Little Goffy

I don't rate Smith's brain enough to picture him in the very demanding role Fritsch plays. I would say his best option is as a defensive forward tightly staying with the Tom Stewart / Lever / Aliir / Andrews types to prevent them from intercepting and rebounding too easily. With his athleticism he can create the occasional opportunity to turn the tables completely, but left to be a 'normal' tall forward he become the player that opponents can predict and know when to zone off from, and that's no help to us.

Also, Gawn is actually having a respectable year, just not All-Australian level. I agree that he has had some games of very uncertain marking efforts and he also isn't being used as effectively as he should be to get to important positions. I have my theory for how they would work best (Gawn mostly a kick behind play or receiving the escape kick from defence, Grundy playing as a half-forward link option, each sticking to a loose area of control to minimise the low-value running, and each only occasionally slipping forward to mix things up for a while) but I'm not tearing my hair out about it just yet because Gawn and Grundy are both smart players and will not be sitting passively on the obvious problem.

56 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Can they play footy.

Trouble is fitting them under the salary cap.

10, 3 and 9 in the last three games is a pretty phenomenonal rating for Viney.

Given he has a well-earned reputation for rising to big occasions, I suspect he at least is one player on our list acutely aware of what has been at stake these last few games.

Unfortunately I think there's a couple of guys who are content 'doing their thing' rather than really pushing that extra level. 

For example, Nibbler's pangolin impression has me suspecting that he's happy with doing that much and geting the breakeven stoppage; doesn't feel the need to actually beat his opponent.

I also suspect Hunter, despite being very busy and reasonably good overall, is a bit too content to do his favourite tricky trick with the bounce handballs without really worrying too much about whether it is the best option for both reward or risk.

That's a digression, but emphasises the point that really, everyone needs to be more Viney.

15 hours ago, Redleg said:

 

Would have preferred the camel spit rather than watching the Dees today.

And the camels always hit what they aim at.

I'm getting a strange echo of the vibe of July 2018. "We were so good, so recently, so where is it now?"

 In 2023 there is a longer lead-in of expectations but a similar feeling that we are stumbling.

But... wait... this is also how July felt in 2021 with the winter slump of two wins, one embarrassing draw and three losses.

Anyway, with the loss to GWS we are now clearly out of contention for top two, and will be playing a classic '8 point' game next week to keep hold of our spot in the the top 4.  Brisbane the next week is an important test.

Two weeks from now;

Best case; win games against 5th and 3rd, be at least a game clear inside the top 4, and revitalise our season with a relatively easy minimum-travel draw to finish the H&A season.

Worst case; lose both and we're probably clinging onto 8th spot by percentage only, and even then thanks only to the Bombers playing the Crows then the Cats.

Well, Van Rooyen in would have to be the most obvious change since Chris Judd played a WAFL game.

Smith has had four games in a month and produced one pretty good and one okay-ish, but clearly isn't delivering what we need and is the obvious out for Van Rooyen.

I'm a patient man but Nibbler lost me with the sheer number of times he took the ball and happily balled up in a tackle and let the play become a stoppage. He was like a pangolin out there and it cost us so much momentum so many times.

Harmes is fighting to restart his career but he needs to be doing that at VFL level until he's got some form on the board.

Melksham has one more game (currently on 99 for Demons) to play for us to become entitled to his successful sperm, and I can't see any other reason to have him out there again.

Like I said, I'm a patient man and still think Chandler can turn things back to his early season quality.

My thoughts on changes:

Smith out, Van Rooyen in is obvious.

Nibbler out, Woey in.

Harmes out, Jordon in.

Melksham sub out, Moniz-Wakefield sub in.

Obviously conditional on the status of Oliver and Fritsch.

Bit late but I've had time to digest;

6. Viney. Obviously.

5. May.

4. Brayshaw. Continuous involvement and reasonable effectiveness. Gave sheer weight of competent effort in a wet game.

3. Petracca. Would be higher except 0.4 is just... game losing.

2. Bowey. Whenever he gets it our situation improves a little.

1. Petty. As a token for the way the tall defenders handled the conditions and held their roles very well, and I think Petty being back in defence really helps that, -particularly gets the most out of Lever.

1 minute ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Shame we don't get a replay of that from Roo. Great play.

We should draft the younger Fritsch and the younger Van Rooyen and see if we can duplicate our forward lines at AFL/VFL level for a while. :D

1 minute ago, Little Goffy said:

Van Rooyen is a beautiful set shot kick. Just smooth every time.

Lol, not so bad with the gather and around the body snap, either.

