Fat Tony

I’m convinced the real benefit of better facilities is in recruiting players from other clubs. Why do you need the weights room and pool right next to the football ground?

Hibberd and Joel Smith are our best options as deep small defenders, with Rivers the next cab in line. Howes is not strong enough to play on players like Papley, Elliot, Stengle, Cameron or Dusty. Howes could eventually be a high half back but this seems unlikely this year we have Salem, Brayshaw, Rivers and Bowey competing for those roles. Jordon might also need to compete there now given we have added Hunter to the list. I think Howes is more likely to compete against ANB as a high half forward and even then I think he is too slight. Deakyn Smith and McVee are other options as deep defenders.

I think the old system meant that clubs needed to use their next pick rather than points.

A premiership is the pass mark at this stage given our list, but we will also need a lot of luck to win the flag. The pass mark could be lowered if we suffer key injuries.

Will the games be on TV?

I hope we swap the wingers so they play with their preferred foot on the boundary side. Langdon kicked out on the full a lot last season on his left foot.

Great analysis. I wouldn't have Salem as a lock. Bowey, Brayshaw and Rivers are all stiff competition as high half backs. Hunter is likely but not a lock IMO. He is an upgrade if he can be his best, but his games played and numbers were down last year. Let's see how he fits before calling him a lock. ANB is not a lock for mine. He needs to be better in front of goal. Sparrow is likely given he has greater versatility than others to play midfield and forward. Harmes is also probably likely also, although the addition of Hunter makes it harder for Jordon and Harmes this year. Howes still looks to slight for me to be truly contending. I'm a fan of his potential, but round 1 seems unlikely. I see Laurie as a real longshot. Of the Could Elevate grouping, I think Turner is the most likely and if he takes a step, it could see Petty pushed forward. Fat Tony's Groupings Locks (12): May, Petracca, Grundy, Viney, Lever, Brayshaw, Gawn, Oliver, Langdon, Fritsch, Petty, Pickett Likely (4): Salem, Hunter, ANB, Sparrow Contending (11): JVR, Harmes, Spargo, Hibberd, Bowey, Jordon, Rivers, TMac, J.Smith, , Chandler, Brown Could elevate (4): Woewodin, McVee, D.Turner, Howes Break Glass (4): Melksham, Schache, Tomlinson, Dunstan Developing (8): Laurie, Jefferson, Adams, Verrall, D.Smith, Sestan, Faris-White, AMW

Jibbers?

It still looks to me like our forward line is going to be an issue. We will win games because our midfield and defence are so good but I want to see Petty tried forward early in the year. The training reports on Howes and Wowoedin are encouraging but it's unlikely they will be able to force their way in. Howes needs to put on some muscle and still looks a bit slight. Wowoedin is competing against absolute A-Graders and players like Salem, Jordon, Harmes, Sparrow, Dunstan and Hunter.

Joel Smith, Hibberd and Rivers at a pinch could play the role. I would like to see Bowey tried as a high half forward competing against ANB if he can’t crack it past Salem and Brayshaw as high half backs.

People think because Laurie was a first round pick that he is likely to make it. But they ignore the fact that he averaged 8.3 disposals, 2 tackles and kicked just 1 goal in the VFL finals series (3 games). Sure he is a decent skilled player but he needs to average 23-25 per game at VFL level to be in the picture.

I still think there are a lot of question marks about our forward mix. Our KPFs are either B graders or unproven. Neither Gawn or Grundy have proven to be great forwards. We hope Van Rooyen is the answer. Petty could be a good forward. Jefferson is just a kid.

The only locks of our key position players will be May, Lever and Petty (either in defence or attack). I think our forward line will depend on how we use Gawn and Grundy. I think one of the rucks will need to play 60% game time as a deep forward. Neither is mobile enough to play as a midfielder and any other solution will mess up the rotations. I hope Petty is given more than 5 minutes of the season up forward to see what he can do. He could be our Tom Lynch. Disco Turner and Van Rooyen look likely but it is a big jump from VFL to AFL. I think both have a good chance this year and how they fair will impact which end Petty plays. TMac and Brown are near the end of their careers. I think TMac has more top level footy in him because he is more mobile and fits better alongside Gawn or Grundy at full forward. Casey will be very strong if we have no injuries.

https://themongrelpunt.com/afl-season-2023/2023/01/08/the-big-questions-melbourne-2023-season-preview/

Someone put this in front of Goody and get Petty forward!

I think they will both play 50% ruck and 35% forward.

Howes really moves well and has good AFL attributes (length and dexterity). He obviously needs a bit of muscle (which will come) and he also needs to be a bit more desperate in the contest. There was a bit of Jack Watts about his game when he returned from injury late last year.

Who does he look like? What key defender does he remind you of?

One of Grundy or Gawn needs to play forward. Both will play 80%+ game time which means they will be on the ground together 60% of the game. There is no there option unless we are willing to play with a 5-man forward line or Grundy plays as a ruck rover.

True, but we did get Queens Birthday every year for a long period. And the 80s away strip we have now is fantastic.

Looking forward to the Bombers instalment. It’s a disgrace but I think it often works in our favour as an extra ‘home’ game at the MCG.

We play Perth better than the MCG! My query was more about trying to understand why rather than being too worried about it.

But why not alternate the Eagles and Dockers?

I understand why we get sent to Cat park every year due to our lack of supporters and commercial contracts etc but is there a reason we always play WCE in Perth and the Dockers as a home game?

Nah. We will be underdogs right now. Gamble responsibly 58.