't stand Morris, but don't blame him writing a hit piece based on info tracc fed to him. He is merely feeding an insatiable demand for gossip, and seemingly for information that confirms many dees 'supporters' henny penny complaints. Morris is not a journalist, so has no interest in balance. But it would be great if people did some critical thinking, and rather than just drinking the tracc aid, balanced the 'feelings' of a disgruntled player with some cold, hard undisputed facts (ie not 'joining the dots', conjecture, feelings, opinions or vibes): - tracc didn't leave (and I have little doubt absolutely could have if he was prepared to go to any club - which if the culture was so bad he surely would have been) - unlike say the tigers, who are bleeding players, only one of our best 22 is leaving the club, for family reasons (unlike, say, noble who just wants out of the pies full stop) - off the top of my head at least 10 players have recommited to the club in the last THREE MONTHS - this included two first year, first round draft picks, in kolt and windsor, who had no need to do so for another two years - our president has stepped down

We might call such 'supporters' detractors. 'I've been a detractor of this one great club since the 70s. And i have been staunch in my criticism - disco blue jumpers, the stupidity of sacking Stan Alves, falling for the messiah complex with Barrassi, Vinny Cottagio, Crosswell, Balme as coach, David Cordner, whites board Wednesday, soft Watts, of course Gerard healy quit the club, Gutnick, Goodwin, - the list of our failings is endless!'