Van Rooyen is a beautiful set shot kick. Just smooth every time.

Side note; are we the goodies?

Weidemann was a source of a lot of contention, frustration and the occasional burst of open anger on here, but it was mostly directed at each other on the forum - generally there was a consensus that he was a good human being with limitations as a top-level Australian footballer.

But.. Essendon fans... so much bile directed at their own player. It's a little bit horrific.

And this isn't the only comparison - back in the day I had Essendon supporting friends when Melksham was with them and both they are some of their friends were absolutely unhinged about him - every clanger was aprompt for open "[censored] you, Melksham, you [censored]". It's not as if he suddenly stopped being a sometimes frustrating player when he moved to us, but we at least have some restraint.

I mean, the abuse aimed at Weidemann in the last 24hrs makes Picket Fence v Cale Morton look mild mannered!

19 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

We should also ban car ads. People die driving. 

17 hours ago, Deebymistake said:

On that logic we also need to ban procreation because people die during childbirth.  

15 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Exactly. 

For a moment E.T. I thought you thought you were actually making a point, so I'm glad to see you were just  being silly!

These issues can get awkward because there really are some strange people out there who really think sports betting has a useful or positive side which needs to be considered and protected, like driving or... childbirth? Yes, obviously that is just being silly.

Hmm, to climb back up to second over Port we would need to first beat GWS on sunday, obviously, and then it would be a case of picking up 3 wins in the remaining 8 games.

It is plausible to think that Port could have a few stumbles late - Freo in Perth, Cats in Geelong, the return match against the Crows, and of course their remaining game against the Magpies. Stranger things have happened than a team on a long winning streak then becoming a very up and down for several rounds. As we might recall...

Still, even if Port only manage 5-3 for the remaining eight rounds, we would need to clean sweep from here to overtake them.

Of course, it is also possible that Collingwood will finally run out of momentum. They've only played one game against a top-8 side in the last seven rounds, and they lost that one. They'll be playing against the Dogs, Dockers, Port, Lions, Cats and Bombers to round out the season, with only the Blues and Hawks as low-rated opponents.

I mean, that would obviously be the sweetest finish to the home and away rounds - Collingwood lose to the Bombers in the final round and then both ourselves and Port go ahead of them. Which would also mean a satisfyingly bitter Melbourne V Collingwood qualifying final just for a laugh.

Anyway, let's clean sweep the rest of the season and figure it out from there. 😉

1 hour ago, Roost it far said:

We’ll roll them like the Pies rolled the suns

Do you want to temp the wrath the thing atop the high place!??!?

5 hours ago, Kick_It_To_Pickett said:

Geeez, the Unicorn has had a stinker 🦄 

Would in the three worst games of his career.

Played 80% time on ground, too,  so it isn't as if he was playing as an occasional backup.

I didn't see the game directly, but by the numbers is looked like Sean Darcy rucked solo against English and a bit of Lobb. Is it as simply as Jackson was played forward and this week it just didn't happen for him?

Meanhile, Weideman just missed an easy and important set shot for us. While playing for Essendon, but you know what I mean!

I'm mildly annoyed because this round was one of those 'stars align' possibilities where if all the results went the right way our two picks from Freo could have improved three places. But by the time Richmond finished their nose-dive and the Swans and Cats both turned their percentage advantage to a moot point, it is all looking average.

It's fine, but also, come on Doggies!

Plus, Freo still have a very tough fixture to finish the season so there's still plenty of hope.

Also, after close investigation I can confirm that Luke Jackson stole Kade Chandler's mojo. Chandler was gunning it up to round 8 while Jackson was very flat, and then from exactly round 8 on Chandler has been struggling to hit the scoreboard while Jackson has been going berserk.

Hopefully Jackson's slow start today bodes well for Chandler tomorrow.

10 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Apparently waylaid in Coober Pedy Mr Leg

Hope he isn't thinking of letting any geologists drive the Bentley.

They're often hammered and stoned.

A quick guide just in case things get out of hand.

6 hours ago, Trisul said:

70% of a barrel of oil goes to products other than fuel. Good luck living a modern life without them.

 

Sure thing Cathy.

Read what I said.  Nowhere do I mention these products being made from burning oil for energy.  Stop projecting your frustrated inability to comprehend information outside your acceptable messaging as other peoples deficiencies.

By fuel, I was referring to gasoline.  Which if you'd bothered to research prior to your 'fact-check' you would have realised. Estimates there range from 30-40%. 

I was not responding to pricing, but the elimination of fossil fuel use.  

Seriously, gate-keep elsewhere like Facebook.   

