Dr. Gonzo

This picks "value" stuff is rubbish. It only counts for clubs bidding on academy or Father/Son picks. It's the equivalent of saying "Bugg + JKH + Kent = 1st rounder"

Then we'd at least have early draft picks

It's not in the AFL's rules per se, it's part of the CBA so really any changes should only occur every 5 years or so.

I just want a flag

No. Players become FA after 8 years service. If they are in the top 25% of paid players at their club they are RFA's. If not they are UFA's. After 10 years service everyone is an UFA's.

Come on, Hogan's not gonna walk out on us to the draft and leave us empty handed. People bring this up every year and it never happens.

No not next year. It is either 2020 or 2021 depending on whether my memory is correct or not. He was drafted in 2012 and was first on our senior list in 2014.

Freo will likely have a top 5 pick next year. Take that and their future 1st rounder would be much the same as what we will get this year.

That would be a great outcome if true. Freo are likely to still have a top 5 pick next year and Hogan would still have to be traded there (as you say he is not a FA although will be out of contract). Are you sure he isn't a RFA until 2021? My understanding for the last few years has been the year he spent with us but ineligible for the senior list counts as tenure towards his FA status. I remember the issue coming up a few years ago for one of the Suns/Giants pre-selections who were taken underage and spent a year with them before going on the senior list (Shiel, Cameron etc). Would be great if someone could clear this up, I don't want to spread false info but I am certain that was the AFL's position.

I'm not doubting them but I'd love to know how they are sure of his intentions before he's even met his manager? Maybe the club has spoken to him already and given him permission to tell Freo it's a goer? How do journos know what gets discussed in exit interviews? If there was nothing to this the club and/or Hogan would've come out to say something already. The fact there has been nada for 3 days says there's something cooking and he's gone it just needs to be worked out between the clubs.

You're right. It's probably closer to $6m.

It's not about wanting to trade him, it's about what we can get if he decides to leave.

He's not a FA next year but he will be out of contract.

2013 - Freeman and Scharenberg have had injuries but other than that the top 10 have all cemented themselves as AFL players. 2014 - McCartin has had a lot of scrutiny due to being pick 1 but has played well enough to be considered an AFL level player. Ahern I don't know much about, Cockatoo plays seniors when not injured. The rest are all AFL quality players. 2015 - Schache looks like a bust but is still young. The rest are all AFL quality players. 2016 - Not sure about some of the GC boys (Scrimshaw, Brodie, Bowes) but they've all played senior footy. McGrath, Taranto, McCluggage, Ainsworth, SPS all AFL level talent and still very young. 2017 - Some of these kids are still too young to make a call on - but Rayner, Brayshaw, Dow, Cerra, Stephenson have all played. The Saints picks may have missed (again too early to say) but their whole club is a shambles at the moment it wouldn't surprise me if they're recruiters are as well. Overall the draft (and in particular top 10/15 picks) are less of a lottery than they have been in the past. It's not a sure thing but the strike rate is vastly improved on top 10 picks, generally about 75-80% (as I said previously).

An article last week said Carlton were into him earlier this year to replace Andy McKay as the Head of Footy but they pinched Brad Lloyd (Matthew's brother) from Freo. Not sure if someone else is into him now but I wouldn't be surprised he's proved a good operator since shifting to a FD role about 5 years ago.

Recruiters look for different things when drafting. What our recruiters previously looked for were not qualities that would necessarily translate to senior footy. I agree the draft is a bit of a lottery. That's why I would want us to flip any draft picks we might get for known quantities. But I also think our current recruiting team are streets ahead of what we've had previously. They're not just hitting on top 10 picks, they're hitting on picks in the 50's. I also think top 10 picks, while not a home run, are closer to 75-80% chance of hitting than busting and that probability has improved over recent years with a greater investment in drafting/recruiting and better environments for development.

It was, but how much of that was because he was injured. A foot injury shouldn't see a player like him miss regulation marks which he did against Port, Geelong & Adelaide. He does have a tendency to go missing when we need him but in a lot of those games out mids got shut out too. He also has the capacity to kick a big bag (6-8 goals these days) TMac probably the only other on our list to have that in him at this stage but I think 5 is his biggest haul.

JT, JM & TV have runs on the board though. Salem, Brayshaw, Petracca, Oliver, Weideman - none would be considered busts.

We can try but I doubt we'll be getting Cerra. Players don't usually end up parts of these deals, it's usually player for picks which may be on traded for another player. Freo giving up Cerra for Hogan would be cutting off the nose to spite the face especially considering they're already losing Neale. We think we've got the whip hand cos he's contracted, they'll think they've got the whip hand cos he's agreed to move. Our FD doesn't usually stuff around making ambit claims, we generally come to the table with a fair offer.

What if we kept pick 5 and traded next year's first for May?

An exchange that saw us lose Hogan and gain May would be terrible and terrible from a PR perspective as well. If we can score May plus a top 10 pick it would be more palatable

You listed a bunch of key forwards and stayed they were all on a mil. They're not, Boyd and Buddy are but they were overpaid to get them to move. Now youre just further speculating, it's not based on reality. https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/09/26/how-this-blockbuster-trade-could-see-melbourne-secure-may/ “They’ve already had one captain leave in Tom Lynch - who will be joining Richmond on a six or seven-year deal at just under one million dollars a season." You're overestimating player salaries.

Yeah the silence is deafening

Maybe in a few years, but Weideman is not commanding a million bucks this time next year, I don't care how well he plays. Btw Roughead, Riewoldt, Kennedy, Patton, Cameron are not on a million and Boyd was severely overpaid.

Who cares it's all fugazi. Didn't hurt Hawks in 2013. Didn't hurt Tigers last year. Won't impact the teams performance so who cares?