 

You claimed that by ending the consumption of oil for fuel, it would eliminate the availability of the other oil-derived products. The only possibly way that could be true was if somehow the burning-for-energy was a part of it. By asking if you thought that was the case I wasn't 'failing to comprehend' you, I was mocking you.

And right there now you are trying on the old 'I was only referring to gasoline' like you meant it and as if you don't look like an absolute potato for not recognising that diesel and jet fuel are, indeed, fuel.

And then you are doubling down on the 'I am referring to the elimination of fossil fuel use' as something that will eliminate the non-fuel products of oil, because somehow you still haven't grasped that fossil fuel use is not the same as the petrochemical manufacturing supply chain.

Just stop, okay.

A reduction in the use of oil-based fuels (which comprises 70% of consumption of oil) will increase the availability of non-fuel petrochemical products.

It's a pretty straight-forward set of facts.

17 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Hopefully the biggest outcome is less revenue footy media meaning less content.

That would be a great result.

Gasp! Do you think it is possible that they might have to cut BT and replace him with a mere professional?

Will Robbo be reduced to regular whiskey chasers instead of Glengoolie Blue?

On 6/28/2023 at 3:16 PM, Trisul said:

70% of a barrel of oil goes to products other than fuel.  Good luck living a modern life without them.

So your saying that these other products are produced in the process of burning the oil for energy?

Sharpen up.

Reduced demand for fuel oil will reduce the price of oil as a petrochemical/hydrocarbon input. So, yeah, it is good luck for all of us who use those products because the transition to renewable energy will make them all cheaper.

Also, you've got your figure backwards; 70% is used for fuel.

Seriously, sharpen up.

19 hours ago, Demonstone said:

Speaking of WCE key forwards, spare a thought for mid-season draftee Ryan Maric who is now the holder of an unenviable record after his first two games have resulted in a combined losing margin of 293 points.

The previous record of 288 was set in1991 by Fitzroy player Brenton Klaebe (no, me neither).

Well, at least West Coast can now say they've identified who is the cause of their problems.

In SEN's system, Petracca's rating of 44.1 includes ten points for inside 50s, 6 for goal assists, and 17 for score involvements. So, 33 out of his 44 points is coming from what are basically attacking midfield efforts. It does reflect that he is the most effective attacking midfielder in the game, but it doesn't turn him into a forward.

Pickett's rating reflects the fact that he is a small forward doing his all-round job extremely well and people need to get all the way off his back. Seriously, it is 2023 and there are still people who think small forwards have failed if one in three of their games don't sparkle on the stat sheet.

Bailey Fritsch is the best medium forward in the game.

The issue is that Curnow, Lewis, Cameron, Walker, Finlayson, and Daniher are the bulk of the top ratings, and in the old baseball term, their 'value above replacement' is pretty significant if their replacements are Van Rooyen and Smith.

Looking at the same ratings process for Tom McDonald and Ben Brown in 2021, you (roughly) get;

McDonald - 36

Brown - 39

They are both a level outside the top-20 group, but that's two key position talls making a very good contribution.

In contrast, Van Rooyen is going basically solo as a tall forward - our only player over 190cm to kick more than ten goals so far this season. His rating;

Van Rooyen - 30

He's a very respectable young forward, but we are 'missing' about 45 points worth of tall forward contribution compared to our own 2021 team, and the key forwards were not the superstars of that team.

So, there's your answer!

39 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

D, Did you attend the supporter's club function last week?

I edited your comment because I just can't resist a 'GWS have no fans' joke.

You can make a case that he is genuinely half the player he was back in 2018.

FootyWire comparison - Gaff 2023 vs 2018

Even that set of stats mask how bad things have gone for him because his form really, profoundly, dropped from round 7 on.

Impressive effort by the OP to use a '5 most improved' list to include three separate digs at the coach.

Anyway, our most improved;

Rivers - from a respectable starting point to a serious player.

Chandler - from question mark to exclamation mark, just needs to recalibrate his radar back to the early season level.

Salem - not sure it counts when he's already shown it in a grand final, but the return to form is a big deal.

A few others like Bowey, Van Rooyen, and of course McVee seem more like 'the kids are going along nicely' than any specific or surprising improvement. I'd also say that Viney reached his new level during a stellar mid-season period last year and has simply carried on with it.

I don't see the alleged improvement from Sparrow. I think he's just pushing along at a level, which is legitimate AFL level but not outstanding.

Just quietly, I think Tomlinson should get a mention among the improvers. Fingers crossed he re-establishes himself in the team after basically two seasons of injury and post-injury poor form.